GOLD

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

Could they fool the people for a second time ?? I cant see people parting with physical under any threat, when history shows that it will be revalued upwards in the future, But yes the ETF sell off would be brutal

 

best have a means to get cash should such a etf sell off prove brutal to the physical price - but in a way this happened last year to a lesser extent where the price of physical adjusted itself away from the paper price

[Pluto]

best have a means to get cash should such a etf sell off prove brutal to the physical price - but in a way this happened last year to a lesser extent where the price of physical adjusted itself away from the paper price

 

The physical spread price of coins is herding more people into ETFs thinking they are getting a deal by not paying commissions or excessive spreads. Except one is gold and the other a wall street abortion.

[ziknik]

The physical spread price of coins is herding more people into ETFs thinking they are getting a deal by not paying commissions or excessive spreads. Except one is gold and the other a wall street abortion.

 

What do you think of BullionVault / Goldmoney?

 

I’m planning to sell a load of silver coins and move the money in to GM silver. I don’t feel comfortable with the amount of silver I have at the moment. I’ve moved a load to my mum’s house for safety but I still want to offload some coins.

 

[romans holiday]

best have a means to get cash should such a etf sell off prove brutal to the physical price - but in a way this happened last year to a lesser extent where the price of physical adjusted itself away from the paper price

Or to have cash on hand and be able to buy physical when/if the crash happens.

[Pluto]

What do you think of BullionVault / Goldmoney?

 

I’m planning to sell a load of silver coins and move the money in to GM silver. I don’t feel comfortable with the amount of silver I have at the moment. I’ve moved a load to my mum’s house for safety but I still want to offload some coins.

 

What I think of Goldmoney or Bullionvault is irrelevant. It is the government that you have to worry about and what they are going to do that is the issue. These institutions have to operate within the laws that govern them.

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

Or to have cash and be able to buy physical when/if the crash happens.

 

that is what i was eluding to

[Catflap]

We are nowhere near the bottom in stocks. The Nikkei 225 went from 48,000 to 7,800 and is still dropping. Stocks dropped 90% during the last depression. Sure you can trade this market and make some lolly, but you have to be nimble as the market could collapse at any time. During the tech collapse many were spouting the same claptrap as you only to be completely wiped out.

 

The reason for Japans deflation are many, not least it's demographics:

 

Japan’s Slow-Motion Demographic Catastrophe

 

Japan repeats its mistakes

 

 

Yes, the Dow dropped 89% from the autumn of 1929 to the summer of 1932 but unfortunately you are looking at the wrong part of the cycle. 1929 was the peak in p/e valuations and the Dow back then was full of the new technology stocks of the day just in the same way that 2000 was also the peak in p/e valuations and the Nasdaq this time was where most of the new technology stocks were listed, ie. dot.com

 

The Nasdaq fell 73% from the spring of 2000 to the autumn of 2002 - a similar large crash over almost exactly the same time frame as before. Had Alan Greenspan not done what he did then I'm sure the Nasdaq fall would have approached the 89% fall on the Dow. If you look at the long wave of the Dow from 1929 to 1938 (9 years) and compare it with the long wave of the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2009 (9 years) you will see the same patterns - we are in a period that is comparable to 1938 and not the early 1930's.

 

Would you bet against Warren Buffet and Anthony Bolton being wrong?

 

 

 

[Pluto]

The reason for Japans deflation are many, not least it's demographics:

 

Japan’s Slow-Motion Demographic Catastrophe

 

Japan repeats its mistakes

 

 

Yes, the Dow dropped 89% from the autumn of 1929 to the summer of 1932 but unfortunately you are looking at the wrong part of the cycle. 1929 was the peak in p/e valuations and the Dow back then was full of the new technology stocks of the day just in the same way that 2000 was also the peak in p/e valuations and the Nasdaq this time was where most of the new technology stocks were listed, ie. dot.com

 

The Nasdaq fell 73% from the spring of 2000 to the autumn of 2002 - a similar large crash over almost exactly the same time frame as before. Had Alan Greenspan not done what he did then I'm sure the Nasdaq fall would have approached the 89% fall on the Dow. If you look at the long wave of the Dow from 1929 to 1938 (9 years) and compare it with the long wave of the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2009 (9 years) you will see the same patterns - we are in a period that is comparable to 1938 and not the early 1930's.

 

Would you bet against Warren Buffet and Anthony Bolton being wrong?

 

Yes, Warren Buffet is a shyster and Bolton is a fool.

 

For the stock market to go up there has to be earnings from somewhere. I can't see earnings coming from anywhere. We spent tomorrows earnings yesterday. It is time to payback debts.

