GOLD

[tinecu]

It's all there: 2nd chart from top: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php

 

Thanks and this is worth a look....

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b...00779fd2ac.html

[ConvertedGoldBug]

Question to all those who hold physical gold and silver (i.e. personally held, rather than with Bullionvault etc.)

 

How and when would you envisage selling your coins?

 

Would you sell into a rising market, before the peak?

 

Would you sell using Ebay? Or some other coin dealer?

 

And if you left it too late, and sold after a peak, when prices were falling, how would you guarantee being able to sell them, since people might hold off buying if they are seeing prices continually going downwards? And coin dealers might stop buying, since they'd be using their own money, and may not wish to make purchases if the market is falling and they couldn't forsee getting a better return on their expenditure.

 

I'm thinking of getting physical (oo-er missus), since my only holdings so far are in ETF's. Not sure I'd go entirely physical (I have holdings in ISA's and SIPP's), but with some spare cash, I could maybe spend a few thousand just for diversification.

[safebetter]

G0ldfinger/Steve Netwriter - why hold silver also?

 

Are you thinking that silver may rise more or quicker than gold - apologies if that is an old question.

 

Safebetter.

[azazel]

Question to all those who hold physical gold and silver (i.e. personally held, rather than with Bullionvault etc.)

 

How and when would you envisage selling your coins?

 

Would you sell into a rising market, before the peak?

 

Would you sell using Ebay? Or some other coin dealer?

 

And if you left it too late, and sold after a peak, when prices were falling, how would you guarantee being able to sell them, since people might hold off buying if they are seeing prices continually going downwards? And coin dealers might stop buying, since they'd be using their own money, and may not wish to make purchases if the market is falling and they couldn't forsee getting a better return on their expenditure.

 

I'm thinking of getting physical (oo-er missus), since my only holdings so far are in ETF's. Not sure I'd go entirely physical (I have holdings in ISA's and SIPP's), but with some spare cash, I could maybe spend a few thousand just for diversification.

 

I'm going to keep my ear to the ground here, looking at the fundamentals, sell into the rising market before the peak. I hope it works out.

[marceau]

I don't think I will sell mine at all, but my position is probably slightly different in that I have a comparatively small percentage of holdings in physical compared to mining equities. I syphon off equity profits to buy physical on occasion, partly as a precaution in case things get truly catastrophic, but mainly because it's sooooo shiny.

 

If I were to sell, it would probably be to a bullion dealer and it would be once the price has gone over $2000 (ie public mania phase). I suppose there are arguments to say that selling direct to the public during this phase would yield the best profits, as they will pay over the odds to get in on the game. However, the risks could be massive, even if you use (the very dodgy IMOP) e-bay.

 

I'd feel safer taking the hit below spot to a bullion dealer and selling in small clumps on the way up. I think when the time comes though, I'll have great difficulty parting from my shiny precious , that's why I'm mainly in mining shares, far easier to sell!

[drbubb]

.. i also would like to start gently and get into some of these wonderfully cheap junior mining exploration companys,that axstone, Chapman,Sinclair are raving about, is there any way to do it in the U,k.

 

There are some threads like that,

 

But perhaps I should start another one in honor of all the new members.

Is there enough interest here?

[drbubb]

I've been exploring the investing Threads here investing etc, and saw the word derivatives,Etf, and so on,so i'm coming back here i am too scared to be investing in them.

I wonder have the people here like dr bubb etc, have got their certifcates in their procession, are do they leave them in the brokers office's safe. Paranoia creeping in after reading Jim Sinclair methinks.

 

My broker has my certs/

But i deal with Canaccord, not shysters like Merrill Lynch

[ConvertedGoldBug]

I don't think I will sell mine at all, but my position is probably slightly different in that I have a comparatively small percentage of holdings in physical compared to mining equities. I syphon off equity profits to buy physical on occasion, partly as a precaution in case things get truly catastrophic, but mainly because it's sooooo shiny.

