Jump to content

Recommended Posts

...actually no: its the dollar went down early in the day.

 

I think it will take a few days/weeks, but people will start to understand the QE makes each existing pound less valuable, and they'll start selling Sterling assets.

 

I therefore predict near parity with the dollar sometime this year, so long as the USD remains a safe haven and doesn't suffer its own downfall before that.

I love getting it right :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 30.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • G0ldfinger

    2616

  • romans holiday

    2235

  • drbubb

    1478

  • Steve Netwriter

    1449

This is great because I wanted to buy tomorrow. However, I wanted to buy silver, and it has held up better than usual. :)

My Shiny new silver eagles arrived today. I noticed they were more than a pound each more expensive this morning than they were last week.. :blink:

Not worried at all re gold, price is irrelevant at sub-1000 pounds - but fascinating!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just received an interesting e-mail from GM:

 

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

 

G O L D M O N E Y A N N O U N C E M E N T

 

GoldMoney Launches iPhone Exchange Application

 

Dear Sir/Madam,

 

Software developer Concentric Sky and GoldMoney have teamed up to develop an application for the iPhone that allows GoldMoney customers quickly and easily to exchange gold and silver bullion online, regardless of their location. This groundbreaking mobile payment application means any individual or merchant could open up an account with GoldMoney online and then receive a payment in gold or silver bullion within minutes.

 

The application is one of the first electronic finance software programs that has been written for the iPhone, and the first mobile application that allows the direct exchange of bullion between individuals and businesses.

 

The GoldMoney iPhone exchange application is available for purchase and download through Apple's iTunes app store for US$9.99. GoldMoney is offering customers a three-month free trial period, during which time all payment fees for payments made by the iPhone will be waived. Further, all payment fees for iPhone payments will be reduced by 25% from the standard pricing for the subsequent nine months after the three-month free trial period ends.

 

The GoldMoney iPhone exchange application is available for purchase and download through Apple's iTunes app store:

http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore...294641&mt=8

 

Kind regards,

GoldMoney Customer Support

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Should have also said that if we really are in a deflationary period and end up going Japanese then perhaps gold will just steadily keep increasing year after year with no serious correction like we had in the inflationary mid-70's. I definitely can't see the stockmarket bouncing back to it's previous highs in the way it did back then - it's looking really ugly for this year and next so I'm finding it hard to believe any SM rally is going to pull much money out of bonds, gold and cash sitting on the sidelines.

 

I've seen you explain this train of thought in several posts. A gradual increase in POG seems unlikely to me. I accept that the 1970s was not deflationary.

 

However, I also think that whilst the headliners will explain that it is deflationary now, inflation will creep in next year and then set well in thereafter.

 

At that time POG will start on the mania phase IMO and we could see the parabolic pattern which you think will not occur.

 

Therefore we can conclude that you believe we will not encounter inflation and that it is not on the menu for the next 5-6 years (I think you cite 2014-2015 before the peak in POG.)

 

Secondly, I just can't see a gradual movement upwards because of the speculative nature of price movements. Gold over the next 5 years will only end up in another bubble, like any other asset class, or commodity, currency.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Secondly, I just can't see a gradual movement upwards because of the speculative nature of price movements. Gold over the next 5 years will only end up in another bubble, like any other asset class, or commodity, currency.

 

I don't know, it's just an idea - no one knows what will happen as Japan pumped out loads of money and still had deflation for over a decade. There's no guarantee it will work if there is a fundamental shift in attitudes from spending to saving and paying down debts. Do people still have the stomach for more bubbles where they could once again lose a lot of money or are they going to just be more content with what they already have and be thankful they have a job?

 

We've had 2 severe stockmarket crashes with 50% plus declines along with the worst housing crash in living memory. We've also had the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression with many banks failing and all this has happened in less than 10 years!....... Those who have had their lives ruined and pensions/savings decimated or have seen it happen to others are going to be very wary of participating in another bubble, whatever it is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you're ignoring the fact western culture is infested with GREED. Something that I don't think you could apply to Japanese culture. Perhaps a gross generalisation.... well it is... I'll get my coat...

 

No, you are right - we didn't learn the lessons fron the early 70's house price bubble and secondary banking crisis so went on to repeat the mistakes 18 years later with an even bigger house price crash. Everyone thought that was it - we had learnt our lesson and it wouldn't happen again, but once we got to the late 90's you could see it all just starting again and then the denial kicked in. Different people were in charge and the temptation to make quick easy money on the property merry-go-round came back. The lesson clearly wasn't hard enough and didn't leave a big enough scar on the psyche of people so as not to repeat the mistakes again.

 

That is why we are here, the big one - the mother of all crashes like 1930's US and 1990's Japan. We will probably learn more lessons from this one and things will never be quite the same for decades to come - the UK and US will be unable to have such debt fueled ponzi schemes for some time to come as the both countries will be burdened with debt for a generation just like the UK was after the second world war. We've got debt that is equal to having fought a major war and it will take a generation to be paid off.

 

We are going to enter a different era of higher taxes and lower living standards as the East takes more of our jobs and our birth rate declines yet further whilst we continue to live for longer. Our imports will become more and more expensive as our currency loses further value which is why it is important to be hedged with gold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, you are right - we didn't learn the lessons fron the early 70's house price bubble and secondary banking crisis so went on to repeat the mistakes 18 years later with an even bigger house price crash. Everyone thought that was it - we had learnt our lesson and it wouldn't happen again, but once we got to the late 90's you could see it all just starting again and then the denial kicked in. Different people were in charge and the temptation to make quick easy money on the property merry-go-round came back.

 

Hell, I've stepped into HPC by mistake.

 

Could have sworn I'd hit the GEI button..... I'm having more & more senior moments........oh dear oh dear...... :(

 

;)

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got my crayons out again...

 

wqpyyg.png

 

I think today will be a key day for gold.

 

If the triangle on the right hand side gets filled then we are going to the moon! This is like deja-vu for me as per the triangle on the left hand side.

 

However, I don't think the PPT would like this to happen. They will be pushing us down (and through?) the support levels below the triangle.

 

The little black boxes have had their SELL orders served: http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?...cials&TYP=S

 

So now we Gold Bulls need to weather this storm, and remember why we bought gold in the first place.

 

The truth will out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would certainly appear as though gold has gone nowhere over the past six weeks.

 

That's because bullion closed Monday less than 1% higher than where it stood in late January.

 

But, from another perspective, one that focuses on changes in the consensus mood among gold traders, a lot has happened over the past six weeks. And, on balance, these developments on the sentiment front are bullish for gold, according to contrarian analysis.

 

Consider the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Monday night, the HGNSI stood at 36.8%.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...amp;siteid=nbsh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would certainly appear as though gold has gone nowhere over the past six weeks.

 

That's because bullion closed Monday less than 1% higher than where it stood in late January.

 

But, from another perspective, one that focuses on changes in the consensus mood among gold traders, a lot has happened over the past six weeks. And, on balance, these developments on the sentiment front are bullish for gold, according to contrarian analysis.

Volatility fatigue? :rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...