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We can all throw together charts and draw lines and suddenyl see clear trends on them - however this does not account in any way for the situation and circumstances that we are in just now. Previously unheard-of forces are pulling on currencies, stock markets, commodities and PM's. Bond this with redundancies, unpredictable government manipulation and panicking masses and I genuinely do not see how your charts can account for all of these factors. None of us can possibly make these calls on charts.

 

I partly agree, however I do think charts are a very healthy method of DYOR (thanks ker ;) ) and enables you to explore in advance how you would feel and react to about likely and rational outcomes.

 

By being prepared like this, it helps analyse and respond to turns and events with less emotional attachment and a good leveled head.

 

Although having said that, if gold drops to $400 I'm sure all leveled headedness will go out the window (not literally I hope!) :D

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Although having said that, if gold drops to $400 I'm sure all leveled headedness will go out the window (not literally I hope!) :D

 

I'm wondering if I am the only one who thinks that no matter what the POG falls to I won't sell? I believe the fundamentals and I believe that gold will both protect my wealth and will also turn a 'profit' in the sense that my modest stash will buy more of a house in a couple of years time than it will today. That's why I bought it in the first place.

If the POG falls to $400 then I'll loose money selling at that value (so I won't sell). If it falls to, say $200 then there is barely any point in selling it as I'm not going to get much cash so I'd keep holding. I guess for me the outcome will either be a great profit or great loss.

 

Knowing I am in till the end does mean I sleep very well at night though :) Maybe I am just wierd like that!

 

EDIT: Thinking about it, if I hadn't bought gold, I would be guilty (in my mind) of not having done everything I could to protect myself. So I would be worried. As I have got gold, I have done all I can in order to prepare for the future. I think it's that sense of 'well I've given it my best shot, if it all goes wrong then at least I tried' that keeps me calm .

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I'm wondering if I am the only one who thinks that no matter what the POG falls to I won't sell?

 

Excellent point! I'm in a pickle since I have savings in GoldMoney, yet I really want to emigrate out of the UK, so will need funds (I have no STR fund, just a few years savings). So I could hold on waiting, but then again I might need to raise the minimum capital for emigration.

 

Does any one know if its easy to add say an NZ or Canadian bank account to an existing GBP GM account? I guess Tax could be tricky, if I bought in GBP and sold in another currency, could that get complicated? Who would the tax go to :blink:

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Understand what you are saying, but to me that only applies to my physical gold and silver.

As I believe the comex is being manipulated, then it makes sense for me to buy and sell paper gold and silver...it also gives me a chance if PM goes to the moon as hopefully I will not need to actually sell my physical...

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I'm wondering if I am the only one who thinks that no matter what the POG falls to I won't sell? I believe the fundamentals and I believe that gold will both protect my wealth and will also turn a 'profit' in the sense that my modest stash will buy more of a house in a couple of years time than it will today. That's why I bought it in the first place.

If the POG falls to $400 then I'll loose money selling at that value (so I won't sell). If it falls to, say $200 then there is barely any point in selling it as I'm not going to get much cash so I'd keep holding. I guess for me the outcome will either be a great profit or great loss.

 

Knowing I am in till the end does mean I sleep very well at night though :) Maybe I am just wierd like that!

 

EDIT: Thinking about it, if I hadn't bought gold, I would be guilty (in my mind) of not having done everything I could to protect myself. So I would be worried. As I have got gold, I have done all I can in order to prepare for the future. I think it's that sense of 'well I've given it my best shot, if it all goes wrong then at least I tried' that keeps me calm .

 

I see your point, but isn't there a danger of denial on this subject. It certainly has been making sense to have gold over the recent past, but if the situation really does change, then doesn't it make sense to adjust one's strategy rather than clinging to the old one?

 

If, for the sake of argument, the problems in the financial system level out, and we just have a deflationary depression (just!) - then wouldn't it make sense to give up on one's expectations about gold? If not, why not?

 

I think it's that sense of 'well I've given it my best shot, if it all goes wrong then at least I tried' that keeps me calm .

 

I agree, in an unprecedented situation like the current crisis this is pretty much all any of us can do. Do the best we can and hope for the best.

 

 

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I went to bed yesterday thinking about narco's suggestion of bouncing from the old trendline, and I also listened to Bob Hoye, and Tom O'Brien forecasting bottoms and new highs, but I reverified again this morning on the weekly chart, and I did not find any bullish sign. Yes, maybe we could get a bounce, but it should not go past 820. The long-term patterns are weighting too much. Check this chart:

gold1018-bearsigns.png

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I have now finished my analysis for the silver pnf charts, using the same methodology as I used earlier for gold.

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$silver,P

 

Using the above chart and a ruler, here are my guestimates:

If Silver breaks through 9.00 support, then will go to 5.5 or 5.0 as lowest.

If Silver breaks through 10.5 resistance, then will go to 12, and past that to 16.

