Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 30.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • G0ldfinger

    2616

  • romans holiday

    2235

  • drbubb

    1478

  • Steve Netwriter

    1449

ok, no rockets... but we HAVE to be allowed this!

http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php

 

Yeeeeaaaaahhhhh :D :D

 

 

Gold went up today measured against the US$ and the US$ Index:

 

KGI_081122.gif

 

 

The Kitco chart:

 

Kitco_081122.gif

 

 

And the Kitco Pool Account, that has been suggested as the best guide to price.

 

Kitco_Pool_Account_081122.gif

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He is even on Bernard's site:

 

Video: How ‘Dr Doom’ Peter Schiff was right in 2006 and 2007

November 20th, 2008

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index....-2006-and-2007/

 

What is funny is that most of the people who comment on his site already know all the sensible people like Peter :D

 

Boy you guys and gals are quick on the draw with posts!! :rolleyes:

 

Here is the edited (slightly shorter YouTube version):

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=pGHODRNJqRo

 

Predicted $1000 pog this year – and it did

Predicts $2000 for 2009

 

SafeBetter

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Peter Schiff has just been on Bloomberg tonight on FinalWord, so keep an eye out for the video, worth the watch.

 

In the meantime until I can find the link here are some notes I took:

 

- Sees a blood bath in bonds

- Bonds in bull market since 1980’s

- Bond performance will move back to 1970’s levels

- dollar index to 40, possibly 20?! :blink:

- Treasury may not default, but they will pay you back in junk bonds, AAA rated or not (they are hyper inflating), sub-prime was AAA

- 5 to10 years left in this bear market

- Stocks to lose 90 of real value (against gold) may retain nominal value in $ terms

- Gold between $4000-$6000 (not able to be firm on timescale) :P:P

- US needs a recession & some retail pain / need to shrink the sector / stop throwing more debt at it

- US need to start saving / start withdrawing equity/using credit

- US need to start manufacturing

- Creditor countries will slow/stop loans to US

 

The other two guys (Jack Malvey, Barclays Capital & Pado – Cantor Fitzgerald) in the interview look at Peter like he's from another world :lol::lol:

 

SafeBetter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More comedy and bullish views from Mr Manduca:

 

Manduca Forecasts Commodities `Boom,' Gold Up to $2000

 

Again he turns to camera and says "Mr Brown is doing as I asked him and has lowered interest rates" :lol::lol::lol:

 

Very down on Mervyn King, backing Blanchflower in MPC.

 

Synopsis:

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Philip Manduca, head of investments at ECU Group, talks with Bloomberg's John Dawson about his forecast for the U.K. economy, the pound and a commodities ``boom'' from 2009 to 2011. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

00:00 Sees BOE rate cut of 1.25 percent in December

02:24 U.K. unemployment, economy, pound, equities

07:09 Sees pound rising next year, euro decline

07:50 Dollar rally coming to an end, bullish on £ against $ in 2009

09:35 Expects commodity boom 2009-2011, China

12:05 Food commodities, equities at "fair value"

12:45 Oil demand, sees gold price rising to $2000

13:30 Not soup kitchens and 25% unemployment

14:49 Quantative Easing

15:40 If gold breaks anywhere above $800 – look out!

Running time 15:51

 

Not sure I agree with his £ vs. $ views, I think more of the race to the bottom of $1=£1=1Euro - thoughts?

 

SafeBetter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We will sooner or later be entering $100+ moves in the POG per Jim Sinclair - that is the nature of the illuminist teased Bull, trying to crsuh the goldbug riders - let's face it, the fundamentals and history sez that gold should be well into the $2-3,000 range by now - it is ALL fraudulent noise, and the ebay market disconnect will just get bigger and bigger as time goes by. When gold becomes a pohibited item on ebay (a terrorist money laundering tool) we'll really know we are in business...

 

That's possible, I was hoping that so few have aquired physical gold it would slip under the radar and be irrelevant in the great scheme of things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We will sooner or later be entering $100+ moves in the POG per Jim Sinclair - that is the nature of the illuminist teased Bull, trying to crsuh the goldbug riders - let's face it, the fundamentals and history sez that gold should be well into the $2-3,000 range by now - it is ALL fraudulent noise, and the ebay market disconnect will just get bigger and bigger as time goes by. When gold becomes a pohibited item on ebay (a terrorist money laundering tool) we'll really know we are in business...

I think now that we have seen such a big move upward in gold -in the midst of a deflationary scare - some of those nagging doubts, about how gold might perform in the coming months, are easier to put to rest. That said, if we get another bout of forced liquidation we could [hopefully] see gold down again.

 

It would only be a great buying opportunity as it is becoming increasingly obvious, even to the sceptics, where gold is heading.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think now that we have seen such a big move upward in gold -in the midst of a deflationary scare - some of those nagging doubts, about how gold might perform in the coming months, are easier to put to rest. That said, if we get another bout of forced liquidation we could [hopefully] see gold down again.

 

It would only be a great buying opportunity as it is becoming increasingly obvious, even to the sceptics, where gold is heading.

 

The WSJ just reported that Citigroup's been in talks with the Fed and the Treasury. Could be that, come Monday, we could be looking "Morgan Stanley-Citi" and another round of CDS auctions. Makes me think that Paulson didn't deploy the remaining $350bn of the TARP because he knew he was going to need it to nationalize Citigroup.

 

If Citi goes over the weekend, gold might sell off a bit.

 

Just heard that GM board members are "willing to consider Chapter 11 bankruptcy" . . .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Peter Schiff has just been on Bloomberg tonight on FinalWord, so keep an eye out for the video, worth the watch.

