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Let's lock in the current stock levels and see what "lots" is...

London: 2,179.461

New York: 188.210

Zurich: 7,383.574

 

 

and how will the liquidity affect the price? Comparison with Goldmoney...

Goldmoney: £497.30/oz

BV New York: 508.54 525.65

BV London: 508.57 517.22

BV Zurich: 508.54 519.43

Nice idea; except I am seeing IN GBP per kilo:

BID OFFER

LONDON

£16,672 £16,800

4.490kg 0.057kg

NY

£16,350 £16,900

0.024kg 0.100kg

ZURICH

£16,500 £16,900

1.997kg 0.200kg

 

and note the SPOT price is showng £15,986.

 

A serious bid in london at 5% over spot for almost 4.5 Kg is unusual.

EDIT to add also no serious sellers below £17,000.

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I'm not sure what you mean.

 

He means that the chances of taking delivery from BV are actually quite slim. Which is the whole point of holding physical rather than paper gold?

 

- BV only seem to have 12kg bars. So if you hold less than 12kg then you hold a fraction of a single bar. Difficult to take delivery.

- If the UK government ban gold trading then BV are in trouble. Whatever the assurances to the customer, if the directors face the prospect of jail time then I think I can guess which party they will support.

 

Take physical ownership. Have your gold in your hands. If you are unsure, then I would suggest that you contact BV and ask what the procedure is for taking delivery of your gold.

 

Good Luck!

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He means that the chances of taking delivery from BV are actually quite slim. Which is the whole point of holding physical rather than paper gold?

 

- BV only seem to have 12kg bars. So if you hold less than 12kg then you hold a fraction of a single bar. Difficult to take delivery.

- If the UK government ban gold trading then BV are in trouble. Whatever the assurances to the customer, if the directors face the prospect of jail time then I think I can guess which party they will support.

 

Take physical ownership. Have your gold in your hands. If you are unsure, then I would suggest that you contact BV and ask what the procedure is for taking delivery of your gold.

 

Good Luck!

 

If the government ban dealing in gold, where would you sell your coins?

 

I think GoldMoney is a better option, as it will be a lot harder for the UK government to stop transactions in the channel islands. Also currently you can still buy at the spot price + commission.

 

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Agreed, excellent call Ker & even the retracement down towards USD820 & then to bounce back at USD 850 support.

 

If you can call the market again post G7, Sunday night you deserve a beer voucher or two.

 

well, i really don't know where we are going to trade right now, the ABC correction patterns are very difficult to predict because they behave in a random way and may take any form. so, we might go to test 820 (something like: current price -> 865 -> 820) and make a zig-zag or we might go to 880 and then 83X and complete a flat correction, or we might have a triangle..... With the dollar at its tops this getting a bit difficult. One thing that is important, is that we have to hold at 820, otherwise this is not going to look good, with targets of 790, 750 and explore the lows. Good thing is, until friday, the volume on the downside was lower than the upside we had on the breakaway gap from 780.

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I say again that although Ker is doing a lot of thinkin garound this the 200 week moving average is meaningless.

 

yes, that was wrong, forget it. for a weekly 65 period and for a monthly 16 period exponential moving averages are looking good. later i will tune this numbers to predict the big gold take off, because this is going to be something like in the stocks right now, but to the upside.

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If the government ban dealing in gold, where would you sell your coins?

 

I think GoldMoney is a better option, as it will be a lot harder for the UK government to stop transactions in the channel islands. Also currently you can still buy at the spot price + commission.

 

 

If things are so bad that gold trading is banned, then I hope I can swap a few coins for a house, or a car, or something like that. ;)

 

Being able to trade in that sort of climate would be difficult I agree. But if the UK government passes a law forcing the sale of gold holdings to them, (as what happened in the US during the great depression) then any UK resident with BV holdings would be stuck. This is unlikely to happen though, as fiat currencies aren't pegged to gold anymore.

 

FWIW I prefer GoldMoney to BV. The setup of GM looks to be more risk adverse.

 

EDIT: BV would be stuck too. They would have to relocate their business operations to a territory where trading is allowed and then take steps to ensure all UK residents are prevented from trading as well. :blink: :blink:

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From over at http://www.maxkeiser.com/ - some good articles on here. Worth checking once a week.

 

Is Switzerland the next Iceland?

 

All this talk of gold confiscation and BV perhaps not being as immune as Goldmoney & the rock solid Swiss nabbing gold from secure holdings if UBS/Credit Suisse go down, makes you think/wonder.

 

Don't really fancy moving 60% of my stash to GM though, not in this market - will just about get trashed! :blink:

 

I thought confiscation in the 1930's was 'compulsory purchase' i.e. you will be forced to sell, not lose all - correct me if I'm wrong.

 

BTW - what a week!!

