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imo the ratios will be met as firstly house prices and the Dow continue to fall and as secondly gold continues to rise due to demand for its monetary qualities. There was a thread on these ratios which was put together a few months ago. Looking for it now.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....t=0&start=0

 

Maybe you missed my point. I wasn't arguing that the ratios wouldn't be met, but, in order to get the $10k gold that is sometimes bandied around, they would have to become, say, 15-20:1 for houses and 0.3-0.5:1 for the DOW! :o

 

In other words, are those of us who are expecting $10k gold happy to agree with such unprecedented ratios for gold compared with houses and the DOW?

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Maybe you missed my point. I wasn't arguing that the ratios wouldn't be met, but, in order to get the $10k gold that is sometimes bandied around, they would have to become, say, 15-20:1 for houses and 0.3-0.5:1 for the DOW! :o

 

In other words, are those of us who are expecting $10k gold happy to agree with such unprecedented ratios for gold compared with houses and the DOW?

 

I think it is hard to determine the price of the Dow when gold is $10k because maybe the Dow will not exist?...

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Maybe you missed my point. I wasn't arguing that the ratios wouldn't be met, but, in order to get the $10k gold that is sometimes bandied around, they would have to become, say, 15-20:1 for houses and 0.3-0.5:1 for the DOW! :o

 

In other words, are those of us who are expecting $10k gold happy to agree with such unprecedented ratios for gold compared with houses and the DOW?

Not if the BoE dishes out fresh money for cheap. Also called QE. :)

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And to put this into context, with Alf Field's numbers:

 

Alf_Field_Prediction090307.gif

 

Elliott Wave Gold Update 23

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/dec022008.html

 

You do realise that gold averaged $675 in January 1980 when gold hit it's 1-day peak of $850. Using the following calculator gives the inflation adjusted values:

 

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/

 

$675 in January 1980 would be $1789 today

 

$850 on 21 January 1980 would be $2253 today

 

How many people actually sold their gold on the 21 January for the absolute peak price?........ not many so this figure is totally useless - at best you would probably have sold for the monthly average since you are likely to 'average out' at a top in the same way as you 'average in' at a bottom.

 

So the achievable gold peak price in January 1980 was really about $1800 in todays terms - I find it really really hard to understand how some people think gold is likely to go to anything like $10,000. They are complete nutters, end of - I'm interested in rational arguments about what gold is likely to go to. So allowing for a peak in maybe 5/6 years time with 1/2 more years of very low inflation and 3/4/5 years of higher inflation (possibly much higher) then $3,500 is a possible target, but $10,000 - forget it!.

 

Ta for posting the chart btw

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You do realise that gold averaged $675 in January 1980 when gold hit it's 1-day peak of $850. Using the following calculator gives the inflation adjusted values:

 

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/

 

$675 in January 1980 would be $1789 today

 

$850 on 21 January 1980 would be $2253 today

 

How many people actually sold their gold on the 21 January for the absolute peak price?........ not many so this figure is totally useless - at best you would probably have sold for the monthly average since you are likely to 'average out' at a top in the same way as you 'average in' at a bottom.

 

So the achievable gold peak price in January 1980 was really about $1800 in todays terms - I find it really really hard to understand how some people think gold is likely to go to anything like $10,000. They are complete nutters, end of - I'm interested in rational arguments about what gold is likely to go to. So allowing for a peak in maybe 5/6 years time with 1/2 more years of very low inflation and 3/4/5 years of higher inflation (possibly much higher) then $3,500 is a possible target, but $10,000 - forget it!.

 

Ta for posting the chart btw

 

Given current policies i think $10,000 is likely

 

probably before 2015

 

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12774.htm

So you see, any pause in present trends, with particular attention to how gold is steeling the show due to grand scale deleveraging, would only be that - a pause within a secular trend of the highest order. And it's very important you understand this, because the bad news doesn't end there. No, the world is not just deleveraging a rotten and corrupt financial system. This is only a symptom of the disease. What is happening on a larger scale is the entire socio-political economy of our very existence is coming into question, brought on by Peak Oil, excessive population growth, etc., where up until now the prognosis appears to be increasingly bleak considering special interests still have far to much influence on the pace at which alternative energy systems are being developed. In this respect it appears the combination of faulty pricing mechanisms in concert with everything else (think misplaced intervention, deflation perception, etc.) keeping energy prices too low right now could manifest into an increasingly profound crisis in coming years, one where economic hardship, and even famine, reach populations presently viewed as insular. (i.e. that means you.)

