GOLD

[wrongmove]

A plot very similar to the table above, but this one from 1800, with the min & max price for each year plotted, so not only can you see the long stable period, but you can also see the yearly volatility.

 

So, from 1970, is that a 38 year bubble in the gold price, or a 38 year fiat currency experiment resulting in permanent inflation, and a diving buying power of the fiat currencies ?

 

Thiat graph shows gold vs. cash in the matress. Most people use interest bearing accounts or bonds to hold their cash. That would be a more realistic comparison, IMHO.

 

But who was in cash all that time anyway? Most people with any amount tend to put it into equities and property. How does gold compare to a diversified portfolio over the years, say 30% (interest bearing) cash, 30% equities, 30% property and 10% commodities?

 

Why this obsession with zero-interest cash accounts? Cash is just a tool, a means, not an end. Sure, there is more of it around than before. But people have a lot more stuff these days, there are a lot more people, and income growth has generally exceed inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[id5]

Is anyone clever enough to flip a chart of the FTSE over the last 2 years (i.e. invert it) and overlay it on a Gold price chart for the same period? Reading the paper just now it seems it is rather akin to the recent moves in Gold if you hold the paper upside down...

 

What an interesting observation!

 

I thought I would give it a go but not invert so I could see the mirror image

 

 

I also thought I would add in silver as well

 

 

I couldn't let Steve have all the fun creating graphs and pretty pictures

 

 

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

I couldn't let Steve have all the fun creating graphs and pretty pictures

 

 

[frizzers]

Sitting on key monthly support.

[wrongmove]

Sitting on key monthly support.

 

Very interesting chart CC. So gold is sitting on its 2 year moving average (1.75 year to be precise), which is still rising fast, so gold will have to run to keep up.

 

I believe the "big boys" get back to their desks soon (although I think the Leger's day thing is perhaps overstated these days - volumes do not seem to really plunge through the summer). It does look like a vital few weeks are ahead - the resurgent USA story is already losing its shine, so what next? 'Safe havens' (blue chips, gold) or a rush for the exits (cash).

 

It looks to my (amateur, inexperienced eye) like gold will either go to $1000 or $600, but is unlikely to stay where it is.

 

Exciting times indeed!

 

 

 

[wrongmove]

Is there a mechanism to bet on volitlity, regardless of direction?

 

i.e. broker says gold will change $100. So you could bet on higher volitility (PoG>900 or <700) or lower (700<PoG<900)

[frizzers]

Don't know WM.

 

Here's that chart

 

<a href="http://img176.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bigdx3.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/8610/bigdx3.th.gif" border="0" alt="Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://img604.imageshack.us/content.php?page=blogpost&files=img176/8610/bigdx3.gif" title="QuickPost"><img src="http://imageshack.us/img/butansn.png" alt="QuickPost" border="0"></a> Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!

 

Just posted this elsewhere:

 

I am short SPX from 1295. Covered some at 1220. I see a retrace to maybe 1260-1270, then further falls.

 

I am long coffee from 135.

 

I am long a shed load of gold miners and badly underwater with most. I wish I had more cash as I would be buying the feck out of various ones now.

 

I have very little money in sterling. Physical gold is up 40% on last year v sterling. People look at dollar gold because that is how SBing works , but gold v pound gold is doing just fine.

 

You selling your Krugers was a big wake -up call for me . But if you took pounds for them it wasn't that great a trade unless you got that money out of pounds sharpish.

 

I am long gold from 850 as I thought it would hold there and it didn't. I would have bought more below 800 but then my position would get too big and I make crap decisions when my position gets too big.

 

I think, gold-wise, this is post May 2006 all over again. 785 is a great place for a bottom, but we could also go back to 730 quite easily and even mid 650s. I do not think we will get a big move any time soon and see a year or more of whipsawing with the next run beginning most likely summer 2009. Too many people have been badly burnt.