 

I did think @ £548 about selling a 1/3, but given the spreads and the volatility thought better of it!! ;)

 

What will this coming week bring, market freefall arrested, not sure it is..........

 

SafeBetter

 

 

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Don't really fancy moving 60% of my stash to GM though, not in this market - will just about get trashed! :blink:

 

I thought confiscation in the 1930's was 'compulsory purchase' i.e. you will be forced to sell, not lose all - correct me if I'm wrong.

 

GoldMoney is based on the Channel Islands, PMs held with them can be stored in insured VIA MAT vaults in London or Zurich.

 

The confiscation I think was compulsory purchase in the US, I don't think there has ever been confiscation in the UK and definitely not on the Channel Islands.

 

Here's a email response I had from James Turk on the subject;

 

Regarding the impact on GoldMoney, I will note that we operate in the British Channel Islands. We purposefully chose that country because it operates under the rule of law, rather than the dictate of politicians. This policy has made the Channel Islands one of the world's leading financial centers. So even if gold ownership is declared illegal in Germany, as the email suggests, it is highly unlikely to be declared illegal in the Channel Islands.

 

Also, it is important to note that we store our customers' gold in the UK and Switzerland. Neither of these countries have a history of outlawing gold.

 

 

 

 

 

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He means that the chances of taking delivery from BV are actually quite slim. Which is the whole point of holding physical rather than paper gold?

 

- BV only seem to have 12kg bars. So if you hold less than 12kg then you hold a fraction of a single bar. Difficult to take delivery.

- If the UK government ban gold trading then BV are in trouble. Whatever the assurances to the customer, if the directors face the prospect of jail time then I think I can guess which party they will support.

 

Take physical ownership. Have your gold in your hands. If you are unsure, then I would suggest that you contact BV and ask what the procedure is for taking delivery of your gold.

 

Good Luck!

 

Thanks. I hold my SHTF gold in my hands.

 

I think you are right about BV. I am speculating with my account. I don’t expect to ever see the gold. I expect to swap it for some electronic digits in my bank account (possibly when forced by the Government)

 

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GoldMoney is based on the Channel Islands, PMs held with them can be stored in insured VIA MAT vaults in London or Zurich.

 

The confiscation I think was compulsory purchase in the US, I don't think there has ever been confiscation in the UK and definitely not on the Channel Islands.

 

Here's a email response I had from James Turk on the subject;

 

Labour have form when it comes to banning gold.

 

http://24carat.co.uk/collectingcoinsframe.html

 

Restrictions for UK Residents

Between April 27th 1966 and March 31st 1971, it was illegal for any UK resident to buy gold coins, or to continue to hold more than four gold coins previously owned, with the exception of antique gold coins dated before 1838. This was introduced without warning under a provision of the Exchange Control Act of 1947 (Statutory Instrument No. 438 of 1966). We believe it was a rather pathetic and futile attempt by the then Labour government to shore up a creaking sterling exchange rate. Similar restrictions are still enforced by a few third world or third rate nations nowadays.

There are now no restrictions on UK residents owning or acquiring gold coins.

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Austria witnesses new gold rush

 

By Bethany Bell

BBC News, Vienna

 

There's a new gold rush.

 

Both international speculators and ordinary Austrians want to get their hands on gold

 

The interest in gold coins is so great that many of the world's major mints are struggling to keep up with demand, including the Austrian Mint, which produces the Vienna Philharmonic - one of the best-selling bullion coins worldwide.

 

Sales of Vienna Philharmonic gold coins have gone up by more than 230% since last year.

 

Kerry Tattersall, the director of marketing at the mint, says production has gone into overdrive.

 

"We are running at present something like three shifts on all of the machines, on the presses, producing both gold and the silver bullion coins.

 

"We've actually got delays in delivering orders in silver. With gold, we are just about keeping pace, but it is a bit of a struggle."

 

In September alone, the mint sold 100,000 ounces in gold coins - in normal times it would take three to four months to sell that much.

 

Mr Tattersall says people are looking for security.

 

"We are seeing a lot of panic buying at the moment. People are losing confidence in the economy - whether that is justified or unjustified is a matter of opinion. But we are seeing a lot of people looking for a safe haven."

 

King's ransom

 

In the mint, chunks of gold are melted down in a fiery furnace. Then a stream of molten metal is formed into a thin strip of gold, out of which the blank coins are cut. Later the blanks are struck with the design of violins and musical instruments.

 

The Austrian mint, in the heart of Vienna, was founded more than 800 years ago to make coins out of the silver ransom paid for King Richard the Lionheart, who was taken prisoner in Austria on his way home from the Crusades.

 

It is a sign of the importance people have attached to precious metals over the centuries.

 

But there is no such thing as a completely safe investment.

