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Not today the USDX 80.7!!!

 

Yep, as I said.... at a later date!!!

 

Edit: The dollar, like the titanic, will go straight up in the air before finally sinking. :)

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If the dollar does continue to climb, with all the repatriated money and flight into treasuries, it will be a great buying opportunity for gold. That is, if in turn, the debt imbalances catch up with the dollar to drag it down.

 

This will take some guts and conviction IMO. This gold bull will not be plain sailing. :)

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Not today the USDX 80.7!!!

 

USD is going hihger, EUR/USD just broke 1.3850 support, now it will complete the wave C to around 1.2900 , this will give USD more force. Not sure if this gains on the dollar will be bearish for gold though.

 

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It is all about deflation at the moment. That is what the market is focusing on and is flying to "safety" in the dollar.

 

The gold bull's day will come when the dollar starts to dive. We see the logic of inflation.. but that will only bite at a later date.

 

As James Turk nicely described it; if we had a dollar gold standard we would now be having massive deflation. We don't, so will have to be hyper inflation. QED

 

:unsure: And these savers flocking to ireland can't be much good for old sterling

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As James Turk nicely described it; if we had a dollar gold standard we would now be having massive deflation. We don't, so will have to be hyper inflation. QED

 

:unsure:And these savers flocking to ireland can't be much good for old sterling

 

Is this the beginning of capital flight? Could be fatal for the pound if unchecked. Maybe Gordon will just have to come out and back-stop all the banks.

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Is this the beginning of capital flight? Could be fatal for the pound if unchecked. Maybe Gordon will just have to come out and back-stop all the banks.

Good article here by Eric Janzen on capital flight and the depreciation of a currency.

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1222841580.php

We called our theory Ka-Poom Theory. It defines two distinct crisis periods. One, a six to 12 month period of disinflation (Ka) that typically proceeds a sharp inflationary (Poom) period of repatriation of capital by foreign investors and capital flight by residents. Repatriation and flight both cause and result from currency depreciation in a rapid, self-reinforcing process.

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I think we are at a point now where the delationary worries hold sway, but as Jonathon Ruffer (back in July) below points out; this is the precursor to a serious bout of inflation.

 

We will turn in a moment to our assessment of what is going on in the world, but first let us declare a plague on both the houses in the current inflation/deflation debate. The inflation camp is largely occupied by those who to a greater or lesser extent are optimistic about the outlook. The credit crunch, they concede, was massively dislocative, and has had a dampening effect on the economy. Growth has slowed, and may well slow further, but the dislocation is essentially behind us and we can look forward to better times. Alas, the inflationists acknowledge, the world must get used to a higher cost of food, of energy and of other forms of materiel; no longer will Chinese goods be a driver for lower prices. Inflation for them is the parrot on the shoulder of Captain Hook and his 3% growth per annum. The deflationists will have none of this. The credit-creation mechanism is broken they say, and 60 years of leverage must be reversed. This is the mistral feared by the shepherd-economists: a wind which freezes asset values, economic endeavour and threatens the very stability of capitalism. It is deflation which we must fear - and the excess demand for oil and other goods will soon wither away in the icy conditions. The deflationists are (as described) spot-on, as far as they go - but we have often observed that inflation can be brought about in deflationary times by a compromise of the currency. Paper currencies are not anchored to anything whose scarcity allows them to hold their value: trees grow a-plenty. If Bernanke chooses to compromise the Dollar, then it will show itself in a rise in domestic prices. This is the plan - for America. It is an attempt to reproduce on an international stage the 'stagflation' of Britain in the 1970s. Prices go up, interest rates stay low so that the over-borrowed are subsidised and the astute or lucky player who was in cash when the locusts appeared, finds that he is penalised by receiving less in interest payments than he loses in inflation. In short, the lender is the one who subsidises the borrower. This we articulated in our April review. The last three months have reinforced the thought that Bernanke is set on this course. But the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are not with him, and are indeed pulling in quite the opposite direction. Why should this be so? The twin fears of deflation and inflation rise up like a rock and a hard place at the moment. Which course to steer is, it seems, dependent on the folk-memories and fears of the helmsman. For helmsman Bernanke, the bogey-man is the 1930s depression in the United States, brought about by Central Bank inaction as deflationary forces multiplied and spread. The solution for Bernanke is therefore a world where interest rates can be held below the inflation rate, and inflation generated by currency compromise at a time when prices might be expected to behave in a deflationary fashion. Britain's secondary banking crisis showed the efficacy of negative real interest rates. For Bernanke therefore, Britain's stagflation in the 1970s is a solution. Alas, the bogey-man for the Bank of England is the self-same circumstance - a world where the English remember the wholesale incompetence of economists and bankers alike (Messrs Gordon Richardson and Jasper Hollom's lifeboat a shining exception to this). The present team will do anything in their power to prevent its recurrence. When Sir Mervyn King and his deputy governors talk of fighting inflation, alas, they mean it. The ECB plays the same inflation-busting tune, but less culpably: they do it to establish their credentials as warriors of free thought, and, as for a regiment, battle honours are more important than the outcome of the battle itself.

