Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I think youve draw the line wrong.

Longer term charts trump shorter term ones in ascertaining longer term direction

 

Here's a longer one, we are at a decisive point, it will be interesting to see what happens this week. Ker's $600 maybe?

 

goldwedge2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

Ive do not have any experience with shares so I would appreciate the veiws of others. Does anyone know if any of these companies are dogs?

...

 

I hope not. I think I have all of them. I’ll check tonight and confirm. I bought Gold Funds (Investec, Black Rock and Ruffer) to give me a load of exposure to gold miners without paying lots of fees.

 

You’ll pay £12.50 for each one you buy at Selftrade

 

EDIT: Anyone got Investec Global Gold fund? They’ve made some changes to the Objectives.

 

I’ve pasted them in a new thread here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5785

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One possible count, maybe slightly untidy with waves iv and i crossing a little, but may be looking at a near term corrective phase.

 

Upper trendline resistance dates back to the peak in March '08, would be a positive if that resistance was broken prior to any corrective phase

 

Possible wave v of 5 to come to break that trendline.

 

 

 

 

GoldDaily---27-01.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(I wonder what the Gold Threaders think of this - from the DrB Diary):

 

But BE CAREFUL WITH GOLD, as there is a real chance the rally could fizzle out right here !

 

00bitmap2lilw1.gif

 

I want to see it punch through that trendline. I may sell more today now that I have spotted this.

A pause, a slight pullback, and then a punch thru would be ideal. Meantime, I am feeling that the values

offered on the Oil side may be a better Buy or Hold right now.

 

THAT GOLD MOVE UP is weakened by three gaps, since the motive force seems for Gold's move has

been coming outside NY trading hours. I presume it is people fleeing a weak Sterling and weak Euro.

 

Right now, I see GBP rallying to $1.42 or better, and so Gold may be due a pause - or worse !

 

 

FWIW I'm going to stick my neck out and agree. I think gold's about to take a monster hit. The way it broke $900 wasn't right - no follow through and a weird hover. That looks like weak longs being given the 'opportunity' to get sucked in to me.

 

I haven't sold any of my Xmas mining purchases, but I'm certainly not buying this particular rally. I'll reconsider if we get some sustained volume above $900, otherwise back down we go - and there's a long way to fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

001pb3.jpg

that high has a number of trends associated with it

 

I fear we will see a pullback, and so I will do some selling today, if I see the right prices.

But if I am wrong, and it punches thru, they a quick move to $1,000 is very possible.

As always, volume will be a critical factor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's a longer one, we are at a decisive point, it will be interesting to see what happens this week. Ker's $600 maybe?

 

goldwedge2.jpg

 

Theres allot of optimism about gold over the comming months.

 

Gold Projected to Rise in Most Bullish Survey Results on Record

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=australia

 

Why would investors sell their gold and miss out on a nice move up? Wouldn't they buy gold to get on the gold rally and by doing so add to the up move?

 

Also the fundamentals have never been better what with the QE and bank bailout Mk2, Britain bust etc.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that the point & figure charts are now predicting bullish price objectives of gold $1060 & Silver $18.50

 

Here's a quote from Trader Dan (jsmineset.com) on P&F charts

 

I sometimes wonder if anyone even uses those things anymore since they were primarily trend identifying charts and today’s crowd of money throwers are momentum oriented.

 

PFGold.png

 

PFSILVER.png

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Twenty-eight of 31 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Mumbai to Chicago on Jan. 22 and Jan. 23 advised buying the metal"

 

Why would investors sell their gold and miss out on a nice move up?

Wouldn't they buy gold to get on the gold rally and by doing so add to the up move?

??

You've got it backwards, I reckon.

 

Why would they wait to buy, if they have already turned bullish?

In other words, who are they going to sell to, if everyone is bullish already?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DrBubb,

 

What are your thoughts on the merits of Point & Figure charts?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I fear we will see a pullback, and so I will do some selling today, if I see the right prices.

But if I am wrong, and it punches thru, they a quick move to $1,000 is very possible.

As always, volume will be a critical factor.

 

Balls... I'm getting mixed opinion from those wiser then me! Captain Hook is bullish for bullion and stocks over at treasurechestsinfo.com (can't post, I'm afraid - as subsciber only).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just been watching Bloomberg.

 

They just had John Murphy, chief TA, from stockcharts.com on.

 

When asked what he thought investors should invest in 2009, he said "It's a very easy question - GOLD".

 

He thinks it will end the year at $1000 eventually. He likes Gold ETF's.

 

Also discussed that gold acts as hedge against inflation AND deflation (used 1929-1932 as example).

 

Gold acts a leading indicator for other commodites like oil, etc.

 

Was just getting to the meat of why he thinks so, when Bloomberg cut to Tim Geitner's replacement at NY FED.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thomas J. Bowley | Invested Central

IS THE DOLLAR TOPPING?