 

This is scary stuff, no? And so is the nationalization of banks, collapsing economies, and the bureaucracy's increasing inability to stop the slide. Such is life on the farm however, where the next 'big card' to drop will be when gold goes through four-figure resistance at $1,000 on it's way to five. That's right, once the cat's out of the bag, meaning gold moves firmly into four-figure territory, you can begin entertaining such thoughts, especially since the socialists will not give up without a fight. Of course all the fiscal stimulus and bailouts are doing is delaying the inevitable, with systemic collapse unavoidable now. So don't dismiss gold's potential moving forward because as proved in last week's analysis, the public is still in complete denial with respect to what the future holds, meaning they haven't even started buying yet.

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You do realise that gold averaged $675 in January 1980 when gold hit it's 1-day peak of $850. Using the following calculator gives the inflation adjusted values:

 

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/

 

$675 in January 1980 would be $1789 today

 

$850 on 21 January 1980 would be $2253 today

 

How many people actually sold their gold on the 21 January for the absolute peak price?........ not many so this figure is totally useless - at best you would probably have sold for the monthly average since you are likely to 'average out' at a top in the same way as you 'average in' at a bottom.

 

So the achievable gold peak price in January 1980 was really about $1800 in todays terms - I find it really really hard to understand how some people think gold is likely to go to anything like $10,000. They are complete nutters, end of - I'm interested in rational arguments about what gold is likely to go to. So allowing for a peak in maybe 5/6 years time with 1/2 more years of very low inflation and 3/4/5 years of higher inflation (possibly much higher) then $3,500 is a possible target, but $10,000 - forget it!.

 

Ta for posting the chart btw

 

 

Who says we are going to get a repeat of 1980? What was 1980 a repeat of so as to conclude what would happen then? I think the situation today is far worse, and Im not worried what the price of gold is in dollars, but GBP.

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Given current policies i think $10,000 is likely

 

probably before 2015

 

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12774.htm

 

Same old story, just a different asset this time - the suckers who believe this and who try and justify their arguments when gold is already around $3,000 will be the same kind of suckers that bought heavily into dot.com shares in 1998-99 and property in 2005-06. I can't remember what perentage gold investment was of total gold sales but do remember it being quite low (there was a pie chart I saw once - can anyone post it upif they have it?) compared to jewelry which I think is where the biggest demand comes from (eg, the wedding season in India). Industrial uses and dentistry use was also a fairly big chunck - if gold gets too expensive then I think demand from these other users would tail off thereby causing prices too fall back.

 

 

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Hi Claptrap :) No offence, just a joke!

 

Who says we are going to get a repeat of 1980? What was 1980 a repeat of so as to conclude what would happen then? I think the situation today is far worse, and Im not worried what the price of gold is in dollars, but GBP.

 

Ha ha - not heard that one before! :rolleyes::P:lol::blink:

 

:)

 

Gold is the best defense when we get a currency collapse and that could be coming - 1 GBP could at some stage equal 1 USD which is why there's is every reason to worry about gold priced in GBP.

 

Just be careful of predictions of gold going to the moon - I think $3,000 is easily achievable within the next few years, but those of us not in the US need to think a lot harder as we also have the currency risk which is hard to predict. Just bouncing ideas off that are in my head right now - who knows what's going to happen....... I think gold possibly performs a lot differently in a deflationary cycle than an inflationary one (like the 70's).

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So the achievable gold peak price in January 1980 was really about $1800 in todays terms - I find it really really hard to understand how some people think gold is likely to go to anything like $10,000. They are complete nutters, end of - I'm interested in rational arguments about what gold is likely to go to. So allowing for a peak in maybe 5/6 years time with 1/2 more years of very low inflation and 3/4/5 years of higher inflation (possibly much higher) then $3,500 is a possible target, but $10,000 - forget it!.

 

You are including Krassimir Petrov in that view :o

 

Try inflation adjusting $350 from 1980, using the REAL inflation numbers. Your $3500 looks rather low !