 

I would expect another test of 850 before Xmas, perhaps if dollar retraces some of its recent gains which looks likely.

 

COT report is very bullish for gold (same as Aug last year) but less so for silver. Time of year very bullish. You've seen my dollar chart so a move to 850 looks very imminent. But you can't get wedded to the gold is the only money story. You have to be ruthless about taking profits in a whipsaw market.

 

We are in entering a period of deflation, or at least perceived deflation , and of credit contraction. In these circumstances you are seeing a global flight to cash. Dollar is global reserve currency for now , so people are buying dollars. It is possible as in 2004-5 to see dollar and gold rise together.

 

Fact that small investors are buying so much physical bodes well. But could also be small investor late to the party again.

 

In short traders market for now. Not a stay long and be strong market.

 

 

frizzers - 6 Sep'08 - 12:10 - 46280 of 46280 edit

 

Also chart action looks we could be setting up a nice W bottom

[Errol]

Buy physical. Hold it. Free yourself from worry.

 

Quite simple really.

[Steve Netwriter]

Nadler, Kitco, Perth, Matthey; Sold Out!

($500 million silver default?!)

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, September 3, 2008

 

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/nadler.html

 

In an interesting twist, Jon Nadler posted a report by a blogger two days ago that I could mostly agree with.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/sep012008A.html

 

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2008/08/fud-f...inty-doubt.html

 

The blog post is by an "industry insider," who tries to explain the "normality" of the shortages of silver and gold.

 

I also think it's normal for there to be shortages of silver and gold when inflation is raging out of control, and when the markets are manipulated, but I suppose we don't agree on reasons like that.

 

I left several comments on that blog, here:

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=60...174306249188090

 

My key question: If there is no shortage of actual silver, as opposed to only shortage of "investment silver", where can I go to buy that real actual silver? As of last night, there was no answer.

 

Today, a reply came, but no answer.

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2008/09/jason...omments-to.html

 

The blogger works at Perth Mint, and writes:

 

"When I say that wholesale bars are available, it means in wholesale quantities. I cannot speak for Kitco, but I went upstairs and spoke to the Treasurer and he will do deals for a minimum of 20 tonnes of silver and 1 tonne of gold. Call Nigel Moffatt on ( 08 ) 9421 7403. Price will be on a deal-by-deal basis."

 

That's insane. Right downstairs, they often run out of 100 oz. bars, and reportedly have no 1000 oz. bars for sale.

 

Besides, that's a lie. Wholesale quantities in silver are 1 silver futures contract of 5000 ounces, which is about 1/6th of a tonne, not 20 tonnes!

 

Further, I note that Nigel did NOT say he would SELL 20 tonnes of silver. He only wants to "deal" in that, minimum. He probably needs to buy that much to pull his fat out of the fire, as I will explain below.

 

But first, people keep asking me "What's up with Jon Nadler, that guy who bashes metal, yet works for Kitco, who sells metal? I don't get it?"

 

Kitco runs a "pool" account where they hold the metal for investors, or in other words, they OWE precious metal to their clients.

 

Kitco also sells Perth Mint certificates, which also represents precious metal owed to clients.

 

Maybe that explains it?

 

[bitbigt]

What an interesting observation!

I recall I mentioned this a few months back - along with something I thought was rather key...

 

- up until Q3 2007 gold's moves were following the FTSE, suggesting people were buying gold when they felt more confident/rich

 

- after Q3 2007, i.e., after the time the credit crunch really hit and people became aware of it, gold started moving opposite to the FTSE, suggesting people now bought gold when they were more scared.

 

The latter situation still seems to apply, and it also fits with gold currently following oil: i.e., falling oil price makes people feel less scared of inflation and slowdown, so they dump gold and buy stocks.