 

If I were to sell, it would probably be to a bullion dealer and it would be once the price has gone over $2000 (ie public mania phase). I suppose there are arguments to say that selling direct to the public during this phase would yield the best profits, as they will pay over the odds to get in on the game. However, the risks could be massive, even if you use (the very dodgy IMOP) e-bay.

 

I'd feel safer taking the hit below spot to a bullion dealer and selling in small clumps on the way up. I think when the time comes though, I'll have great difficulty parting from my shiny precious , that's why I'm mainly in mining shares, far easier to sell!

 

Ok, this could lead into another question, but as I'm currently holding ETF's (yes, I know the hardcore people's opinions on these), how is that any different if i'm expecting to sell into the rising market, rather than on the way down... where it could be discovered that not all the value of the ETF is backed by physical?

 

I mean, I could carry on with ETF's until the things get really dire, and then sell and convert to physical, or I could just make a bucket load in ETF's and sell and keep the cash (and but a gallon of petrol with the proceeds )

[marceau]

Just watching Working Lunch on BBC2, normally packed full of yesterdays information and banal, thoughtless analysis. Today is no different, but the market is trying desperately to educate them.

 

Presenter: Let's look at the week's biggest fallers. Oh, it's banks, retailers and builders.

 

Presenter: And the risers. It's miners and commodities. Erm, how can that be?

 

Presenter: And for the month.... Oh, it's the same. Hmmmmm....

 

At some point these thickos will understand that the game has changed, the market will force them to. Our day has not yet come, but it will. Until then, I'll continue to book under the radar profits and build positions.

[Tahoma]

I've noticed a few posters around who spreadbet on Gold and even Silver. I've got a question that is probably staggeringly daft - surely if you can put in fairly tight stops, you can keep placing bets until the market goes in the right direction and then coin it in? Is there some sort of compensator for when you have a tight stop in place that limits your potential winnings?

 

Not a gambling man myself.

[Pluto]

Top post by the regular; doubtless to be met with a 'get lost then' reposte by the hardly-moderate moderators. They are trying to 'make light' of the shotgun blast they gave themselves to the foot now, but reading between the lines they are papping themselves at the prospect of being left with a forum of 90% newbies on one side and RB on the other.

 

Edit: As I said, between the lines they are papping it - despite 'washing his hands' of the thread, Der Oldher will 'try re-opening it in a few days'. I'm not sure if Swarfega will remove Gold dust?

 

Edit 2: Sorry to whine on about this, but it gets my goat. CTT has just justified the banishment of the Gold thread because in a poll 'only a 144 votes cast and a membership of nearly 10,000' - the poll actually showed only 19% of these approved the de-facto censorship of Gold, considering the chain-of-consciousness pap that occupies the main forum.

 

He knows full well most of these members are inactive. Hell, most of them have probably been banned for whistling on a Tuesday, or other crimes.

 

Obviously mathematics, and specifically statistical analysis was not part of the curricula at moderator school.

[ConvertedGoldBug]

There are some threads like that,

 

But perhaps I should start another one in honor of all the new members.

Is there enough interest here?

 

That could be a good idea.

 

I'd be interested in putting some small amounts in a few select juniors.

 

And Goldfinger asked about this yesterday.

 

The trouble with trawling back through old threads is wondering how up-to-date any suggestions and recommendations are, and what the latest prospects are.

 

Maybe even categories into countries/exchanges that stocks are listed on, for those that don't have the facilities (or expertise) to invest in foreign markets.

[marceau]

I've noticed a few posters around who spreadbet on Gold and even Silver. I've got a question that is probably staggeringly daft - surely if you can put in fairly tight stops, you can keep placing bets until the market goes in the right direction and then coin it in? Is there some sort of compensator for when you have a tight stop in place that limits your potential winnings?

 

Not a gambling man myself.

 

 

I'm not a spreadbetter, but I know that very tight stops will get knocked out EVERY time, particularly in volatile markets like gold and silver. The market makers are very skillfull at knocking out stops and do it constantly.

