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I think when the herd buys gold the price goes to the moon. Only a minority are buying gold and because that minority are getting slightly bigger, the bullion dealers and producers cant keep up. Dumb money is clearly fiat, sterling for example, not gold which is real money. But I take your point though.

Yes. Prices would be in the 5 figures if this was the case.

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The herd is hardly buying gold at the moment, as they have been sold deflation by the central banks, while they print like mad. The herds are currently buying government treasuries which is why the yield has almost gone to zero.

 

Contrarian thinkers do not follow the government line. Hardly a shoe shine boy moment quoting gold analysts off bloomberg.

 

Sure you are not Ker under a different username. This site must be getting good, we are getting a lot more "government shill" action. :lol:

 

 

What are you talking about shoe shine and bloomberg?

 

I think there are just too many experts, pundits, fund managers, and magazines, newspapers etc "talking" about the rising POG.

When that happens I get concerned, that's all.

 

 

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...

I think there are just too many experts, pundits, fund managers, and magazines, newspapers etc "talking" about the rising POG.

When that happens I get concerned, that's all.

:) Wait for the 60 pages gold supplements in your local newspaper first.

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I think when the herd buys gold the price goes to the moon. Only a minority are buying gold and because that minority are getting slightly bigger, the bullion dealers and producers cant keep up. Dumb money is clearly fiat, sterling for example, not gold which is real money. But I take your point though.

 

Has anyone compared the Volumes in the mid 1970s to now?

 

Secondly...

 

I may not have the evidence so could you please provide it to suggest the volumes are low now compared to the last 10 years? At what point does a minority cease to be a minority? How do you quantify the judgement - volumes or something else? Put it this way I know a lot more retail investors that are in PMs than 6 months ago. Now if they are behind the institutions and funds then is there not already decent investment?

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Has anyone compared the Volumes in the mid 1970s to now?

 

Secondly...

 

I may not have the evidence so could you please provide it to suggest the volumes are low now compared to the last 10 years? At what point does a minority cease to be a minority? How do you quantify the judgement - volumes or something else? Put it this way I know a lot more retail investors that are in PMs than 6 months ago. Now if they are behind the institutions and funds then is there not already decent investment?

 

The deleveraging that has been going on recently was all the hedge funds and institutions selling everything to meet redemptions. That hardly signals the top is in.

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The deleveraging that has been going on recently was all the hedge funds and institutions selling everything to meet redemptions. That hardly signals the top is in.

 

You quoted my post but didn't refer to the volumes questions. Do you know?

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... Put it this way I know a lot more retail investors that are in PMs than 6 months ago....

Let's analyze this.

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...ticle661055.ece

Household wealth in 2000 was valued at $125 trillion, equivalent to about three times total global production, or $20,500 a person, according to The World Distribution of Household Wealth report.

5% of this is $6.25 trillion. At $900/oz this could buy 6.9 billion ounces or 216,000 tonnes. BUT:

http://www.galmarley.com/framesets/fs_comm...ntials_faqs.htm

In the world there are currently somewhere between 120,000 and 140,000 tonnes of gold ‘above ground’.

In other words, a very modest 5% of the world's wealth back in 2000 would buy almost double the amount of all gold that has ever been mined at today's prices.

This clearly means that essentially NO ONE is interested in gold at the moment (volume-wise).

 

Or, expressed differently, a very small percentage of the worlds wealth moving into gold would propel the price to incredible levels. We might live to see it. ;)

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You quoted my post but didn't refer to the volumes questions. Do you know?

As my post above shows, this is totally irrelevant.

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No point in having a debate then if it is irrelevant ;)

On a greater scale irrelevant. This doesn't mean that we don't want to hear about the volumes if someone knows. :)

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You quoted my post but didn't refer to the volumes questions. Do you know?

 

On a greater scale irrelevant. This doesn't mean that we don't want to hear about the volumes if someone knows. :)

 

There is a volume measure in these stats going back to 1996. I’m not sure what they mean. Anyone know?

 

http://www.lbma.org.uk/stats/clearing

 

EDIT: Clearing

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2009/01/londo...n-clearing.html

http://www.lse.co.uk/financeglossary.asp?s...nition=clearing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearing_(finance)

 

EDIT2 I think I understand now. 'Clearing' is volume traded. When the volume (supply) goes down, the price goes up (?)

