GOLD

[Pixel8r]

I am wondering when all this buying is going to start moving the price and where they are getting it from. If it's the comex december contract we could be on for the default mentioned. Surely the numbers being mentioned would have a large effect.

 

Saudi Arabia buys $3.5bn of gold in two weeks

 

China's Gold Rush

 

Iran switches reserves to gold

 

[kernull]

Thanks for the charts Ker, I sincerely appreciate your views.

I wasn't trying to be sarcarstic, just pointing out that in this debate on POG declining, it has been getting steadily more expensive to buy for anyone with GBP.

Which I imagine would be quite a few people on here.

 

what I have read so far, is that GBP is going to plunge, so, rather than base purchases on the gold chart, people who live in UK should analyze GBP/USD . I am in Mexico and I got out of my pesos long time ago.

I just saw the chart of GBP/USD and i it broke 1.5200 , this was major support , this means GBP is going to 1.1000 on a long term (next 6 months could be?) , and on a short term it could stop at 1.3500 in 2-3 weeks. Then it should make a pull back to 1.4900 and then a final move to 1.1000 (but maybe it could not reach 1.49 and exhaust earlier). So, on a long term, in GBPs you will have price close to 1,000, the entry point right now is ok.

[notanewmember]

I am wondering when all this buying is going to start moving the price and where they are getting it from. If it's the comex december contract we could be on for the default mentioned. Surely the numbers being mentioned would have a large effect.

 

Saudi Arabia buys $3.5bn of gold in two weeks

 

China's Gold Rush

 

Iran switches reserves to gold

 

As predicted in the film Rollover

 

Davifd Morgan re-inacts

 

Footage from movie

[romans holiday]

Am I right so far? What else might happen?

People might start growing vegetables... and raising chooks?

[signofthetimes]

Anyone buying physical at the mo (and at these premiums)?

 

I'm 20% in (mainly gold and some silver) and want to increase my stake

 

my last purchase in July bought me nuggets and Eagles @ £460 each.......now selling for circa £560

 

Sovs and bars work out a bit cheaper per oz (CID)

 

keep powder dry or buy now? who's doing the best deals? (I won't buy off ebay!)

 

edit : 1000g bar on CID works out at £504/oz, 2% over spot..............

[G0ldfinger]

Exponential squared, to be precise.

...

Not sure about this , Magpie.

 

A function that looks exponential in a log-chart is e.g. exp(exp(x)). I would not call this exp-squared. "Exp-squared" would make me think of [exp(x)]^2 = exp(2x) or, maybe, exp(x^2) instead.

Anyway, I doubt there is official nomenclatura on this. Re-iterated exponential function would possibly do it.

[Magpie]

Not sure about this , Magpie.

 

A function that looks exponential in a log-chart is e.g. exp(exp(x)). I would not call this exp-squared. "Exp-squared" would make me think of [exp(x)]^2 = exp(2x) or, maybe, exp(x^2) instead.

Anyway, I doubt there is official nomenclatura on this. Re-iterated exponential function would possibly do it.

 

Ouch, you outpedanted me.

 

Bravo.

 

[bitbigt]

Not sure about this , Magpie.

 

A function that looks exponential in a log-chart is e.g. exp(exp(x)). I would not call this exp-squared. "Exp-squared" would make me think of [exp(x)]^2 = exp(2x) or, maybe, exp(x^2) instead.

Anyway, I doubt there is official nomenclatura on this. Re-iterated exponential function would possibly do it.

'cos I've got nothing better to do just now...

 

Exponential functions are LogN(X) [N = logarithmic base, X = value]

This is usually plotted with N = 2, though that is not a requirement as an exponential growth would be a straight line using any value of N

 

"Exp-squared" would then be (LogN(X)) x (LogN(X)) [which is the same as (LogN(X))^2]

That would indeed be an increasing curve on a standard exponential plot of X

 

If that is what is going to happen to PM prices, then we just won't have enough rocket pictures between us

 

[bitbigt]

'cos I've got nothing better to do just now...

 

Exponential functions are LogN(X) [N = logarithmic base, X = value]

This is usually plotted with N = 2, though that is not a requirement as an exponential growth would be a straight line using any value of N

 

"Exp-squared" would then be (LogN(X)) x (LogN(X)) [which is the same as (LogN(X))^2]

That would indeed be an increasing curve on a standard exponential plot of X

 

If that is what is going to happen to PM prices, then we just won't have enough rocket pictures between us

wahey... look what these last few postings have done to the PoG

[cgnao]

[peterb]

If one considers gold and silver to be monetary metals, then there should be a gold and silver index as most currencies have.

This would be the best global benchmark.

 

Ker, would be nice to see a Gold index chart - what do you say?

[cgnao]

 

 

[wren]

Not sure about this , Magpie.

 

A function that looks exponential in a log-chart is e.g. exp(exp(x)). I would not call this exp-squared. "Exp-squared" would make me think of [exp(x)]^2 = exp(2x) or, maybe, exp(x^2) instead.

