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agreed.

i woke up at 3am, to buy some gold shares before the ny close

 

yes, those higher libor rates are having an impact,

and if they suddenly drop, gold go go below support.

hence i bought in-the-money calls

 

To be clear, do you think this suggests the price of gold will fall heavily?

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I'm starting to worry that we are being played:

- institutions need to realise their assets (gold) by selling

- this will place a temporary downward pressure on price

- public stirred up to take some of the slack.

 

Would explain the short-term downwards movements despite the public interest.

 

Long term it matters not - physical gold will be increasingly needed to back debt.

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I'm starting to worry that we are being played:

- institutions need to realise their assets (gold) by selling

- this will place a temporary downward pressure on price

- public stirred up to take some of the slack.

 

Would explain the short-term downwards movements despite the public interest.

 

Long term it matters not - physical gold will be increasingly needed to back debt.

 

Also, high valuations seem to be turning the very important Indian market into net sellers rather than buyers, even in the festival season. Never heard of that before: Your gold will get you lesser than before...

 

"....Sellers making a kill

 

Jewellers in Zaveri Bazaar say that the selling trend among retail customers has increased by around 40 per cent since September 18 – the day gold rates soared by a record high of Rs 1,265 (over 10 per cent) in a single day.

 

“All those people who purchase jewellery at Rs 11,500 levels in mid-August are waiting for the best price to sell,” said Bhoopad Jain of Jugraj Kantilal and Co – one of the largest gold buying stores at Zaveri Bazaar.

 

Jain said that the selling movement kicked off after gold touched 12,000 levels. Until then, 10 per cent of people were selling gold, and the rest were buying, but now 30 per cent are buying, and 70 per cent of the customers are selling gold. ........"

 

 

I know many here think that the physical gold markets of India and the East are irrelevant, but I belive they are the only thing that puts a bottom on the PoG. If they start to sell, they have loads of it, so could put a top on the price as well.

 

 

Greeting all, btw! I go away for a couple of weeks, hearing rumours of turmoil, but when I get back, everything seems to cost much the same as when I left!

 

 

 

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To be clear, do you think this suggests the price of gold will fall heavily?

You only buy call options if you expect price to rise.

BUT by buying an in the money option you limit your risk if the price drops below the strike price of the option.

 

It's like having a stop-loss in place but has the advantage of not "tripping" like a stop does. So if the price falls and then recovers you don't lose out.

 

In fact, why aren't I buying calls?! :)

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I think what is more likely is that journalists seem to be more overworked (or lazy, who can tell) these days and tend to repeat press releases and Associated Press reports rather than actually investigating anything. That's why suddenly Sky, the BBC and all the papers will all be talking about the same thing, as the AP have issued a press release that gold is interesting today.

Also journalists who write the 'right things' (i.e. toe the line that the editor / paper owner expects) are employed and then promoted. Those who speak out against the interests of the owners end up jobless (i.e. don't slag off 4x4's in the Guardian too much as car companies make up 1/4 of the advertising revenue for the paper).

 

I think it has never been easier for those in power to get any message they want out.

 

Agreed.

The same mechanism can be seen on an enormous scale, in the role of the media in the debt boom. Not many wouldn't argue that this is a very serious example of incomplete information but many still deny market failure and blame the problems on too much government invervention.

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Dan Norcini on paper gold sales, shortage of physical and how much attention to pay to TA.

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...ld1230pmCDT.pdf

 

Keep in mind that these technical levels are of not much use right now given the emotional, unthinking reaction by so many investors

 

Well what do you expect? he's looking for bullish signals in a downtrend. Would failure to achieve these signals not indicate a bearish market?

