GOLD

[Steve Netwriter]

This is a excellent post and very thought provoking on axes thread. It was posted by hotrod and is from goldrunner ( not seen his stuff before ). Hope I have covered all the copyright stuff

 

Wow, great

 

This post: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=21071

 

[Mr Pipples]

This is a excellent post...

 

Now that is fit's with my vague, confused and inexperienced take on things. A jolly good read.

[Andrew McP]

I suspect that if gold went to $500, a LOT of people who didn't get in as early as you did, would be seriously f***ed off; especially if they emulated your 100% PM strategy.

 

As wrongmove has pointed out, there is *always* a need to keep a sense of perspective on precious metals, and you'd have to be extremely brave -- or called Goldfinger :-) -- to dive fully into gold at any price, let alone recent prices. However even if you did, as long as you do it with your own money and not money ear-marked for the new family home, or your imminent retirement, or borrowed from a credit card, then you have -- as the quote goes -- nothing to fear but fear itself.

 

Can *anyone* honestly think that the pound or the dollar are going to retain their current value once the dust has died down? Will the Alt-A loans in the USA, or credit card debt in the UK, or the huge job losses to come in retail & restaurants etc do anything other than require more spending and borrowing to stave off social collapse?

 

This whole PM situation is not necessarily about making money, it's about NOT LOSING SO MUCH money in the face of the financial chaos. Or at least trying not to. If you're totally in any asset -- cash, property, shares, PMs -- you're asking for a thrashing with a slight chance of getting very rich indeed if you're right. Most of us though will just hope to spread our risks around and hope that something helps balance out the bad bets.

 

I'm pleased I bought PM recently even though I've lost a lot of money based mainly on the difference between buying and selling prices (and of course the VAT on silver). I think of it in the same way that I'd try to think about a house if I'd just bought it. Ok, so I overpaid. But as long as I can afford it, I have somewhere of my own to keep the rain off my head. I can similarly afford the risk that I'll never need the precious metal umbrella, but I feel so much better for having that umbrella in the first place.

 

We continue to live through historic times. The danger is that we forget that. The huge swings in markets become commonplace, and we get used to governments pulling financial rabbits out of bottomless magical hats. But sooner or later someone's going to try cutting a debt in half with the blunt saw of inflation, and there's going to be screaming from the box and blood all over the carpet.

 

Andrew McP

[Mr Pipples]

We continue to live through historic times. The danger is that we forget that. The huge swings in markets become commonplace, and we get used to governments pulling financial rabbits out of bottomless magical hats. But sooner or later someone's going to try cutting a debt in half with the blunt saw of inflation, and there's going to be screaming from the box and blood all over the carpet.

 

Nicely put.

 

Will Bailouts Risk Hyperinflation? http://www.cnbc.com/id/27159117

 

[allyjcambo]

As wrongmove has pointed out, there is *always* a need to keep a sense of perspective on precious metals, and you'd have to be extremely brave -- or called Goldfinger :-) -- to dive fully into gold at any price, let alone recent prices. However even if you did, as long as you do it with your own money and not money ear-marked for the new family home, or your imminent retirement, or borrowed from a credit card, then you have -- as the quote goes -- nothing to fear but fear itself.

 

Can *anyone* honestly think that the pound or the dollar are going to retain their current value once the dust has died down? Will the Alt-A loans in the USA, or credit card debt in the UK, or the huge job losses to come in retail & restaurants etc do anything other than require more spending and borrowing to stave off social collapse?

 

This whole PM situation is not necessarily about making money, it's about NOT LOSING SO MUCH money in the face of the financial chaos. Or at least trying not to. If you're totally in any asset -- cash, property, shares, PMs -- you're asking for a thrashing with a slight chance of getting very rich indeed if you're right. Most of us though will just hope to spread our risks around and hope that something helps balance out the bad bets.

 

I'm pleased I bought PM recently even though I've lost a lot of money based mainly on the difference between buying and selling prices (and of course the VAT on silver). I think of it in the same way that I'd try to think about a house if I'd just bought it. Ok, so I overpaid. But as long as I can afford it, I have somewhere of my own to keep the rain off my head. I can similarly afford the risk that I'll never need the precious metal umbrella, but I feel so much better for having that umbrella in the first place.

 

We continue to live through historic times. The danger is that we forget that. The huge swings in markets become commonplace, and we get used to governments pulling financial rabbits out of bottomless magical hats. But sooner or later someone's going to try cutting a debt in half with the blunt saw of inflation, and there's going to be screaming from the box and blood all over the carpet.

 

Andrew McP

 

Great post and totally agree with you.

