kernull Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 big run up is expected in oil by monday, maybe this is the last time we see gold at 860s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 I know this was posted already, but does this really seem possible: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48581/why-go...0-an-ounce.html Or is it completely OTT. Obviously a major geo-political event may trigger something - but just based on the credit crunch and it's impact this seems too high? SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 Good articles, don't think they have been posted: http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/jun052008_gold.html http://www.kitco.com/ind/vaughn/jun042008.html http://www.kitco.com/ind/fekete/jun052008.html SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 BBC: Gold Fever BBC web page before tonights TV programme: The Money Programme - gold fever, BBC 2 at 19.00 - 19.30, Friday 13 June 2008. Public awareness hotting up! Was in Bristol at the weekend and several back street jewellers had big signs in the window 'Gold bought - prices never higher etc'. When it suits the media they will start ramping it SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 Assuming gold hits $1650 by Jan 2011 as per the Jim Sinclair prediction, anyone care to guess what the USD/GBP may look like at that point in time? Are we likely to stay pegged around $1.95 or given we lag the states by 18 months when they are pulling out of the current fiasco we will still be in it? Any views? SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 Massive bull flag formation in Brent crude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 Assuming gold hits $1650 by Jan 2011 as per the Jim Sinclair prediction, anyone care to guess what the USD/GBP may look like at that point in time? Are we likely to stay pegged around $1.95 or given we lag the states by 18 months when they are pulling out of the current fiasco we will still be in it? Any views? SafeBetter GBPUSD will be not higher than 1.50 by then, is my guess. I expect it to go towards 1.00 over the next 5 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 Anyone any opinions on the swiss 20 sfr vreneli? coininvest currently doing a special for £86.11 works out at about £462 per oz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 Look like quite a good deal but only 5 per customer. They also got silver philharmonics for £10.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 13, 2008 Report Share Posted June 13, 2008 The sideways summer continues....one step forward, one step back. With my amateur-analyst’s hat on, I have come up with these charts. They analyse a theory of mine, which others here have also noticed, that current gold price pattern (peak and fallback) may have some similarities to 2006. I’m trying to use this to judge when the sideways action might end (I’m frustrated at the moment as I cannot buy in this dip and am a few months away from new funds). My analysis has normalized the peak price from each year (on 12 May 2006 and 17 March 2008) as 100% and defined the peak price day as day 50. The second chart (days 1-100) shows that the 2006 peak value was much more of a spike than the 2008 peak. In 2008, values >75% peak were seen in the 50 day run-up while in 2008 values >85% were found. Post-peak, 2006 was more volatile (believe it or not!). Also notice in the post-peak stage how the 100 day prices are very similar for both years at c.85% of peak. Things could go either way from here…… The first chart (days 1-400) shows the same analysis up to day 400 – day 400 was when the 2006 peak price (100%) was surpassed. If gold slides to 80% ish of peak in the next few weeks (c. $800), then we may be replicating 2006 over again, and it may a long drawn-out recovery as per 2006. If gold holds above 90% (c. $900) then things look more optimistic. Best wishes for the weekend. Any comments or critique are, as always, welcome. Data source : world gold council , daily London pm fix http://www.gold.org/deliver.php?file=/valu...s/web_daily.xls GREAT Charts DCA Thanks! looking forward to see how this plays out over the coming weeks/months, your charts are definitely food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 I know this was posted already, but does this really seem possible: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48581/why-go...0-an-ounce.html Or is it completely OTT. Obviously a major geo-political event may trigger something - but just based on the credit crunch and it's impact this seems too high? SafeBetter iran is now buying gold and withdrawing their foreign investments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 iran is now buying gold and withdrawing their foreign investments. least they have some sense then inflation everywhere at the moment it seems. I guess thats what happens when the worlds reserve currency is being delierately devalued when are the masses going to wake up and on a different matter when are the Euro Fat Cats gonna realise the people dont want it (Mugabe would be proud that they are not listening to the Irish voters) No free lunch] Year-Over-Year Inflation As of June 2008 (1) Zimbabwe 1,000,000% U.A.E 12% Argentina (2) 25 to 30% Turkey 11% Latvia 30% Costa Rica 11% Venezuela 29% South Africa 11% Vietnam 25% Philippines 10% Iran 25% Indonesia 10% Egypt 21% Guatemala 10% Pakistan 18% Saudi 10% Bolivia 15% China 9% Nicaragua 14% India 8% Russia 14% Chile 8% Qatar 14% Thailand 8% In Argentina and Vietnam, as one example, panic-stricken residents are swapping their currencies for dollars and Euros. But given the double-digit growth in M3 for the dollar and euro, these inflating currencies may prove to be a dangerous place to hide from inflation. Even for the currencies that are touted as being stable, interest rates are still below the rates of inflation wherever you look. Unless interest rates are increased materially above the rate of inflation, prices will continue to rise. But with the high level of bad debt in the world banking system, the financial system would not survive the strain of a significant interest rate increase. For a period of time, stagflation will become a new way of life for many of us. Clearly, if you reside in one of the countries mentioned in the chart, and want to avoid being wiped out entirely, one of the safest hedges against inflation is to buy gold and silver. Because I'm patriotic and know that preserving my capital will help America preserve its capital, I'll continue to buy them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 GBPUSD will be not higher than 1.50 by then, is my guess. I expect it to go towards 1.00 over the next 5 years or so. Parity with the $ @ 1:1 would be mind blowing for the pog in gbp - probably means no more trips to Florida though! Money Programme last night Pierre Lassonde saying he expects the gold price to be four digits, end in 000 and the first digit won't be a 1...... .....