warpig Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Thanks steve, wren, Wanderer, cdswamp, bigtbigt for the pep talk, I needed it, it's a lot of money to play with! Cheers! We just sat down and talked about everything, it took a while... We have decided to go 10% cash for the unexpected, 45% physical silver and 45% physical gold, very similar to wren's suggestion. I aim to be all in by the middle of Jan at the latest. The 10% cash may find another home but it must be extremely liquid and diverse from our PM holding. BTW - cdswamp we're singing from the same hymn sheet, my savings wouldn't be 100% in to PM's if I weren't. Thanks for the detailed reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 16, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Dec 16 2008, 12:10 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>http://www.gata.org/node/4843Good find. Yes, I also think that the central banks themselves will have to revert to pushing the price of gold beyond all boundaries we've ever dreamt of. They need to create inflation, so they will let gold run once Gold-man Sucks have covered all their shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Thanks steve, wren, Wanderer, cdswamp, bigtbigt for the pep talk, I needed it, it's a lot of money to play with! Cheers! We just sat down and talked about everything, it took a while... We have decided to go 10% cash for the unexpected, 45% physical silver and 45% physical gold, very similar to wren's suggestion. I aim to be all in by the middle of Jan at the latest. The 10% cash may find another home but it must be extremely liquid and diverse from our PM holding. BTW - cdswamp we're singing from the same hymn sheet, my savings wouldn't be 100% in to PM's if I weren't. Thanks for the detailed reply. 45% physical silver. That's a lot. I'd recommend listening to some Bob Hoye. Silver may not be the done deal people think it is. I have a huge holding bought in 05-06 . It is a source of immense frustration to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 16, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 ... Silver may not be the done deal people think it is. I have a huge holding bought in 05-06 . It is a source of immense frustration to me. Yes, it might catch up with gold at a very late stage. But who knows. Anyway, having bought in 05-06 is not all that bad. http://gold.approximity.com/since2005/Silver_GBP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
signofthetimes Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Good find. Yes, I also think that the central banks themselves will have to revert to pushing the price of gold beyond all boundaries we've ever dreamt of. They need to create inflation, so they will let gold run once Gold-man Sucks have covered all their shorts. now that would be a great forum alias! is it copyrighted ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 It is.... OK, I'm listening to a podcast now, is there a specific podcast/article you could point me to? Can you elaborate on why it's a frustration to you? 45% physical silver. That's a lot. I'd recommend listening to some Bob Hoye. Silver may not be the done deal people think it is. I have a huge holding bought in 05-06 . It is a source of immense frustration to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I've just lost an hour's work on this post... The gist of the post was the g:s ratio at worst is 100:1, is currently around 84:1 and if you average all of the g:s ratios for financially turbulent years 1637, 1914-1918, 1929, 1934, 1939-1945 etc... the average ratio I came up with was about 54:1. If JS is correct and I personally think gold will do much better than $1,250/oz, then even at `Bob's average crisis g:s ratio`, this still puts silver at around $23/oz using Jim's $1,250 expected spot rate. 100%+ profit is OK in my book. Am I missing Bob's point? 45% physical silver. That's a lot. I'd recommend listening to some Bob Hoye. Silver may not be the done deal people think it is. I have a huge holding bought in 05-06 . It is a source of immense frustration to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Hi Warpig, You will sleep better at night owning metals during this catastrophe as it plays out - I do, that's for sure. When I was playing gold and silver stocks up to about a year ago, I was not sleeping at night - too volatile and I could sense a general DOW crash, which would pull all metals stocks down, so I got out. At one point I was 50 per cent of all my net worth in AUY Yamana (I got a bit carried away day-trading!), margined x 2 too!, around 15 or 16 dollars, just for a few days, and then I had my epihany and got out completely, and of course AUY collapsed to 4 or 5, and is rebounding to 6, but if I had stayed in, I woud have been wiped out, especially on margin. Prior to this I was 100% in metals, silver gold in a 60/40% ratio. Ideally, long term, gold is the SAFEST way to go, but I always have a problem with patience, tho trying to change that. I sold half to play the gold and silver miners, and now am fully 100% invested in silver 100oz bars, kept in a safe place on my property. The ratio of gold to silver is exceptionally high now, around 80 to 1, and I am going to switch between gold and silver as this volatile ratio swings up and down. I will do all this with physical, not digital trades. It has all worked well so far regarding the trading, but I am well underwater because of the silver collapse. However I am not margined, so can wait it out for silver to rebound to 20 and head north. I originally bought gold at 630, and silver at 13.30 - I am still buying silver at 10'ish, and I guess I am averaged in at maybe 14/15/16'ish, I don't know. At the moment I look at my stash and say to myself, the world financial system is collapsing in slow motion, be patient, because when gold goes to 1200 next April, silver will follow at 30, when gold hits 2500, silver will follow exponentially. I've also just bought a large chunk of gold at Gmoney to cover my daughter's future, by means of transferring out of a zombie pension fund I was in and going for a Gmoney SIPP. 1) Would you keep any