 

 

 

 

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Recent article from the "nutter" Krassimir Petrov:

 

How High Can Gold Go Before Peaking - Gold Dow Jones Ratio Important Indicator

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3753.html

 

The first scenario , deflation, implies a major contraction in the supply of money and credit, similar to the one during the Great Depression. Consumer and commodity prices would fall rapidly; the stock market and real estate market would collapse. Back then, stock prices and real estate fell roughly 10 times and gold rose only a little. If this scenario were to play out, then a reasonable forecast for the Dow will be about $1,000-1,500, while the gold price will be likely in the range of $800-1,500. This scenario is highly unlikely as the Fed will fight tooth and nail to prevent a deflation from taking hold.

 

The second scenario , stagflation, is most likely. It should look similar to the 1970s. Back then, the Dow made its peak in 1966. It made little progress for about 15 years, so that in 1980 it was just about where it was in 1966, roughly around 1,000. Gold, on the other hand, rose from a low of $35 all the way to $850. This means that strong inflation during the period kept the Dow from falling, so it did not fall as it did during the Great Depression. On the other hand, inflation powered the price of gold about 25-fold. In this scenario, we should expect the Dow to remain range-bound in the 10,000-15,000 range. Then, a gold forecast of 10,000 is perfectly realistic.

 

The third scenario , very strong inflation, is definitely possible, although less likely than stagflation. This would mean a typical, commonly-observed inflation of a third-world country, may be 15-25% annually. This kind of inflation could easily power the Dow may be 3-4 times in the coming decade, may be all the way to $30,000-50,000. This could mean a $20 for a loaf of bread or a gallon of gasoline. This would imply a gold price in the range of 20,000-50,000. It is possible, even probable, but in my opinion, not very realistic.

 

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You are including Krassimir Petrov in that view :o

 

Try inflation adjusting $350 from 1980, using the REAL inflation numbers. Your $3500 looks rather low !

 

Who's he then? :)

 

I suppose the only way to see if the inflation numbers are that fraudulent is to do the same with gold in 1980 priced in GBP using the official BoE inflation figures and then see if they match up with the exchange rate back then.

 

Based on $1,000 gold now, then $10,000 gold would mean a single gold sovereign going for £1,700 and a 1oz Krugerand going for £7,200 - that would be some mania bubble if that happened or we would be having hyperinflation. This would happen around 2014 (14 years from the 2000 SM price earnings top and 5 years after the SM bottom).

 

As OJ has pointed out in an earlier post, what invalidates gold going to $10,000 is how many ounces of gold will buy the average house at this point.

 

Eg: Average UK earnings in 2014 could be around £36k and average UK house could be 3 times this, then average house price is £108,000

 

60 ounces means gold is £1,800 oz

80 ounces means gold is £1,350 oz

100 ounces means gold is £1,080 oz

 

So I believe we will easily double from where we are now by 2014 and possibly triple, but gold going to $10,000 is just pure fantasy as it's excluding other assets that would be a far better buy in the coming years, ie. property which will be at a bottom AND pays an income.

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Maybe you missed my point. I wasn't arguing that the ratios wouldn't be met, but, in order to get the $10k gold that is sometimes bandied around, they would have to become, say, 15-20:1 for houses and 0.3-0.5:1 for the DOW! :o

 

In other words, are those of us who are expecting $10k gold happy to agree with such unprecedented ratios for gold compared with houses and the DOW?

When I said the ratios would be met I was referring to the commonly accepted and often bandied about ratios; 100-1 for houses and 1:1 for the Dow. These are much more significant than "prices". Given that I believe these ratios will be realised along biflationary lines with the Dow and houses continuing to come down and gold rising then obviously I do not see gold going to $10,000 but more likely $2000 - $3000.

 

Look for gold to double from here and the Dow to half.

 

 

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All these arguments about the POG are just irrelevant.

 

I'm sure Cgnao would agree with me.

No they are not. They are about reasonable expectations as opposed to fantasies.

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Recent article from the "nutter" Krassimir Petrov:

 

How High Can Gold Go Before Peaking - Gold Dow Jones Ratio Important Indicator

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3753.html

The first scenario , deflation, implies a major contraction in the supply of money and credit, similar to the one during the Great Depression. Consumer and commodity prices would fall rapidly; the stock market and real estate market would collapse. Back then, stock prices and real estate fell roughly 10 times and gold rose only a little. If this scenario were to play out, then a reasonable forecast for the Dow will be about $1,000-1,500, while the gold price will be likely in the range of $800-1,500. This scenario is highly unlikely as the Fed will fight tooth and nail to prevent a deflation from taking hold.

