Steve Netwriter Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Blimey. Now, that is one of nicest shots of bullion I've ever seen. Might even be enough to make of a man a gold bug. Actually, you should thank notanewmeber for the pic, which I nicked from one of his blogs It is impressive isn't it :D Now the question is, how did he get into Ologhai's bedroom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotspur Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 "James Turk has also been talking about the dollar collapse being imminent.' He could be right. With gold tailing off a bit, and the dollar having a few days of rally, I do think there's a decent chance that we are near to the END of the DOLLAR RALLY, not at the beginning all fiat money going to pot against metal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Careful, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 I agree. I'm fully loaded and well prepared for the next round of action. Loaded and locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 UK CPI at 3.3% - higher than economists expected. No big reaction yet in PoG (but may now drift up during the day) Interesting thing in explanation letter from King to Darling, and in the chancellor's response letter, was an open admission that inflation will be well above 3% until well into 1009. Since those guys aren't in the business of scaring the populus - that probably means way over 4% with no respite until 2010. All good for PoG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benall Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Careful, Careful of what? Isn't that a bullish triangle formation with long-term resistance at $860? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Careful of what? Isn't that a bullish triangle formation with long-term resistance at $860? We haven't broken resistance yet and there is still a chance we could break to the downside out of this triangle. Gold still hasnt hit the 200dma Whatever happens we will know quite soon, we are soon to be out of this pattern one way or another. Jim Sinclair is adamant 848 (late april/may) was the low, I guess we will know soon. Dollar looking weaker/Euro looking stronger, oil still relentless, Soybeans/corn hitting new highs, wheat making a comeback, natural gas looking good - my guess is we break to the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benall Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 We haven't broken resistance yet and there is still a chance we could break to the downside out of this triangle. Gold still hasnt hit the 200dma Whatever happens we will know quite soon, we are soon to be out of this pattern one way or another. Jim Sinclair is adamant 848 (late april/may) was the low, I guess we will know soon. Dollar looking weaker/Euro looking stronger, oil still relentless, Soybeans/corn hitting new highs, wheat making a comeback, natural gas looking good - my guess is we break to the upside. Fair comments. I forgot about that 200 day thingy. While triangles generally have been performing well of late (for gold and others), something is telling me to be careful - that there may be more of a correction in commodities and PMs. That said, I've learnt not to trade PMs but to accumulate on dips so have been buying quite happy should the price fall to the 820-850 area. The risk/reward looks promising. I would hate to be out of funds at lower levels though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Just "one more" pull back to support. God, I can't wait till this is all over . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 I notice we had the traditional NY trading dump today, nothing new there, very predictable. What I liked was the fact that it seemed to run into a wall of buyers at varying support levels, the result of which has been a nice 'v' recovery. Looks very bullish to me, so I've added a small long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 I notice we had the traditional NY trading dump today, nothing new there, very predictable. What I liked was the fact that it seemed to run into a wall of buyers at varying support levels, the result of which has been a nice 'v' recovery. Looks very bullish to me, so I've added a small long. ...and same thing happend at the start of the UK trading day. Indeed, all good evidence that there is investor buying interest. So once the traders decide they want to help move the price up rather than down, the thing could fly - so long as CBs don't spoilt the party (or get swamped as they did in the run up to 1000) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 If gold does break out and I miss it, I still have my core positions to console me. im sorry, but what do you mean by core? physical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Looks very bullish to me, so I've added a small long. Marceau, I'd be very interested in understanding your trading strategy, if you're willing to share it. You saw today's action as "very bullish" but chose to place a "small" long.... What would it take to make you place a large one? Are you expecting to play out that long in quite a short range (e.g. closing it at around 900) with a view that Gold will pull back or....? I must admit I've struggled in recent months. I've tended to use a buy-and-hold strategy but have seen huge profits (in early March) turn to losses (last week). I've used stops and found them tripped out only for the price to head higher... Then not used them and seen my positions tumble. With the general view on this board regarding G&S being "hold it as insurance" I'm very interested in understanding if/how others are successfully trading it. Any insight would be appreciated, although I completely understand if you'd prefer not to disclose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 im sorry, but what do you mean by core? physical? Core position - Long term positions in physical gold and gold mining shares which I have no intention of selling or trading. Physical - Exactly what it says on the tin, physical holdings of gold and silver. Again, not for trading but long term holding. Represents a comparatively small percentage of my position as I mostly hold mining equities. The rest of my interest in the gold market is for trading on a more frequent basis, using instruments such as options or even CFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Core