in cash in any currency? Not much, no. For me, a few thousand bux is all I keep in cash. My other half and I know the score, and know that a black swan at any time can change things v quickly indeed, and black swans can in Murphy's law fashion come along in pairs or triplets (see Taleb) - so you gotta be in it to win it. I expect to be protected with metals, but I also expect to become quite 'rich' in a detrioratingly awful world when the collapse occurs in earnest, my eventual aim being to sell most metals at the right time in exchange for a safe house in a safe place with resources, i.e a yacht too, for self sufficiency. So practically speaking I don't need cash - if I need cash QUICKLY I go to my local gold/coin/pawn shop guy and he gives me cash on the nose for a 100oz bar, no paperwork, no trail, if I can wait 2 weeks I put the bar on eBay and get an extra 300 bux. This is like averaging out! It is safer than a bank - who needs cash. And once gold/silver uptrend again, you are merely dipping into your savings! Remember, gold is MONEY!!! IT IS CASH!!! 2) What percentage physical gold would you buy? 100% silver at this high ratio. If silver hits 25 or 30 next spring and the ratio drops to 50 or less, swap for gold. Repeat back and forth, in physical only. 3) What percentage physical silver would you buy? I am a gambler so silver holds by far the most potential upside. It will way outperform gold at current artificial prices. When silver spikes tho, it does tend to collapse v quickly, the trick is to swap into cash or gold at the right time. And for me I would only cash out to buy a house or farm. So depending on endgame circumstances I would go gold again. 4) What else would you buy to make sure you don't put all of your eggs in one basket? NS&I indexed linked certs? No paper at all, we are in endgame collapse. Get out of the UKPound, it is going to collapse big time. 5) Given the rate of decline and we're at the 11th hour, over what time frame would you average in to be safe? I would go all in immediately to be SAFE - if you wait, something may happen out of left field, and it may cost you more to get in. Silver at 10 is a total giveaway, I don't care if it drops to 5 again, because eventually it will be trading in the 100s of dollars. Also, hold physical ONLY - no paper gold at all. I'm sure this is all too gung-ho for you Warpig, but I hope it gives you some ideas. Good luck whatever you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Position Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I can't find much written about gold Mexican Libertads, has anyone bought them from CoinInvestDirect? They're currently the lowest premium 1oz coin on offer there. I'm just wondering how they look and feel since the premiums are 9%ish and comparable phils, maples or nuggets are selling around 11-12% over spot. If they're nice I'll buy some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Thanks steve, wren, Wanderer, cdswamp, bigtbigt for the pep talk, I needed it, it's a lot of money to play with! Cheers! We just sat down and talked about everything, it took a while... We have decided to go 10% cash for the unexpected, 45% physical silver and 45% physical gold, very similar to wren's suggestion. I aim to be all in by the middle of Jan at the latest. The 10% cash may find another home but it must be extremely liquid and diverse from our PM holding. BTW - cdswamp we're singing from the same hymn sheet, my savings wouldn't be 100% in to PM's if I weren't. Thanks for the detailed reply. Silver is a scary mare. I have too much of it! More of a gamble IMO - which is what CDSwamp says, I think. Eg. a comment by Jim from OCt': http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2008/10/16/jims-mailbox-10/ Not that I really go along with all of what Jim says there but, still, I'd recommend gold to anyone - silver as a more speculative play. So, maybe think to balance your G & S buys accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Gold is money - therefore a hedge against inflation and deflation: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moolman/moolman121508.html Gold is money. Real money maintains its purchasing power. Real money is a hedge against inflation (increase in credit and paper money supply) and its effects as well as deflation (decrease in credit and paper money supply) and its effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Not that I really go along with all of what Jim says there but, still, I'd recommend gold to anyone - silver as a more speculative play. So, maybe think to balance your G & S buys accordingly. Yes, the silver price is really wild. I regard gold as security and silver as a more speculative play. However, the gold/silver ratio at about 80 now is unusually high making silver look cheap relative to gold. I have high hopes for silver in the longer run, but who knows?. I have quite a lot of gold and little silver. I'm taking advantage of cheap-looking silver to build a position. I can handle it if silver drops from here. I expect silver to behave like the industrial metal which it is, so global recession would tend to hold its price down. However, later I hope the gold/silver ratio will drop, maybe as it behaves more as an investment metal rather than purely industrial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 45% physical silver. That's a lot. I'd recommend listening to some Bob Hoye. Silver may not be the done deal people think it is. I have a huge holding bought in 05-06 . It is a source of immense frustration to me. I was under the impression Bob sees a retracement on silver for the short term, to around 50:1, with a general retracement in the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I was under the impression Bob sees a retracement on silver for the short term, to around 50:1, with a general retracement in the markets. Yes, Bob Hoye is now (has been for a few weeks) saying silver/silver stocks look good - don't think I've seen mention of it getting back to 50:1 though. ('Phew' from me if it does!) The G&S ratio seems to often be used as a strong indicator for market actions. Gold Sector Update - Bob Hoye - November 28, 2008: http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=8063 OUTLOOK FOR GOLD STOCKS • Gold shares had been likely to decline as part of the typical fall crash, which would likely clear around mid November, and our advice since late October has been to cover shorts in silver stocks and to get long the gold sector. • A new bull market for gold shares has been expected to start in November and run for a few years. • This has been expected to encompass the whole gold sector, including exploration stocks. • Based upon previous post-bubble contractions, this could run for around 20 years. Of course, the usual business cycle would prevail, with the gold sector doing well on the recessions. GOLD/SILVER RATIO • Beyond being something to trade, the gold/silver ratio has been a reliable indicator of credit conditions. It declines during a boom and does its greatest service when it typically signals the contraction by increasing. The key move in 2008 occurred with the turn up in May from 46. This was with the reversal in the credit markets and the technical break out at 54 in August anticipated the fall disaster. Often during the more acute phase of a panic, silver can dramatically plunge relative to gold. • With the break above 54 our target on the full contraction became around 100. That level for the ratio was reached with the banking crisis that ended in late 1990, when the last of the 1980 adventures in crude, gold, silver and real estate were finally written off. • From a high close of 84 on October 28 with that panic the ratio declined to 71 with the stock market rebound to November 5. The next rise with the next panic was to 83.5 on Friday, November 21, and the ratio can decline for a few months as the financial markets recover in the first quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 45% physical silver. That's a lot. I'd recommend listening to some Bob Hoye. Silver may not be the done deal people think it is. I have a huge holding bought in 05-06 . It is a source of immense frustration to me. This makes sense to me. Thinking of my investments as a series of concentric circles or a chess board, I consider gold bullion as my safest core position/base currency [the king]. Next ring out is silver bullion [queen]... one beyond that producing miners [rooks] etc. FWIW I bought silver bullion at around $10 and it is something like 15% of my bullion position. Slightly more speculative but could pay off handsomely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Here's a response from James Turk, Re: setting up a company goldmoney account. I had questioned him on the $500,000 minimum. I just had a response from their Support department and they confirmed that companies need $500,000 as a minimum deposit. That's 600 ounces and would make it beneficial for a company of that size to buy direct from ViaMat and have it stored there as well. Either someone in GoldMoney is being silly and forgetting about all of the small and medium companies that would use their product and do not have savings of $500,000 or the number of companies looking for a gold account has flooded their buying power in the market place as comapnies would generally have greater savings than the average person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I can't find much written about gold Mexican Libertads, has anyone bought them from CoinInvestDirect? They're currently the lowest premium 1oz coin on offer there. I'm just wondering how they look and feel since the premiums are 9%ish and comparable phils, maples or nuggets are selling around 11-12% over spot. If they're nice I'll buy some. Libertads are not a very common coin in Europe, if you want a pic of a one take a look here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Libertads are not a very common coin in Europe, if you want a pic of a one take a look here Yes, I looked at those - but reckon it's better going for coins that are very well/easily recognised - even if they cost a bit more. Well, that's my final buy into gold bullion... Top up at GM and a few Krugers. Watch out below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
signofthetimes Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I can't find much written about gold Mexican Libertads, has anyone bought them from CoinInvestDirect? They're currently the lowest premium 1oz coin on offer there. I'm just wondering how they look and feel since the premiums are 9%ish and comparable phils, maples or nuggets are selling around 11-12% over spot. If they're nice I'll buy some. I bought quite a few Libertads from CID recently, nice looking coin imo, much nicer than a krug! remember an ounce is an ounce..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgleeson Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Long term manipilation of gold. http://www.sprott.com/pdf/not_free_not_fair.pdf Old report but very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmaupoil Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I bought quite a few Libertads from CID recently, nice looking coin imo, much nicer than a krug! remember an ounce is an ounce..... Then why don't you go for that... http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=12&id=129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Then why don't you go for that... http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=12&id=129 A one ounce Philharmoniker is a few pounds cheaper than that one ounce bar: http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=156 (as I write at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmaupoil Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 A one ounce Philharmoniker is a few pounds cheaper than that one ounce bar: http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=156 (as I write at least). Yep my mistake. This is quite surprising though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Time for the rockets ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 Time for the rockets ???? Nice jump up to 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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