POTATOES Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Goldfinger, I think you'll be needing this piece of equipment soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Incase anyone missed this on the Gold versus Silver thread. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Here's an article by Ted Butler on the merits of swapping gold to silver currently. An Exceptional Opportunity - Ted Bulter commentary - 7/10/08 When fear and emotion run high, as they presently do, it often creates exceptional profit opportunities. In other words, when everyone is running scared and is concerned about risk, it is precisely the time to look for rewards as well. We are currently positioned the best I have ever witnessed for risk and reward in silver. The downside looks extremely limited and the upside looks explosive. Yes, volatility is great, but everything is lined up perfectly. I would like to revisit a familiar theme - the suggestion that gold-heavy investors take advantage of the extreme undervaluation of silver compared to gold. This is not intended as a knock on gold, or a suggestion that gold can’t or won’t go higher. It would not surprise me if gold moved much higher. I hope that it does. Then why would I suggest that gold owners convert some of their gold into silver? For the simple reason that silver should climb much higher in value than gold. Maybe two or three times, and perhaps much more. In fact, if silver eventually reverts to its historical ratio of 16 to 1 to gold, that means silver would have outperformed gold by more than four-fold. At that rate, every dollar invested in silver would return four times more than a dollar invested in gold. What are the chances that old ratio could return? Quite good, I think. [continues] The article also includes another below it, which seems very bullish for silver. COMING ON STRONG By James R. Cook I talk to silver analyst Ted Butler every day and lately I’ve never heard him give a more optimistic view on silver. About eight years ago he affiliated with my company and we’ve literally had thousands of conversations since then. Never was he willing to put his predictions in any kind of time frame. Now, in our private conversations, he’s telling me this is it. A price explosion is imminent. He may not want to go public with that bullish forecast, but with me it’s different. He claims the shortage in silver must now worsen and the price rise high enough to change the dynamics of silver forever. The one thing he always told me for the past eight years was that before the big upward explosion took place, the price would be crushed. He said the big shorts would be among the first to notice a shortage in silver. They would then do everything in their power to extricate themselves from their short position. They would manipulate a big sell-off so that when those who held silver on margin were forced to sell, they would buy back their silver and thereby reduce their short position. They could never cover all of it, but they would make their short position more manageable. They would still be trapped and suffer losses when silver rose, but they would only lose a toe and not a foot. [continues] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 what do you think? I sold at £17,200 kg put in now to buy back at 17170. 40% in London? 40% in Zurich, 20% NY? You can sort the location when it's a good opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Incase anyone missed this on the Gold versus Silver thread. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Here's an article by Ted Butler on the merits of swapping gold to silver currently. An Exceptional Opportunity - Ted Bulter commentary - 7/10/08 When fear and emotion run high, as they presently do, it often creates exceptional profit opportunities. In other words, when everyone is running scared and is concerned about risk, it is precisely the time to look for rewards as well. We are currently positioned the best I have ever witnessed for risk and reward in silver. The downside looks extremely limited and the upside looks explosive. Yes, volatility is great, but everything is lined up perfectly. I would like to revisit a familiar theme - the suggestion that gold-heavy investors take advantage of the extreme undervaluation of silver compared to gold. This is not intended as a knock on gold, or a suggestion that gold can’t or won’t go higher. It would not surprise me if gold moved much higher. I hope that it does. Then why would I suggest that gold owners convert some of their gold into silver? For the simple reason that silver should climb much higher in value than gold. Maybe two or three times, and perhaps much more. In fact, if silver eventually reverts to its historical ratio of 16 to 1 to gold, that means silver would have outperformed gold by more than four-fold. At that rate, every dollar invested in silver would return four times more than a dollar invested in gold. What are the chances that old ratio could return? Quite good, I think. [continues] The article also includes another below it, which seems very bullish for silver. COMING ON STRONG By James R. Cook I talk to silver analyst Ted Butler every day and lately I’ve never heard him give a more optimistic view on silver. About eight years ago he affiliated with my company and we’ve literally had thousands of conversations since then. Never was he willing to put his predictions in any kind of time frame. Now, in our private conversations, he’s telling me this is it. A price explosion