 

If this current move goes to test "bubbs bottom™", it could indicate a H & S with a drooping shoulder. The result of which could be quite severe :(

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right now it is a good oportunity to take a position, we holded at 820 (still need another retest within the next 10 minutes, but i think it will hold) , however it is still risky to get a position because we have no volume. This is like buying oil at 90.50 about 2 weeks ago, next week we should go higher, because euro needs to retest the higher band if its downtrend channel. no charts, yet, sorry

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http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/

 

Y'all may not be aware of it, but according to The Moneychanger Bank Liquidity Analysis, when the liabilities of the entire banking system are compared to the reserves of the entire banking system, the banks have about 69 cents for every $100 they owe in deposits. Admittedly, that's out of date a bit, because when the Fed discontinued publishing M3 figures, I couldn't figure it any longer. Shoot, by now they probably have 71, maybe even 73 cents.

And the Nice Government Men are worried about bank runs, you bet your life. That's why they raised the FDIC insurance deposit limit from $100,000 per account to $250,000 per account. Little known fact: banks have no cash. Literally. Haven't kept it for years. Greed decrees they keep no reserves, but put everything "to work," so why miss interest by keeping cash lying around in the vault. Illiquidity, thy name is bank! Now rumours of a banking holiday abound, when the government closes down the banks for a week or so to cool off the depositors' frantic desires to see their money again, foolish hoi polloi that they are.

Now, look here: The U.S. dollar index rose 74.6 basis points today, and early in the day was up over 81. Sure, sure, that's logical to me: entire U.S. and world financial system leans over the brink of meltdown, U.S. Congress is deadlocked over whether it will consent to bailing out the banks, nobody is in charge, derivatives collapse threatens worldwide financial holocaust, Fed & Treasury are intent on pushing thru more bailouts that will suck value out of a dollar like an otter sucks clams out of their shell AND the U.S. dollar rises. Sure, sure, sure.

And of course, silver and gold prices fall. The gold price dropped a colossal US$41.70 to US$839 while the silver price flushed 165.5 cents to $11.065. Sure, sure, that always happens when the world threatens a financial tsunami, everybody runs to sell gold. Right. The gold price has been driven back under its 200 day moving average. Ditto the silver price. Right.

Meanwhile stocks, are represented by the Dow Jones Industrial average, sank by 348.22 to 10, 482.85 or 3.2%.

What's the sum of these counter-intuitive moves? Why, my dear, somebody is "painting the tape" to make things look better than they really are. Now who would do such a thing? What to do? In case it hasn't been beaten into your skull yet, the Fed and the U.S. Treasury will inflate their way out of this crisis, even if they have to push money out of, well, helicopters as Ben Bernanke suggested in 2002.

When they do, silver and gold prices will soar. Right now (sorry for sounding conspiratorial, but it's not paranoid when there really is one) they must keep the lid on metals and pump the dollar. All without any will, they are offering you an escape route: buy all the silver & gold you can buy.

To give you an idea of what the real prices are, as opposed to the paper prices, if you wanted to buy the cheapest gold coins today, you would have paid US$878.76 an ounce (for Mexican 50 pesos) and for silver you would have had to pay $13.38 (for one ounce rounds). Of course, that's in the real world, not the government-run world.

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right now it is a good oportunity to take a position, we holded at 820 (still need another retest within the next 10 minutes, but i think it will hold) , however it is still risky to get a position because we have no volume. This is like buying oil at 90.50 about 2 weeks ago, next week we should go higher, because euro needs to retest the higher band if its downtrend channel. no charts, yet, sorry

 

Your last two calls have been excellent, Ker, I hope you traded them.

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Isn't the selling based on the likelihood that the bailout will go through? It only needs 12 people to change their minds.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/A...ory/711199.html

 

The bill will probably go through. Yet, I liken it to the old man with a blanket to small for him; pulls it to one side of himself only to expose the other. :lol:

 

Got to be tough to please all those dissenters.

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Your last two calls have been excellent, Ker, I hope you traded them.

 

sure, i put my money where my mouth is :)

bottom is in guys, pessimistic outlook is that 820 would be retested again, optimistic, is that today we close above 845 and london drives it down to 830 on monday, after that we should go above 920 as minimum

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