 

So Q3 2007 represented the start of a new period in the gold market. I'm now waiting on / expecting things to soon move on to yet another phase - wherein gold stops following oil. This will require a more generalised raising of fear (pushing up gold) even though oil may be stable or still slightly falling. ....palpable slowdown, persistent inflation, war, or black swan should do the trick

 

[Compounded]

Is there a mechanism to bet on volitlity, regardless of direction?

 

i.e. broker says gold will change $100. So you could bet on higher volitility (PoG>900 or <700) or lower (700<PoG<900)

 

It could be that the bottom will occur when there are bugger all posts on a thread like this.

 

The HPC gold thread definately went quiet when gold fell and was about to rally.

[G0ldfinger]

Everyone feeling a little insecure because of deflationista talk and/or commodities selling off should listen to this here (got posted here before):

 

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B00.../eventframe.asp

(How Ben, Hank and the SEC created this sell-off)

 

Also, listen to James Dines' interview on FSN. $100 silver is his MINIMUM. He was the guy who told Greenspan that he was an idiot when he (Greenspan) claimed in 1964 that the Fed would never let the price of gold go over $35. It went to $850, as we know today.

[qwerty]

name='G0ldfinger' date='Sep 6 2008, 09:48 PM' post='57348']

Everyone feeling a little insecure because of deflationista talk and/or commodities selling off should listen to this here

 

And maybe this new interview with Puru Saxena he is shocked by the fall of price in silver (he is buying gold and silver at these prices),also his views on the inflation/deflation "propoganda" setting everything up for "election" rate cuts. China and a whole lot more.

 

 

http://radio.goldseek.com/

[G0ldfinger]

And maybe this new interview with Puru Saxena he is shocked by the fall of price in silver (he is buying gold and silver at these prices),also his views on the inflation/deflation "propoganda" setting everything up for "election" rate cuts. China and a whole lot more.

 

 

http://radio.goldseek.com/

Good thing. Here a post of Axstone from GIM with a good snippet:

 

I will not sell value into fear. I am greedily watching several things - now including oil, on which I was bearish for the longest time, but mostly the deeply discounted gold stocks - because genuine fear is beginning to permeate the commodity complex and while the public and political conventions are still babbling about high oil and inflation (or the high prices that result from inflation), you and I know that the manic casino has begun its swing to the opposite end of the spectrum. Those that have not yet departed the 'inflation trade' are casting weary and panicked eyes on the exits. Meanwhile, you and I wait. We wait with our fears and our greed somewhere deep inside. But we keep it contained. We remain rational and patient.

 

This is the deflation scare. You see it before the general public and you know what the result will be. You remember Dr. Bernanke's speech from 2002 Making Sure 'IT' Doesn't Happen Here and you realize that he did not have the bullets to fight 'IT' as recently as a month and a half ago with the US Dollar threatening to crash and inflation expectations running out of control. You realize that a threshold of noise about rising oil occurred this summer and that the masses will take some time to come around to their next stance; DEMANDING that the Fed do something to make sure 'IT' doesn't happen here.

 

As posted recently, this will be the point where gold wakes up and says "Errr, I think that's my cue".

 

Gary Tanashian

[qwerty]

It is so transparent you cannot have $1000 gold $22silver and $150 oil then tell the World there is no inflation you have inflation "under control" when you are going to have to cut rates further.

 

At least Asian CB's are more honest in their reporting of true inflation as Puru says I guess the USA buys its oil and food from different suppliers to the rest of the world!

 

I am starting to wonder if these imploding Hedge funds have been strategically designed to "implode" at un/convienient times?

(this last one apparently had lots of guess what Ngas and silver)

[qwerty]

To go with the gold price table:

 

From:

 

10. Inflation

http://www.chrismartenson.com/inflation

 

 

 

With a timeline up to 1981 200 years of gold prices.

 

 

[wrongmove]

It could be that the bottom will occur when there are bugger all posts on a thread like this.

 

The HPC gold thread definately went quiet when gold fell and was about to rally.

