GOLD

[enrieb]

News reports are talking about the huge surge in stocks like its VE day or something, going from 7 ounces to the dow up to 7.7 ounces to the dow shows just how low expectations are in the markets.

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

and I've just looked at Dan Norcini's latest chart (and Mish's), and realised he didn't spot that we should be drawing curves either !

Hence the slight error.

 

This is my latest:

 

 

do you still think the trend should be curved

 

apols for my poor effort -

 

 

 

If you go in for this ta stuff, then this is a buy time surely?

 

Personally, I wouldn't base my decision to buy on ta, however, if we are to see a bear market rally, the next few days will hopefully give us some idea as to whether gold will go along for the ride or not

[romans holiday]

do you still think the trend should be curved

 

apols for my poor effort -

 

 

 

If you go in for this ta stuff, then this is a buy time surely?

 

Personally, I wouldn't base my decision to buy on ta, however, if we are to see a bear market rally, the next few days will hopefully give us some idea as to whether gold will go along for the ride or not

I am coming around to TA these days but I think most of it is done with too short a time frame. If you look too closely at the short term price of gold it can get disorientating. On the other hand, if you stand back and look at the medium term you can get a better perspective on it. You can then also combine fundamentals and market psychology here to help with your technical analysis. But then I guess that makes me undisciplined and a non-purist from a technical perspective.

 

I think we are on the downturn and could be looking at another cup pattern... possibly wider and deeper. If the rally in the market holds the downturn should be confirmed.

[ologhai]

I am coming around to TA these days but I think most of it is done with too short a time frame. If you look too closely at the short term price of gold it can get disorientating. On the other hand, if you stand back and look at the medium term you can get a better perspective on it. You can then also combine fundamentals and market psychology here to help with your technical analysis. But then I guess that makes me undisciplined and a non-purist from a technical perspective.

 

I think we are on the downturn and could be looking at another cup pattern... possibly wider and deeper. If the rally in the market holds the downturn should be confirmed.

 

As ever, I'm aware of how inclined the human mind seems to be to look for (and find) patterns whether they're there or not.

 

It's quite common for charts to be posted on here with trend lines and support lines (and other more complicated patterns) marked out, not always because of some underlying formula, but just because a human mind thinks it's found a pattern and has joined the dots -- as though they're the only lines that could've been drawn through those particular dots[1].

 

It feels a bit like if you gave a constellation of stars to a number of cultures, and find out later whether they made it into a bear, or a chariot, or hunter with a spear. And that constellation itself is all of those things, and none of them.

 

TA on short timescales may work like a dream, but I've not yet seen it demonstrated to do so. It feels a bit like predicting whether it'll rain or not a week on Tuesday. However, when I see charts on long timescales and watch repeating cycles (and that have repeated several times over), it starts to feel a bit more like saying that it'll be summer time in the northern hemisphere two years next July. It's then, over the long timescales, that I think looking at charts may really have something to reveal, but of course it's only for people taking the long-term view.

 

Anyway, I remain agnostic about short-term TA, but still interested to see people's best guesses at what patterns they can see!

 

[1] I don't dismiss those charts -- I take them onboard as a possible point of view about what's coming next -- but as they seem to turn out to be just as often wrong as right, it's only part of a mosaic of things (including fundamentals) that I would try to use to work out where things are heading.

[Mr Pipples]

As ever, I'm aware of how inclined the human mind seems to be to look for (and find) patterns whether they're there or not.

 

It's quite common for charts to be posted on here with trend lines and support lines (and other more complicated patterns) marked out, not always because of some underlying formula, but just because a human mind thinks it's found a pattern and has joined the dots -- as though they're the only lines that could've been drawn through those particular dots[1].

 

It feels a bit like if you gave a constellation of stars to a number of cultures, and find out later whether they made it into a bear, or a chariot, or hunter with a spear. And that constellation itself is all of those things, and none of them.

 

TA on short timescales may work like a dream, but I've not yet seen it demonstrated to do so. It feels a bit like predicting whether it'll rain or not a week on Tuesday. However, when I see charts on long timescales and watch repeating cycles (and that have repeated several times over), it starts to feel a bit more like saying that it'll be summer time in the northern hemisphere two years next July. It's then, over the long timescales, that I think looking at charts may really have something to reveal, but of course it's only for people taking the long-term view.

 

Anyway, I remain agnostic about short-term TA, but still interested to see people's best guesses at what patterns they can see!