 

I am surprised someone of Petrovs calibre does not account for the stability of gold's price in the depresssion due to the dollar being on the gold standard. The dollar is now not on the gold standard and given similiar conditions the price of gold will go up as demand increases. He also thinks the Fed can actually successfully fight a deflation. We know they are not omniscient [more a ship of fools really] nor are they omnipotent.

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Alf's price targets are based upon the Fibonacci number sequences. And in his article he states that the gains to be made from $3500 to $10000 are understated: 3 times the previous low of $3500 is only to outline the minimum terminal peak price of gold (in USD). To follow the sequence logically, the previous low should be multiplied by 6 (Wave 1 low multiplied by 4, Wave 3 low multiplied by 5, Wave 5 low multiplied by 6). Thus, a final price target of $21,000 can be reached according to the rules of Elliot Waves with Fibonacci sequences. Can this really happen? Who knows? Its definately something to look out for.

 

The mother of all shake-outs will occur when we hit that $3500 target. This is significant because it gives the US the opportunity to at least moderate the debt liabilities with a rise in Gold and prices. Alf explains more here:

Concentrating on the $3,500 target for Major THREE, which is a five fold increase from the low point of about $700, there is a case advanced in “Crisis Cogitations” for a five fold increase in money and prices in order to arrive at a “Less Hard” economic landing. In the USA, total debt recently exceeded $50 trillion and this is unsustainable given an economy with a GDP of only $14 trillion. The suggestion is that the debt level will reduce through bankruptcies to say $35 trillion while the new money created to save the situation will push up the nominal GDP to $70 trillion. A $35 trillion debt level is manageable with a GDP of $70 trillion.

 

It requires a five fold increase in prices to achieve the above result. Gold has retained its purchasing power over the centuries and will no doubt continue to do so in the current environment. Consequently gold will almost certainly increase five fold (or more) if the level of prices in the USA increases five fold.

 

It will be at that point when a semblance of confidence is restored that the precious metals will respond accordingly. However, that will not be the end. The price decline from $3500 to $2500 will boot out everybody but the most hardened gold-bugs. Every man and his dog will say that Gold is finished. All the GEI Gold bears will be peeing in your face. :lol: Then, and only then, will the soon-to-be legendary vertical warp speed price rise occur. I think everyone will be surprised just how high the price will go. This will be the time to test to the depths of your soul how much you really believe in this bull. That's why trading Gold will be suicidal, except for the unemotional and heartless. Goldfinger said it best: something about picking up nickels in front of steamrollers....

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It will be at that point when a semblance of confidence is restored that the precious metals will respond accordingly. However, that will not be the end. The price decline from $3500 to $2500 will boot out everybody but the most hardened gold-bugs. Every man and his dog will say that Gold is finished. All the GEI Gold bears will be peeing in your face. :lol: Then, and only then, will the soon-to-be legendary vertical warp speed price rise occur. I think everyone will be surprised just how high the price will go. This will be the time to test to the depths of your soul how much you really believe in this bull. That's why trading Gold will be suicidal, except for the unemotional and heartless. Goldfinger said it best: something about picking up nickels in front of steamrollers....

Anything is possible and it is all about timing.

 

Though short term trading is essentially gambling, it makes perfect sense to trade in the medium term with a portion of your bullion. This is the difference between gambling and speculation.

 

Over and above a smaller speculative trading position, your bullion position would be considered a long term investment. Even so, an exit strategy is needed at some time in order to enjoy certain positions in life such as owning free-hold and productive property. I mean who wants to be holding onto money forever, a mere means to an end instead of enjoying the ends in life? Perhaps only the true gold bug. :)

 

When the gold bull deems the time is right to swap gold for assets I doubt very much he will sell all of it. A small portion may be kept not because the price will as you suggest go to the moon [if it did go to the moon you would have to ask if that price represented anything real] but because as a solid currency it will remain an excellent store of value.

 

As for being unemotional, I agree. The qualities required of an investor [as found in the foreword of Reminiscences ] are patience, self-discipline and a mind-set of detachment.

