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Dumb question, but if your source is good and there is about to be intervention, why not sell, wait, and buy back for less?

 

It’s not a dumb question

 

My thoughts:

 

* Mass selling will cause the price to fall and the intervention may be put on ice allowing the price PoG to rise again

 

* ‘Being organised’ could mean ‘in six months time’

 

* The source may be wrong

 

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The miners have been a bit sticky on the upside of recent - particularly given the gains.

 

Do people here use the miners much to gauge the strength of moves in bullion?

 

Also, if I may be so bold as to qualify cgnao's advice, I would say:

 

Sell the ETF while in profit (if you have any, as I did)

 

Use any dip to replace the position with physical

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I feel that gold could first make a new record high after the stockmarket has bottomed, just like it did at the end of December 1974 - the US stockmarket looks as if it could go lower so I'm waiting until March to see what happens. Another 20% '5th leg' down in the stockmarket could well propel gold even higher so there's every reason to be cautious about going long or short on either gold or stocks - besides, further weakening of the pound against the dollar could help cushion any gold price falls for UK investors.

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Well, amongst all this bullishness I see, I have to say, I've been busy selling into this strength today. Never my core physical holdings, but taking profits on some gold stocks, and lightening up on a little goldmoney silver. Its well possible we might have a little further to run, but I'll stick make money on my core positions if thats the case. Ditto if it really is 'different this time' and this is the beginning of a run on all fiat currencies.. Does anyone else feel we are just a little overextended at this point?

 

 

Yes we are definitely over extended. Can't be arsed to justify anymore as I have been for a week now and get shot down.

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In 1914, people were tricked into exchanging one of their gold pieces into one voucher. They were told they could exchange them back any time but encouraged not to. Gradually over nearly 100 years the vouchers have been devalued so that you now need 170 vouchers for one of the gold pieces. Unfortunatly for those with vouchers, the scheme is failing and the great fraud is sinking like the titanic. Those with insight got themselves into a life boat. Some of them, seeing that other lifeboats had what look like greater riches, got back on the titanic in an effort to chance a place on a better life boat.

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People still haven't understood. Price is irrelevant.

 

If you can buy physical, buy it. Keep it in your own hands. Do not sell or trade it. Ignore the day to day, week to week, even month to month price movements.

 

Well said Errol.

 

People need to understand the situation we are in. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

 

from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1235045152...tml?mod=testMod

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new bear-market closing low, as the financial sector continued to decline and investors found little impetus to buy in a flurry of economic data.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 89.68 points, or 1.2%, to close at 7465.95. The blue-chip benchmark had flirted all week with its five-and-half-year closing low of 7552.29, set on Nov. 20. Thursday, the Dow briefly dipped under its five-and-a-half-year intraday low of 7449.38 of Nov. 21.

 

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The miners have been a bit sticky on the upside of recent - particularly given the gains.

 

Do people here use the miners much to gauge the strength of moves in bullion?

 

I've been trading the gold miners since 2005 and I think they normally are a good leading indicator. I'm completely out of my mining stocks just now. One day it won't work of course. It will be the day it goes parabolic and you just won't get a dip to buy back in on...

 

But I got caught up in the '06 correction and learnt the hard way - I'm not doing that again.

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In 1914, people were tricked into exchanging one of their gold pieces into one voucher. They were told they could exchange them back any time but encouraged not to. Gradually over nearly 100 years the vouchers have been devalued so that you now need 170 vouchers for one of the gold pieces.

 

yeah, it's crazy to think that this time last century a pound would buy you a full sovereign; today it won't even buy you a kilo of basmati.

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Dumb question, but if your source is good and there is about to be intervention, why not sell, wait, and buy back for less?

 

Hate to even try to answer a question asked of Cg, but I have the feeling it won't work. You won't be able to buy back for less.

 

Please excuse this post if the event I'm completely wrong. Just a feeling I have.

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Thinking about this UBS client situation and its implications...

So, UBS is forced to handover details of 50000 tax evaders. This has to damage the credibility of the Swiss banking system, IMO.

Add to this the calls from Gordon Brown for concerted 'tax haven' action by the US, Europe, UK etc. and you might have a full-blown panic in the offshore account world.

 

Now, where is that money going to go? Other tax havens are also vulnerable. Any digital security leaves an electronic trail of evidence.

I bet a fair chunk is going into physical gold.

 

 

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Thinking about this UBS client situation and its implications...

So, UBS is forced to handover details of 50000 tax evaders. This has to damage the credibility of the Swiss banking system, IMO.

Add to this the calls from Gordon Brown for concerted 'tax haven' action by the US, Europe, UK etc. and you might have a full-blown panic in the offshore account world.

 

Now, where is that money going to go? Other tax havens are also vulnerable. Any digital security leaves an electronic trail of evidence.

I bet a fair chunk is going into physical gold.

Will the really go after the 'elite' clients in Switzerland? Surely the government insiders and their mates have their stash there as well? And what about the VIAMat gold vaults?

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yeah, it's crazy to think that this time last century a pound would buy you a full sovereign; today it won't even buy you a kilo of basmati.

In one generation, people have been fooled out of their gold. For thousands of years gold is universally known as money. For King and country people are encouraged to leave their gold with the BofE and use paper vouchers instead to help the war effort and now most think gold is a commodity, something plated onto hifi plugs and quite useless otherwise, except jewelry.

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