signofthetimes Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 A must listen, BBC radio 4 today program. Stephen Bell and Liam Galagar argue inflation or deflation. Forward to 2:48. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00hh...day_17_02_2009/ I knew Oasis would turn shit when Liam started taking an interest in economics. Oh hang on, they were always shit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 I knew Oasis would turn shit when Liam started taking an interest in economics. Oh hang on, they were always shit.. Ive revised it now to Liam Halligan. Silly old fool, me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Ive revised it now to Liam Halligan. Silly old fool, me... quality fwiw - the first time I saw it I was taken in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Ive revised it now to Liam Halligan. Silly old fool, me... :lol: Gold hits record against euro on fear of Zimbabwean-style response to bank crisis http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4682554...ank-crisis.html Gold has surged to an all-time high against the euro, sterling, and a string of Asian currencies on mounting concerns that global authorities are embarking on a "Zimbabwe-style" debasement of the international monetary system. "This gold rally is driven by safe-haven fears and has a very different feel from the bull market we've had for the last eight years," said John Reade, chief metals strategist at UBS. "Investors are seeing articles in the press saying governments should deliberately stoke inflation, and they are reacting to it." Gold jumped to multiple records on Tuesday, triggered by fears that East Europe's banking crisis could set off debt defaults and lead to contagion within the eurozone. It touched €762 an ounce against the euro, £675 against sterling, and 47,783 against India's rupee. Jewellery demand – usually the mainstay of the industry – has almost entirely dried up and the price is now being driven by investors. They range from the billionaires stashing boxes of krugerrands under the floors of their Swiss chalets (as an emergency fund for total disorder) to the small savers buying the exchange traded funds (ETFs). SPDR Gold Trust has added 200 metric tonnes in the last six weeks. ETF Securities added 62,000 ounces last week alone. In dollar terms, gold is at a seven-month high of $964. This is below last spring's peak of $1,030 but the circumstances today are radically different. The dollar itself has become a safe haven as the crisis goes from bad to worse – if only because it is the currency of a unified and powerful nation with institutions that have been tested over time. It is not yet clear how well the eurozone's 16-strong bloc of disparate states will respond to extreme stress. The euro dived two cents to $1.26 against the dollar, threatening to break below a 24-year upward trend line. Crucially, gold has decoupled from oil and base metals, finding once again its ancient role as a store of wealth in dangerous times. "People can see that the only solution to the credit crisis is to devalue all fiat currencies," said Peter Hambro, chairman of the Anglo-Russian mining group Peter Hambro Gold. "The job of central bankers is to allow this to happen in an orderly fashion through inflation. I'm afraid it is the only way to avoid disaster, but naturally investors are turning to gold as a form of wealth insurance." One analyst said the spectacle of central banks slashing rates to zero across the world and buying government debt as if there was no tomorrow feels like the "beginning of the 'Zimbabwe-isation' of the global economy". Gold bugs have been emboldened by news that Russia has accumulated 90 tonnes over the last 15 months. "We are buying gold," said Alexei Ulyukayev, deputy head of Russia's central bank. The bank is under orders from the Kremlin to raise the gold share of foreign reserves to 10pc. The trend by central banks and global wealth funds to shift reserves into euro bonds may have peaked as it becomes clear that the European region is tipping into a slump that is as deep – if not deeper – than the US downturn. Germany contracted at an 8.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter. The severity of the crash in Britain, Ireland, Spain, the Baltics, Hungary, Ukraine and Russia has shifted the epicentre of this crisis across the Atlantic. The latest shock news is the 20pc fall in Russia's industrial production in January. The country is losing half a million jobs a month. Markets have been rattled this week by warnings from rating agency Moody's that Austrian, Swedish and Italian banks may face downgrades over their heavy exposure to the ex-Soviet bloc. The region has borrowed $1.7 trillion (£1.2 trillion) – mostly from European banks – and must roll over $400bn this year. Austria's central bank governor, Ewald Nowotny, said the regional crisis had become "dangerous" and called for a pan-EU rescue strategy to prevent contagion. Bartosz Pawlowski, from TD Securities, said the recent plunge in currencies across Eastern Europe had come as a brutal shock. "The rout could potentially lead to substantial problems, if not an outright collapse of the financial system," he said, citing the rising real burden of debt taken out in euros and Swiss francs. Even Poland – a pillar of stability in the region – may ultimately need a bail-out by the International Monetary Fund. Latvia, Hungary, Ukraine and Belarus have already been rescued. Romania's premier, Emil Boc said his country would decide over the next two weeks whether to seek an IMF loan. Turkey is next. Gold performing its very very long-term safe haven role as a monetary asset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 A must listen, BBC radio 4 today program. Stephen Bell and Liam Halligan argue inflation or deflation. Forward to 2:48. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00hh...day_17_02_2009/ Final comment: whats happening in our name at the moment, risks unleashing an inflation tsunami that will completely undermine sterling and we will have a guilt strike. Is that when nobody takes the blame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 I can't believe they scoffed at Liam for saying "debauch the currency" assuming he mispronounced/misquoted JMK. Do these boys have an economics A-Level between them? A must listen, BBC radio 4 today program. Stephen Bell and Liam Halligan argue inflation or deflation. Forward to 2:48. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00hh...day_17_02_2009/ Final comment: whats happening in our name at the moment, risks unleashing an inflation tsunami that will completely undermine sterling and we will have a guilt strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Guys - I think I've found something that is very bullish for anyone in the UK at least and would appreciate your thoughts. I use Stockcharts quite a bit now and have just started using something called 'Ichimoku Clouds' as an overlay as it seems to give better indications of a forthcoming bull/bear trend. Using $GOLD:XBP Right now the cloud is green which is bullish and the price is above the cloud with the green cloud extending into the end of March on the daily chart. On the weekly chart the green cloud extends all the way to August although it gets thinner. I'm still trying to understand all the indicators - I don't think you need MA's on the chart as this is meant to tell you everything you need to know about the trend. $GOLD On the daily chart the cloud is still green into the end of March but on the weekly chart it goes red from March into August which is meant to be bearish. I don't know how it all works and how reliable it is, but from what I can tell so far the outlook for gold denominated in sterling looks to remain bullish whilst it will become bearish for gold priced in dollars. So this would possibly mean that: 1) Sterling is going to weaken much further - just read Nadeem Walayat latest article where I think he said pound/dollar would go to 1:1. The pound has always been devaluing faster against the dollar (I think it used to be $4/£1 many many years ago) probably through higher levels of inflation (compare 70's US inflation with the UK) 2) Will gold/silver mining shares still perform well if the POG in dollars goes down but goes up in sterling. Would it be better to have UK listd mining shares or would it not matter? I hope someone else can have a play around and see what they think. More here: http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Invest...moku-clouds.jsp Edit - just to say using this technique on the S&P, Dow and FTSE and it looks bloody awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Guys - I think I've found something that is very bullish for anyone in the UK at least and would appreciate your thoughts. I use Stockcharts quite a bit now and have just started using something called 'Ichimoku Clouds' as an overlay as it seems to give better indications of a forthcoming bull/bear trend. I have maintained a healthy skepticism of technical analysis. I read comments based upon it, and do some myself, but I have this voice in my ear saying "beware". I guess it comes down to whether you think markets are driven by news and fundamentals, or whether they are driven my traders doing technical analysis. I think there is a mix of the two, and because traders use certain TA methods, those methods create self full-filling prophecies. eg if most traders see a resistance level, then you're likely to see a bounce of it. But, do you think for example the drop in the DOW last year was caused by traders analysing charts? Of course not. They reacted to economic news. They dumped stocks when they saw bad news likely to adversely affect prices. Then TA comes in when trying to guess where the bounces will be. So for me it's better to start with a long-term view based on fundamentals, and then add some guesswork with TA to try and spot the route. Ichimoku Clouds - they are pretty aren't they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 It looks like someone just fired the starting pistol. And in front is silver by a length........ $972.17. Not far to $1000 I guess silver has to go to get back to $20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 In times of crisis, never forget the value of gold William Rees-Mogg : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Rees-Mogg February 16, 2009 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/c...icle5740620.ece Others may have commented and I am a few days behind here, but this is convincing evidence that the 'middle' classes will soon 'get it' and pile in IMO. What I mean is articles like this in the Times from someone of Moggs influence are key yo bolstering support in UK buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 18, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 ... $972.17. Not far to $1000 ... $30, no big deal, or is it? Bl00dy Cartel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Others may have commented and I am a few days behind here, but this is convincing evidence that the 'middle' classes will soon 'get it' and pile in IMO. What I mean is articles like this in the Times from someone of Moggs influence are key yo bolstering support in UK buying. More importantly, the big investors Imagine if all the fund managers decide they have to have 10% in gold as insurance, otherwise they risk being taken to court for reckless behaviour. They can no longer claim ignorance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Fractures in Euro Currency, Bank Turmoil, lifting Gold, Feb 17, 2009 By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends newsletter http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 ... Using $GOLD:XBP ... $GOLD ... The chart links don't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Is anyone else feeling that we're overdue a bit of a pull-back/consolidation? Perhaps if I were a little more trading-minded, I might be thinking about selling a little in the expectation of being able to buy more gold with the money in the near future. MoneyWeek's Money Morning, 18-Feb-09... I'll take that as a 'yes'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 The chart links don't work Try these; http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p97590000336 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p44068394149 Note for catflpap: Click "linkable version" when trying to copy links from stockcharts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Try these; http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p97590000336 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p44068394149 Thanks Guys - I think I've found something that is very bullish for anyone in the UK at least and would appreciate your thoughts. I use Stockcharts quite a bit now and have just started using something called 'Ichimoku Clouds' as an overlay as it seems to give better indications of a forthcoming bull/bear trend. ... It looks like a lagging indicator to me. This is a one way trip to the poor house. Say you went short in Jun 2008 (the middle of the chart) based on the bearish cloud: Gold went up a lot and came down a bit - You’ve lost money In Aug 2008, the cloud turns green, close the short open a long and… You’ve lost money again. In Sept 2008, the cloud turns red, close the long open a short and guess what! You’ve lost money again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 18, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 MoneyWeek's Money Morning, 18-Feb-09... I'll take that as a 'yes'! And if we do get Evans-Pritchard's meltdown, gold will sell off just as it did in the autumn, providing us with another buying opportunity later in the year. That's what the Cartel wants you to think. One day there will be a meltdown, and gold does what it did if it hadn't been manipulated for all those years: go up and up and up. I understand where Frizzers is coming from, and I am not buying gold at the moment either. But I also wouldn't sell any (as long as it is physical anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sideshow Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 I sold all my ETF ($19k) yesterday. Bought 10 oz bar from Kitco instead. Seemed like a good move to me. Scale down a bit and move into the actual metal. The hardest thing I find is deciding which currency to invest in - GBP or USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Surely you mean devest not invest. I sold all my ETF ($19k) yesterday. Bought 10 oz bar from Kitco instead. Seemed like a good move to me. Scale down a bit and move into the actual metal. The hardest thing I find is deciding which currency to invest in - GBP or USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seekingclarity Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eff64394-fdd7-11...0077b07658.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCSucks Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eff64394-fdd7-11...0077b07658.html I cannot say with any confidence that gold will not be without risk and volatility but at least it offers early participants plenty of upside reward to compensate them for the wild ride. How early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Just to let you know, Britannia’s are very cheap on CID at the moment, they're £739.38 compared with Weighton Coins at £765.00. Admittedly CID's are not '09 Britannia’s but who cares? CID's price doesn't look right given the current spot rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 Gold now at $979. It's been an 11 month wait but gold is very close now to a test on four-figures again, IMHO. If I remember last time correctly, it spiked through $1000 from about 20 dollars below. Well, we are now $20 below. Anything at all goes our way in the markets in the next 24h, then we may breakthrough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 A good day for gold. A test of the $1030 high now looks very likely. I'm going to be a bit more cryptic instead of a traditional Titan or Saturn V. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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