 

So, if I had to choose Gold Vs Silver at the moment I would go for Silver whilst I wait for Gold to come down to 740, 715 or 700...

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

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I have now finished my analysis for the silver pnf charts, using the same methodology as I used earlier for gold.

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$silver,P

 

Using the above chart and a ruler, here are my guestimates:

If Silver breaks through 9.00 support, then will go to 5.5 or 5.0 as lowest.

If Silver breaks through 10.5 resistance, then will go to 12, and past that to 16.

 

So, if I had to choose Gold Vs Silver at the moment I would go for Silver whilst I wait for Gold to come down to 740, 715 or 700...

 

What do you guys think?

PnF charts are garbage imo. Only last week the gold one has a bullish price objective of $1350 and now shows $690.

 

I'm not looking at the chart right now but silver has massive support around $6.50.

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PnF charts are garbage imo. Only last week the gold one has a bullish price objective of $1350 and now shows $690.

 

I'm not looking at the chart right now but silver has massive support around $6.50.

 

I agree that StockChart's Price Objective is crap (if you what you say is true, then the PO for last week was not only wrong but miles away from 845 that i would have calculated) - I have never used stockchart's PO in any of my clacs...but that does not make PnF charts crap. Still a useful tool in my book.

 

Anyways, will keep going at this to see if it is useful or not. Let me know if you want me to continue sharing my info.

 

 

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Please review:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/stott030803.html

 

One web site says that gold should be stored in Switzerland! Of all the asinine advice ever given, that takes the cake. You own gold to hedge yourself and protect yourself, correct? Then why would you want to store it any place but in your own home or place of safety and easy access? Gold ten thousand miles away, is an absurdity, just as is gold in some account off shore in the Caribbean or other inaccessible place. If times get rough, as we thought they would with Y2K, would you have stored your food, water, generator or flashlights in a distant city or country? Of course not. If you go out in a boat to catch some fish, do you leave your life preserver on shore? If you go for a swim, do you leave your swim suit at home? Why would you leave your silver in a warehouse, your gold at some distant place, or your food in the grocery store, and especially after you have paid for it? Honestly, I sometimes think I am writing to first graders.

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OK - Open question to all: Is Gold Money safe? I have 10% PM....want more, but is physical the only real way? GoldMoney looks good to me...but as Pluto says - why leave your life jacket at home when you go out sailing?

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OK - Open question to all: Is Gold Money safe? I have 10% PM....want more, but is physical the only real way? GoldMoney looks good to me...but as Pluto says - why leave your life jacket at home when you go out sailing?

 

Safe is what [you] determine as safe - not what someone else tells you. The financial world is collapsing and governments are rewriting the rule book daily.

 

Leaving assets in foreign country is making the assumption that the crisis is local; but what if it is global?

 

Have you tried to buy bullion recently? That should point in the right direction.

 

Don't be caught with your pants down.

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...

Anyways, will keep going at this to see if it is useful or not. Let me know if you want me to continue sharing my info.

 

Yes, please keep posting you PnF chart stuff.

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Lets face it, the US is going to try and inflate the debt away. I assume that the recent dollar rally has more to do with the forthcoming election and investors running to cash. I'm guessing the dollar declines again soon. The weekly chart shows the dollar index hitting some resistance on the 200MA.

 

I'm even thinking oil would be the ultimate contrarian play just now. :blink:

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GoldGBP.jpg

 

Ker, I am wondering what you make of this chart?

 

 

 

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Please review:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/stott030803.html

 

One web site says that gold should be stored in Switzerland! Of all the asinine advice ever given, that takes the cake. You own gold to hedge yourself and protect yourself, correct? Then why would you want to store it any place but in your own home or place of safety and easy access? Gold ten thousand miles away, is an absurdity, just as is gold in some account off shore in the Caribbean or other inaccessible place. If times get rough, as we thought they would with Y2K, would you have stored your food, water, generator or flashlights in a distant city or country? Of course not. If you go out in a boat to catch some fish, do you leave your life preserver on shore? If you go for a swim, do you leave your swim suit at home? Why would you leave your silver in a warehouse, your gold at some distant place, or your food in the grocery store, and especially after you have paid for it? Honestly, I sometimes think I am writing to first graders.

 

 

This makes sense, however some here feel a gold stash over three continents is the best safeguard for a worse case scenario.

Or for those without these logistical abilities how about long term holdings stashed in a safe deposit- neutral country, medium term holdings with the likes of Goldmoney and short term / 0 - 12 months hidden in your backyard or similiar?

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gold1018-bearchannels.png

 

 

Another round of beers!

Great charting.

imho we are going lower, SHTF in increasing volumes this week on.

I will be selling gold on 3 & 6 month forward contracts whilst taking long term physical delivery next week.

Good luck all.

 

 

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Excellent point! I'm in a pickle since I have savings in GoldMoney, yet I really want to emigrate out of the UK, so will need funds (I have no STR fund, just a few years savings). So I could hold on waiting, but then again I might need to raise the minimum capital for emigration.