 

You'll be knocked out before any rise takes place and once that's happened a few times, the commission fees and spreads will have severely reduced your capital.

[drbubb]

Hi DrBubb,

...my question is why sell parts of your portfolio to buy property?

I think you said HK property is currently going up about 1% per week?

 

But surely you've got fees and costs involved in buying property... and then all the hassles of finding tennants to pay the rent (mortgage?)... and the associated hassles of having to ensure the properties are maintained and problems sorted out (e.g. central heating breaks down)... and then the fees associated with selling the property if you forsee a market downturn...

 

Surely your trading accounts are more liquid when it comes to buying/selling than property is?

 

And I recall you stating one of your portfolios is up 1000% in 2-3 years(?), which is magnificent compared to the returns of 1% per week on property (~52% per year, excluding the fact that each week's 1% gain is on a larger amount due to the previous week's increase).

 

There's no guarantee that the boom in mining will continue, so i want to shift some of my wealth

into another investment area. I would like to get to 20-30% of my equity elsewhere by year end.

 

The 1% per week has been on the property value, so if you finance 65%, that's 3% per week, which

is 150% per annum return on equity. That's plenty good for me. In fact, I am running into problems

getting the loans I want (without more HK-source income), so i may gear at less than 65%.

 

I am now beginning to "trade up", buying larger and more expensive flats, while trying to sell the

smaller ones. Because I would prefer to have 5 or 6 more valuable ones in my portfolio, rather

than 9 or 10 cheaper ones. Having said that, i dont think it is smart to bet on the luxury market,

even though most people will tell you it is. I find myself a contrarian on that "common wisdom"

for reasons I can give, if you are interested

[marceau]

Obviously mathematics, and specifically statistical analysis was not on the curricula at moderator school.

 

 

CTT should go and work for the treasury, they'll like his kind of statistical interpretation there.

[drbubb]

I just been speaking with coininvestdirect.com and they were interested to know where I heard about them, so I told them about this thread and forum. They may be interested in advertising on this site and if they do it would be good to support them, and DrBubbs website too!

 

Okay,

you can have them PM me through this site, if they are willing

[Pluto]

Just watching Working Lunch on BBC2, normally packed full of yesterdays information and banal, thoughtless analysis. Today is no different, but the market is trying desperately to educate them.

 

Presenter: Let's look at the week's biggest fallers. Oh, it's banks, retailers and builders.

 

Presenter: And the risers. It's miners and commodities. Erm, how can that be?

 

Presenter: And for the month.... Oh, it's the same. Hmmmmm....

 

At some point these thickos will understand that the game has changed, the market will force them to. Our day has not yet come, but it will. Until then, I'll continue to book under the radar profits and build positions.

 

The same is true on CNBC. Let me see now, all the green arrows are commodities and currencies and everything else are red arrows pointing down. Hmmm... but wait the talking heads and their guests (paid shills) are herding the masses into Google, Apple, Cisco, and of course the financials that are a screaming buy. I have come the conclusion the Americans are just going to be poor and there is nothing they are prepared to do about it. They had a great chance this year with Ron Paul - but of course the media machine run by the elite herded them all into the Hillary, Obama, and McInsane pens.

[drbubb]

Just watching Working Lunch on BBC2,..., it's the same. Hmmmmm....

 

At some point these thickos will understand that the game has changed, the market will force them to. Our day has not yet come, but it will. Until then, I'll continue to book under the radar profits and build positions.

 

Leave them alone.

We need someone to be on the otehr side of our profitable trades,

and the thickos on the mainstream help to serve them up

[Pluto]

There's no guarantee that the boom in mining will continue, so i want to shift some of my wealth

into another investment area. I would like to get to 20-30% of my equity elsewhere by year end.