 

International money flows are no longer favourable to a unilateral attempt by Bernanke to bring about this necessary result. In the good times, the oversupply of dollars which resulted from the Fed's loose policy was reinvested in the US fixed-interest market. Now the emerging markets, who are the recipients of excess dollars, prefer to recycle those dollars into 'real' assets like oil and wheat. Rising prices of such staples quickly change domestic inflation expectations in America, and compromise bond market yields. This worsens the squeeze in credit markets. This has meant that Bernanke has had to pause in his fight to use loose money to keep the economy in order. The rhetoric has increased: a table-thumping diatribe for sound money, although nothing has been done to restrain money growth or put up interest rates. Nevertheless, it has ensured that in the last few critical weeks, the economy has had no help and this has translated into extremely messy markets as the economy weakens sharply. This is the background to the world that we see going forward. ........

If, in the early autumn, the world looks to be succumbing to deflation, then we would expect all three central banks to respond vigorously with expansive policies, and our primary view will swing back again.

.....

We remain of the view that a deflationary scare will provide a last - and possibly the best - opportunity to put in place a full protection against tomorrow's challenge: inflation.

 

http://www.ruffer.co.uk/services/review.aspx

 

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Don't panic, we'll be at $3,000 / oz before long, according to scary botox woman and faux news.

 

yamada_main.jpg

 

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/pop...&ch=1316259

 

I hope that is the right URL, it's in a little popup window on the front page of Yahoo! finance.

 

It's a good listen, but the guest is one of the scariest looking women I've ever seen. She's 95 going on 32, and obviously on first name terms with her plastic surgeon.

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Don't panic, we'll be at $3,000 / oz before long, according to scary botox woman and faux news.

 

yamada_main.jpg

 

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/pop...&ch=1316259

 

I hope that is the right URL, it's in a little popup window on the front page of Yahoo! finance.

 

It's a good listen, but the guest is one of the scariest looking women I've ever seen. She's 95 going on 32, and obviously on first name terms with her plastic surgeon.

 

Nahh... don't like to listen to freaky astrological looking cosmos lady... Thanks anyway. :)

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Was down at ATS today, no queues, two other customers

whilst I was there.

 

Very low on stocks, and they 'had been busy'.

Chatting to the guy, he mentioned the Guardian article.

 

Apparently, they only had a 'few words' and next thing they were on the

front page of the Grauniad.

Not too pleased, as they prefer to be discreet for obvious reasons.

 

Apparently photographers had arrived this morning to photograph the

queues of people trying to buy gold, but there were none.

 

Draw your own conclusions.

 

ABB

 

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Was down at ATS today, no queues, two other customers

whilst I was there.

 

Very low on stocks, and they 'had been busy'.

Chatting to the guy, he mentioned the Guardian article.

 

Apparently, they only had a 'few words' and next thing they were on the

front page of the Grauniad.

Not too pleased, as they prefer to be discreet for obvious reasons.

 

Apparently photographers had arrived this morning to photograph the

queues of people trying to buy gold, but there were none.

 

Draw your own conclusions.

 

ABB

 

Cunning subterfugal plan by the PTB to dupe us contrarian-minded gold bugs out of our gold? :blink:

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Cunning subterfugal plan by the PTB to dupe us contrarian-minded gold bugs out of our gold? :blink:

Too paranoid for me - I thought it more likely to have

been part of a media scare campaign to rally support

for taxpayer funded bailouts.

The MSM has been in overdrive on that particular topic.

ABB

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Too paranoid for me - I thought it more likely to have

been part of a media scare campaign to rally support

for taxpayer funded bailouts.

The MSM has been in overdrive on that particular topic.

ABB

 

Nahhh.. just being fatuous :P

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Gold shares (GDX) - has broken down, with gold's fall below $850, and fallen back to OTP point near $xx

 

aa0ta6.gif

 

This is in a bad news background:

+ Merrill is talking about a fall in oil back to $50 - if we see global recessiom,

+ Factory orders fell 4%

 

The good news for gold bulls is the low volume on this slide

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Gold shares (GDX) - has broken down, with gold's fall below $850, and fallen back to OTP point near $xx

 

aa0ta6.gif

 

This is in a bad news background:

+ Merrill is talking about a fall in oil back to $50 - if we see global recessiom,

+ Factory orders fell 4%

 

The good news for gold bulls is the low volume on this slide

 

Yep, I am seeing a big deflationary slump in the pipes here.

 

Great buying opportunity as am convinced that the dollar is unsound.

 

We could be in for one hell of a bull ride here,

 

Edit: Also with the plan expected to be passed by Congess, the market could be less concerned about the banking crisis though still in the midst of a deflationary scare.

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you could buy a bit cautiously today.

but look at the intraday chart, and try to pick a short term reverse head and shoulders with the right volume set-up

 

and be prepared for possible retest of those lows- hopefully on lighter volume

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I am heavily weighted in gold... literally... I wish!... umm, so will only buy on a big dip. It could possibly go back down to levels we saw a few weeks back if not now in the near future.

 

Edited

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Gold shares (GDX) - has broken down, with gold's fall below $850, and fallen back to OTP point near $xx

 

aa0ta6.gif

 

This is in a bad news background:

+ Merrill is talking about a fall in oil back to $50 - if we see global recessiom,

+ Factory orders fell 4%

 

The good news for gold bulls is the low volume on this slide

 

same chart for gold

aa5ln9.gif

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The low volume suggests a low?

 

Doesn't always work, jnrs getting lowr and lower on lower and lower volume.

 

Chart to me looks like it wants to retest 79 ($800)

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