 

Gold, like all commodities, is vulnerable to fluctuations in price.

 

Prices tumbled in 1999 when Gordon Brown announced a decision to sell off some of the Bank of England's gold reserves.

 

Robert Stoeffele, an analyst at Austria's Erste Bank, says until recently there was less interest in gold as an investment.

 

"We forgot the appeal of gold in the last 28 years because we had a bear market in gold. But within the last few years we have seen a huge fundamental bull market for gold.

 

"Gold is like a thermometer for the financial markets. I'd say we've got fever," he said.

 

Life savings

 

But rising demand for gold is not just a phenomenon of global finance.

 

Ordinary Austrians, shocked by the precipitous falls in their own stock market - which was suspended this week for the first time ever - are also looking for a more solid store of wealth.

 

The shop at the Austrian Mint usually specialises in selling collectors' coins. But these days, a number of customers are buying bullion there - in bulk.

 

I saw one middle-aged couple handing over thousands of euros in cash, in exchange for dozens of 1oz Vienna Philharmonic gold coins.

 

A little later, a Viennese pensioner took a thick wad of 500-euro notes out of her handbag, and gave it to the sales assistant. He sold her a large gold bar, which looked as though it weighed a kilo.

 

"I have taken one piece of gold," she told me.

 

"You see, I am old, and I have earned money all my life and now I have the money in the bank and I am afraid of the financial situation, that it will disappear. Gold is safe, I think."

 

Video on the page about coins too.

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Remember if you are going to Panic - PANIC FIRST!

 

A message from APMEX.....

 

I would like to take a few minutes to respond to the comments I have seen on this forum. First, I would like to thank everyone who posted comments on this board about this situation both positive and negative. Let me tell you exactly what happened yesterday afternoon.

 

As you all know, the stock market was coming off the worst week in its history and on Friday the Dow frantically went up and down in a 1,000 point range. Our phones were ringing off the hook all week, especially on Friday. All of our staff has been working overtime – early mornings, late nights, and weekends – just to process all of the orders and stay ahead. About 12:00PM (CST) on Friday, the traffic on our website was so overwhelming that not only were you unable to get through to us or to purchase what was already in your shopping cart, but it prohibited us from helping with phone orders as well.

 

I am sure that all of you remember that back in March we had a similar problem. Since then, we upgraded all of our servers, and we considerably increased our bandwidth. This was done to ensure that we didn’t experience the same problems that occurred back in March. However, these past 2 months and yesterday exceeded our wildest expectations in terms of traffic. As our inventory of products continued to shrink, more and more customers dug deeper and deeper into the pages on our website for anything that contained precious metal, including all types of US and world coins. WE literally had thousands of customers wound up opening tens of thousands of pages to find products and to try to order them. For almost 6 hours, our system stopped, started, crawled, and stopped again. Eventually it began to free back up and work efficiently about 5:30 cst. Today, many of our staffers are here processing orders, packaging them, and sorting through the paperwork backlog working to ship out orders for all our customers including the members of the GoldIsMoney forum. Our IT department was here late into the evening last night as well as here early this morning doing what they could to improve website performance.

 

The bottom line is that we were overloaded with orders and although we were assured that our system could handle any large number of requests, the economic situation has thrown the general public into a panic. People who have never bought precious metals before were clamoring for any products we can deliver. We have opened up more accounts on the past two months than any other period in time. Many of our orders were from people who have never bought precious metals from us before confirming what you all have already known, there is no better asset to own than gold or silver.

 

Let me state, unequivocally, that we do NOT and HAVE NOT ever shut down our servers when the price of any metal drops! Our entire inventory is completely hedged so we are protected against unforeseen price movements. We are happy to sell you silver when the spot price is $7 or $17 or $27 an ounce. We are happy to sell you gold or platinum or palladium at any market price. We NEVER shut down our servers because of a price movement. Our system is designed to handle very heavy traffic and while it is adequate for us during 363 days a year, there are those 1 or 2 days a year when everyone, including the general public, is trying to buy precious metals at the same time.

 

Again I would like to thank you for your patience and understanding during this situation and rest assured that we are aggressively looking to purchase and manufacture products for you to invest in. We are also working very hard to make certain that ordering from us is a pleasant experience for you and hope you can understand that we are in unprecedented times.

 

Thanks for letting me share this with you.

__________________

Scott Thomas

President & CEO

 

www.APMEX.com

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Let me state, unequivocally, that we do NOT and HAVE NOT ever shut down our servers when the price of any metal drops! Our entire inventory is completely hedged so we are protected against unforeseen price movements. We are happy to sell you silver when the spot price is $7 or $17 or $27 an ounce. We are happy to sell you gold or platinum or palladium at any market price. We NEVER shut down our servers because of a price movement. Our system is designed to handle very heavy traffic and while it is adequate for us during 363 days a year, there are those 1 or 2 days a year when everyone, including the general public, is trying to buy precious metals at the same time.