£2000 per trOz? now that would really blow my mind. He didn't give any time predictions though - shame. But he certainly believes the bull is long from over - nice. SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 I'm expected in excess of $2000 by 2011. That would be over £1000 an ounce. And I think that is a fairly conservative estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 iran is now buying gold and withdrawing their foreign investments. I think the idea of a fiat currency being a reserve currency will in the end be seen as the ultimate monetary folly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 Gold to oil ratio is the lowest in over 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 Gold to oil ratio is the lowest in over 30 years. Gold= $871.20 Oil= $134.40 Ratio = 871.20/134.40 = 6.48 If it really is peak oil, this ratio will remain low, or at at least the peak when gold recovers should be low compared to previous peaks IMO. Perhaps in the future gold/Dow and gold/av house price ratios will be a better guide to gold being in a bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 I think the idea of a fiat currency being a reserve currency will in the end be seen as the ultimate monetary folly. Yes. All these people who claim the opposite now will be pretty embarassed (but will always have known better of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 G-8 Urges Emerging Markets to Cut Oil, Food Subsidies http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Yes, why not? Just let them starve. No problem. WTF DO THEY THINK??? ... with well-targeted help for the poorest ... NOT practical. TRANSLATION: The West tells the East basically to piss off and not even think about using their hard-earned money to buy anything useful like fuel or food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 I think the idea of a fiat currency being a reserve currency will in the end be seen as the ultimate monetary folly. Steve Netwriter linked to this article a while back - it has an interesting discussion of the exact reasons why using the dollar as a reserve currency is problematic. http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=42919 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 Steve Netwriter linked to this article a while back - it has an interesting discussion of the exact reasons why using the dollar as a reserve currency is problematic. http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=42919 Yes, IMO that's a classic. You can listen and read the transcript. Nice charts too Is the Dollar Doomed? Dr. Benn Steil is a Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He's also the Editor of International Finance and a co-founder and managing member of Efficient Frontiers, LLC, which is a market consultancy. His latest book is Financial Statecraft: The Role of Financial Markets in American Foreign Policy. It was named one of the best business books of 2006 by Library Journal. A lot of reporters ask me these days whether we're in the midst of a commodity bubble. In fact, next week I'm going to Washington to give a Senate testimony. Our good folks in Congress are examining whether we are in fact experiencing a commodities bubble driven by irrational speculation, and what we need to do about it. My perspective is that the more interesting, and indeed more important, question to ask is whether we're at the end of what I would call a ‘fiat currency bubble.’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 Yes, IMO that's a classic. You can listen and read the transcript. Nice charts too Is the Dollar Doomed? One question that occurred to me listening to it again - does the world need a single reserve currency? It is taken for granted in the article we do. But perhaps it's a historical accident that following the end of Bretton Woods, the US was in such a position of hegemony. Could the global economy survive without a single reserve currency, or with a few different currencies that were equally strong. Another way of viewing the problem outlined in the article is that the dollar's role as emergency currency actually undermines the free market in currencies in developing countries, as well as leaving the US in an anomalous position with regards to its deficit etc. Maybe it would be better if there wasn't the option of flight to dollar safety (as increasingly there isn't...)? I'm honestly not sure of the answer to this question, but as the dollar loses its power, it may be a question that is put to a practical test. If you don't end up with gold or commodity backed money, it's unlikely to be the first stage, more likely to be the solution applied to an ongoing crisis after the dollar loses its current hegemony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 One question that occurred to me listening to it again - does the world need a single reserve currency? ... I would say of course not. Any easily tradable and storable commodity would do as a reserve. I guess one would simply end up with precious metals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 I would say of course not. Any easily tradable and storable commodity would do as a reserve. I guess one would simply end up with precious metals. Well, I suppose the question was meant to exclude any reserve currency including gold. Though I'd acknowledge that in a floating system with no reserve fiat currency, gold (along with other commodities) would be likely to attain at the very least a talismanic position as a 'fixed point' to compare currencies to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 I'm expected in excess of $2000 by 2011. That would be over £1000 an ounce. And I think that is a fairly conservative estimate. or £1500 if the exchange rate drops to 1.5/1. Which considering the amount of trouble this country is in is the minimum IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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