 

Does any one know if its easy to add say an NZ or Canadian bank account to an existing GBP GM account? I guess Tax could be tricky, if I bought in GBP and sold in another currency, could that get complicated? Who would the tax go to :blink:

 

You can hold cash in euro, £, $ and can$ in GM - and transfer between for an exchange fee. Doubt if they'll add nz$ a/c for you.

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I see your point, but isn't there a danger of denial on this subject. It certainly has been making sense to have gold over the recent past, but if the situation really does change, then doesn't it make sense to adjust one's strategy rather than clinging to the old one?

 

If, for the sake of argument, the problems in the financial system level out, and we just have a deflationary depression (just!) - then wouldn't it make sense to give up on one's expectations about gold? If not, why not?

 

I agree, in an unprecedented situation like the current crisis this is pretty much all any of us can do. Do the best we can and hope for the best.

 

I completely agree with you. I think the problem I have is choosing the point to draw the line in the sand and say 'to here but no further'. This stems from 2 beliefs:

1) I think that gold will hold value and be (relatively) worth what I paid for it at some point in the (long term) future (i.e. up to 20 years). Like I said before, if I didn't think this, I wouldn't have bought into it in the first place.

2) The world is in a massive financial crisis, the likes of which could bring about massive social upheaval, the effects of which will last for years.

 

So these beliefs makes it very difficult to say 'right, when the POG falls to $400 (for example) I will call it quits and sell before I loose any more' as I 'know' that this is likely to be a temporary reduction in value. In a deflationary depression I suspect I would have no idea at what point I would loose less money by selling the gold at a 'loss' than holding on to it for 5/10 more years.

 

Essentially I don't think the POG is what is going to shake me out of the market. If they invent a gold making machine, or all gold becomes contaminated or illegal or to life then that will separate us (me and my gold). The only other way is when I need the locking value to buy a house / fund my old age (!) or when I guestimate we are near a peak of value and the financial world is stable enough to go back to the bank.

 

I'm starting to sound like a gold addict (but at least one who knows he can't give it up!)

 

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Ker, I am wondering what you make of this chart?

 

remember that market always price future expectations. when you sell december contract, is that you think that in december prices will be lower. Current prices for physical are just fine, they were priced months before. Dealers (goldmoney, BV, coin dealers) will not be losing money just because market expects lower prices in the future, they will sell their inventories at the price that will allow them to make profits. Otherwise, they will say you "there is no gold", and what they really mean is "there is no cheap gold yet because i bought it more expensive than the actual spot price"

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remember that market always price future expectations. when you sell december contract, is that you think that in december prices will be lower. Current prices for physical are just fine, they were priced months before. Dealers (goldmoney, BV, coin dealers) will not be losing money just because market expects lower prices in the future, they will sell their inventories at the price that will allow them to make profits. Otherwise, they will say you "there is no gold", and what they really mean is "there is no cheap gold yet because i bought it more expensive than the actual spot price"

 

I was more thinking of gold valued in GBP-Gold chart rather than BV itself, sorry it was the only place I have for UK chart. It looks a lot more positive than the USD-Gold one to me.

 

I know of the problems at BV, is GM having problems fulfilling orders as well?

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remember that market always price future expectations. when you sell december contract, is that you think that in december prices will be lower. Current prices for physical are just fine, they were priced months before. Dealers (goldmoney, BV, coin dealers) will not be losing money just because market expects lower prices in the future, they will sell their inventories at the price that will allow them to make profits. Otherwise, they will say you "there is no gold", and what they really mean is "there is no cheap gold yet because i bought it more expensive than the actual spot price"

 

Any links to that hypothesis ?

 

Anyway here is a interesting chart.

 

 

 

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I was more thinking of gold valued in GBP-Gold chart rather than BV itself, sorry it was the only place I have for UK chart. It looks a lot more positive than the USD-Gold one to me.

 

I know of the problems at BV, is GM having problems fulfilling orders as well?

 

There is this one, which has the advantage of moving averages:

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p06579893092

 

I prefer the BV one.

 

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Please review:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/stott030803.html

 

One web site says that gold should be stored in Switzerland! Of all the asinine advice ever given, that takes the cake. You own gold to hedge yourself and protect yourself, correct? Then why would you want to store it any place but in your own home or place of safety and easy access? Gold ten thousand miles away, is an absurdity, just as is gold in some account off shore in the Caribbean or other inaccessible place. If times get rough, as we thought they would with Y2K, would you have stored your food, water, generator or flashlights in a distant city or country? Of course not. If you go out in a boat to catch some fish, do you leave your life preserver on shore? If you go for a swim, do you leave your swim suit at home? Why would you leave your silver in a warehouse, your gold at some distant place, or your food in the grocery store, and especially after you have paid for it? Honestly, I sometimes think I am writing to first graders.

 

 

Protect your family and yourself.

 

Never store all your valuables at home.

 

The risk is too great in times of hardship.

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