position - Long term positions in physical gold and gold mining shares which I have no intention of selling or trading. Physical - Exactly what it says on the tin, physical holdings of gold and silver. Again, not for trading but long term holding. Represents a comparatively small percentage of my position as I mostly hold mining equities. The rest of my interest in the gold market is for trading on a more frequent basis, using instruments such as options or even CFDs. Pardon me if this is not your strategy marceau, but just to clarify. Many investors that target a single sector like precious metals adopt a core/satelite strategy. The core holding is the rigid solid part of the investment, in gold you would call it the physical itself and maybe a few majors like newmont. You can then enter positions in more risky areas like junior miners/options etc, these 'satelites' consume a considerably lesser proportion of the portfolio but offer high risk/rewards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Marceau, I'd be very interested in understanding your trading strategy, if you're willing to share it. You saw today's action as "very bullish" but chose to place a "small" long.... What would it take to make you place a large one? Are you expecting to play out that long in quite a short range (e.g. closing it at around 900) with a view that Gold will pull back or....? I must admit I've struggled in recent months. I've tended to use a buy-and-hold strategy but have seen huge profits (in early March) turn to losses (last week). I've used stops and found them tripped out only for the price to head higher... Then not used them and seen my positions tumble. With the general view on this board regarding G&S being "hold it as insurance" I'm very interested in understanding if/how others are successfully trading it. Any insight would be appreciated, although I completely understand if you'd prefer not to disclose. In this case I'm quite bullish on the immediate future for gold, but the chart risk is still quite high, so I'm not going to place too much money into the short term market. I will most probably exit this position on the first test of $900, dependant on how the charts look when we get there. If we drop from here I will probably exit just below support at $880, so the risk/reward is quite good and the size of the position means a very small loss. That's how I trade, playing risk/reward and trying to stick as close as possible to support/resistance levels. This case probably isn't the best example, as I'm not very close to a key support level, but I've seen this morning's chart action so many times in the past, and in the majority of cases they've led to more gains within 24 hours. If I'd been watching the market when the drop occured I would have been in at the $876 level, and would be holding now for $900, however I was away from the screen when it happened, so I'm taking a bigger risk at $884. As for the chart risk, I always find it more profitable playing trends rather than trying to fight against the tide. A good example is during the first month of the correction, where the downtrend was clear and it was quite obvious that the recovery back to $950 was just a bounce. During that period I took out almost no long positions and made some very careful shorts, all of which paid off quite well. You may remember me banging on like some kind of doomster around then, well that was why. The trend wasn't supportive of price rises and the shorters made by far the easier money. At the moment we're in limbo, from a chart perspective, range bound between $850 and $910 and with all kinds of conflicting news. The volatility is high and the market is shaking off both longs and shorts in preparation for the beginning of another trend. The start of the trend will most likely be marked by a very large move, so if you get caught with too big a position on the wrong side of the trade you're going to get hurt and have no chance of recovery. The picture will become a whole lot clearer once we've broken $900 and particularly $910, as we will have broken out of the downtrend that has been in place since the start of the correction and the charts will leave gold free to rally. That will be the time to start buying the dips in earnest, as the trend will support your position and be likely to erase your mistakes. Remember there is still an awful lot of money to be made between $910 and $1000, and with a lot less risk than there is at present. Buying NY trading dips during an established gold uptrend is the single easiest way to make money in this market. As for stops I tend to be a bit more free and easy with them than I should be, which does sometime catch me out. The entry point is key for stops, if you have waited for a good pullback then generally you can afford to be a bit tighter with them. But if you're playing momentum you have to leave them loose or the market will just knock them out. For this reason I don't generally 'chase' gold or silver with momentum trades - hence the adage 'don't buy strength'. If you don't have tight stop discipline you may well make lots of winning trades, but the losses you make will be so big that they'll wipe out your profits and more. Believe me, I've learned this the hard way. There are times of course when you just don't see it coming, like the drop from $1000, I took some nasty losses on that, but stops and a bit of good fortune (I had exited a number of trades in order to move some money around), saved me from a catastrophic loss. All of this of course only applies to trading, for buy and hold core positions the time to buy is now, just start drip feeding it in at any price below $900. If you truly believe in the gold bull then the worst case is that we take a year or so to get back to the highs. A bit long, but I hope this was helpful. The key is to develop a style that works for you and stick to your own rules. You'd be surprised how often the basics work in the gold market, being greedy while others are fearful and fearful while others are greedy can work wonders, it's just remembering this fact when you're getting caught up in the action that's the hard part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Pardon me if this is not your strategy marceau, but just to clarify. Many investors that target a single sector like precious metals adopt a core/satelite