GOLD

[G0ldfinger]

...

But the market could be forgiven for thinking that PMs are pretty turdy too. They have dropped just as far as housing.

You can not compare these market in terms of volatility. Your argument totally falls apart when you look at this chart here:

 

[wrongmove]

You can not compare these market in terms of volatility. Your argument totally falls apart when you look at this chart here:

 

 

Nice chart. <cheeky mode> Shows that property has done very well compared to gold over the years.</cheeky mode> It would be nice to see an up to date version. I'm guessing house prices and gold (in £) are both dropping at comparable speeds at the moment.

 

 

[mattyboy]

Nice chart. <cheeky mode> Shows that property has done very well compared to gold over the years.</cheeky mode> It would be nice to see an up to date version. I'm guessing house prices and gold (in £) are both dropping at comparable speeds at the moment.

 

er - Gold's going up in GBP at the moment!

[G0ldfinger]

Nice chart. <cheeky mode> Shows that property has done very well compared to gold over the years.</cheeky mode> It would be nice to see an up to date version. I'm guessing house prices and gold (in £) are both dropping at comparable speeds at the moment.

Here is an update: Nationwide Aug 08 £164,654; gold spot as of this minute £454.48/oz.

 

House:gold ratio right now: 362.29 oz/house.

 

EDIT: Don't get fooled by volatility in the metals. This is a MAJOR (multi-year/decades) trend.

[wrongmove]

er - Gold's going up in GBP at the moment!

 

Today it is, but I would like to see the last few months.

 

I should add that given the option between property and gold at the moment, I would almost certainly go for gold - at least has gold has some potential upside, which unless the hyperinflation argument turns out correct, (UK) housing hasn't, IMHO!

 

 

 

[wrongmove]

Here is an update: Nationwide Aug 08 £164,654; gold spot as of this minute £454.48/oz.

 

House:gold ratio right now: 362.29 oz/house.

 

EDIT: Don't get fooled by volatility in the metals. This is a MAJOR (multi-year/decades) trend.

 

Fair enough, assuming the graph is also based on the Nationwide. I'm going to have to agree with you on this one!! Gold is better than housing at the moment! Bit of a back handed compliment, but it's a start!

 

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

I haven't got the energy to watch the whole video at the moment, but if you believe I am bluffing, then fair enough. I am not. I am merely enjoying a good debate, and, I thought, bringing some useful angles to the argument. Why on earth I would be bluffing is completely beyond me. I take that as a completely unwarranted slur, and actually just an example of the bad debating you accuse me of.

 

I'm afraid of the two words you could have picked from the title, you picked the wrong one

 

"Tells". ie leakage.

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Nice chart. <cheeky mode> Shows that property has done very well compared to gold over the years.</cheeky mode> It would be nice to see an up to date version. I'm guessing house prices and gold (in £) are both dropping at comparable speeds at the moment.

 

Thanks, that gave me a really good laugh

 

I guess you want to compare performances of gold and house prices YOY ?

 

GoldGBP from £350 to £450. Up 28%.

 

UK house prices down ~13%.

 

Not quite the same rate of change, and not quite in the same direction :lol:

 

[G0ldfinger]

Axstone posted this here:

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=17268

Was invited for a private tour of the BNS vault

Hi Bill,

Waited for 2 months for a tour of the Bank of Nova Scotia vault. Just came back and I was amazed at what I saw.

Given the amount of paper certificates out there I expected to see rooms filled with silver.

Silver:

They only have 60x 1000 oz bars as their working supply.

They have zero 100 oz.

They have zero 10 oz.

They have zero silver maples, silver eagles, zero 1 oz rounds.

They have 1x 5 Oz silver bar. They have 10 million Oz in custody for Sprott and Butterfield.

I asked where is the silver that is backing the scotiabank certificates? The vault manager said New York I guess.

I asked have you ever had inventory this low. They said, been here since 1985, never seen anything like this, we used to have shelves full of small oz silver.

He said waiting for 3 months for 100 oz, 5 oz and 1 oz but cant get any supply.