is imminent. He may not want to go public with that bullish forecast, but with me it’s different. He claims the shortage in silver must now worsen and the price rise high enough to change the dynamics of silver forever. The one thing he always told me for the past eight years was that before the big upward explosion took place, the price would be crushed. He said the big shorts would be among the first to notice a shortage in silver. They would then do everything in their power to extricate themselves from their short position. They would manipulate a big sell-off so that when those who held silver on margin were forced to sell, they would buy back their silver and thereby reduce their short position. They could never cover all of it, but they would make their short position more manageable. They would still be trapped and suffer losses when silver rose, but they would only lose a toe and not a foot. [continues] It takes balls to come out of gold now and go into silver, and if ag outperforms au in the long-term the risk will be rewarded (obviously!). Personally, I am very bullish on silver, it is tracking gold now better than it has recently. However, for me ag is a much longer term hold than au. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
megaflop Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Bubb / Dominic Sorry I haven't read everything here tonight. Have any of you guys read monkey-man ?...! 's latest thread over on HPC: "It's Over, It's All Over, LCDX spread = 810bps!" http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=90967 Any comments? "This is the end of the world as we know it. The bail outs have failed. It's time to usher in a new age of economics because Freidman was wrong. Credit markets have continued to worsen. This is now at least as bad as 1929. I'm expecting broad job losses now. Across the board. This is the worst time in history to hold an debt. " EDIT= I go to the pub an when I get back all hell breaks loose. Shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Come on boys where's the rocket pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Come on boys where's the rocket pics? £543 w00t! Time for a special rocket video, a glimpse at the potential space program that the UK could create if we were to put the might of our financial powerhouse economy behind it. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ldDdqyG_M28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastBoy Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 A commentator on Sky News said tonight, 'Everyone is selling stocks and buying gold'. Spot = £543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 I'm a bit suprised about silver, its clearly not a great deflation hedge right now and is definately being lumped in with the industial commodites. Surely expect it to start moving up rapidly when gold break out to new highs in dollars. I doubt I will be able to buy any more gold. Not so tragic as fortunately I got in 100% during the course of this year. I am now earning the Korean won which is starting to collapse. My hope is that silver will remain lowish for the next few months and will put most of my future earning into silver on getting back to NZ later in the year. I think we will see a continued credit crisis and deflation... but I also think we will see currencies deflate/devalue as they are starting to do now. Perhaps this beast could be called hyper-"deflation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Why oh why are you guys trying and trade this beast? Yes, after every dip I think I should have bought more. But then I look at my RBS-account, see it at pretty much zero, and I know I have done what I could. Hear hear. The main thing is to be in. The POG is just silly little digits on a screen ... but they still manage to fascinate us. That is the spell of money I guess, but a spell soon to be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Just back from shopping. £543.60/oz :blink: The checkout lady asked whether we were hibernating :unsure: What can you say in such a situation ?! We just smiled A beautiful sunny day here. The sky has not fallen. I think this is one of the best places to be, at the moment ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Bubb / Dominic Sorry I haven't read everything here tonight. Have any of you guys read monkey-man ?...! 's latest thread over on HPC: "It's Over, It's All Over, LCDX spread = 810bps!" http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=90967 Any comments? "This is the end of the world as we know it. The bail outs have failed. It's time to usher in a new age of economics because Freidman was wrong. Credit markets have continued to worsen. This is now at least as bad as 1929. I'm expecting broad job losses now. Across the board. This is the worst time in history to hold an debt. " EDIT= I go to the pub an when I get back all hell breaks loose. Shit. IMO the deflationists on that thread have a naive view of the currency itself and whether it may buckle under massive pressure [debt imbalances]. After sketching out the persuasive arguments for deflation, they do not stop to consider whether the currency itself could become deflated/devalued. IMO, the gold bugs, for all their hyper-inflationary hype, have a much sounder understanding of money, even a philosophy of money, and can envisage a scenario whereby money itself becomes compromised. This is completely lacking from the conventional deflationist who holds onto both the faith that