 

An interesting result of the government bailout of the financials and automakers, along with the huge economic stimulus package will be the long-term impact on the U.S. dollar. Can the dollar maintain its relative value as interest rates fall and deficits mount? Let's take a look at a few charts regarding the dollar and how we can profit if the dollar does plunge. First, let's take a look at the long-term picture of the dollar:

 

As you can see, the long-term trend in the dollar is down. Unless the dollar can pierce through the 92-93 area, the intermediate-term trend is down as well. Only the near-term chart shows any positive action on the dollar. And that rally is suspect technically as shown below:

 

A bearish head and shoulders pattern formed from October through December and broke down below the neckline with force. Should the dollar fail to navigate the near-term resistance (retest of neckline) and the longer-term trend resumes to the downside, gold is likely to be a primary beneficiary. Gold is one commodity whose long-term uptrend remains intact because of the long-term downtrend in the dollar. Take a glimpse at the long-term chart on gold:

 

The dollar and gold have an inverse relationship that's quite evident when you compare the two charts. During periods of dollar strength, gold weakens. However, dollar weakness leads to gold strength. So the question remains: What happens to the dollar as a result of the massive government bailout and the economic stimulus package? Answer that question correctly and you profit. It's as simple as that.

 

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/20090118/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DrBubb,

What are your thoughts on the merits of Point & Figure charts?

They seem to work for some.

But I dont know enough...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They seem to work for some.

But I dont know enough...

Understanding Point & Figure Charts

 

Point & Figure charts consist of columns of X's and O's that represent filtered price movements over time. Their distinctive look may be alien at first to people who are more familiar with traditional price bar charts but once people learn the basics of P&F charts they usually become hooked.

 

There are several advantages to using P&F charts instead of the more traditional bar or candlestick charts. P&F charts automatically

 

Eliminate the insignificant price movements that often make bar charts appear 'noisy,'

 

Remove the often misleading effects of time from the analysis process,

 

Make recognizing support/resistance levels much easier,

 

Make trend line recognition a 'no-brainer',

 

Help you stay focused on the important long-term price developments,

 

Point and Figure Price Objectives

 

A Point and Figure Price Objective is the price that a stock should reach based on recent P&F chart signals.

 

Important: Price objectives should not be used as the sole reason for buying or selling a stock - it is just a guide based on what the current P&F chart is saying. Stocks frequently move past the price objective and just as frequently reverse before getting to the price objective. The best way to use a price objective is as a cautionary sign - if prices get to the price objective, it might be prudent to monitor the stock more closely and move stops closer in case the move is done.

 

StockCharts.com supports two different techniques for calculating P&F price objectives - the Breakout method and the Reversal method. By default, the Breakout method is used.

 

Both techniques rely on two important concepts - Bullish alert columns and Bearish alert columns.

 

A bullish alert column is any column of X's on a P&F chart where the highest X begins above the top of the previous column of X's on that same chart.

 

Similarly, a bearish alert column is any column of O's where the lowest O is below the bottom of the previous column of O's.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be a renewed interest in TA recently, has something provoked this? Can it be trusted in contrast to following the fundamentals?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They seem to work for some.

But I dont know enough...

 

I am a big fan of pnf charts. They have saved my asre from making huge losses in the past. (i was in a company share scheme and was loyal to a fault - i learned the hard way never to fall in love with a job or a stock.)

 

For me they take away all the noise and I can focus on long term trends.

 

However, I have been looking at other TA currency charts that cgnao does/gives, and I can also see value in those charts especially when comparing one currency with another.

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Could somebody explain what the O's and X's mean, and how they are generated?

They always look like a whacky game of connect4 to me :)

ABB

 

Click this link for a good explantion

 

Understanding Point & Figure Charts

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Theres allot of optimism about gold over the comming months.

 

Gold Projected to Rise in Most Bullish Survey Results on Record

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=australia

 

Why would investors sell their gold and miss out on a nice move up? Wouldn't they buy gold to get on the gold rally and by doing so add to the up move?

 

Also the fundamentals have never been better what with the QE and bank bailout Mk2, Britain bust etc.

 

The herd thinks its time to buy gold - contrarian thinkers do the opposite. I have been analysing gold far more precisely because media, experts, "advise" on buying gold now and that this is THE year for gold. Its getting close to "dumb money" time IMO, so I think a lot of people will be hurt.

I'd like to be wrong though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The herd thinks its time to buy gold - contrarian thinkers do the opposite. I have been analysing gold far more precisely because media, experts, "advise" on buying gold now and that this is THE year for gold. Its getting close to "dumb money" time IMO, so I think a lot of people will be hurt.

I'd like to be wrong though.

 

The herd is hardly buying gold at the moment, as they have been sold deflation by the central banks, while they print like mad. The herds are currently buying government treasuries which is why the yield has almost gone to zero.

 

Contrarian thinkers do not follow the government line. Hardly a shoe shine boy moment quoting gold analysts off bloomberg.

 

Sure you are not Ker under a different username. This site must be getting good, we are getting a lot more "government shill" action. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The herd thinks its time to buy gold - contrarian thinkers do the opposite. I have been analysing gold far more precisely because media, experts, "advise" on buying gold now and that this is THE year for gold. Its getting close to "dumb money" time IMO, so I think a lot of people will be hurt.

I'd like to be wrong though.

I think when the herd buys gold the price goes to the moon. Only a minority are buying gold and because that minority are getting slightly bigger, the bullion dealers and producers cant keep up. Dumb money is clearly fiat, sterling for example, not gold which is real money. But I take your point though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×