They have allocated silver and gold as well in large safety deposit shelves but wasn’t able to count that.

Used to be under impression that gold and silver certificates are allocated because they have an exact quantity of metal to the decimal point. Now I know otherwise the metal is NOT there, though they claim it is in NY.

Gold

They have 210x 400 Oz bars

They have 2800x 400 Oz bars in custody for I shares

They seem to have ~4000 maples, ~500 eagles coins, 10x1 kg bars, 10x 1 kg gold in small nugget form for jewellers

I asked where is the gold that is backing the certificates. The vault manager said, the BNS vault in NYC is 5x larger than this one so it is likely housed there.

All the best

Lenny Organ

President

Elite Cardiology Group Inc

Lenny,

I guess the Bank of Nova Scotia means their precious metals are in Deep Storage, just like The US gold.

MIDAS

Let's hope the best then. New York must be full of gold and silver. Even the Germans think that most of their gold is stored there.

[Steve Netwriter]

<cheeky mode> Shows that property has done very well compared to gold over the years.</cheeky mode>

 

Have you heard the expression "never a truer word was said in jest" ?

 

Yes you have got it 100% correct IMO.

 

It has been a house price bull period and a gold bear period.

Now it's the other way round. That's what cycles are all about.

 

By the way, have you checked the deposit rate against real inflation recently

 

[G0ldfinger]

GOLDman Sucks buying shed loads.

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=17263

Bill,

In the September 2 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED an absolutely stunning 1,612 short contracts AND ADDED 351 LONG CONTRACTS to bring their long position to 1,049 contracts (a 50% increase in one session!!!!) and their net short position to 2,537 contracts (a 44% reduction in one session!!!). This is a NEW RECORD LOW for their net short position but beats the previous low by 1,963 contracts! This has absolutely astonishing implications for the gold market. GS is running for the hills. Clearly the gold market is headed MUCH higher.

[Steve Netwriter]

Axstone posted this here:

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=17268

 

Let's hope the best then. New York must be full of gold and silver. Even the Germans think that most of their gold is stored there.

 

Excellent GF

 

[wrongmove]

I'm afraid of the two words you could have picked from the title, you picked the wrong one

 

"Tells". ie leakage.

 

A tell is just a giveaway of a bluff. What exactly is your point here?

 

 

And what exactly are you accusing me of?

 

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

GOLDman Sucks buying shed loads.

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=17263

 

Don't they always get on the right side

And leave the poor suckers who leveraged against them out of pocket

 

I guess once they are fully loaded they'll come out with a new prediction for the price

 

[Steve Netwriter]

A tell is just a giveaway of a bluff. What exactly is your point here?

 

 

And what exactly are you accusing me of?

 

No it's not always related to bluffing.

That's why I originally used the word "leakage", which I thought was more appropriate.

 

I suggest you re-read your posts and look for value laden expressions.

Of course you could be misrepresenting yourself purposely as a gold hater while really being a gold lover

Now that would be a bluff.

 

Of course the thing about leakage is that by definition you don't realise you are doing it. So maybe you can't spot them even when looking.

 

[wrongmove]

No it's not always related to bluffing.

That's why I originally used the word "leakage", which I thought was more appropriate.

 

I suggest you re-read your posts and look for value laden expressions.

Of course you could be misrepresenting yourself purposely as a gold hater while really being a gold lover

Now that would be a bluff.

 

Of course the thing about leakage is that by definition you don't realise you are doing it. So maybe you can't spot them even when looking.

 

This is getting silly. I am not a gold hater or a gold lover. The world is not black and white. I am certainly a gold sceptic, as far as some of the more "outrageous" predictions are concerned. I don't just keep posting "gold will go down", ad nauseum, while many just post "gold will go up", ad naeseum. I also do not resort to attacks on the poster, rather than what they have posted.

 

So please, again, what are you actually accusing me of, other than not agreeing with your every word?

[bitbigt]

So far, it seems the banks have just dumped rather dodgy assets on the BoE to shore up their books. So the taxpayer will eventually get stung, but no new lending to actual customers seems to have occured.

