azazel Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 agreed. i woke up at 3am, to buy some gold shares before the ny close yes, those higher libor rates are having an impact, and if they suddenly drop, gold go go below support. hence i bought in-the-money calls To be clear, do you think this suggests the price of gold will fall heavily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I'm starting to worry that we are being played: - institutions need to realise their assets (gold) by selling - this will place a temporary downward pressure on price - public stirred up to take some of the slack. Would explain the short-term downwards movements despite the public interest. Long term it matters not - physical gold will be increasingly needed to back debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I'm starting to worry that we are being played: - institutions need to realise their assets (gold) by selling - this will place a temporary downward pressure on price - public stirred up to take some of the slack. Would explain the short-term downwards movements despite the public interest. Long term it matters not - physical gold will be increasingly needed to back debt. Also, high valuations seem to be turning the very important Indian market into net sellers rather than buyers, even in the festival season. Never heard of that before: Your gold will get you lesser than before... "....Sellers making a kill Jewellers in Zaveri Bazaar say that the selling trend among retail customers has increased by around 40 per cent since September 18 – the day gold rates soared by a record high of Rs 1,265 (over 10 per cent) in a single day. “All those people who purchase jewellery at Rs 11,500 levels in mid-August are waiting for the best price to sell,” said Bhoopad Jain of Jugraj Kantilal and Co – one of the largest gold buying stores at Zaveri Bazaar. Jain said that the selling movement kicked off after gold touched 12,000 levels. Until then, 10 per cent of people were selling gold, and the rest were buying, but now 30 per cent are buying, and 70 per cent of the customers are selling gold. ........" I know many here think that the physical gold markets of India and the East are irrelevant, but I belive they are the only thing that puts a bottom on the PoG. If they start to sell, they have loads of it, so could put a top on the price as well. Greeting all, btw! I go away for a couple of weeks, hearing rumours of turmoil, but when I get back, everything seems to cost much the same as when I left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 To be clear, do you think this suggests the price of gold will fall heavily? You only buy call options if you expect price to rise. BUT by buying an in the money option you limit your risk if the price drops below the strike price of the option. It's like having a stop-loss in place but has the advantage of not "tripping" like a stop does. So if the price falls and then recovers you don't lose out. In fact, why aren't I buying calls?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Having caught up with the last two or three pages of this thread, I'm left on balance feeling like the PoG is heading south for now. Is that a fair assessment of people's average feelings (assuming one can average feelings! )? Also: British Bulls on Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I think what is more likely is that journalists seem to be more overworked (or lazy, who can tell) these days and tend to repeat press releases and Associated Press reports rather than actually investigating anything. That's why suddenly Sky, the BBC and all the papers will all be talking about the same thing, as the AP have issued a press release that gold is interesting today. Also journalists who write the 'right things' (i.e. toe the line that the editor / paper owner expects) are employed and then promoted. Those who speak out against the interests of the owners end up jobless (i.e. don't slag off 4x4's in the Guardian too much as car companies make up 1/4 of the advertising revenue for the paper). I think it has never been easier for those in power to get any message they want out. Agreed. The same mechanism can be seen on an enormous scale, in the role of the media in the debt boom. Not many wouldn't argue that this is a very serious example of incomplete information but many still deny market failure and blame the problems on too much government invervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Is it just me, or is BV's gold price chart not working this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Is it just me, or is BV's gold price chart not working this morning? yup, it's rubber-ducked for me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 CoinInvestDirect must be nearly out of kilo bars: Gold Bullion Name: Gold Content: Buy Price: Netto Price: Brutto Price: 1000 gramm bullion 1000.00 Gramm £15,175.75 £15,766.17 £15,766.17 the spread: GBP 591 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Dan Norcini on paper gold sales, shortage of physical and how much attention to pay to TA. http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...ld1230pmCDT.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Dan Norcini on paper gold sales, shortage of physical and how much attention to pay to TA. http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...ld1230pmCDT.pdf Keep in mind that these technical levels are of not much use right now given the emotional, unthinking reaction by so many investors Well what do you expect? he's looking for bullish signals in a downtrend. Would failure to achieve these signals not indicate a bearish market? If this current move goes to test "bubbs bottom™", it could indicate a H & S with a drooping shoulder. The result of which could be quite severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Chips, I hear you mate. CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I'm starting to worry that we are being played: - institutions need to realise their assets (gold) by selling ... What institutions would that be please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Gold hitting the big time again! Going for Gold to make TV return http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hc...knBsBH8xti80Rbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 What institutions would that be please? I've been trying to work out who's selling gold at the moment too, but I've not found anything yet, so if anyone finds anything please post