 

People have been saying "buy on pessimism", but I do not agree with that. Pessimism is not enough, IMHO. Pessimism is what you can see in the housing market. Would you buy just now?

 

No, you want full on desperation, not just mere pessimism. Total capitulation.

 

This is all assuming that we are in a bear market, which by many people's definition, we are (a sustained drop of greater than 20% - though I accept that PMs are a special case to many and should be treated differently. A correction is usually defined as a mere 10% in most markets. I also accept that gold in particular has dropped less in many currencies than it has on the dollar. But it is the dollar denominated trading that counts, IMHO, in setting the price, i.e. a bear in dollars is a bear, even if it is not a bear in roubles or whatever).

 

 

Hell will freeze over before some capitulate (or will it?), but ignoring them ( ) do I detect at least a faint whiff of capitulation right here on GEI?

 

(not investment advice, of course, just an observation)

 

 

[Johan van der Smut]

do I detect at least a faint whiff of capitulation right here on GEI?

 

Oh sure, several of us are having real crises of confidence on the silver thread.

[Catflap]

Everyone feeling a little insecure because of deflationista talk and/or commodities selling off should listen to this here (got posted here before):

 

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B00.../eventframe.asp

(How Ben, Hank and the SEC created this sell-off)

 

Also, listen to James Dines' interview on FSN. $100 silver is his MINIMUM. He was the guy who told Greenspan that he was an idiot when he (Greenspan) claimed in 1964 that the Fed would never let the price of gold go over $35. It went to $850, as we know today.

 

Thanks for that GF - reassured somewhat..... tempted to whack the last of my money into a commodities fund on Monday if USDX has peaked. The p/e ratios are just crazy for oil producers and miners ATM.

[Johan van der Smut]

Thanks for that GF - reassured somewhat.....

 

Yes, thanks for that, GF, and for Puru Saxena show.

 

Interesting to hear Saxena saying you'll make a ton of money if you buy into China and Vietnam at today's prices. I might have a look at those...

[qwerty]

Yes, thanks for that, GF, and for Puru Saxena show.

 

Interesting to hear Saxena saying you'll make a ton of money if you buy into China and Vietnam at today's prices. I might have a look at those...

 

 

Problem is most peoples investment timeframe (around here!) seems to be weeks not years !

Jim Rogers and Marc Faber positive both markets and gold also long term!

[enrieb]

Yes, thanks for that, GF, and for Puru Saxena show.

 

Interesting to hear Saxena saying you'll make a ton of money if you buy into China and Vietnam at today's prices. I might have a look at those...

 

Off topic, but hey Van der Smut, Steve Netwriter has shown how you can edit your display name so that you can get it all on one line. Its in this thread here.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry57296

[Steve Netwriter]

With a timeline up to 1981 200 years of gold prices.

 

 

Cheers, I like that

 

[Steve Netwriter]

What does long-term mean ?

 

Can I just make a point about what long-term means, because I think there may be some confusion among some people.

Long-term doesn't mean you buy and it keeps going up for a long time.

No, it means you buy and hold for a long time, and more than likely it drops below what you paid, shoots up, drops back again etc etc, but hopefully sometime in the more far future, it is much higher than it is today.

 

It's long-term, because you only win if you are prepared to wait out the intermediate drops.

 

Not that it's dropped much so far

I mean geez, it was £360 last year, and now it's £450. You can't really call that a drop now can you

 

[notanewmember]

I thought i post it here too [its in the podcasts thread too]

 

 

This is the most comprehensive lecture on money by Bruce McCarthy, recorded in 1984 - this man is a very dedicated man who spent all his life uncovering the truth. It is packed with references, and very relevant today.

 

This is a must listen.

 

Webpage

 

http://diametrics.info/audio/

 

Bruce McCarthy's Monetary Reality Seminar

 

Then right click to save as, the parts - its 3.5 hours long.

 

Heres a teaser - did you know there is no such thing as a money?