Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I don't think I've ever seen the BV Market Board so animated. Not tempted to sell anything though. I'm definitely in buy and hold camp for the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't think I've ever seen the BV Market Board so animated. Not tempted to sell anything though. I'm definitely in buy and hold camp for the moment.

I thought that too.

 

I just dumped some BV and bought some physical bars.

 

I've got an itch telling me we are going through the 1000USD before very long.

 

I've got another itch telling me the opposite.

 

Oh, which itch do I stratch !

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I thought that too.

 

I just dumped some BV and bought some physical bars.

 

I've got an itch telling me we are going through the 1000USD before very long.

 

I've got another itch telling me the opposite.

 

Oh, which itch do I stratch !

 

 

+1 here

 

I ummed and ahhed over opening a large position at $915. Wish I had now. Also wanted to top up my GM acct but am a bit wary now because I always try to buy on dips.

 

Can't help thinking that we'll see $1000 again before feb is out. Maybe Au<$950 is history - god knows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Maybe Au<$950 is history.

That's what I said in July. :o

 

I guess it only gets more likely over time, but like you said, who knows?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It takes less than 8 ounces to buy the Dow Jones now.

 

When gold was over $1000 in March the Dow was still around $12000.

I've never understood that calculation. What does it mean?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've never understood that calculation. What does it mean?

 

Divide the Dow price by the price of gold.

 

Currently 7,580 / 972 = 7.8

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold isn't too shabby today. Not like the Dow and Euro, both staring down into the abyss, with poodle sterling not too far behind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've never understood that calculation. What does it mean?

 

Its a good measure of value, because it takes the fiat paper out of the equation. It shows how despite new nominal all time dollar highs for the dow the price of stocks against gold has been falling since 2000. The gold/oil ratio is another useful stat.

 

In 2000 it took 44 ounces to buy the dow, in 2007 when the dow was at its nominal peak the ratio was something like 20-1 and at the beginning of 2008 it took 15 ounces to buy the dow. I think it was 10 - 1 at the start of 2009.

 

Some people predict the dow will be worth one ounce of gold before this is through, I would be happy to buy it for two.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry, what I meant was where did the $12K for the dow come from?

 

The dow was $12-12,500 in March 2008 when gold was over $1000 an ounce.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The dow was $12-12,500 in March 2008 when gold was over $1000 an ounce.

Sorry if I'm being stupid here, but what does buy the dow mean then? If I add up the price of each share in the dow it doesn't add up to $12K.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry if I'm being stupid here, but what does buy the dow mean then? If I add up the price of each share in the dow it doesn't add up to $12K.

 

They add up they price of all the shares and divide it by a fudge factor number.

 

The Fudge factor is currently less than one. You can work out exactly what it is by dividing the sum of all the share prices by the price of the Dow.

 

They change the fudge number every time a dividend is paid (and when shares merge or split). This adjusts the Dow.

 

I don’t know why they feel the need to adjust it.

 

EDIT: A share price falls when dividends are declared. Maybe the Dow is designed not to fall at this stage through use of the fudge factor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4682554...ank-crisis.html

 

Gold hits record against euro on fear of Zimbabwean-style response to bank crisis

Gold has surged to an all-time high against the euro, sterling, and a string of Asian currencies on mounting concerns that global authorities are embarking on a "Zimbabwe-style" debasement of the international monetary system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An overview of where Gold is now.

 

This is my favourite chart, as it gives Gold versus the US$ and also Gold versus the basket of currencies in the US$ Index (ie the important currencies except the US$).

Thus is gives a good idea of how Gold is performing relative to all the major currencies, and avoids a US$ centric view.

 

KGI_1yr_090218.gif

 

 

You can also see how Gold has performed relative to a number of major currencies individually.

Over the last year:

 

Gold_MajorCurrencies_yr_090218.gif

 

And over the past 5 years:

 

Gold_MajorCurrencies_5yr_090218.gif

 

 

Like the GBP, the NZ$ has been collapsing. It seems like yesterday that GoldNZ$ was NZ$1800. Now it's in the NZ$1900 range !

 

GoldNZ_090218.gif

 

 

I don't envy anyone wanting to buy Gold at the moment. It's an almost impossible decision. It is dangerous to follow a move up, but no one knows how high this move will go. It could go to well over GoldUS$ = $1000, or it could drop back to the bottom of the recent multi-monthly trend line.

 

All the fundamental reasons why gold is in a bull market are even more obvious now than 2 years ago. So whatever your short-term decisions, at least the trend is your friend.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GoldUS_090218.gif

 

IMO it's better to take a longer-term view.

What is a reasonable long-term growth rate ?

 

If you think 20%/year, then the current price is a little above that line.

If you think these extreme times means it will be higher,, like 40%/year, then the current price is still well below that line.

 

GoldUS_090131_perc.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A must listen, BBC radio 4 today program. Stephen Bell and Liam Halligan argue inflation or deflation. Forward to 2:48.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00hh...day_17_02_2009/

 

Final comment: whats happening in our name at the moment, risks unleashing an inflation tsunami that will completely undermine sterling and we will have a guilt strike.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×