strategy. The core holding is the rigid solid part of the investment, in gold you would call it the physical itself and maybe a few majors like newmont. You can then enter positions in more risky areas like junior miners/options etc, these 'satelites' consume a considerably lesser proportion of the portfolio but offer high risk/rewards. Yes, that is correct. The only thing I will add is that although the core positions are generally in less risky areas, some can be higher risk, but have moved well into profitability. Obviously those new to the market won't have that protection. The whole process of gold investing is made far easier simply by having been in the market for longer. It will take some monumental disaster to take gold back to last year's levels, let alone the levels of 4/5/6 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Thanks marceau, for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Gold Price Volatility yep the gold bull will end when we have interest rates above the true rate of inflation - and i dont think thats gonna be happening for a while. 5. In October 1978, COMEX gold peaked at $249.40 for a rise of 147% in two years and two months. By this time, inflation in the developed world was high and rising...much like inflation in the developing world is today. 6. In November 1978 COMEX gold bottomed at $191.20 for a decline of 24% in one month...Inflation continued to be a problem. 7. Then, in January 1980, COMEX gold peaked at $873...an increase of over 350% in fourteen months. After this gold price peak, inflation began to moderate. Paul Volker had taken over at the Federal Reserve and was administering some strong anti-inflationary interest rate increases which lead to a recession. He remained a strong and steady force for moderation in money supply growth and reduced the public's inflationary expectations. In our opinion, we are at the beginning of a period of inflation in the emerging world that may be like the equivalent of early 1978 in the developed world. The developing nations are making the same mistakes such as price controls, which incentivize consumption, export restrictions, which incentivize global hoarding, tariffs and many other artificial boundaries which create market dislocations and lead to higher prices. Government officials are beginning to blame the speculators for the problems that the government policies have fostered. We can be sure that we will see the old stand bys: government threats of sales from their inventories and restrictions on trading commodities in many parts of the world. None of this will work until they implement higher interest rates and other tight monetary and fiscal policies which will slow economic activity and moderate inflationary expectations. Then, we can expect an end to inflation. Between now and the time that officials implement these policies (I don't know how long it will take them to get wise), we will see more inflation and much higher gold and other commodity prices. The primary purchasers of gold will be the newly wealthy citizens of the emerging world, and anybody else who wants to protect themselves from inflation will also look to gold and other commodities. Governmental officials will label these investors as greedy speculators, but in reality, they are people combating the rising cost of living and the erosion of their savings...in other words, they have little choice. and we have high inflation but it is in your interests to take a pay cut and we elected these idiots In his letter, the chancellor called for "restraint" in pay rises awarded in both the public and private sector. "To return now to inflationary pay settlements would undermine rather than raise people's living standards, with a damaging circle of wage increases eroded by steadily increasing prices," the chancellor said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 In this case I'm quite bullish on the immediate future for gold, but the chart risk is still quite high, so I'm not going to place too much money into the short term market. I will most probably exit this position on the first test of $900, dependant on how the charts look when we get there. If we drop from here I will probably exit just below support at $880, so the risk/reward is quite good and the size of the position means a very small loss. That's how I trade, playing risk/reward and trying to stick as close as possible to support/resistance levels. This case probably isn't the best example, as I'm not very close to a key support level, but I've seen this morning's chart action so many times in the past, and in the majority of cases they've led to more gains within 24 hours. If I'd been watching the market when the drop occured I would have been in at the $876 level, and would be holding now for $900, however I was away from the screen when it happened, so I'm taking a bigger risk at $884. As for the chart risk, I always find it more profitable playing trends rather than trying to fight against the tide. A good example is during the first month of the correction, where the downtrend was clear and it was quite obvious that the recovery back to $950 was just a bounce. During that period I took out almost no long positions and made some very careful shorts, all of which paid off quite well. You may remember me banging on like some kind of doomster around then, well that was why. The trend wasn't supportive of price rises and the shorters made by far the easier money. At the moment we're in limbo, from a chart perspective, range bound between $850 and $910 and with all kinds of conflicting news. The volatility is high and the market is shaking off both longs and shorts in preparation for the beginning of another trend. The start of the trend will most likely be marked by a very large move, so if you get caught with too big a position on the wrong side of the trade you're going to get hurt and have no chance of recovery. The picture will become a whole lot clearer once we've broken $900 and particularly $910, as we will have broken out of the downtrend that has been in place since the start of the correction and the charts will leave gold free to rally. That will be the time to start buying the dips in earnest, as the trend will support your position and be likely to erase your mistakes. Remember there is still an awful lot of money to be made between $910 and $1000, and