The exchange of "[temporarily] dodgy assets" for cash between BoE and high street banks is irrelevant - it neither creates nor destroys money, nor promotes nor reduces liquidity.

 

But what is key is that the cash the BoE swapped in this deal was created by new bond issuance - creating masses of new money in the overall UK economic system.

 

We've debated before on issues such as money velocity, reservoirs, exchange rates... that determine how 'inflationary' this new money is. My conclusion from that was that such issues are temporary and cannot change the fundamental inflationary nature of new money in the longer term. I would also add to that discussion that I think prices can definitely also rise when money velocity is reducing and recession is taking place, as is now the case [...not sure if you want discuss that further?]

 

 

[Vicarious]

On the “creamy centre” theory, I believe it was said on FS that it would coincide with the US election due to the fact that the republicans would never get re-elected with oil at $145 a barrel, after the election things would then carry on with the dollar starting to fall again once all the representatives knew their seats were safe.

 

It’s a theory I’ve thought has merit and I’ve been happy to hold until after the election, though today I’ve just spotted this. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6092.html

 

Obama is advised by former “tight money” Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker , and hence understands the inflation-fighting benefits of higher interest rates. He will also want to make a change at the Fed, where the Democrats have not appointed a chairman since Volcker himself in 1979.

 

Conversely, McCain will be more likely to extend the term of current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke (which expires in January 2010), thereby producing an additional extended period of excessively low interest rates. While beneficial for the stock market in the short run, low interest rates in the current environment will produce accelerating inflation, which will require a much more seriously damaging period of much higher interest rates to sort out.

 

Now I believe Volker's policies are generally believed to be what saved the dollar before and marked the top in the gold market in 1980, If this is to be repeated then I would worry would the gold market signal the top on the very news of Obama’s election due to Volkers involvement or is this piece of information being overplayed and he has very little input on economic policy.

[bitbigt]

Emergency funding: Mortgage lenders braced for October 20 as they pencil in another big freeze

"Britain's banks are counting the days until October 20, one of the most important dates in their calendar this year, when the Bank of England's emergency lending scheme is due to close.

Oct 20 is still 7 weeks away. Let's see what happens by then...

 

Everyone knows how devastating this closure will be to the banks, the housing market, and the economy. Just at a time when we're actually enterring official recession, and house prices are falling at their fastest rate ever.

 

Remember, this oct 20 date was set way back. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if the BoE is letting that date get closer to turn up the heat on banks to get them to stop ABusing the facility. There will probably be another high level meeting (banks, government, BoE) to hammer out new term for extending the loan facility.

[G0ldfinger]

...

Remember, this oct 20 date was set way back. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if the BoE is letting that dte get closer to turn up the heat on banks to get them to stop ABusing the facility. Ther will probably be another high level meeting (banks, government, BoE) to hammer out new term for extending the loan facility.

Eternal facility. Let's print and go hyper. Love it. "How many billions do you need?" "Here we go." "No, no need to pay them back."

[Steve Netwriter]

This is getting silly. I am not a gold hater or a gold lover. The world is not black and white. I am certainly a gold sceptic, as far as some of the more "outrageous" predictions are concerned. I don't just keep posting "gold will go down", ad nauseum, while many just post "gold will go up", ad naeseum. I also do not resort to attacks on the poster, rather than what they have posted.

 

So please, again, what are you actually accusing me of, other than not agreeing with your every word?

 

I agree, this is getting very silly.

 

I am not accusing you of anything. I am expressing my view of your posts. IMO they include expressions which give away a point of view, which does not match those claimed. Yes, I may be wrong, which is my problem.

 

IMO if anyone wants to put contrarian views on gold on a gold thread they are best to take care in the expressions they use.

 

For example, I participate on a property investment forum. I am conscious of the feeling of the people who tend to be on such places, and I choose my words carefully to try and avoid annoying them. Rather than just expressing opposing views, I post data, information, and I make arguments based on research.