[electroweak]

Pluto, presumably if the US/UK Govt started rumours about confiscation, cratering the POG due to a wave of ETF selling, who in their right minds would be selling their physical? ergo; the price of physical would literally be on the moon, no?

I can see this causing the disconnect between physical and paper by orders of magnitude.

If you can see through the paper folly price, I don't think you have anything to worry about IMO.

[grumpy-old-man]

Is there any sign of the bad news slowing up? I would really appreciate a pull back as I'd like to load up.

 

Anyone see a pullback on the horizon. The last time I bought at $900 it dipped over $100 a week later , just as well sterling went scuba diving shortly afterwards.

 

Ker should be able to help you on this with a few charts'n'stuff.

[grumpy-old-man]

We are nowhere near the bottom in stocks. The Nikkei 225 went from 48,000 to 7,800 and is still dropping. Stocks dropped 90% during the last depression. Sure you can trade this market and make some lolly, but you have to be nimble as the market could collapse at any time. During the tech collapse many were spouting the same claptrap as you only to be completely wiped out.

 

Pluto, do you hire yourself out for wedding speeches ?

 

ps - love the new avatar.

[Pixel8r]

I've always been confused by pictures like this. Light is refracted at the angle of incidence (42 degrees) and so technically you should always apear to be at the centre of a rainbow, as you chase the end it appears to move away from you.

 

Quite simple really it's a photoshop plugin filter called rainbow.

 

 

[Pluto]

Pluto, presumably if the US/UK Govt started rumours about confiscation, cratering the POG due to a wave of ETF selling, who in their right minds would be selling their physical? ergo; the price of physical would literally be on the moon, no?

I can see this causing the disconnect between physical and paper by orders of magnitude.

If you can see through the paper folly price, I don't think you have anything to worry about IMO.

 

I think initially the price of all gold will decline because of the panic. However, as the dust settles the price of real gold should come back.

 

I am not overly worried, I was just making the point that physical gold and other gold in someone else's possession is not the same thing.

[Catflap]

Yes, Warren Buffet is a shyster and Bolton is a fool.

 

For the stock market to go up there has to be earnings from somewhere. I can't see earnings coming from anywhere. We spent tomorrows earnings yesterday. It is time to payback debts.

 

General stockmarket valuations will be at their very lowest at the end of the commodity boom just like they were in 1982, so this could be around 2017 perhaps. It's a gradual process going from a high valuation peak as in 2000 to low valuation bottom in a few years time - in between this you get a global recession where stocks sell off in a panic as in 1937-38, 1973-74 and today's 2008-09 period.

 

Earnings don't necessarily have to come from somewhere for stocks to rise - stockmarkets have been cut nearly in half but the earnings havn't been cut in half. Low interest rates will ultimately force people back into the stockmarket looking for better yields than holding cash and a wall of money that is currently hiding in US treasury bonds and gold will also come back into equities for a better return - this will all happen once volatility comes back to normal levels.

 

Besides, there are too many commodity stocks at already depressed valuations that makes them worth buying and these will be what lead the main indexes higher in the short term since we are in a secular bull market in commodities.

[Pixel8r]

What I think of Goldmoney or Bullionvault is irrelevant. It is the government that you have to worry about and what they are going to do that is the issue. These institutions have to operate within the laws that govern them.

 

Here is an old email from Jim Turk which seems relevant to the above.

 

Regarding the impact on GoldMoney, I will note that we operate in the British Channel Islands. We purposefully chose that country because it operates under the rule of law, rather than the dictate of politicians. This policy has made the Channel Islands one of the world's leading financial centers. So even if gold ownership is declared illegal in Germany, as the email suggests, it is highly unlikely to be declared illegal in the Channel Islands.

 

 

[Pluto]

General stockmarket valuations will be at their very lowest at the end of the commodity boom just like they were in 1982, so this could be around 2017 perhaps. It's a gradual process going from a high valuation peak as in 2000 to low valuation bottom in a few years time - in between this you get a global recession where stocks sell off in a panic as in 1937-38, 1973-74 and today's 2008-09 period.

 

Earnings don't necessarily have to come from somewhere for stocks to rise - stockmarkets have been cut nearly in half but the earnings havn't been cut in half. Low interest rates will ultimately force people back into the stockmarket looking for better yields than holding cash and a wall of money that is currently hiding in US treasury bonds and gold will also come back into equities for a better return - this will all happen once volatility comes back to normal levels.

 

Besides, there are too many commodity stocks at already depressed valuations that makes them worth buying and these will be what lead the main indexes higher in the short term since we are in a secular bull market in commodities.

 

People are more worried about the return of their money than on profiting from it.