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Recent article from the "nutter" Krassimir Petrov:

 

How High Can Gold Go Before Peaking - Gold Dow Jones Ratio Important Indicator

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3753.html

 

It's not that recent, Steve: it's 2009 now! ;)

 

To quote Petrov from that article:

 

"So, how high will gold go? The correct answer is simple: as high as Dow Jones."

 

When the article was published, the Dow was around 12400[1] and we'd not yet seen the huge drops of the '08 (and '09). Petrov doesn't appear to be saying that the Dow will drop in nominal terms, only that the ratio between gold and the Dow may reach parity.

 

But if the Dow loses value dramatically -- as it has done, and it may have further to go? -- then, surely, our estimates for the peak price in gold should be adjusted accordingly?

 

I don't know anything about anything, but if gold goes to, say, $3k an ounce, it feels that this may be because of a flight to safety, or speculation (one of the only bull markets left?), but if it reaches $10k, will that only be because of rampant inflation? -- and therefore it won't mean that gold is actually worth any more in real terms than what we might currently think $3k is worth[2]?

 

Don't get me wrong, it would suit me fine if gold were to reach $10k (in terms of what we currently think $10k is worth), but I do wonder if we get to such high prices, it will only be because the dollar is worth less (or worthless!)... In which case, the sky is the limit -- it could go to $50k... $100k... $whatever-k... but in real terms, it won't be worth that! ;)

 

Any responses to this view gratefully received as ever! :)

 

[1] Although, in the article, his hypothetical value of the Dow is mentioned as being 13600, so he may have written the article in, say, December '07.

 

[2] That's not to say gold isn't worth buying anyway -- preserving the value of what money we do have is a worthy goal, at least as much as hoping to make some kind of profit, if not moreso.

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3 links to gold stuff at FT:

 

Hedge funds turn to gold - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37fcba70-0c0a-11...00779fd2ac.html

 

Hedge funds turn to gold

 

By Henny Sender in New York and Javier Blas in London

 

Published: March 8 2009 18:13 | Last updated: March 8 2009 18:13

 

Hedge fund investors who made money last year by betting against investment banks are now buying gold as a way of betting against central banks.

 

The gold bulls include David Einhorn, founder of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, who last year came under the spotlight for his short selling of shares in Lehman Brothers, after arguing that the bank did not have enough capital to offset its exposure to falling property prices. Other funds looking at gold include Eton Park and TPG-Axon, investors said.

 

Their belief in bullion is being expressed even as gold prices have retreated from last month’s break above the $1,000 an ounce level. Spot gold in London closed last Friday at $939.10, after falling last week to $900.95 an ounce.

 

Investors such as Mr Einhorn are turning to gold because they are worried about the response of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to the global economic crisis. A bet on gold is essentially a bet against all paper currencies.

 

“The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is exploding and the currency is being debased. Our guess is that if the chairman of the Fed is determined to debase the currency, he will succeed,” Mr Einhorn wrote in a recent letter to his investors. “Our instinct is that gold will do well either way: deflation will lead to further steps to debase the currency, while inflation speaks for itself.”

 

Mr Einhorn’s comments – and the revelation he is buying gold itself – are in line with the views held by other large institutional investors in Europe, according to bankers in London. The head of commodity sales at one major bullion bank told the Financial Times that he had never been so busy dealing in gold for large investors in his life.

 

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS all forecast the gold price will surge above $1,000 this year. Peter Munk, chairman of Barrick Gold, the world’s largest miner of bullion, told investors last week that all countries have embarked on policies that will favour gold.“The only option to governments is to print and print more money,” he said. “That will end in tears.”

 

In the past, hedge funds, which depend on absolute returns to earn high fees, had avoided gold because it does not produce any yield and costs money to store and insure. But those issues have become less important as central banks have pushed interest rates to nearly zero, reducing the yields on currencies.

 

Barrick founder sets no limits on gold price - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f4375ee-0c07-11...00779fd2ac.html

 

Barrick founder sets no limits on gold price

 

By William MacNamara

 

Published: March 8 2009 17:42 | Last updated: March 8 2009 17:42

 

Peter Munk, founder and chairman of the world’s biggest gold miner, says even now he is no “gold bug”. In a career spanning 60 years, the 82-year-old entrepreneur amassed fortunes in hi-fi consoles and a south Pacific hotel chain before turning to gold mining. A mystical belief in the metal’s value is irrelevant when it quite obviously rises and falls like anything else, he says.