 

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[There are several advantages to using P&F charts instead of the more traditional bar or candlestick charts. P&F charts automatically

 

Eliminate the insignificant price movements that often make bar charts appear 'noisy,'

 

Remove the often misleading effects of time from the analysis process,

 

Make recognizing support/resistance levels much easier,

 

Make trend line recognition a 'no-brainer',

 

Help you stay focused on the important long-term price developments,

 

Point and Figure Price Objectives

 

A Point and Figure Price Objective is the price that a stock should reach based on recent P&F chart signals.

 

Important: Price objectives should not be used as the sole reason for buying or selling a stock - it is just a guide based on what the current P&F chart is saying. Stocks frequently move past the price objective and just as frequently reverse before getting to the price objective. The best way to use a price objective is as a cautionary sign - if prices get to the price objective, it might be prudent to monitor the stock more closely and move stops closer in case the move is done.

 

Silly! Why ELIMINATE the price volume relationship and ignore moving averages?

Why not take out every Friday's trading, or something??

I think it is ridiculous, that's why I ahvent bothered with P&F

 

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"Headed Lower" says Tom Obrien, with reference to Gold and Gold shares.

 

He also thinks the larger market will go down too. He says that we have simply not had enough volume

to keep the market going, since it came off Monday's potential turn point.

 

Here's a stock chart that looks bearish to me:

 

QQQ (etf for Nasdaq-100) ... update

bigyn7.gif

 

He's see the Dow ( INDU ) and S&P500 ( SPY ) "getting back into (last year's) lows"

 

He's also bearish on Oil ( USO , OILB.L ) and Oil stocks ( XLE , OIH )

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Silly! Why ELIMINATE the price volume relationship and ignore moving averages?

Why not take out every Friday's trading, or something??

I think it is ridiculous, that's why I ahvent bothered with P&F

 

I am not saying that one replaces the other, just that P & F has it uses.

 

I think it is worth looking at for trend confirmation purposes.

 

 

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On the subject of mainstream articles getting more common and more bullish:

 

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-bus...2000/article.do

 

Stand by for the biggest gold rush since the Klondike. The price of the precious metal is set to soar as investors becoming increasingly gloomy about the global economy.

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CNBC=ShoeshineboyTV.

Yes they keep talking about gold - clear sign

that it is about to go down IMO.

IIRC January is a seasonal highpoint for gold (Wedding season + Chinese New Year).

ABB

 

Taken from Trader Dan's notes on Monday on jsmineset.com

 

I found the remarks by one of the investment houses that gold was undergoing a period of “irrational exuberance” almost laughable to read. People actually pay good money to read such reports which I find a tragic waste of wealth. The gist of the notion set forth in the report was that since there is no inflation and that gold performs poorly during periods of recessionary environments, gold buying has no fundamental underpinnings. I had to wonder if the person who wrote it was just out of business graduate school since it is obvious they have not a clue as to what gold actually is. For some reason there remains this almost fog-like obstruction that exists in the minds of so many, particularly the younger folks working in investment circles, that prevents them from recognizing that gold is a currency, not a commodity. When it is viewed as a commodity, of course its price will decline during periods in which jewelry or even industrial demand is waning. However, and this is the key, when a crisis of confidence in paper currencies exists, then gold resumes its historic, time-tested role of being a store of value and investors seek it out to preserve that which they have labored so diligently to acquire. After all, if Central Bankers are diligently at work seeking to undermine any “value” that might or might not exist in their paper by debauching it as quickly as they can, where else can one put their wealth if not into something tangible that is a perceived store of value. Try telling the good folk of Britain who are watching their once proud currency disappearing that gold is experiencing irrational exuberance. The only thing irrational that I see is the actions of the Central Banks and the governments who continue to manufacture money faster than a flock of hungry wild geese can pick clean a rice field.

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Anybody catch this snippet from seekingalpha in their 'Preview from Europe' feature

 

www.seekingalpha.com/article/116998-preview-from-europe-market-up-again-despite-data?source=headline1

 

# Germany is thinking about raiding the gold reserves of the Bundesbank to finance their get out of economic jail card. Germany currently holds the 2nd largest amount of gold reserves of any central bank, valued at €75bn.

 

This would surely have an adverse affect on the POG.....if they were to follow through.

 

then I find this article, that says the finance minister warning against any seeling

 

www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/2009/01/28/gold-reserves-should-not-be-sold-by-german-central-bank-german-finance-minister/

 

 

 

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£ has rallied against $ from under 1.36 to near 1.44 over last 3 days

 

 

Thought it was due a bounce. :mellow:

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Thought it was due a bounce. :mellow:

I cant see it lasting long what with the latest news on the state of UK economy from the IMF

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I cant see it lasting long what with the latest news on the state of UK economy from the IMF

 

 

 

Maybe time to purchase. :rolleyes:

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