 

I'm no uber gold bull myself but in terms of the next 5 years I would rather hold 30-40% of my wealth in gold bullion rather than GBP.

[FWIW]

As wrongmove has pointed out, there is *always* a need to keep a sense of perspective on precious metals, and you'd have to be extremely brave -- or called Goldfinger :-) -- to dive fully into gold at any price, let alone recent prices. However even if you did, as long as you do it with your own money and not money ear-marked for the new family home, or your imminent retirement, or borrowed from a credit card, then you have -- as the quote goes -- nothing to fear but fear itself.

 

Can *anyone* honestly think that the pound or the dollar are going to retain their current value once the dust has died down? Will the Alt-A loans in the USA, or credit card debt in the UK, or the huge job losses to come in retail & restaurants etc do anything other than require more spending and borrowing to stave off social collapse?

 

This whole PM situation is not necessarily about making money, it's about NOT LOSING SO MUCH money in the face of the financial chaos. Or at least trying not to. If you're totally in any asset -- cash, property, shares, PMs -- you're asking for a thrashing with a slight chance of getting very rich indeed if you're right. Most of us though will just hope to spread our risks around and hope that something helps balance out the bad bets.

 

I'm pleased I bought PM recently even though I've lost a lot of money based mainly on the difference between buying and selling prices (and of course the VAT on silver). I think of it in the same way that I'd try to think about a house if I'd just bought it. Ok, so I overpaid. But as long as I can afford it, I have somewhere of my own to keep the rain off my head. I can similarly afford the risk that I'll never need the precious metal umbrella, but I feel so much better for having that umbrella in the first place.

 

We continue to live through historic times. The danger is that we forget that. The huge swings in markets become commonplace, and we get used to governments pulling financial rabbits out of bottomless magical hats. But sooner or later someone's going to try cutting a debt in half with the blunt saw of inflation, and there's going to be screaming from the box and blood all over the carpet.

 

Andrew McP

 

Very well said!

 

[Justin Thyme]

As wrongmove has pointed out, there is *always* a need to keep a sense of perspective on precious metals, and you'd have to be extremely brave -- or called Goldfinger :-) -- to dive fully into gold at any price, let alone recent prices. However even if you did, as long as you do it with your own money and not money ear-marked for the new family home, or your imminent retirement, or borrowed from a credit card, then you have -- as the quote goes -- nothing to fear but fear itself.

 

Can *anyone* honestly think that the pound or the dollar are going to retain their current value once the dust has died down? Will the Alt-A loans in the USA, or credit card debt in the UK, or the huge job losses to come in retail & restaurants etc do anything other than require more spending and borrowing to stave off social collapse?

 

This whole PM situation is not necessarily about making money, it's about NOT LOSING SO MUCH money in the face of the financial chaos. Or at least trying not to. If you're totally in any asset -- cash, property, shares, PMs -- you're asking for a thrashing with a slight chance of getting very rich indeed if you're right. Most of us though will just hope to spread our risks around and hope that something helps balance out the bad bets.

 

No argument from me on this at all but, let's be honest here, most who have invested in PMs have done so with a view to realising a profit. If this wasn't so, then why would there be so much focus on buying on dips in, say, silver ? Sure, there is the "insurance" element but when you go out and insure your life, do you ask for a specific sum assured based on what your dependents would need to live comfortably or do you plonk down £100,000 and ask "I want the maximum sum assured this premium can buy me" ?

 

The underlying hope of many PM investors, I suspect, is to one day, when the much-heralded fiat currency destruction we're expecting actually arrives, is to exchange some of our pile for a damn sight more than what we can now with a view to, perhaps, buying a nice house or what have you without a need for credit.

 

There is nothing wrong with a member expressing concerns and seeking reassurance which is what I think Ologhai was looking for as a relatively new entrant into PMs. These moves are disconcerting to some so I just thought that he should've received a better response than "get outta the kitchen".

 

[tinecu]

some more analysis:

tomorrow we might have a bear market rally to retest the 820 and monday / tuesday start the downtrend to lows

 

Blimey. It was always forecast as a WILD RIDE! Buckle up folks!

[Andrew McP]

No argument from me on this at all but, let's be honest here, most who have invested in PMs have done so with a view to realising a profit. If this wasn't so, then why would there be so much focus on buying on dips in, say, silver?

 

Profit comes in many forms. Sometimes it only comes in the form of making less of a loss than most other people. They don't call this decade the 'noughties' for nothing. There's zero chance of getting out of it with any money! ;-)

 

When it comes to buying dips... well, that's just common sense, surely? If you're a long term bull in any market then you will *always* be looking for the inevitable dips. And even new entrants should be wary of committing all their 'spare' money in one go. That's a basic rule of any kind of investing, unless you're day trader.