Anyway, I doubt there is official nomenclatura on this. Re-iterated exponential function would possibly do it.

According to Wikipedia a double exponential is:

A double exponential function is a constant raised to the power of an exponential function. The general formula is f(x) = a^{b^x}, which grows even faster than an exponential function

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_exponential_function

but:

The term double exponential function can have two meanings:

 

* a function with two exponential terms, with different exponents

* a function f(x) = a^{b^x}; this grows even faster than an exponential function; for example, if a = 10: f(−1) = 1.26, f(0) = 10, f(1) = 1010, f(2) = 10100 = googol, ..., f(100) = googolplex.

 

Factorials grow faster than exponential functions, but slower than double-exponential functions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_f...ential_function

So the term is a bit ambiguous.

 

There's also the double exponential distribution, also called the Laplace distribution:

It is also known as the double exponential distribution, because it can be thought of as two exponential distributions (with an additional location parameter) spliced together back-to-back.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplace_distribution

 

Anyway, f(x) = a^{b^x} was what came to my mind from the term double exponential.

[grumpy-old-man]

I hope I NEVER get stuck in a lift with the 'exponential' crew.

[notanewmember]

Idea of old prices in 2003

 

http://www.investmentguide.co.uk/goldcoin.htm

 

How worthwhile Gold is generally not a good investment when inflation is low as it is at present. Make sure you don't pay VAT on the whole price as the dealer margin scheme for second-hand coins is optional. Another way to invest in gold is to buy shares of gold mining companies or a unit trust specialising in these companies and now there is a tracker fund called Gold Bullion Securities which is quoted on the London Stock Exchange. Gold is traded in US$ so fluctuations in the £/$ exchange rate can also affect how much money you can make or lose.

 

Minimum The price of 1 coin. With gold at £187.35 a Troy ounce, one second-hand sovereign might cost £51 including VAT on the dealer's margin. To sell you would get £44 each. Krugerrands might cost £201each and sell to a dealer at £189. The dealers margin is closer for larger deals, say, 100 sovereigns and 25 krugerrands. For 25 krugerrands the buying price might be £199 and the selling price back to a dealer £190. You may, however, find difficulty trading in large amounts while wishing to avoid VAT.

 

Lesson - Inflation - no one knows whats round the corner.

[peterb]

 

 

Good one CG.

Just can't find any up-to-date or live feeds with this data.

Stockcharts doesn't seem to have anything either - calculation $GOLD:1/$USD - doesn't work there.

[G0ldfinger]

I hope I NEVER get stuck in a lift with the 'exponential' crew.

At least we know now that the more accepted term is double exponential - makes sense IMO.

[Compounded]

 

I am sure GF has a similar chart or charts of the 70's gold bull, it too seemed less spiky in GBP than USD.

 

Is this a coincidence or is there a reason?

 

The 70's GBP chart gave me the impression that in GBP missing the blow off peak in 1980 and selling somewhat late was potentially much less costly than trying to sell before the blow off and risking selling too early.

 

I am coming to the opinion that as gold is insurance I will not try to time a blow off peak, infact this seems even more sensible if cg's total economic collapse happens which is looking more likely as every month passes.

 

 

 

[wren]

What does KGX stand for?

 

(I did try Googling it.)

[wren]

I hope I NEVER get stuck in a lift with the 'exponential' crew.

Can't blame you Grumps - factorials are much more fun.

 

But your comment inspired me to discover this piece of trivia: if, on YouTube, you search for "lift fart Clouseau" you get nothing relevant. But if you try "elevator fart Clouseau" it works.

 

Minor word differences count, it seems.

 

Oh, here's the clip:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu6QBoDPw9U

[peterb]

What does KGX stand for?

 

(I did try Googling it.)

 

Kitco Gold Index.

 

It shows gold against a basket of currencies - similar to the US dollar index.

It makes more sense to measure gold against an index rather than any particular currency, in order to determine it's true relative worth.

 

Just can't fiind any other up to date gold index sources.

 

Ker, for any TA people out there, it would be best to run your analysis off a gold index chart - it may make more sense.

[gwizzie]

Saudi Arabia buys $3.5bn of gold in two weeks

[Steve Netwriter]

The 10 year one is interesting.

 

 

The non-US$ version doesn't have the large price bump/fall, and looks much more like a steady trend.

 

 

from: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=77145

 

[bitbigt]

 

The KGX index gives a far better picture of the true trend in PoG.

 

However, the dollar's effect is still very apparent - for example, the dip in mid-2004 was due to US base interest rates being raised at that time, and the hump in mid-2007 was due to the temporary weakening of the dollar as they lowered interest rates.

 

Extrapolating to the future, as the USDX falls (as the dollar collapses) then gold will shoot up in USD, and in KGX (i.e., all other currencies) as well.

 

Or to put it another way - if the KGX indicates the true trend, and so we believe its extension into the future, then a rapid increase in PoG in USD terms is due quite soon.

[warpig]

Does someone know why Saudi Arabia and Iran buying lots of gold hasn't sent the POG through the roof? Are these effectively private sales?