 

The 1% per week has been on the property value, so if you finance 65%, that's 3% per week, which

is 150% per annum return on equity. That's plenty good for me. In fact, I am running into problems

getting the loans I want (without more HK-source income), so i may gear at less than 65%.

 

I am now beginning to "trade up", buying larger and more expensive flats, while trying to sell the

smaller ones. Because I would prefer to have 5 or 6 more valuable ones in my portfolio, rather

than 9 or 10 cheaper ones. Having said that, i dont think it is smart to bet on the luxury market,

even though most people will tell you it is. I find myself a contrarian on that "common wisdom"

for reasons I can give, if you are interested

 

Bubb, is there anyway of playing the HK property market from the US?

[No6]

I'm not a spreadbetter, but I know that very tight stops will get knocked out EVERY time, particularly in volatile markets like gold and silver. The market makers are very skillfull at knocking out stops and do it constantly.

 

You'll be knocked out before any rise takes place and once that's happened a few times, the commission fees and spreads will have severely reduced your capital.

 

I think to some degree that is true, you can get taken out very quickly, unless you move your stops. With tight stops your timing has to be perfect every time or you are trying to scalp a few points. I had a 25 point stop on a trade on the DOW the other night and it was taken out in 4 minutes. A minute later the market went in my direction, but I chose not to move the stop because of the risk of further loss. Some you win, some you lose! On tight stops you will probably lose a lot unless you are quick.

[drbubb]

Bubb, is there anyway of playing the HK property market from the US?

 

You can buy some builders, and some property co's

 

I like Playmates Holdings

[Pluto]

The US jobs report in 25 mins is going to be huge. Any downer and the market is going to tank hard. Gold = $1,000 could happen today. Brace yourselves...

[azazel]

Okay,

you can have them PM me through this site, if they are willing

 

Ok I will see what I can do. Hopefully it will contribute to all the rocket picture bandwidth needed

[drbubb]

TODAYs Summary...

 

Gartman Says

 

· charts on page one show DJIA entering a bearish consolidation pattern following its break from a multi-year bullish trend; EUR vs. the USD has broken through upper resistance, and now there is no further resistance to deal with (1.53 within sight and 1.58 a reasonable longer term target); April WTI crude – a moon shot.

 

· comments on the Fed’s new found transparency, and suggests that perhaps now enough is enough as confusion is reigning regarding the Fed’s focus or lack of coordinated opinion.

 

· covers the situation breaking out in South America as Colombia has attacked FARC rebels in Ecuador , and Ecuador has asked Venezuela for help in reigning in Colombia . Brazil is also being asked to get involved. An oil pipeline was hit, but damage was limited.

 

· equities globally are higher, especially in Asia , responding positively to the Ambac situation (new financing, no bankruptcy). Sees the current rally as “corrective” in nature, and nothing more, as the major trend remains negative (200 day MA is downward, and is seen in global markets, not just local ones).

 

· Recommendations: long gold (8 units) and short US equities (4 units); long natural gas (3 units) and short crude oil (3 units).

 

 

Company Upgrades/Downgrades

 

Rating changes on US companies:

 

Tyson raised to “buy” at Merrill Lynch

 

First Horizon removed from “Conviction Sell List”, still “sell” at Goldman Sachs

 

Forward Air Corp raised to “outperform” at Robert Baird

 

IPC the Hospitalist new “buy” at Jefferies

 

Aviva raised to “overweight” at Lehman Bros

 

Penn West Energy raised to “buy” at Merrill Lynch

 

Petro-Canada raised to “buy” at Merrill Lynch

 

Canadian Oil Sands raised to “buy” at Merrill Lynch

 

Suncor Energy raised to “buy” at Merrill Lynch

 

Fluor raised to “buy” at Citigroup

 

Oracle reinstated “buy” at Goldman Sachs

 

McDermott raised to “buy” at Citigroup

 

Saks cut to “neutral” at Banc of America

[Pluto]

You can buy some builders, and some property co's

 

I like Playmates Holdings

 

Do they trade on any US exchange?