 

As for GF's 'get out of the kitchen' comment. Well, it's blunt, but it's true. What else would you expect from GF? :-) I fail to see how anyone following this board's overall views on PMs could fail to see that there are no guarantees with gold or silver, especially when the whole of the world's economic powers are pulling out all the stops to make sure normal service is resumed ASAP. It is the long term cost of that intervention which we're looking for protection from, not the daily lottery of the exchanges which govern gold prices as well as shares.

 

This is not a time for faint hearts no matter where your money is held. I think all of us -- myself included! -- have to toughen up, because investments of any kind -- whether you're a buy to let empire builder or someone contemplating your first kruggerand -- require a certain amount of testicular fortitude*.

 

Andrew McP

 

*Public service announcement on behalf of the political correctness watchdog: No testicles are required in order to have testicular fortitude. Testicles are, after all, only prolapsed ovaries with a few tweaks.

[Johan van der Smut]

I once apologised to a driving instructor for shredding his nerves during a lesson. He said: "That's OK, I don't have any nerves left in this job."

 

That's kind of how I feel at the moment. Having lived through some gut-wrenching moments in the past few months, I'm trying to be serene in the face of market volatility.

 

I'd echo Andrew McP's point that at some point in the medium term, something horrible will happen, gold will rise again and we'll be able to get off the rollercoaster if we feel we can't take any more.

 

I'm fairly new to this myself but I take heart from the fact that the people who saw the current financial disasters happening in advance are the same people, by and large, advocating ownership of PMs.

 

Philip Manduca on Bloomberg (who's a dab hand at predicting the gold price, if we're to believe the guy who interviews him) predicted weeks ago that the dollar would rise in the short term and then be trashed. He told viewers: "Buy gold."

 

Over at HPC, FP's POG predictions went awry for a little while, but he forecast a couple of weeks ago that gold could fall to $600 before staging a mighty comeback.

 

Jim Rogers is predicting an inflationary holocaust. IIRC, Marc Faber and Mish Shedlock have said on Commodity Watch Radio that we may well see a deflationary blip followed by high inflation. Both recommended gold for the long term.

 

So I'm not losing any sleep. Yet. But if all these guys' predictions turn out to be wrong, I will be very peeved.

[allyjcambo]

This is an extract from an email I just sent a mate who was asking me what I thought about what's going on. It borrows on many of the ideas (a) posted here and ( spouted by the likes of Rogers, Turk, Bonner and the rest. So nothing original, but it reflects my take on events. Very happy to be contradicted though if people disagree...

 

"History (e.g. 1930's depression, 1989 Nikkei collapse) tells you that all these band aids [a Roger's term] which Paulson, Brown et al continue to apply will ultimately make things worse not better. At the moment the vast sums of new money are being hoarded by the banks hence why we're seeing deflation on a mass scale. But history also tells you that at some point this money will show up in the economy and at that point expect (a) massive inflation particularly in cost of living items (where leverage is far less prevalent) and ( interest rates (esp. the US 30 year bond) to sky-rocket. Gold is trading (and I think will continue to trade) in the $750-$950 range for the foreseable future. In some ways it has done well (i.e. a whole lot better than other commodities and other asset classes) because it is viewed as money and so is less vulnerable to recessionary fears relating to the real economy. On the other hand, it has disappointed somewhat too because it's movements have not convincingly reflected its reputation as a safe haven 'no counter-party risk' asset class. I will continue though to buy gold on the dips, not so much because I'm bullish on it but more because I'm bearish on almost everything else. "

[allyjcambo]

This is an extract from an email I just sent a mate who was asking me what I thought about what's going on. It borrows on many of the ideas (a) posted here and ( spouted by the likes of Rogers, Turk, Bonner and the rest. So nothing original, but it reflects my take on events. Very happy to be contradicted though if people disagree...

 

"History (e.g. 1930's depression, 1989 Nikkei collapse) tells you that all these band aids [a Roger's term] which Paulson, Brown et al continue to apply will ultimately make things worse not better. At the moment the vast sums of new money are being hoarded by the banks hence why we're seeing deflation on a mass scale. But history also tells you that at some point this money will show up in the economy and at that point expect (a) massive inflation particularly in cost of living items (where leverage is far less prevalent) and ( interest rates (esp. the US 30 year bond) to sky-rocket. Gold is trading (and I think will continue to trade) in the $750-$950 range for the foreseable future. In some ways it has done well (i.e. a whole lot better than other commodities and other asset classes) because it is viewed as money and so is less vulnerable to recessionary fears relating to the real economy. On the other hand, it has disappointed somewhat too because it's movements have not convincingly reflected its reputation as a safe haven 'no counter-party risk' asset class. I will continue though to buy gold on the dips, not so much because I'm bullish on it but more because I'm bearish on almost everything else. "

 

P.S. the smily faces are meant to be "(B)s" !