with a lot less risk than there is at present. Buying NY trading dips during an established gold uptrend is the single easiest way to make money in this market. As for stops I tend to be a bit more free and easy with them than I should be, which does sometime catch me out. The entry point is key for stops, if you have waited for a good pullback then generally you can afford to be a bit tighter with them. But if you're playing momentum you have to leave them loose or the market will just knock them out. For this reason I don't generally 'chase' gold or silver with momentum trades - hence the adage 'don't buy strength'. If you don't have tight stop discipline you may well make lots of winning trades, but the losses you make will be so big that they'll wipe out your profits and more. Believe me, I've learned this the hard way. There are times of course when you just don't see it coming, like the drop from $1000, I took some nasty losses on that, but stops and a bit of good fortune (I had exited a number of trades in order to move some money around), saved me from a catastrophic loss. All of this of course only applies to trading, for buy and hold core positions the time to buy is now, just start drip feeding it in at any price below $900. If you truly believe in the gold bull then the worst case is that we take a year or so to get back to the highs. A bit long, but I hope this was helpful. The key is to develop a style that works for you and stick to your own rules. You'd be surprised how often the basics work in the gold market, being greedy while others are fearful and fearful while others are greedy can work wonders, it's just remembering this fact when you're getting caught up in the action that's the hard part. Great Post! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benall Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 Great Post! Thanks Yes, seconded. It's great to get insights into others approaches and learnings. It's taken me a while but I've adopted a similar approach and it feels right. I have trading and investing (and other) funds with appropriate allocations to both. I still haven't mastered the stops but I have mastered taking an intermediate view (that's where the experienced traders say they make their best money). Even an underwater position with some sound fundamental reasoning behind it usually rights itself with sufficient time. That's where reviewing your trading performance (e.g. at tax return time) is a great education - that feedback loop has taught me a lot of discipline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 17, 2008 Report Share Posted June 17, 2008 A bit long, but I hope this was helpful. Very. Many thanks. When I first started trading 9 months ago I was a real chart/TA skeptic. I went with the fundamentals (it was obvious USD&GBP were heading south) and looking back now I guess you could say I was lucky rather than smart. That luck ran out recently and I'm back to where I started with a bump. I now see how wide of the mark my views on charts were - when you think of them as the "footprints of the smart money" it makes no sense to ignore them - so I'm reading up on the topic as heavily as I can. That said, there's no substitute for experience so input from wise folk such as yourself is hugely valuable. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yaowarat Posted June 18, 2008 Report Share Posted June 18, 2008 Appears the banking cartel is getting wobbly on raising interest rates.... traders smell blood in the water. Ought to be a bullish component for those holding gold. Dollar Trades Near 1-Week Low on Reduced Bets for Higher Rates http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded near a one-week low against the euro as signs of U.S. economic weakness encouraged traders to pare bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. ``Traders will look for opportunities to sell the dollar,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``The Fed can't move interest rates. It's caught between inflation and an economic slowdown.'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 18, 2008 Report Share Posted June 18, 2008 Financial Market Bubbles- From Euphoria to Credit Collapse Revulsion http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5108.html By: John_Mauldin The Road To Revulsion by James Montier 16. "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930 17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..." - HES, Aug 30, 1930 18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - HES Nov 15, 1930 19."Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." - HES Oct 31, 1931 20. "Executive Order 6102 Forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion and Gold Certificates By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5 ( B ) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933, entitled "An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes", in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists, I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of the order... All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933, except the following: 1. Such amount of gold as may be required for legitimate and customary use in industry, profession or art within a reasonable time, including gold prior to refining and stocks of gold in reasonable amounts for the usual trade requirements of owners mining and refining such gold. 2. Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins. 3. Gold coin and bullion earmarked or held in trust for a recognized foreign government or foreign central bank or the Bank for International Settlements. 4. Gold coin and bullion licensed for the other proper transactions (not involving hoarding) including gold coin and gold bullion imported for the re-export or held pending action on applications for export license..." Franklin D. Roosevelt, The Whitehouse April 5, 1933 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7460475.stm Economy is slowing, says Darling ... Rising food and fuel prices were hitting consumers, he told the BBC. Speaking a day after consumer inflation jumped to the highest level in 10 years, he also called for restraint in pay demands. Hey, ho! Food and fuel prices go up. Let's make sure at least wages don't! Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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