 

In the meantime until I can find the link here are some notes I took:

 

- Sees a blood bath in bonds

- Bonds in bull market since 1980’s

- Bond performance will move back to 1970’s levels

- dollar index to 40, possibly 20?! :blink:

- Treasury may not default, but they will pay you back in junk bonds, AAA rated or not (they are hyper inflating), sub-prime was AAA

- 5 to10 years left in this bear market

- Stocks to lose 90 of real value (against gold) may retain nominal value in $ terms

- Gold between $4000-$6000 (not able to be firm on timescale) :P:P

- US needs a recession & some retail pain / need to shrink the sector / stop throwing more debt at it

- US need to start saving / start withdrawing equity/using credit

- US need to start manufacturing

- Creditor countries will slow/stop loans to US

 

The other two guys (Jack Malvey, Barclays Capital & Pado – Cantor Fitzgerald) in the interview look at Peter like he's from another world :lol::lol:

 

SafeBetter

 

Thanks for the summary. Very good :D

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you thinking of selling some of your stash?

Yes. But only around 10% on a future spike to say 900. I know the value of gold and if I can use the deflationary period to add to my stash, all the better.

 

My circumstances are a bit peculiar:

Most of my worth is already in gold so selling a little for cash is no big deal. If the price does not dip back down no big problem.

 

Also, I am earning Korean Won. The Won has declined from US .90 to US 1.50! If the won declines further along with a spike I will sell a few ounces. The Won could easily strengthen and gold dip for me to near double up on what I sold.

 

If the speculative punt does not play out and I get stuck with some worth-less won, it is not too much of a worry as it has held its value relatively well against the NZ dollar, my native currency.

 

A month ago.. when gold last spiked to 900, I could have sold a 3 ounce bar [bought 3 months earlier] for near US 1000 profit.

 

I think this situation with Won could be seen with a lot of currencies in the near future. My core position is gold and I consider it my base currency. I am of the buy and hold type though I do not see any harm in trading 10% of my holding. As long as deflationary forces are in the drivers seat, I think there will be good opportunities to trade, but I will keep that trading light with a speculative amount that I would not miss if unable to replace.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dare you to say gold is likely to fall after reading this :P:D

 

 

Mint suspends orders amid rush to buy bullion

November 22, 2008

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/busin...337-643,00.html

 

FEARS of the unknown long-term effects from the global financial crisis have sparked a new gold rush.

 

With retail and wholesale clients around the world stocking up on the precious metal, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders.

 

As the World Gold Council reported that the dollar demand for gold reached a quarterly record of $US32 billion ($50.73 billion) in the third quarter, industry insiders said the race to secure physical gold had reached an intensity that had never been witnessed before.

 

Perth Mint sales and marketing director Ron Currie said the unprecedented demand had forced the Mint to cease orders until January, with staff working seven days a week, 24-hour days, over three shifts to meet orders.

 

He said Europe was leading the demand, with Russia, Ukraine, Middle East and US all buying -- making up 80 per cent of its sales. One European client purchased 30,000 ounces for $33 million.

 

"We have never seen this before and are working right at capacity. And we are seeing it from clients in the shop buying one ounce, right up to 30,000 ounces from overseas clients," Mr Currie said.

 

Robert Jaggard, manager of bullion and rare coins dealer Jaggards, said business had picked up strongly and he expected it to increase further.

 

"All around the world there has been a heavy run on physical gold and there is a shortage of supply," he said.

 

Mr Jaggard, who has been dealing in gold for 40 years and is an agent for the Perth Mint, said some clients were buying up to $1million worth of gold, paying a premium above the spot price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a point that came up in Dominic's interview, and is repeated in his article:

 

"Whether it's America, the UK or Europe, there are no sellers. Our stocks are low and we don't know what replacement premiums to charge. The replacement premium isn't apparent because there are no sellers, so we've stopped taking orders until the market settles down."

 

What's really happening in the physical gold and silver markets

By Dominic Frisby Nov 21, 2008

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...kets-14110.aspx

 

 

This appeared as odd to me. I thought Baird bought gold and produced coins & small bars to sell. So what matters to them is the difference in cost of gold in big quantities versus the price to sell. Why would the price of coins to buy back from the public matter at all ?

 

Am I getting this wrong, or does Tony's explanation make no sense ?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think now that we have seen such a big move upward in gold -in the midst of a deflationary scare - some of those nagging doubts, about how gold might perform in the coming months, are easier to put to rest. That said, if we get another bout of forced liquidation we could [hopefully] see gold down again.

 

It would only be a great buying opportunity as it is becoming increasingly obvious, even to the sceptics, where gold is heading.

 

Price of Gold in inflationary times:

Its generally agreed, that people swap their cash for gold, and so PoG goes up.

 

Price of Gold in deflationary times:

Simplistically, many people argue the oposite to the above, and suggest people will swap their gold for cash, and so PoG goes down.

However, in the real world, people also have 'assets' (houses, stocks, art,...) - and in deflationary periods these will drop in price. If you then allow for the fact that people often like to 'own assets' as well as cash, then there's every chance they will sell their other assets and buy gold, and so PoG will go up. Then, as it becomes clear that PMs are the only asset class increasing in price, more will swap their other assets for gold - i.e., a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

I think we're now enterring that period.

 

Finally, inflation will kick in again in 6-12 months time, due to all the Western money printing (now, and in the past), and thats when gold goes to the stratosphere.

 

...IMHO!

 

EDIT: I see the recent heated buying of real gold by the public, and the CB buying spree that's now started, as just a reflection of people realising the above (as 'romans holiday' stated "...even to the sceptics"). And that's a massively important development - because once this realisation is established and widespread, there will be a mad pannick to buy into gold! ...and that widespread realisation is coming about right now !!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...