[allyjcambo]

P.S. the smily faces are meant to be "(B)s" !

 

P.P.S smily faces do not want to go away. F&ckers.

They're supposed to be "b"

[kernull]

[rgleeson]

 

Im no chartist, but for a channel, you sure don't have much graph in it...

 

 

[rgleeson]

 

I dont think we'll see 650 again, the PTT will step in to make sure my savings aren't wiped out...

[Justin Thyme]

As for GF's 'get out of the kitchen' comment. Well, it's blunt, but it's true. What else would you expect from GF? :-) I fail to see how anyone following this board's overall views on PMs could fail to see that there are no guarantees with gold or silver, especially when the whole of the world's economic powers are pulling out all the stops to make sure normal service is resumed ASAP. It is the long term cost of that intervention which we're looking for protection from, not the daily lottery of the exchanges which govern gold prices as well as shares.

 

Fully appreciate that reasoning but we also have to remember that PMs will rise in value as more new investors get on board ie Joe Public. I realise that the shenanigans going on over at the COMEX don't reflect this . . . yet but, ultimately, more people buying in means the higher prices for PMs from which we'll all benefit. We're counting on PMs becoming a bubble from which, I'd imagine, we'll all want to get out of before it pops one day some years hence.

 

I've been invested in PMs for just over a year now and I've only recently hardened my conkers to the volatility through more reading and the realisation of the sheer scale of manipulation going on but the triumph of PMs over this misinformation and deliberate fiddling is dependent upon investor education and that is the aim of this forum, yes ?

 

Right or wrong, it would've been better to point Ologhai in the direction of a relevant article or post.

 

[sash777]

We can all throw together charts and draw lines and suddenyl see clear trends on them - however this does not account in any way for the situation and circumstances that we are in just now. Previously unheard-of forces are pulling on currencies, stock markets, commodities and PM's. Bond this with redundancies, unpredictable government manipulation and panicking masses and I genuinely do not see how your charts can account for all of these factors. None of us can possibly make these calls on charts.

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

We can all throw together charts and draw lines and suddenyl see clear trends on them - however this does not account in any way for the situation and circumstances that we are in just now. Previously unheard-of forces are pulling on currencies, stock markets, commodities and PM's. Bond this with redundancies, unpredictable government manipulation and panicking masses and I genuinely do not see how your charts can account for all of these factors. None of us can possibly make these calls on charts.

 

 

yep - the charts can sometimes help from a ta pov, but given the backdrop of huge manipulation in major markets caused by excessive liquidity and add to that a massive de-leveraging into the $ at the moment, there is little the charts can tell us at this point in time.

 

keep the faith, gold will shine; I am fully prepared for a re-test of 700 so bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!

[rgleeson]

How about a small scientific study:

 

I'll take some real but secret cuts from historical price movements across equities, bonds, markets, and the chartists can do their analysis type thing, and we'll see how close the results match actual movement?

 

Any takers, or doesn't it work in retrospect?

[kernull]

Im no chartist, but for a channel, you sure don't have much graph in it...

 

what do you mean?

[gwizzie]

How about a small scientific study:

 

I'll take some real but secret cuts from historical price movements across equities, bonds, markets, and the chartists can do their analysis type thing, and we'll see how close the results match actual movement?

 

Any takers, or doesn't it work in retrospect?

 

I think bubb tried that a while ago. May be more participants now

[kernull]

I dont think we'll see 650 again, the PTT will step in to make sure my savings aren't wiped out...

 

hmm, no, that's not 650, thats around 680, but it's a projection only, when we get close to that timeframe we will precise it

[kernull]

I dont think we'll see 650 again, the PTT will step in to make sure my savings aren't wiped out...

 

hmm, no, that's not 650, thats around 680, but it's a projection only, when we get close to that timeframe we will precise it

[CharlieSays]

We can all throw together charts and draw lines and suddenyl see clear trends on them

 

 

Its not following fundamentals either...

I always find ker's analysis a useful insight, personally im not day trading and until pay day not topping up.

might get me some oil come month end but thats for a different thread. Then again tinned chicken might be an option.

 

Husband eats 50-year-old chicken.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/4693520.stm