GOLD

[ologhai]

The last smackdown of the Bush Administration..............

 

the motive for today's manipulation was obvious

 

The US election was the reason for the drop in gold's price today?

 

I'm lost...

[bakachu]

The US election was the reason for the drop in gold's price today?

 

I'm lost...

 

I would guess a 'runaway' price in gold would start a mass panic where people would decide that its game over, and exit stocks and try to catch the safe haven train as soon as possible. Therefore the keeping the price of gold unattractive and the economy on track as much as possible could be major election goals at the moment, if the republicans want to stand any chance of being re-elected. Or maybe I'm spouting crap

 

Personally I'm very keen to watch things unfold post election, it should be very interesting to observe if things continue like now, or take a (bigger) turn for the worse

[warpig]

This is absolutely not the time to bail out regardless of how you feel, I know market conditions can make you feel like you made a bad decision, but you absolutely haven't. The only potential mistake you made was not buying at the lowest possible point, but this is near impossible. I bought £1K when it was at $1000+ just before the FED announced their rate cut, oops. It doesn't matter though because I have been averaging in and long term that decision would be vindicated anyway. Just walk away from it all for a few days, you will feel better.

 

Quite so.

 

[sylvester]

Iasked the same... it's defo a naughty pic, imo! The resolution is just too low to be sure.

 

It's a rolling pin, apparently...

[Gatesy]

It seems like everything in the world is just worth less than it was -- whereas, in my simple model of the world, some money must be flowing into something and increasing that something's value, and I assumed that would be gold and silver...

The last few weeks...........the good old greenback.

[Gatesy]

Iasked the same... it's defo a naughty pic, imo! The resolution is just too low to be sure.

I suggested a rolling pin but due to lack of response I presumed I was wrong

 

edit: soz, didn't see post 1109

[FWIW]

I feel no loss or sadness in seeing the gold spot price come down - as many on here have said, you must get physical!

I had a mad, blind panic 2 weeks ago trying to get PM - now that I have 10% gold and silver bullion I feel relieved and prepared.

 

If it carries on going lower, then I will start to make use of my goldmoney account...

 

Again, this is an insurance policy for me...I don't really want it to pay out, but just in case...

 

[FWIW]

Good article here:

 

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/167599-W...at-it-all-means

 

Quote:

Why is gold dropping right now when anyone in their sane mind would expect it to rise? The simple answer to this question is, "because Comex-gold isn't gold" - and because it deceptively pretends to be 'the' price-setter for real gold.

 

Gold is gold, paper is paper, and "Comex gold" is nothing but paper masquerading as gold while simultaneously pretending to be the price-setting medium for actual gold in the world. Now, finally, Comex-gold is in the process of being unmasked.

 

 

[gwizzie]

It's a rolling pin, apparently...

 

ouch

[AgeingBabyBoomer]

Ed Young talks about this on the TOB show

About 10 mins in.

ABB

[Catflap]

I am mentally prepared for $500 -- a 50% from $1,000 similar to the one in the 70s from $200 to $100 before it took off to $850.

 

Below $500 I would conclude that it is too late anyway, and would hang on. I'm a hopeless case for the cartel. Sorry!

 

I just posted this GF

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4715

 

- thought it was worth discussing in it's own right and something that has been bugging me for a while. Hope others can give their views or shed some light on why gold fell so much as it will help our understanding and maybe remove some of the fear we currently have.

['Green'Investor]

Ed Young talks about this on the TOB show

About 10 mins in.

ABB

 

The really interesting bit (for me) is the caller (Bill from Tampa) just before Ed Young at 9 minutes.

 

Tom O'Brien talks about Great Basin (AMEX:GBN), a gold producer. Caller gets in at $1 something and Tom says it will get back to it's highs of $3.85 but it will take a few years.

 

Also comments about the madness of the gold market but is essentially saying hold tight and don't get scared out, at least that's how I took it.

[kernull]

some more analysis:

tomorrow we might have a bear market rally to retest the 820 and monday / tuesday start the downtrend to lows

[mettu]

some more analysis:

tomorrow we might have a bear market rally to retest the 820 and monday / tuesday start the downtrend to lows

[LauraB]

Iasked the same... it's defo a naughty pic, imo! The resolution is just too low to be sure.

