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Hmm . . .

 

But just to be on the safe side, I'll think I'll play safe and have a hedgie in place like the last time the Fed kneed us where it hurts with the 75bp cut instead of the 100 everyone was expecting. If, for whatever reason, the Fed were to sling another 25bp on the funds rate, gold would see something of a dip . . .

With the DOW staring into the abyss?

 

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Hi Errol,

 

Where do you get your eagles from as goldline and ATS always seem to be out of them. I havnt bought anything from coininvest before, always been put off as they are not a BNTA member.

 

 

What is the BNTA?

I've just opened a coininvest account and am ready to buy. Do I need to do more research?

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I was considering these a while back, until I came across the following article which kind of put me off... a kind of reality check about the pitfalls of trying to be too greedy (well, that and my lower understanding and familiarity of these methods).

 

Thanks for the info. I decided against it in the end I may set up a long spreadbetting position instead and put I smaller amount into the ETF to spread my money round abit. As its only a short term position I can't justify the fees of buying twice the amount through bullionvault Goldmoney etc and I didn't really want to have a majority of my net worth in ETFs incase something went wrong with the company running it even though I think it is unlikely.

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What is the BNTA?

I've just opened a coininvest account and am ready to buy. Do I need to do more research?

 

British Numismatic Trade Association

The British Numismatic Trade Association (BNTA) was founded in 1973 after a number of meetings among senior members of the coin trade following the introduction of V.A.T. (Value Added Tax). The special arrangements pressed for by members of the antiques trade generally were successfully introduced. Dealers then needed more effective methods of stock control - a discipline which in turn made the availability of coins more easily publicised.

 

The BNTA has been an effective voice in the fight against forgery, another topic of major concern particularly in the early 1970's, and in establishing standards in the domestic coin trade. Members receive early warning notices of counterfeit coins and stolen property.

 

http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/bntamember.html

 

I usually buy in person from a BNTA member shop, but it is a little bit more expensive. I have not heard of any problems with coininvest so I would feel quite safe buying from them now I have more experience with bullion coins.

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listen to this from minute 4:00 to 10:00:

http://www.tfnn.com/tog/TOG061208.mp3

 

he says the Irish will decide the price of currencies, gold and oil tomorrow. Looks like a BOMB!

I was searching on my forex calendars and cant see any event firday afternoon. Where can I get analysis about this? Nobody talks about this in any place. Anyone can comment on the subject? I want to estimate the impact of this in pips, and specialy how low or high gold can go.

 

Thanks!

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he says the Irish will decide the price of currencies, gold and oil tomorrow. Looks like a BOMB!

I was searching on my forex calendars and cant see any event firday afternoon. Where can I get analysis about this? Nobody talks about this in any place. Anyone can comment on the subject? I want to estimate the impact of this in pips, and specialy how low or high gold can go.

 

I haven't listened to the podcast but I can only assume it refers to the Irish referendum to ratify the treaty of Lisbon, which took place yesterday (Thursday) - presumably the result will be known on Friday. I would be interested in what this guy thinks the result will mean for the Euro->USD->GOLD?

 

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Anyone can comment on the subject?

"

FF Alert Initial release time moved forward by 1 day as the outcome will be announced the day after the vote takes place;

Description Ireland will vote on a referendum to accept or reject the European Union's Lisbon Treaty. The outcome of the vote will determine whether or not the treaty will go into effect for the entire European Union."

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=91412

http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/1213287507.82

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7449313.stm

 

what if Bernanke already knows irish will vote against? So knowing this he speaks on public against any fundamentals about streightening dollar and tomorrow after voting, without doing anything he just gets credit as euro falls, dollar jumps oil and gold tanks ???? And the dollar rally madly continues ..... what about this scenario ??

 

"Irish polls closed at 2200 (2100 GMT) and counting starts on Friday morning, with the result expected soon after 1530 (1430 GMT)."

 

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It seems odd that the votes are not counted until the next day. I have been in charge of a polling staion a couple of times in the UK and the votes are counted immediately after the polling stations are closed and often goes on through the night and into the next day if recounts are necessary. What about the security and integrity of the ballot boxes overnight?

 

 

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With the DOW staring into the abyss?

 

Point taken but can anyone guarantee that gold wouldn't sell off if the Fed did raise by 25bp ?

 

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It seems odd that the votes are not counted until the next day. I have been in charge of a polling staion a couple of times in the UK and the votes are counted immediately after the polling stations are closed and often goes on through the night and into the next day if recounts are necessary. What about the security and integrity of the ballot boxes overnight?

 

They will be secured at the count centre. A similar proceedure occurs in the UK for the European Parliamentary Election. The UK votes on a Thursday but the count only takes place on Sunday, in-line with the rest of the EU (who traditionally vote on a Sunday).

