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That's why I've bought silver here, I think the chances of a test of $18 are quite high. I have no intention of holding on to it beyond $17.90, too much risk.

 

Judging by recent performance today's movement is effectively over and we can expect a fairly flat evening/night. Are you holding on to that long Marceau or do you feel there's some risk to the downside tomorrow?

 

I had a pretty poor day myself. I took on board some of the caution about a potential dip back to the 850s and wanted to lock-in some of the recent rises. As I was going to be offline for the day I set some stops around 17.20 silver and 889 gold. These tripped just before the moon-shoot resulting in my sitting at my screen willing the price back down this afternoon. I very nearly dived back into silver at 17.50 but held off in the end. As a few others have pointed out, judging by the recent trend, tomorrow's open of NY trading *could* be a great shopping opportunity.

 

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Judging by recent performance today's movement is effectively over and we can expect a fairly flat evening/night. Are you holding on to that long Marceau or do you feel there's some risk to the downside tomorrow?

 

I had a pretty poor day myself. I took on board some of the caution about a potential dip back to the 850s and wanted to lock-in some of the recent rises. As I was going to be offline for the day I set some stops around 17.20 silver and 889 gold. These tripped just before the moon-shoot resulting in my sitting at my screen willing the price back down this afternoon. I very nearly dived back into silver at 17.50 but held off in the end. As a few others have pointed out, judging by the recent trend, tomorrow's open of NY trading *could* be a great shopping opportunity.

 

 

I'm still holding my long in silver, it's a tiny position and won't cause me any sleepless nights. As for a pullback, I'm not convinced, there's such a huge amount of doom and gloom still around on gold from normally bullish sources. It begs the question - what exactly do you want gold to do? It's risen the best part of $40 in the last 5 days. Now it has a $10 pullback from acknowledged strong resistance and all of the talk is of another massive sell off. I think some folks are just trying to be too clever at the moment, to me this is the time to start looking at making medium term buys, not look at selling or worse still shorting.

 

I may place a small long at $896 should we get back there today. Tomorrow I may hedge my position with a protective short just in case NY decides to do what everyone thinks is inevitable and sells off. Yes, we didn't break $910, yes we won't close over $900. But if either of those had been achieved it just would have made life too easy for the longs. There has to be an element of doubt in order for there to be new buyers when that doubt is resolved.

 

And besides, where will that downside take us? To $860, $850? Maybe even $840, how terrifying. <_< The 200 dma now sits around $860, so if we drop to $850 or $840 the buyers are likely to swarm in.

 

Admittedly now isn't the time to be piling in with huge leverage, but if you believe in the gold bull you have to take the view that the downside is now fairly limited compared to the upside. So placing careful medium term buys over the next week or two seems pretty sensible to me.

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The tough cookies have been trading today. :) I am a wimp. Buy and hold. If a buy on a dip, all the better. :lol:

 

EDITed for typo.

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The tough cookies have been trading today. :) I am a whimp. Buy and hold. If a buy on a dip, all the better. :lol:

 

Yes I am too, a wimp! Sell when it looks like a rhino horn and buy back when it looks like a fishing line on a rod. When it looks like a rhino horn I'm thinking this could be the next leg up or maybe we are only half way up the horn. I'm thinking of playing with £15,000 worth in Bullion Vault (1kg) and see how it goes.

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The tough cookies have been trading today. :) I am a whimp. Buy and hold. If a buy on a dip, all the better. :lol:

Unfortunately my trading is driven by necessity. I simply cannot afford for my gold holdings to go down below $850 as I lost too much "loading the truck up" in the upper 900s earlier in the year. I am far more comfortable with the buy-and-hold strategy but I no longer have a cushion to ride through the hard times. Unfortunately this means you often end up selling at just the wrong moment.

 

Once we're comfortably above 950 I'll be able to relax and just go with the flow.