 

But in his role at Barrick Gold, the Canadian miner, he sits atop the industry at a moment of vindication for diehard gold bugs. Inflation expectations and a fearful impulse toward bullion hoarding have pushed the gold price to sustained levels above $900 an ounce.

 

Peter Munk: 'a feeling of insecurity is here to stay'

 

Sitting in the London offices of UBS, he says: “One used to think that UBS shares were among the safest investments one could possibly make.” Billions of dollars have been wiped out on such assumptions, he says.

 

“Is there anywhere else people can put their money and not lose it? On this question I have had more phone calls in the past six months than ever before – from people who have $120,000 inherited from their grandmother, and from hedge fund managers with millions. I am not saying George Soros, but people of that calibre have told me they are investing in gold.”

 

He acknowledges that the gold price – which breached $1,000 an ounce last month – might be inflated. The pile-in for government bonds and gold may be characterised by the same herd mentality that saw investors snap up equities then dump them last year.

 

If it is possible that the gold price is too high, “equally possible is the opposite”, he says.

 

“Gold is a small market, susceptible to small moves. Let’s say a small percentage of the world’s central banks – or simply the United Arab Emirates, by itself – do not believe President [barack] Obama’s pledge that he will halve the US deficit by the end of his first term. They shift some of their dollar reserves into gold. It would not take many decisions of this kind to push the price above $2,000 per ounce.”

 

More important, he says, the global economy will recover but individual investors have been traumatised. “A feeling of insecurity is here to stay. The result is that the appeal of gold as a hedge has broadened enormously.”

 

When markets do recover, he adds, so will jewellery demand, the largest component of gold demand.

 

If the gold price has found a new floor at about $800 an ounce, Barrick and other big gold miners stand to see a surge in revenues this year. This has led to speculation that gold mining companies – somewhat like Chinese mining companies – could snap up other assets inexpensively and become more diversified miners.

 

“Base metals are uppermost in the minds of the two or three leading gold companies,” Mr Munk says. But diversification is “interesting but not a reality for Barrick”.

 

Shareholders pay a premium for pure gold companies precisely because they are a proxy for the metal, whose value does not track industrial cycles with the precision of industrial metals such as nickel.

 

Strained gold supplies are another compelling argument for a high gold price in the future, Mr Munk says. Existing mines are ageing and becoming more expensive as they are forced to go deeper.

 

He and friends Nathaniel Rothschild and Oleg Deripaska are developing the Mediterranean’s largest super-yacht marina, a half-billion dollar project on the site of a former naval base in Montenegro.

 

He rejects any criticism of the timing. “If the current elite goes bust, it will simply be replaced by a new elite, who will buy their boats. Look around Davos this year. So Goldman Sachs cancels their dinner party. In its place, a Kazakh company has a dinner party.”

 

Suki Cooper of Barclays Capital on haven-sent gains for gold - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebcc1cda-07d2-11...00779fd2ac.html

 

To be published live from 2pm on Monday, March 9.

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You do realise that gold averaged $675 in January 1980 when gold hit it's 1-day peak of $850. Using the following calculator gives the inflation adjusted values:

 

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/

 

$675 in January 1980 would be $1789 today

 

$850 on 21 January 1980 would be $2253 today

 

How many people actually sold their gold on the 21 January for the absolute peak price?........ not many so this figure is totally useless - at best you would probably have sold for the monthly average since you are likely to 'average out' at a top in the same way as you 'average in' at a bottom.

 

So the achievable gold peak price in January 1980 was really about $1800 in todays terms - I find it really really hard to understand how some people think gold is likely to go to anything like $10,000. They are complete nutters, end of - I'm interested in rational arguments about what gold is likely to go to. So allowing for a peak in maybe 5/6 years time with 1/2 more years of very low inflation and 3/4/5 years of higher inflation (possibly much higher) then $3,500 is a possible target, but $10,000 - forget it!.

 

Ta for posting the chart btw

 

Your post prompted me to finally get round to doing this:

 

How CPI Fiddling Robs You of Reality & What it means for the Real Gold Price

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6180

 

I hope you find that interesting :D

As far as I know that's the first Real CPI adjusted gold chart.

 

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