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It seems odd that the votes are not counted until the next day. I have been in charge of a polling staion a couple of times in the UK and the votes are counted immediately after the polling stations are closed and often goes on through the night and into the next day if recounts are necessary. What about the security and integrity of the ballot boxes overnight?

 

This is standard for Irish election and referendum counts. The sealed ballot boxes are brought to the constituency count centres and secured by the police and constituency returning officers overnight. I have never heard anyone question the integrity of the process.

 

Irish elections are done on a proportional representation basis with a single transferrable vote. The count process takes considerably longer that in the UK's first past the post voting system and it would not be possible to complete it overnight. It usually takes several days to get a final national result.

 

The referendum is a simple Yes/No vote, but the count still doesn't start until the following morning. I guess if individual politicians' careers depended on the outcome there might be more urgency about it! :P

 

FWIW, I voted No and my wife voted Yes. Take what you want from that! The official result is expected around teatime today (Fri). There were no exit polls so there is no early indication of the outcome although it's expected to be close either way. An unofficial "tally" of votes by campaign workers from both sides as the boxes are opened will give some indication mid-morning. At present the only straw in the wind is that Paddy Power the bookmakers have already paid out on a "Yes" majority vote - I don't know what information they have that everyone else doesn't.

 

Update: RTÉ radio reports (10:43am) early tallies indicate the vote will be roughly 60%/40% against the treaty.

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Looks like the US gold bashers are up early today...... maybe Frizzers' prediction of another go at 850 is about to come true.

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Looks like the US gold bashers are up early today...... maybe Frizzers' prediction of another go at 850 is about to come true.

Hit (the 200dma) and run?

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I was considering these a while back, until I came across the following article which kind of put me off... a kind of reality check about the pitfalls of trying to be too greedy (well, that and my lower understanding and familiarity of these methods).

 

Thanks for the info. I decided against it in the end I may set up a long spreadbetting position instead and put I smaller amount into the ETF to spread my money round abit. As its only a short term position I can't justify the fees of buying twice the amount through bullionvault Goldmoney etc and I didn't really want to have a majority of my net worth in ETFs incase something went wrong with the company running it even though I think it is unlikely.

 

intereting point about the leveraged funds. Clearly they don't work as people expect; however although the downside is exagerrated on the downside (not an insignificant problem, well pointed out), if you are BUYING the ETF leveraged or not one is obviously expecting it to go up, in which case your gains are still much greater than the vanilla product.

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BBC: Gold Fever

 

BBC web page before tonights TV programme:

 

The Money Programme - gold fever, BBC 2 at 19.00 - 19.30, Friday 13 June 2008.

 

I love this bit:

 

 

In response, the Treasury says its gold sales programme "was part of a restructuring of the foreign currency and gold reserves, aimed at achieving a better-balanced portfolio".

 

"A reduction in risk of approximately 30% was achieved," it says.

:lol::lol::lol:

 

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gold likes it :unsure: (or has taken very little notice)

The sideways summer continues....one step forward, one step back.

 

With my amateur-analyst’s hat on, I have come up with these charts. They analyse a theory of mine, which others here have also noticed, that current gold price pattern (peak and fallback) may have some similarities to 2006. I’m trying to use this to judge when the sideways action might end (I’m frustrated at the moment as I cannot buy in this dip and am a few months away from new funds).

 

My analysis has normalized the peak price from each year (on 12 May 2006 and 17 March 2008) as 100% and defined the peak price day as day 50.

 

The second chart (days 1-100) shows that the 2006 peak value was much more of a spike than the 2008 peak. In 2008, values >75% peak were seen in the 50 day run-up while in 2008 values >85% were found. Post-peak, 2006 was more volatile (believe it or not!). Also notice in the post-peak stage how the 100 day prices are very similar for both years at c.85% of peak. Things could go either way from here……

 

The first chart (days 1-400) shows the same analysis up to day 400 – day 400 was when the 2006 peak price (100%) was surpassed. If gold slides to 80% ish of peak in the next few weeks (c. $800), then we may be replicating 2006 over again, and it may a long drawn-out recovery as per 2006. If gold holds above 90% (c. $900) then things look more optimistic.

 

Best wishes for the weekend.

Any comments or critique are, as always, welcome.

 

 

Data source :

world gold council , daily London pm fix

http://www.gold.org/deliver.php?file=/valu...s/web_daily.xls

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"A reduction in risk of approximately 30% was achieved," it says.

:lol::lol::lol:

 

That is hilarious isn't it. Meaningless government bullshit, but of a comical sort.

 

 

 

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That is hilarious isn't it. Meaningless government bullshit, but of a comical sort.

 

Do you think they actually BELIEVE the bullshit they spout? Now thats an alarming prospect! :blink:

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