 

BTW, I note IG Index are now offering £1/point (a point being $1) trades on gold. Previously the minimum trade size was 10. A sign of Joe & Jane Public's interest in Gold perhaps?

 

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I'm still holding my long in silver, it's a tiny position and won't cause me any sleepless nights. As for a pullback, I'm not convinced, there's such a huge amount of doom and gloom still around on gold from normally bullish sources. It begs the question - what exactly do you want gold to do? It's risen the best part of $40 in the last 5 days. Now it has a $10 pullback from acknowledged strong resistance and all of the talk is of another massive sell off. I think some folks are just trying to be too clever at the moment, to me this is the time to start looking at making medium term buys, not look at selling or worse still shorting.

 

I may place a small long at $896 should we get back there today. Tomorrow I may hedge my position with a protective short just in case NY decides to do what everyone thinks is inevitable and sells off. Yes, we didn't break $910, yes we won't close over $900. But if either of those had been achieved it just would have made life too easy for the longs. There has to be an element of doubt in order for there to be new buyers when that doubt is resolved.

 

And besides, where will that downside take us? To $860, $850? Maybe even $840, how terrifying. <_< The 200 dma now sits around $860, so if we drop to $850 or $840 the buyers are likely to swarm in.

 

Admittedly now isn't the time to be piling in with huge leverage, but if you believe in the gold bull you have to take the view that the downside is now fairly limited compared to the upside. So placing careful medium term buys over the next week or two seems pretty sensible to me.

 

I'm feeling quite positive after today.

 

Isn't tomorrow triple or quadruple witching though in NY? If this week is a pre-cursor to the position changes it could be good but I'm leaving short-term money off the table tomorrow as it is going to be a wild ride and I just know I'll get sucked in :-)

 

 

 

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OT ... but for those of us based in the UK, it looks like things are gonna get a whole lot worse...

 

Dale Brings Fed Experience, `Hawkish Tilt' to Bank of England

 

Spencer Dale, named the Bank of England's chief economist by Mervyn King yesterday, spent the last two years getting lessons on monetary policy from Ben S. Bernanke.
:lol: Oh jeez! RIP GBP!

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there IS something rotten in the pipeline what it is one can only guess could it be the 1.14 QUADRILLION seen by the BIS or something that we dont know yet !! this could cause a short term dip in the POG as some could get caught wrong OR a massive move of 5-10% on one day as i wrote a couple of days ago (04.06.08)get long with a short term put(oct) and most important have it in your pocket cos if things get REAL bad your furture can be closed by the SEC or who ever !!

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Gold May Rise to $5,000 on Inflation, Schroder Says (Update1)

 

Bloomberg Link

 

Sounds good now, but not impressed. What would $5000 actually be worth in few years time? Perhaps a $1000 in present terms? If inflation psychology takes hold, money will become less valued as gold becomes more valued.

 

If we adjust for inflation, the $5000 figure in a few years time should be... say.... $20,000? Now maybe that sounds good.

 

It is hard for us to kick the habit of thinking in present dollar terms. Any thoughts?

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Sounds good now, but not impressed. What would $5000 actually be worth in few years time? Perhaps a $1000 in present terms?

If we adjust for inflation, the $5000 figure in a few years time should be... say.... $20,000? Now maybe that sounds good.

 

It is hard for us to kick the habit of thinking in present dollar terms. Any thoughts?

well germany 1923 1oz gold 24000 loafs of bread !!

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well germany 1923 1oz gold 24000 loafs of bread !!

 

Yep, not doubting the efficacy of gold. I am starting to think that the hyper-inflationary scenario might actually play itself out.

 

If that does happen, thinking in dollar terms is irrelevant. Also, I imagine that money [gold or commodities] will become very scarce. Anyone with access to money could be very well of. Forget about that dirty paper stuff.

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Yep, not doubting the efficacy of gold. I am starting to think that the hyper-inflationary scenario might actually play itself out.