 

Now I may inadvertently use expressions that do irk people on there. And I accept that I may not be capable of realising which things I say do irk people.

 

I'll give you a simple example:

 

while many just post "gold will go up", ad naeseum

 

Might that statement not be a criticism of every poster on here who has talked about gold going up ?

Is that what you intended ?

Do you care about offending people on here ?

 

Here is another one:

 

The predictions of the 'gurus' are in tatters, but no-one seems to have noticed. These people are still quoted, even though they won't even pick up the phone to their acolytes now. Yet, for many here, it is still business as usual, 2006/2007 style.

 

Steve, I appreciate that my level of debate is beneath you, and not even worthy of a response, but could you at least point out the straw men in my arguments, so I can avoid them in the future?

 

So what did you intend by that ?

Presumably you are referring to Jim Sinclair.

Are you making an accusation ?

Why did you use the word "acolyte" ?

 

Many people on here follow Jim Sinclair. Did you intend to criticise someone who many follow ?

 

If so, do you think you can do that without getting feedback ?

 

[drminky]

On the “creamy centre” theory, I believe it was said on FS that it would coincide with the US election due to the fact that the republicans would never get re-elected with oil at $145 a barrel, after the election things would then carry on with the dollar starting to fall again once all the representatives knew their seats were safe.

 

It’s a theory I’ve thought has merit and I’ve been happy to hold until after the election, though today I’ve just spotted this. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6092.html

 

 

 

Now I believe Volker's policies are generally believed to be what saved the dollar before and marked the top in the gold market in 1980, If this is to be repeated then I would worry would the gold market signal the top on the very news of Obama’s election due to Volkers involvement or is this piece of information being overplayed and he has very little input on economic policy.

 

Even IF Obama was to appoint Volcker (and that's a big IF, considering his tax-and-spend policies), I'm not sure there's anthing even Volcker could do to save the system now. 10 years ago perhaps, but I'm not sure now. The US is essentially checkmated. If they lower rates, or keep this low, they get runaway inflation. If they raise, they break the entire system. Either way, the people lose in the end..

[bitbigt]

I agree, this is getting very silly.

 

I am not accusing you of anything. I am expressing my view of your posts. IMO they include expressions which give away a point of view, which does not match those claimed. Yes, I may be wrong, which is my problem.

 

IMO if anyone wants to put contrarian views on gold on a gold thread they are best to take care in the expressions they use.

 

For example, I participate on a property investment forum. I am conscious of the feeling of the people who tend to be on such places, and I choose my words carefully to try and avoid annoying them. Rather than just expressing opposing views, I post data, information, and I make arguments based on research.

 

Now I may inadvertently use expressions that do irk people on there. And I accept that I may not be capable of realising which things I say do irk people.

Tetchy but kinda fun little chat wrongmove and SteveNetwriter are having

 

Personally I find wrongmoves postings very valuable ...but I can't quite work out if, in his heart of hearts he is really neutral, a goldbug, a gold doubter, or frustrated at not being able to fall into one camp or the other. Those example 'leaks' don't really help answer that question - I've probably committed far worse myself

 

Of course, wrongmove and SteveNetwriter could be one and the same person ...aha!!!!!

[bitbigt]

Even IF Obama was to appoint Volcker (and that's a big IF, considering his tax-and-spend policies), I'm not sure there's anthing even Volcker could do to save the system now. 10 years ago perhaps, but I'm not sure now. The US is essentially checkmated. If they lower rates, or keep this low, they get runaway inflation. If they raise, they break the entire system. Either way, the people lose in the end..

I just checked with Ladbrokes - you can get odds of just 50:1 for Clingon-Clinton winning this autumns presidential election!

 

So perhaps Black-Barack may not be here to do anything about interest rates....

 

[edit: CIA just phoned to ask what I meant by that....]

[warpig]

Damn, I was looking forward to a good old fashioned GEI DeathMatch! In the right corner we have Wrongmove Righthook and in the left corner we have Steve NetDestroyer...

 

Tetchy but kinda fun little chat wrongmove and SteveNetwriter are having