Interesting. Anyone got any ideas how they can hedge against such price movements? Maybe a significant short position?

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Austria witnesses new gold rush

By Bethany Bell

BBC News, Vienna

 

There's a new gold rush.

 

The financial crisis is prompting people to look for safer forms of investment than stocks and shares.

 

The interest in gold coins is so great that many of the world's major mints are struggling to keep up with demand, including the Austrian Mint, which produces the Vienna Philharmonic - one of the best-selling bullion coins worldwide.

 

Sales of Vienna Philharmonic gold coins have gone up by more than 230% since last year.

 

Kerry Tattersall, the director of marketing at the mint, says production has gone into overdrive.

 

"We are running at present something like three shifts on all of the machines, on the presses, producing both gold and the silver bullion coins.

 

"We've actually got delays in delivering orders in silver. With gold, we are just about keeping pace, but it is a bit of a struggle."

 

In September alone, the mint sold 100,000 ounces in gold coins - in normal times it would take three to four months to sell that much.

 

Mr Tattersall says people are looking for security.

 

"We are seeing a lot of panic buying at the moment. People are losing confidence in the economy - whether that is justified or unjustified is a matter of opinion. But we are seeing a lot of people looking for a safe haven."

 

King's ransom

 

In the mint, chunks of gold are melted down in a fiery furnace. Then a stream of molten metal is formed into a thin strip of gold, out of which the blank coins are cut. Later the blanks are struck with the design of violins and musical instruments.

 

The Austrian mint, in the heart of Vienna, was founded more than 800 years ago to make coins out of the silver ransom paid for King Richard the Lionheart, who was taken prisoner in Austria on his way home from the Crusades.

 

It is a sign of the importance people have attached to precious metals over the centuries.

 

But there is no such thing as a completely safe investment.

 

Gold, like all commodities, is vulnerable to fluctuations in price.

 

Prices tumbled in 1999 when Gordon Brown announced a decision to sell off some of the Bank of England's gold reserves.

 

Robert Stoeffele, an analyst at Austria's Erste Bank, says until recently there was less interest in gold as an investment.

 

"We forgot the appeal of gold in the last 28 years because we had a bear market in gold. But within the last few years we have seen a huge fundamental bull market for gold.

 

"Gold is like a thermometer for the financial markets. I'd say we've got fever," he said.

 

Life savings

 

But rising demand for gold is not just a phenomenon of global finance.

 

Ordinary Austrians, shocked by the precipitous falls in their own stock market - which was suspended this week for the first time ever - are also looking for a more solid store of wealth.

 

The shop at the Austrian Mint usually specialises in selling collectors' coins. But these days, a number of customers are buying bullion there - in bulk.

 

I saw one middle-aged couple handing over thousands of euros in cash, in exchange for dozens of 1oz Vienna Philharmonic gold coins.

 

A little later, a Viennese pensioner took a thick wad of 500-euro notes out of her handbag, and gave it to the sales assistant. He sold her a large gold bar, which looked as though it weighed a kilo.

 

"I have taken one piece of gold," she told me.

 

"You see, I am old, and I have earned money all my life and now I have the money in the bank and I am afraid of the financial situation, that it will disappear. Gold is safe, I think."

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20405 contracts are betting gold will be at $850 or lower whilst 194669 contracts are betting it will be $860 or higher - about 10% and 90% respectively. I'm sure some clever person could break this all down further and produce a chart - we definitely need more work in this area as it seems to predict when the mega moves are coming and is highly significant.

 

Check the volume and number of contracts for December - it appears that huge amounts of smart money is being positioned for a big rise towards the end of the year and nowhere else:

 

http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/GC.html

 

 

This guy has done some work on large build-up of call options that translate into large upward moves in the POG.

 

http://marketforceanalysis.com/Published_A...OPTION%20OI.pdf

 

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Spot Gold up $20 in as many minutes on IGINDEX

 

This reflects the movement in the Euro/Dollar index.

If the pog moves back to where it was when the Euro/Dollar last traded as this price then we'll see it knocking $890.

More importantly this movement adds weight to the theory that the Dollar has peaked against the Euro.

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Is it any wonder there is a shortage of coins

Watch the video. When the rolls of gold sheet are run through the cropper, there is about 60-70% of the sheet being wasted.

All they would have to do is slow it down a tad to maximise the usage.

I wonder is this typical production in a mint, if it is, there is scope for at least a 50% increase in the supply of coins

Add to this that there would be less wastage to re-process and the implications of the price weigh heavily on the downside.

Plus, i saw at least two guys scratchin their holes

They need someone like me to fill ma boots sort them out

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