 

As I said before, you can make some lolly by trading this market, but we are going lower if not flat out collapse. The earnings are collapsing into losses. I have some shorts, so my money is where my mouth is. And by the way I shorted GE at 23 while Warren "shyster" Buffet was buying, so yes I do go against him. All I want now is my Apple short to come into the money as that should fall by 50% also.

[Pluto]

Here is an old email from Jim Turk which seems relevant to the above.

 

The same was said about Switzerland until recently.

 

http://abajournal.com/news/ubs_gave_feds_i..._bank_accounts/

 

"U.S. authorities have requested data from UBS on U.S. onshore clients," a spokesman for the Switzerland-based bank tells Reuters. "UBS must comply with that request for information located in the United States."

However, the bank hasn't provided data about secret bank accounts in Switzerland that the U.S. Department of Justice also is seeking, according to the news agency. Reuters reports that UBS and the Swiss Finance Ministry, which would have to approve any such data transfer, are still assessing the DOJ's effort to obtain this "offshore" banking information.

[Pluto]

Pluto, do you hire yourself out for wedding speeches ?

 

ps - love the new avatar.

 

No one wants to hear what I have to say in person. It is only on the internet under the disguise of a fiction cartoon character that I find folk wanting to listen to my ramblings.

[sbn]

Hello campers

 

I just wanted to say I'm still here and I think I might be posting a bit more in future. I still hang around on the HPC.co.uk which I'm sorry to say have not reversed their ridiculous moderation policy regarding you guys and the gold thread. I am also sorry to report that the quality of the posts has noticable slipped in recent months although I must admit that it is very interesting to hear the opinions of the new members.

 

I regularly beg for them to invite GF and CGNAO back, but I fear that it has been so long that the majority of the membership would not ever have known them.

 

Be thankful GEI members - you have creamed the crop of what used to be a VERY good forum.

[romans holiday]

that is what i was eluding to

opps... the allusion eluded me.

 

but with you 100% on buying the crash [if it comes].

[electroweak]

Hello campers

 

I just wanted to say I'm still here and I think I might be posting a bit more in future. I still hang around on the HPC.co.uk which I'm sorry to say have not reversed their ridiculous moderation policy regarding you guys and the gold thread. I am also sorry to report that the quality of the posts has noticable slipped in recent months although I must admit that it is very interesting to hear the opinions of the new members.

 

I regularly beg for them to invite GF and CGNAO back, but I fear that it has been so long that the majority of the membership would not ever have known them.

 

Be thankful GEI members - you have creamed the crop of what used to be a VERY good forum.

Agreed, 100%. I also look over at HPC, but as I cant post there it just annoys me when people are ignorant/arrogant/...

The people over there remind me of a class without a teacher, re-enforcing all their own misunderstandings. Lord of the flies style!

I like it here at GEI. v. friendly, and so much to learn from others informed opinions.

[warpig]

I don't want to disrupt the flow of conversation, but I couldn't help but comment. In this case you're probably right, but I've seen one myself in a field next to the road I was driving on. I never understood how it could be. Maybe it's the LSD plugin?

 

Quite simple really it's a photoshop plugin filter called rainbow.

[azazel]

We are nowhere near the bottom in stocks. The Nikkei 225 went from 48,000 to 7,800 and is still dropping. Stocks dropped 90% during the last depression. Sure you can trade this market and make some lolly, but you have to be nimble as the market could collapse at any time. During the tech collapse many were spouting the same claptrap as you only to be completely wiped out.

His name is Catflap, not claptrap :lol: :lol: :lol:

[marceau]

Yes, Warren Buffet is a shyster and Bolton is a fool.

 

For the stock market to go up there has to be earnings from somewhere. I can't see earnings coming from anywhere. We spent tomorrows earnings yesterday. It is time to payback debts.

 

 

This is it, this is exactly it, where is the growth? Without growth dividends will shrink. Without growth, even a p/e of 2 is too high! Where will companies make their money?

 

I can't understand why people don't see this. All of the growth for the last decade was paid for by borrowed money, as Pluto says, tomorrow's earnings spent yesterday. That could mean almost a decade without growth before we take into account the effects of the recession.

 

The only sectors with a hope of growth are commodities and new tech/innovations (and even they will struggle). The rest is, quite simply, fcuked for a generation (should they survive at all).

 

The only way these indices will go up long term is Zimbabwe-style, in which case I'd far rather be holding gold than share certificates.

[ecoface]

ETFs are another abortion born by wall street. They are tomorrows CDOs, MBSs and SIVs, and yesterdays MFs.

 

That own c 1000 tonnes of gold - not to be ignored perhaps