marceau Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 now tne big question is: do we sell at 950 area or 1000 ? Very much depends how fast we get there and what the charts look like at the time. My current thinking would be to hold on, a sell-off at $950 is quite obvious and would be an ideal opportunity for the market to dump some undercommitted longs. First things first, let's get through $910. Until that happens this could be a bull trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 now tne big question is: do we sell at 950 area or 1000 ? Or at 1200 or not at all? Jim Sinclair says sell a third at the top of a rhino horn and buy back at the bottom of a fishing line for long term investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 ditto But I aint sellin nothin cos cash is looking too fishy these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Good work. I've covered all of my longs now for some very good profits. I'll look to re-enter below $905 and $17.65, but again only with small positions. Until we have broken $910 spot then it's still too early to be counting any chickens. Nice. I've closed off the silver intra-day long at $17.60 which I may kick myself for in a few hours. I'm still well long from much lower down on core positions but this was a bit of fun (and about the first time I've profited from CFDs other than by accident!!!). Silver is looking a bit different to gold on my chart in that despite the volatility, it never breached the uptrend. It remains on a $14 price objective though and needs to trade up above $18 to give a new buy signal and fail that low objective. Resistance then at $18.50. Gold is at $906 now. We might see that $910 yet you know. Next resistance $935 then! A close above $900 would make me happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Nice. I've closed off the silver intra-day long at $17.60 which I may kick myself for in a few hours. I'm still well long from much lower down on core positions but this was a bit of fun (and about the first time I've profited from CFDs other than by accident!!!). Silver is looking a bit different to gold on my chart in that despite the volatility, it never breached the uptrend. It remains on a $14 price objective though and needs to trade up above $18 to give a new buy signal and fail that low objective. Resistance then at $18.50. Gold is at $906 now. We might see that $910 yet you know. Next resistance $935 then! A close above $900 would make me happy though. That's why I've bought silver here, I think the chances of a test of $18 are quite high. I have no intention of holding on to it beyond $17.90, too much risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 oil growth is more stable now, thats a good thing, no more false break ins in oil. what the heck just happend??? oil from 137 to 134 in 5 minutes! wow, take my words back must be some crazy news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Just re-entered silver at $17.623 for a speculative short term punt. I'll wait until gold has come closer to $900 again before trying any more longs for the time being. Long? He, he. You're braver than me. Good luck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 what the heck just happend??? oil from 137 to 134 in 5 minutes! wow, take my words back must be some crazy news China raising gasoline and diesel prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 now tne big question is: do we sell at 950 area or 1000 ? There's a short-term trade to be had at a few levels before $950 and after before we get back to the $1000 mark. We're a while away from that though I think although would love to be wrong :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 what the heck just happend??? oil from 137 to 134 in 5 minutes! wow, take my words back must be some crazy news I don't think it matters too much, gold is leading today, not following. It will still pay to be vigilant, the downside risk is still there, I'm going to wait for the dust to settle before makng any more trades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 That's why I've bought silver here, I think the chances of a test of $18 are quite high. I have no intention of holding on to it beyond $17.90, too much risk. Makes sense. Hah, said I'd be kicking myself :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Long? He, he. You're braver than me. Good luck with it. It's risky, I know. But if gold shows strength over $905 then silver will test for a breakout. That means a move to $18 by my reckoning. I'm only risking a small part of today's profits on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 what the heck just happend??? oil from 137 to 134 in 5 minutes! wow, take my words back must be some crazy news There's a trade. Got to be an over-reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Back over $905, let's see if it can hold and show some strength. Edit: No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drminky Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 But wouldn't changing the tax laws to discourage the rich doing that with their capital equally be a government intervention? Not all interventions are bad in my book, but I do believe that governments get addicted to the idea of intervention and take it too far more often than not. Well, more a case of stripping back government intervention than creating more. Part of the reason the rich shut down their factories and went into tax-free bonds was to escape the 90% income tax slapped on them by Roosevelt. Ironically, it was probably this shift into bonds that enabled Roosevelt to expand the US debt massively to fund his New Deal programs.. So the end result was essentially shifting from producing things to borrowing off future productivity (debt), another thing our governments seem rather fond of.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 There's a trade. Got to be an over-reaction. Still slipping. That's my intra-day profit gone :-) Must learn not to touch crude oil CFDs!!! I'll regret that on Monday probably when it rallies again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Still slipping. That's my intra-day profit gone :-) Must learn not to touch crude oil CFDs!!! I'll regret that on Monday probably when it rallies again!! Not sure what to make of oil there. Maybe a delayed reaction to the increase in middle east supply? I smell a rat, though I'm not prepared to trade on it. Gold looking very strong at the moment considering the positions of oil and the euro. You can almost guarantee that everyone thinks this is a bull trap of some sort, if we can hold $900 until the close then I predict a lot of singed shorterz tomorrow. Edit: There seems to be some big selling at $906, if that can be broken then we'll get a proper shot at $910. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Not sure what to make of oil there. Maybe a delayed reaction to the increase in middle east supply? I smell a rat, though I'm not prepared to trade on it. Gold looking very strong at the moment considering the positions of oil and the euro. You can almost guarantee that everyone thinks this is a bull trap of some sort, if we can hold $900 until the close then I predict a lot of singed shorterz tomorrow. It was the news that China is raising the price to ease demand on refineries. Difficult to quantify as they express it in Yuan per tonne but it is significant for being the first increase in 8 months. Whiskey & Gunpowder this morning was suggesting that Saudi doesn't have nearly the reserves it has lead everyone to believe and has already passed peak oil with a sharp decline in production to come. It says Bush knows that and may behind other statements from Brown earlier in the week. This weekend's meeting, I expect, will say no to more production from Saudi or may even reveal worse news. Of course, all that is bullish for Gold and Silver and, I agree, they're looking great here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Of course, all that is bullish for Gold and Silver and, I agree, they're looking great here. Gold just broke through that selling at $906, I'm optimistic for that test on $18 silver now. If we break $910 gold then I'll be buying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Gold just broke through that selling at $906, I'm optimistic for that test on $18 silver now. If we break $910 gold then I'll be buying again. Fingers crossed. The heavy selling on NYMEX started this time yesterday and in about an hours time on the 17th so that'll overhang if it happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 There's a short-term trade to be had at a few levels before $950 and after before we get back to the $1000 mark. We're a while away from that though I think although would love to be wrong :-) i think this time we are going to jump over 950 , to somewhat 958 to be the topd. and from there it is very easy to go to 1000, so ... we have to watch this very carefuly, saw very active trading 2 days ago, just like the old times in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1213884023.php Gold Jumps as Bear Stearns' Managers Arrested; Shell Closes 200,000 bpd of Nigerian Oil After Militant Attacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Great last few pages of commentary! New York opening time is certainly the time to gold-watch at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 Well, more a case of stripping back government intervention than creating more. Part of the reason the rich shut down their factories and went into tax-free bonds was to escape the 90% income tax slapped on them by Roosevelt. Ironically, it was probably this shift into bonds that enabled Roosevelt to expand the US debt massively to fund his New Deal programs.. So the end result was essentially shifting from producing things to borrowing off future productivity (debt), another thing our governments seem rather fond of.. Thanks, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 19, 2008 Report Share Posted June 19, 2008 The heavy selling on NYMEX started this time yesterday and in about an hours time on the 17th so that'll overhang if it happens again. It came earlier today so we're probably due a rally in silver shortly. Gold seems less pronounced and I'd expect gold to perhaps come back closer to $900 before it pushes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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