 

Lord, no it isn't a naughty pic!.......... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...6851&st=360 3rd post down.

 

I grow my own too, just in case anyone is interested.

 

Everyone should if possible ................

 

___________________________________

 

BTW:- I'm one third gold, euros, sterling. What next oh wise ones? - Because I see nothing but demand destruction & mass unemployment......or maybe that should be the other (self feeding) way round

 

[electroweak]

Lord, no it isn't a naughty pic!.......... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...6851&st=360 3rd post down.

 

I grow my own too, just in case anyone is interested.

 

Everyone should if possible ................

 

___________________________________

 

BTW:- I'm one third gold, euros, sterling. What next oh wise ones? - Because I see nothing but demand destruction & mass unemployment......or maybe that should be the other (self feeding) way round

I was only joking, Laura.. I can clearly see the white baking flour and he head of the rolling pin

 

EDIT: Market is pricing in a deep recession now. It might end up being a hyperinflationary depression, which is definitely not priced in yet. I hope sincerely it never is; i don't want to be in black and white films looking scrawny and unemployed. However if it does happen my insurance might see to that.

[Pixel8r]

some more analysis:

tomorrow we might have a bear market rally to retest the 820 and monday / tuesday start the downtrend to lows

 

This looks like it would tie in to the election date (18 days to go)

[chazza]

..Once you take delivery of a bar, it then leaves the chain of integrity and would need assaying (re-making) before it could enter the chain again - in effect, loosing value...

 

Apolgies if someone has asked the question and I just havent scrolled down to it yet.

 

"Leaving the chain of integrity" is that falling outside the scope of a official dealer, so in order to verify the quality it is melted to check for impurities etc. and then remoulded?

[G0ldfinger]

...

"Leaving the chain of integrity" is that falling outside the scope of a official dealer, so in order to verify the quality it is melted to check for impurities etc. and then remoulded?

Replace "official dealer" by "approved/certified vault" and you're there.

[Mr Pipples]

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=jEbNlzjTQ-M&...feature=related

 

1.56

[FWIW]

Good article here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6826.html

 

Quote:

GOLD & SILVER AWAIT THEIR EXALTED STATUS

 

We are witnessing the disintegration cited in my recent forecasts. It is a systemic failure, marred by lost confidence and trust in the entire financial system. Expect foreigners soon to pull the rug from under the American syndicates in control. Several key meetings have already concluded, totally unreported in the US press, which occurred in Berlin Germany. Consider it the Anti-G7 Meeting. Implications are profound, and involved the Shanghai Coop Org tangentially, since its member nations possess so much new commodity supply. Consider it the Anti-NATO group. An important and powerful alternative financial system is soon to spring into action, including high-level bilateral barter. Those who expect the current US Regime to continue their financial terror are in for a big surprise.

 

Expect defaults in the COMEX with gold & silver, whose prices for paper vastly diverge from physical, to the anger of foreigners watching. They hold massive precious metals assets. Disparities now contribute to powerful forces, sure to break the current system. Grand systemic changes come. THE RESULT WILL BE A BREATH-TAKING DISCONTINUITY EVENT.

 

Ironically, the more inner anguish felt on the falling gold & silver prices, the closer we are to a new financial framework, with the US Dollar relegated to a Third World role. A REPLACEMENT GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY HAS ALREADY BEEN DECIDED UPON. Its launch awaits the proper moment. The Americans are last to know, as usual. The US leaders are under the illusion of being in control!

[goldenbee]

Lord, no it isn't a naughty pic!.......... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...6851&st=360 3rd post down.

 

I grow my own too, just in case anyone is interested.

 

Everyone should if possible ................

 

___________________________________

 

BTW:- I'm one third gold, euros, sterling. What next oh wise ones? - Because I see nothing but demand destruction & mass unemployment......or maybe that should be the other (self feeding) way round

 

Oh no, not the ignore thread, I'd managed to ignore it until I clicked on your link!!!!!!!

[Justin Thyme]

I am mentally prepared for $500 -- a 50% from $1,000 similar to the one in the 70s from $200 to $100 before it took off to $850.

 

Below $500 I would conclude that it is too late anyway, and would hang on. I'm a hopeless case for the cartel. Sorry!