cash will be king and the simplistic story that their STR fund will secure them a property when they are dirt cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 IMO opinion the deflationists on that thread have a naive view of the currency. After sketching out the persuasive arguments for deflation, they do not stop to consider whether the currency itself could become deflated/devalued. IMO, the gold bugs, for all their hyper-inflationary hype, have a much sounder understanding of money, even a philosophy of money, and can envisage a scenario whereby money itself is compromised. This is completely lacking from the conventional deflationist who holds onto both the faith that cash will be king and the simplistic story that their STR fund will secure them a property when they are dirt cheap. I find it inconceivable that politicians will not print more money to spend and buy votes if lack of money in circulation is causing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew McP Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 A beautiful sunny day here. The sky has not fallen. I think this is one of the best places to be, at the moment ! There can't be many better places than New Zealand to be if things are really going pear-shaped. Long term geological instability isn't really a concern at times like this. :-) Yesterday was a beautiful day here in the UK, and I felt guilty about not going out and making the most of it. The best things are still free... though I suspect governments will have to find a way to tax fresh air and clear skies before all this over. It's about the only thing unlikely to be affected by the unfolding crisis. I find it inconceivable that politicians will not print more money to spend and buy votes if lack of money in circulation is causing problems. I agree. But then hanging around here, that's hardly a rare point of view. I simply think there will be no alternative; I'd do it myself in their shoes, I'm sure. Though not for votes, simply to buy time while working out WTF is really going on in the economy. Better the devil you know? Andrew McP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sylvester Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Steve, you could always try subterfuge next time! on thing about contra-indicator Steve is that he only contra-indicates in US$. In NZ$ he is the guy who presses the main ignition button! It's a good job I don't keep reporting all time highs in NZ$ as it would have been fairly constant posts for the las 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 on thing about contra-indicator Steve is that he only contra-indicates in US$. In NZ$ he is the guy who presses the main ignition button! It's a good job I don't keep reporting all time highs in NZ$ as it would have been fairly constant posts for the las 4 days I've been meaning to update my "NZ House prices in oz of gold" chart. I'm rather afraid to do it. Do I need to have my heart checked first ?! It's bad enough having Yen and looking at the NZ$JPY chart. It's getting seriously ........ well lets put it this way. I'm having to re-evaluate things. More on that one later ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 You seen the pound? its gone from 1.725 to 1.695 in less than a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 You seen the pound? its gone from 1.725 to 1.695 in less than a day You're not helping For me that means GBPJPY from 248 to 167 in a year :blink: I have some serious re-charting to do ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 You seen the pound? its gone from 1.725 to 1.695 in less than a day 1.6893 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 1.6893 now The irony is that as gold strengthens (in USD) the USD is also strengthening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 1.6893 now **** me!! On another note: Posted On: Thursday, October 09, 2008, 10:17:00 PM EST Gold and Dollar Market Summary Author: Jim Sinclair Dear Friends, Gold is about to VAULT UP. I am reliably informed that the paper versus bullion gold war is lost by paper gold at a $930 close. Gold will vault to slightly under $900 then get pushed back, but not much at all. Directly after that we are off to $1200. A Bank Holiday is moving from possible to PROBABLE. * Have you fully protected yourself? * Have you distanced yourself as much as possible away from financial agents holding your assets? * Have you gotten paper certificates for your shares or became a direct registration book entry at the transfer agent? * Have you protected your retirement accounts the same way as your shares above but in the name of the retirement account and the trust holding them? * Have you closed your Money Market fund accounts regardless of what assurances your bankers offer? * Have you withdrawn from your Credit Union? * Have you exited your corporate retirement fund? * Do you have significant gold and related shares investments? It is getting UGLY out there as each day an attempt to postpone a bank holiday fails. Almost every other day lately financial leaders of the world have announced new plans that were "the final answer" to the super-glued credit market. All these plans have had no effect. The Dow fell like a rock off a cliff. This says all efforts have failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 You think he made a typo? "Gold will vault to slightly under $900 then get pushed back, but not much at all". Gold will vault to slightly under $1000 then get pushed back, but not