 

If that does happen, thinking in dollar terms is irrelevant. Also, I imagine that money [gold or commodities] will become very scarce. Anyone with access to money could be very well of. Forget about that dirty paper stuff.

right and most people are still nose to the wall just tring to advise conservative gold stocks such goldcorp is like pulling teeth lol

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there IS something rotten in the pipeline what it is one can only guess could it be the 1.14 QUADRILLION seen by the BIS or something that we dont know yet !! this could cause a short term dip in the POG as some could get caught wrong OR a massive move of 5-10% on one day as i wrote a couple of days ago (04.06.08)get long with a short term put(oct) and most important have it in your pocket cos if things get REAL bad your furture can be closed by the SEC or who ever !!
small mistake see post 16.06.08 written on the post from 04.06.08

 

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It is hard for us to kick the habit of thinking in present dollar terms. Any thoughts?

This is why I prefer to measure the cost of things in gold. The price of oil has been fairly stable in gold terms.

 

DOW/gold and Average House Price/gold are important ratios for me. (G0ldfinger has links in his signature to various useful graphs.)

 

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It is hard for us to kick the habit of thinking in present dollar terms. Any thoughts?

 

I thought this quote was interesting:

 

Investors are turning to gold for protection as two-thirds of the world's population cope with inflation rates that are climbing to more than 10 percent, Wyke said

 

Inflation is happening all over the world, India's is 11% (Link).

What would you do if you had rupees, keep them in the bank or buy assests like erm gold?

Inflation creating gold demand?

 

 

 

 

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Inflation is happening all over the world, India's is 11% (Link).

What would you do if you had rupees, keep them in the bank or buy assests like erm gold?

Inflation creating gold demand?

YES! In my opinion it is just began! We didn't had any hard drop anymore, and gold is climbing slowly, I think you can buy without any worry about interest rates, naked shorts and such stuff. 2 weeks ago I checked the pure alcohol price and it was 1.90 per litre, 3 days ago I checked and it was 2.30 per litre, yesterday I checked and it is at 2.80 per liter! Damn! I see people in the supermarket emptying stores, cans of tuna , packages with flour are in wanishing, the masses are entering pre-panic stage in my opinion, and there is no much room for gold to go down.

 

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YES! In my opinion it is just began! We didn't had any hard drop anymore, and gold is climbing slowly, I think you can buy without any worry about interest rates, naked shorts and such stuff. 2 weeks ago I checked the pure alcohol price and it was 1.90 per litre, 3 days ago I checked and it was 2.30 per litre, yesterday I checked and it is at 2.80 per liter! Damn! I see people in the supermarket emptying stores, cans of tuna , packages with flour are in wanishing, the masses are entering pre-panic stage in my opinion, and there is no much room for gold to go down.

Wow. If I remember right you live in Mexico?

 

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I like gold here, it has one more piece of work to do (cross $910) before the charts open up for a substantial rally. The charts look very bullish to me, so I'll be adding on pullbacks from here on in (I added a long at $896 yesterday). I don't think we'll get a selloff today, the dips are being bought and support seems to be holding quite well. Plus we broke above that downtrend line and managed to stay there.

 

It's all lining up quite nicely, so my dry powder is ready for use.

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I thought this quote was interesting:

 

 

 

Inflation is happening all over the world, India's is 11% (Link).

What would you do if you had rupees, keep them in the bank or buy assests like erm gold?

Inflation creating gold demand?

 

Yep... it is starting. As inflation psychology increasingly weighs on the minds of savers/ investors they will turn to the monetary metals.

 

It is like a see saw. Now people have confidence in paper money, so they are all on the paper side. As they lose this confidence they will go to the metals side. It will take a while for enough people to move to see an effect, but at a critical moment it will swing very quickly.

 

The scene is set for gold to take off. All that is required is for inflation psychology to play itself out.

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... It is hard for us to kick the habit of thinking in present dollar terms. Any thoughts?

Yes: an average UK home for around 80oz gold.

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