 

But is this mentality not the same as that employed by those who, in predicting the end of the UK property boom, effectively "told the time from a stopped clock" for 4 years over at HPC ?

 

Ologhai's concerns are probably shared by a few forum contributors who, for whatever reason, are too afraid to vocalize their reservations on here given the virtual deification of gold. Absolutism is unwise when it comes to investment IMHO, hence my reluctance to be 100% submerged in PMs.

 

I suspect that if gold went to $500, a LOT of people who didn't get in as early as you did, would be seriously f***ed off; especially if they emulated your 100% PM strategy.

[anciom]

But is this mentality not the same as that employed by those who, in predicting the end of the UK property boom, effectively "told the time from a stopped clock" for 4 years over at HPC ?

 

Ologhai's concerns are probably shared by a few forum contributors who, for whatever reason, are too afraid to vocalize their reservations on here given the virtual deification of gold. Absolutism is unwise when it comes to investment IMHO, hence my reluctance to be 100% submerged in PMs.

 

I suspect that if gold went to $500, a LOT of people who didn't get in as early as you did, would be seriously f***ed off; especially if they emulated your 100% PM strategy.

 

 

the ebst way to counter this is to buy into shitty bank stocks.

they are so low, that in the case of a $500 oz, then the banks would be sitting pretty again.

 

though i still think the FTSE will end up at 2800s when all the dust settles.

gold might be $600-700 oz but £1 wont buy a pint of milk.

[marmite]

This is a excellent post and very thought provoking on axes thread. It was posted by hotrod and is from goldrunner ( not seen his stuff before ). Hope I have covered all the copyright stuff

 

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread....66&page=527

 

Goldrunner

 

 

It is rumored that a great trader once said, "If I could only see past the tip of my nose.....with both hands."

 

The question, here, is whether we are in a true deflationary environment or whether we are in a market panic created by fear of the deflation in the financial sector. The real answer at this point is hard to know for sure since both situations look the same in terms of market selling, though we are getting close to the time when the answer will be obvious.

 

Back in 05 and 06 when I worked on the LT fractal expectations into the 4th quarter of 2008, that work was based on this being a "panic", but I still had my targets in the Dow down to below 7000 for a new low since 2000.......with a sharp drop for Gold and the PM stocks into this deflation scare bottom. I was using the Gold chart from the 70's to work off of, and in the 70's at this point Gold dropped down to re-test the "historic highs" so 740 would fit pretty nicely. I was also working off the Dow chart of the 70's for the expected low below 7,000.

 

A "deflationary environment" and a "deflationary panic" are similar in that the market will drop with investors tossing everything out the window. This is because in both cases the "investor psychology" is exactly the same. The two are different in that in a "deflationary environment" we have an environment that will not change for a long time, like many years to a decade. In a "deflationary panic" we have investors who are not processing true reality of the situtation short-term so they are throwing everything out in a shorter-term cycle at odds with the real fundamentals of the market.

 

Now, I know that the many will read this to this point and say, "Aha! GR, we are in a real deflationary environment because look at all the bad debt out there- look at the derivative problems- look at the funny nose on Bennie's face." Well, when we are talking about a long-term "environment"- we are talking abot the rocks and trees and air around you- not something that can change rapidly in the short run, then change back. If you look at any true deflationary environment, you are talking about currency deflation. The environment might start with massive debt, but the currency is strong and at new highs from the get-go and as the market starts to sharply tank the currency just keeps going higher....and as the market continues to tank, the currency just keeps on going higher and higher.......as everybody sells everything to get their hands on dollars to pay their bills, etc. That is NOT what we have here. The "true market top" in the Dow was in 2000. Shortly thereafter, the Dollar started to plunge, falling from around 120 down to around 72. The new high in the Dow was a "false high", not coming from increased buying power of the Dow, but of a lower buying power based on a devalued currency. (See the chart of the Dow in the 1970's for the same situation.) Thus, the chart of the Dow:Gold shows no new top after 2000, but a continually falling chart graph. The recent run higher in the US Dollar is but a blip for about 10 points from about 72 to about 82 (as also seen in the 70's scenario.) In fact, even most of the Dollar blip upward came BEFORE the real panic in selling in the markets- not simultaneous with the selling panic. There was a reported CB intervention in the Dollar that created the bulk of it. If we had a true deflationary environment unfolding, I'd expect the Dollar to be rocketing back toward new highs, but no, the Dollar is in a gazillion year downtrend at this time........only a short-term chart distortion caused by an intervention to create doubt and slow things down. The Fed has already announced the Dollar inflation to come in massive terms, including changing laws to make it happen.

