CharlieSays Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Did they work out if it was 700 Bn a month or total in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Did they work out if it was 700 Bn a month or total in the end? Don't forget bank reserve requirements to zero too... (did that get in?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lardoon Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Did they work out if it was 700 Bn a month or total in the end? As contradictory as it may seem I think this bill will be beneficial to the dollar in the short-term as it makes the US financial system "appear" safer (ie more backing from the govt) on top of the deflationary bust which will make the senior world currency (dollar) appreciate. Not sure what the impact this will have on gold... I think this bill wil remove some short-term fear from the market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 well I put my money where my mouth is also (sold at 840) and I am saying that if the bill is passed (which I would be very surprised it does not) Gold will dip below 820. i stoped out, the bearish move is not yet finished. now waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lardoon Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 i stoped out, the bearish move is not yet finished. now waiting where do you see it going now? Its breaking out of the BB20 on the downside on the 1hr chart and broke the MM20 on the daily chart... sorry I am crap at screenshots.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Did they work out if it was 700 Bn a month or total in the end? Don't forget bank reserve requirements to zero too... (did that get in?) I'm not 100% certian, but I think it is mostly unchanged from last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falling fool Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Goldman Sachs Goes Net Long Gold on TOCOM Just wondering if this is significant in the grand scheme of things or am I clutching at straws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Goldman Sachs Goes Net Long Gold on TOCOM Just wondering if this is significant in the grand scheme of things or am I clutching at straws? They got it wrong in Q1 2003 - hope they've got it right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Respectfully, BS. Sky news, BBCnews 24, radio 4 and radio 2 all running stories on gold when there are other major stories they could cover. Its hardly a no news day, is it? Some may have worked in a news room but have you worked with the lords that govern the BBC? What do you think they do all day? Yes I'm skeptical of the world around me but for good reasons! Azazel/Johann, In my less than humble opinion you should both watch the below, Chomsky educates a young(er) Andrew Marr on how you don't need to be a red-in-tooth-and-claw conspiracy theorist to explain how the media is manipulated (by itself as much as anything). Marr's inability to counter Chomsky's arguments (they've obviously never occurred to him) or even frame his questions particularly well is evident in Marr's frustration. It's long, and in three parts but worth it, notable is Chomsky's suggestion that the "better" journos do try and get things past the system when they think the system won't notice it. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=FSuaGIKTaEA&...feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 where do you see it going now? Its breaking out of the BB20 on the downside on the 1hr chart and broke the MM20 on the daily chart... sorry I am crap at screenshots.. ok, here you have it: i am bullish until it don't show signs that 820 is dead, if it dies, we are going to see 750 or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 ok, here you have it: oops, my mistake, the 'current support' line should be drawn at 828 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lardoon Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Goldman Sachs Goes Net Long Gold on TOCOM Just wondering if this is significant in the grand scheme of things or am I clutching at straws? This might not be... because they have other positions which are not reported, so you cant assume their overall net position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I think what is more likely is that journalists seem to be more overworked (or lazy, who can tell) these days and tend to repeat press releases and Associated Press reports rather than actually investigating anything. That's why suddenly Sky, the BBC and all the papers will all be talking about the same thing, as the AP have issued a press release that gold is interesting today. Also journalists who write the 'right things' (i.e. toe the line that the editor / paper owner expects) are employed and then promoted. Those who speak out against the interests of the owners end up jobless (i.e. don't slag off 4x4's in the Guardian too much as car companies make up 1/4 of the advertising revenue for the paper). I think it has never been easier for those in power to get any message they want out. It's always interesting to look at stories in Google news and compare the language used, often you can spot a key phrase that is repeated word for word or almost so across all the papers/websites, do a google search on it and you'll find the press release that all the journos cut and pasted from. News is a business and if Press Releases take a journo 20 mins to read digest and reword into an article then his/her productivity is up and they can look to write another in the time that a 'real' investigative journalist has produced sweet FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falling fool Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 This might not be... because they have other positions which are not reported, so you cant assume their overall net position sure, as one of the reply's points out - "Seems like they would have a lot more than 28 long contracts if they thought gold was about to explode, though." Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Johan vds, I fully agree. Having worked in Govt. news for a while, I do find the idea that the 'Men in Grey Suits' can set the news agenda to this level absolutely laughable. [Either that or myself and all I worked with were news muppets whilst the 'real' Men in Grey Suits sat, unknown to me, in a secret office far closer to Downing Street than mine was (ooh, about 150 yards).] No, I reckon we are spotting a bit of mainstream interest in gold. Everyone is nervous about where to put their money. Don't forget, most people on a board like this spot every story on Gold in the mainstream press because we are looking for them (perhaps to confirm our prejudices?). Only a small percentage of people read the Guardian/listen to Radio 4 and only a smaller percentage of those would have (i) read/listened to these stories and (ii) acted upon them. Eh? You're seriously suggesting that if the PMOS briefed that gold was a better investment than shares it wouldn't be across every media outlet the very next day? (i'm not suggesting he would, or ever did.