up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomas Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Into the $820's Maybe...... "....institutions need to realise their assets (gold) by selling" has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 right now it is a good oportunity to take a position, we holded at 820 (still need another retest within the next 10 minutes, but i think it will hold) , however it is still risky to get a position because we have no volume. This is like buying oil at 90.50 about 2 weeks ago, next week we should go higher, because euro needs to retest the higher band if its downtrend channel. no charts, yet, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/ Y'all may not be aware of it, but according to The Moneychanger Bank Liquidity Analysis, when the liabilities of the entire banking system are compared to the reserves of the entire banking system, the banks have about 69 cents for every $100 they owe in deposits. Admittedly, that's out of date a bit, because when the Fed discontinued publishing M3 figures, I couldn't figure it any longer. Shoot, by now they probably have 71, maybe even 73 cents. And the Nice Government Men are worried about bank runs, you bet your life. That's why they raised the FDIC insurance deposit limit from $100,000 per account to $250,000 per account. Little known fact: banks have no cash. Literally. Haven't kept it for years. Greed decrees they keep no reserves, but put everything "to work," so why miss interest by keeping cash lying around in the vault. Illiquidity, thy name is bank! Now rumours of a banking holiday abound, when the government closes down the banks for a week or so to cool off the depositors' frantic desires to see their money again, foolish hoi polloi that they are. Now, look here: The U.S. dollar index rose 74.6 basis points today, and early in the day was up over 81. Sure, sure, that's logical to me: entire U.S. and world financial system leans over the brink of meltdown, U.S. Congress is deadlocked over whether it will consent to bailing out the banks, nobody is in charge, derivatives collapse threatens worldwide financial holocaust, Fed & Treasury are intent on pushing thru more bailouts that will suck value out of a dollar like an otter sucks clams out of their shell AND the U.S. dollar rises. Sure, sure, sure. And of course, silver and gold prices fall. The gold price dropped a colossal US$41.70 to US$839 while the silver price flushed 165.5 cents to $11.065. Sure, sure, that always happens when the world threatens a financial tsunami, everybody runs to sell gold. Right. The gold price has been driven back under its 200 day moving average. Ditto the silver price. Right. Meanwhile stocks, are represented by the Dow Jones Industrial average, sank by 348.22 to 10, 482.85 or 3.2%. What's the sum of these counter-intuitive moves? Why, my dear, somebody is "painting the tape" to make things look better than they really are. Now who would do such a thing? What to do? In case it hasn't been beaten into your skull yet, the Fed and the U.S. Treasury will inflate their way out of this crisis, even if they have to push money out of, well, helicopters as Ben Bernanke suggested in 2002. When they do, silver and gold prices will soar. Right now (sorry for sounding conspiratorial, but it's not paranoid when there really is one) they must keep the lid on metals and pump the dollar. All without any will, they are offering you an escape route: buy all the silver & gold you can buy. To give you an idea of what the real prices are, as opposed to the paper prices, if you wanted to buy the cheapest gold coins today, you would have paid US$878.76 an ounce (for Mexican 50 pesos) and for silver you would have had to pay $13.38 (for one ounce rounds). Of course, that's in the real world, not the government-run world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 right now it is a good oportunity to take a position, we holded at 820 (still need another retest within the next 10 minutes, but i think it will hold) , however it is still risky to get a position because we have no volume. This is like buying oil at 90.50 about 2 weeks ago, next week we should go higher, because euro needs to retest the higher band if its downtrend channel. no charts, yet, sorry Your last two calls have been excellent, Ker, I hope you traded them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I've been trying to work out who's selling gold at the moment too, but I've not found anything yet, so if anyone finds anything please post up. Isn't the selling based on the likelihood that the bailout will go through? It only needs 12 people to change their minds. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/A...ory/711199.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Isn't the selling based on the likelihood that the bailout will go through? It only needs 12 people to change their minds. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/A...ory/711199.html The bill will probably go through. Yet, I liken it to the old man with a blanket to small for him; pulls it to one side of himself only to expose the other. Got to be tough to please all those dissenters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Your last two calls have been excellent, Ker, I hope you traded them. sure, i put my money where my mouth is bottom is in guys, pessimistic outlook is that 820 would be retested again, optimistic, is that today we close above 845 and london drives it down to 830 on monday, after that we should go above 920 as minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lardoon Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 well I put my money where my mouth is also (sold at 840) and I am saying that if the bill is passed (which I would be very surprised it does not) Gold will dip below 820. What time is the result of the vote btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 well I put my money where my mouth is also (sold at 840) and I am saying that if the bill is passed (which I would be very surprised it does not) Gold will dip below 820. What time is the result of the vote btw? It's passed http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=64408 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lardoon Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 It's passed gosh a bit sloppy from my part... well I was wrong gold is not tanking... yet lets see what happens now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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