 

With a "panic" markets will usually not complete until the "cyles" are complete as so many traders look to the cycles to trade, and as so many traders have investors on the run in a blind momentum panic move. It seems to me that the momentum bottom for the historic down cycles in the markets comes in the 3rd week of October- usually between the 18th and 25th...on a Monday into a Tuesday. The truth is that investors once in a panic just get scared and start selling as the whole thing steam rolls downward, creating margin calls for many others. The pressure from the margin calls prevents those who might be looking at the real fundamentals at hand from holding investments they think will do well into the future, as they are forced to sell what they can sell to stay solvent. Such is the investing life of today with margin.

 

In the background of this deflation scare, the Fed has announced the largest Dollar inflation in the history of the galaxy. In the background of this deflation scare, the Fed and Treasury has gotten a Bill passed that guarantees they can create the largest Dollar inflation ever in the Galaxy. In that same background the Treasury has take massive debt that was marking the insolvency of financial institutions onto its books. This WAS an issue of insolvency versus the idea of lack of liquidity, but that is changing rapidly as the Govy takes the bad assets on its books and as the Govy takes partial ownership in the offending financial sector. Once it has done that, then you must realize that the govy is backed by the full printing ability of the Federal Reserve. A Central Bank can print all it wants so it cannot go bankrupt. Since the Central Bank will print whatever it needs to to back the govy.........do you really want to invest in the US Dollar under this scenario? The Fed and Treasury want the Dollar lower, and they will get it in the long run. They now have complete power to print and to monetize anything they want.

 

Back around USD 73 or 74 when some of us would note that the Dollar rise is just going to be a blip, some short-term traders got all excited when the dollar started to break above that level. Our answer was "So what?" It is only a "Blip." It is still only a blip becausw we were citing LT charts for the Dollar- something many short-term traders cannot fathom- anything over X number of months. Yet, the USD still sits on a cliff.

 

During a panic anyone but a short-term trader must step back and take a look at what the real environment is for the next few years. Is that environment likely to be one of Dollar inflatioin or one of Dollar deflation? The Dollar trend LT and IT is down. The charts of the Fed's balance sheet has exploded upward as the Fed has recently gotten approval to print to the Heavens. That is the basics of the fundamentals for the Dollar going forward. I don't know about you, but with the Fed and Treasury doing what they are doing, my expectations are that this will end up being the "deflation scare" I'd suggested a couple of years, ago, into this time frame. If that it true do the "Dollar Inflation" being the correct expectation, then I also expect Gold, Silver, and the PM stocks to continue to track the movements of the stagflationary 70's.......including the Dow, BTW. Thus, over the next 4 to 6 years, I'd expect Gold to run up to 3,000 or 5,000, or 8,000 or even 50,000- depending on the Dollar inflation that is starting anew after a short break. In the 70's the one PM stock index I recently found with data from the 70's showed this same sharp retracement in that PM stock index at this juncture, but after it was over that PM stock index moved up to around 17 times the previous high when the PM parabola took effect. (These are historical facts.) After this little blipin the Dollar in the 70's chart, the Dollar completely fell off the cliff. Gold ran back to new highs- probably to 1250 to around 1500. After the Dow plunged, then global competitive currency devaluations took over giving some support to the USD on the chart. Somewhere there after, Gold continued up into the parabola.

 

So, you tell me- What is the Fed going to do in terms of the Dollar? If they are going to ramp up the printing, then I want to be long the PM complex across the board. If they are not going to ramp up Dollar printing, then I want to be in Gold, Dollars, and Bonds. Personally, I think that second option is completely laughable so I was buying PM stocks today.....looking for great bargains into next week......then possibly into the retest of final bottom in about 30 days. Personally, I think it will fall under the guise of a re-test.

 

Take care