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lardoon Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 sure, as one of the reply's points out - "Seems like they would have a lot more than 28 long contracts if they thought gold was about to explode, though." Thanks Here is David Morgan's take on Futures position reports: How surprised are you that the COT report covering the vicious 8/15 sell-off shows that small traders went more net long than the big four? Would you interpret that to mean the big four are truly trapped or that there’s still more significant downside to come? Comment: Somewhat surprised, but I do not make as big a commotion about this as some others, because we DO NOT KNOW the real positions of these entities in the Over the Counter Derivatives (OTC) market. No one makes much noise about this simple fact. The OTC market dwarfs the transparent market—COMEX—and we could have a situation where the big four as you call them might be long without having to disclose that fact to anyone. Remember the LBMA market (London Bullion) trades tons of “paper” silver, so the simple truth is we really have a hard time forecasting who owns what, when, and where. I also recommend a read of Fekete's articles where he dismisses Ted Butler's claims of naked shorting by the "big 4". Not sure if true but that makes for a balanced view... Economist and monetary historian Antal E. Fekete contends that there is not a big concentrated naked short position in silver, as silver market analyst Ted Butler long has concluded from commodities exchange data. No, Fekete believes that the silver behind the enormous short positions is out there, somewhere, just not in commodities exchange warehouses, and that the major listed short sellers are actually agents of all sorts of silver holders who are profitably putting their metal to work in the trading pits. At least Fekete seems to agree with Butler that the silver market might benefit from greater transparency, since, apparently, Fekete’s innocent scenario and Butler’s sinister one would look the same on the books of the exchanges. http://oikonomikablog.wordpress.com/2008/0...naked-bogeyman/ http://www.kitco.com/ind/fekete/sep252007.html http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/f.../2004/0503.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisP Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 alright, sorry to keep banging on about this but here is a perfect example of what I mean. From Doug Casey's subscriber letter: The market took a frightful beating yesterday, and almost all of our shares sold off -- but for exactly the wrong reasons. In this quarterly update edition, we update you on the very best buys to turn this volatility into great profits. These aren't just Best Buys, they are Screaming Best Buys. Always the wrong reasons. Always time to buy on dips. Always an opportunity for great profits (unless you bought in two years ago in which case you'd be looking at 80+% losses). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Greeting all, btw! I go away for a couple of weeks, hearing rumours of turmoil, but when I get back, everything seems to cost much the same as when I left! Welcome back. Nothing has changed, much. Still no moonshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Welcome back. Nothing has changed, much. Still no moonshot. Cheers. It's quite strange! Massive upheavals, blanket news coverage, and yet everything was more or less where I left it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I think we need to step back a little and look at what is actually happening here. 1. In the past week physical gold has gone from being in plentiful supply to, at times, practically out of stock. When is the last time that happened? 2. BV has posted a warning that the market is very thin and it is trading on wide margins. When is the last time that happened? 3. Gold as a safe haven is now being discussed in the mainstream media, on chatshows and by people on the bus. When is the last time that happened? 4. Gold spot price this week came close to year high in EURO, and very high in STG. Price for coins is at year high. So what does all this mean? We know that there are a myriad of factors influencing the spot price of gold, and gold is a manipulated commodity. So prices will fluctuate depending on those factors. But one thing is for certain, when gold becomes scarce its value will rise. I think the talk of waiting for the dip to buy is irrelevant, the shortages we saw this week may become the norm. And at the rate that things are unfolding, and with the growing shortages, there is a real risk of being caught out. You have been warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Sitting comfortable. Just have to remember - he who has the gold, makes the rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I think we need to step back a little and look at what is actually happening here. 1. In the past week physical gold has gone from being in plentiful supply to, at times, practically out of stock. When is the last time that happened? 2. BV has posted a warning that the market is very thin and it is trading on wide margins. When is the last time that happened? 3. Gold as a safe haven is now being discussed in the mainstream media, on chatshows and by people on the bus. When is the last time that happened? 4. Gold spot price this week came close to year high in EURO, and very high in STG. Price for coins is at year high. So what does all this mean? We know that there are a myriad of factors influencing the spot price of gold, and gold is a manipulated commodity. So prices will fluctuate depending on those factors. But one thing is for certain, when gold becomes scarce its value will rise. I think the talk of waiting for the dip to buy is irrelevant, the shortages we saw this week may become the norm. And at the rate that things are unfolding, and with the growing shortages, there is a real risk of being caught out. You have been warned. Question - how do the gold coin dealers pay for the coins? At spot price on the day they purchase them? I was thinking that if that was the case, and I was a gold dealer, and I thought that prices were going down, I would not stock up on gold coins, becuase they will be cheaper next week and I would make a huge loss. So why not reduce your stock to the bear minimum and say there is a shortage to keep people buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 It's interesting the POG didn't really move today, I expected it to drop another $50/oz on the news the bill passed the HOR. I guess the fact it passed through the Senate unscathed yesterday was enough of a signal it would get through the HOR today. The fact it hasn't plummeted today, is surely a bullish sign for gold and means sentiment in the gold market has NOT been damaged. I expect the volume will be bought up early next week by the same people that sold yesterday for a tidy profit. I concur with Ker this is the bottom and you can guarantee the next bill that passes through the HOR will not be received with such open arms, it will be a signal we are fooked, the markets will not rally. I am going to buy like a man possessed from here on in, could October's CDS auctions be a likely candidate for a trigger? I know this is a little of topic, but can someone summarise recovery rates for CDS? Why are the recovery rates expected to be so high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 this is very irrelgular wave pattern, but it I believe it is charted correctly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted October 3, 2008 Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Question - how do the gold coin dealers pay for the coins? At spot price on the day they purchase them? I was thinking that if that was the case, and I was a gold dealer, and I thought that prices were going down, I would not stock up on gold coins, becuase they will be cheaper next week and I would make a huge loss. So why not reduce your stock to the bear minimum and say there is a shortage to keep people buying? Dealers make a profit on each sale, so why would they turn away customers? There is no need to keep people buying, there are more buyers than sellers now, plain and simple. We keep tossing it back and forth on this site, but maybe the most obvious answers are best. Gold is one of the few practical stores of wealth, in times of financial crisis its value will increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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