much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 This is going insane ! First, Karl Denninger: October 7th - Last Update For Now There are strong indications that we may suffer a bond market dislocation (and attendant stock market crash) which could come as early as tomorrow. This is a direct consequence of Congressional refusal to address the issues for over a year, and Bernanke and Paulson playing "smartest men in the room." I urge everyone to be prepared for a potential economic Depression, as if we get a bond market dislocation it will catapult us into a full-on Depression - this was what caused it in 1930-32, and it will be again, if it occurs. If we the people are going to get in front of Congress and stop this, it has to happen now. Right now. A few thousand views and the conspiracy nutballs who have infested the commentary of the previous videos will not do the job. I will put what time I have available towards these videos and similar things in the future, but my family comes first. It is now up to you, the people of America, to decide whether you wish to whine, bitch and moan in comments on Youtube, or whether you are going to take action such as visiting and hounding Congress, caling General Strikes, and similar forms of PEACEFUL direct action. Time has expired for you to choose and you must make your decision today. Refusal to act is a choice, and ALL choices have consequences. This is, literally, one of the most important decisions you will make - whether by your action or intentional inaction. Enough cash for 6 months :blink: ---------------- £548.30/oz woa ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoylentGreen Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 I've heard that there are actually 2 markets for gold, the comex and an asian market that's based on physical rather that 'paper' gold. Is there a website that gives the real time price of the asian market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 A mate of mine sent me this today - sorry, he did not include a link so no idea who's 'thought for the day' it is! Comment of the day, 9 October 2008 The last carry trade. Today’s commentary is a follow on from yesterday’s blog. It concerns the last carry trade left in the markets, i.e. gold. Gold peaked at $1032 in March this year; however since then it has fallen steadily, trading as low as $734. While this fall has been in line with a rising USD dollar, it has also been orchestrated. Gold has been falling in an environment of rising inflation and rising uncertainty, and previous comments of the day have in the past talked about gold de-coupling from the USD correlation one day. At this point in time we need to distinguish between different types of gold, i.e. physical gold and paper gold. Central banks hold a lot of physical gold and it just sits there earning nothing. As we know central banks have been pumping money into the markets for 13 months now, what has not been reported is that they have also made their holdings of gold available for lease for about 0.25% for a month. A short seller in gold can sell spot and lease the gold from the central banks at a nominal interest rate of 0.25%. If you sell gold you receive USD; the cost of borrowing USD is therefore 0.25% (the gold lease rate) - so as long as gold doesn’t go up it is a cheap source of funding. The central banks don’t mind this, especially when they want the USD up and as a rule they always want gold to fall. A falling gold price is a sign that everything is ok. However, as you can imagine this is a time bomb because they are leasing physical gold to a paper gold market. At some point in time paper gold will not trade the same way as physical gold. The demand for physical gold is the highest it has been for years, and this is the problem. Without the paper gold carry trade you could argue that gold would be a few thousand dollars higher right now. Yesterday’s blog mentioned all is not well in the paper gold market. And that this is a sign of an impending big rally in gold. Lease rates have been skyrocketing over the past month. For the past six years the 1 Month Gold Forward Lease Rate has chopped about at levels below 0.25 percent. Higher volatility over the past year has seen the rate move as high as 0.5 percent, but only in recent weeks have we seen rates greater than 2.5 percent (see chart below). On a global scale, the gold market is unregulated and opaque. No one really knows the size of the worldwide short position in gold, but it exists and it is large (at least 10,000 tonnes). Unlike financial markets, there are few rules and regulations on selling gold short. For years, a dark pool of short sales is believed to have been suppressing the natural ascent of gold prices. The current spike in gold lease rates indicates that demand for physical gold is extremely high and growing quickly. We may well be witnessing the first seeds of the gold price breaking free from the short sellers and the end (death) of the gold carry trade, which so many bullion banks made such large profits on in the 1990's. The lease rates (available on thebulliondesk.com) will be the key indicator to watch. If the short sellers in the gold market cannot afford to roll over their positions, they will be forced to close out their trades by buying gold. This could be one potential catalyst (there are many others) that sparks a major gold rally in the months ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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