 

[1] I don't dismiss those charts -- I take them onboard as a possible point of view about what's coming next -- but as they seem to turn out to be just as often wrong as right, it's only part of a mosaic of things (including fundamentals) that I would try to use to work out where things are heading.

Yep to all that... Thing is with the various kinds of TA, a main reason for me to pay attention to it, comes from that I think it is self-generating/perpetuating to a large degree - what with all the hedge fund black boxes following TA algorithms and technical traders influence, etc. on stocks and markets. TA seems like guessing on a guessing game.

[FWIW]

Sure - fiat is toast!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

But that's exactly why we're going to put it ALL into a house/home (i.e. a real asset that will hold its value if we buy when prices are down, and a place to live where kids can develop a sense of belonging )

 

For the record: This brings the BigT Family's cash/bond holdings to 47% of our wealth, whilst 3% remains in PMs, 10% is in oil/energy investments, and 40% is in rental properties we hold in Switzerland (where a house price boom didn't yet happen ...but soon will [a story for another day]) ...plus Mrs BigT has given me permission to 'maybe' play with 5% (from the cash portion) in further oil/energy trades

 

I would NOT EVER hold fiat long term, unless its earning interest to balance a fiat debt on a real asset (mortgage), which thereby lets me play the forex market whilst not actually having a net cash holding

 

Good luck BigT. You sound like you have a very good moral compass. I hope you keep posting to stay in touch.

 

Regards,

 

fwiw

[POTATOES]

I was very skeptical about Elliot wave theory. But, the only analysts who accurately called the last hard gold correction were the Elliot wave boys, ( and cgnao the day before the sell off). I still think there's a little too much post rationalizing when things don't turn out as predicted, but hey, that's human nature.

[LauraB]

This is definitely GEI - if you need HPC then here's the link

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1730468

 

 

"need HPC" !

 

Catflap, I took that as the gravest insult

 

...... until I realised you were referring to the only thread worth viewing over there

 

___________________________

 

I still don't see how the paper manipulaters will lose control for a few years yet, so I did a half 'bigT' last week when gold was riding high in Euros. I was trusting my feelings which seems as good a system as any these days. Being a novice I was resisting selling but now wish I had been brave enough to sell all. (Though it is easier for me to be brave due to advancing years).

 

Good luck bigT, I will miss your angle on events ............. or maybe you wont be far away from here after all?

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

do you still think the trend should be curved

 

I think I've just proved that "they" read my posts, and manipulate the gold price just to upset my charts :lol:

 

This is how I think t works:

 

1. Traders follows the news, and react to it. That creates impulses (sudden changes), and changes of direction.

 

2. Between news items, many traders use TA to try and out-guess other traders. Because they draw trends, watch the MAs etc etc, trading tends to react at those obvious points.

 

Because the news is unpredictable, a TA trend can be disrupted at any time. So IMO any prediction has to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Specially any of mine

 

Personally, I do the short-term charts for fun, and to possibly give people wanting to buy some ideas of best times, and warn about potentially bad times to buy.

My serious work is on the long-term trends, and whether a long-term trend is likely to end.

 

I think it's the opposite to weather forecasting. Long-term is more predictable.

 

[Steve Netwriter]

I still don't see how the paper manipulaters will lose control for a few years yet, so I did a half 'bigT' last week when gold was riding high in Euros. I was trusting my feelings which seems as good a system as any these days. Being a novice I was resisting selling but now wish I had been brave enough to sell all. (Though it is easier for me to be brave due to advancing years).

 

Oh dear, I get the impression we're getting one of those negative gold periods. The sort that build, and reach a top just as the gold price starts up.

Time to start averaging in then

 

[romans holiday]

I think I've just proved that "they" read my posts, and manipulate the gold price just to upset my charts :lol:

 

This is how I think t works:

 

1. Traders follows the news, and react to it. That creates impulses (sudden changes), and changes of direction.

 

2. Between news items, many traders use TA to try and out-guess other traders. Because they draw trends, watch the MAs etc etc, trading tends to react at those obvious points.

 

Because the news is unpredictable, a TA trend can be disrupted at any time. So IMO any prediction has to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Specially any of mine

 

Personally, I do the short-term charts for fun, and to possibly give people wanting to buy some ideas of best times, and warn about potentially bad times to buy.

My serious work is on the long-term trends, and whether a long-term trend is likely to end.

 

I think it's the opposite to weather forecasting. Long-term is more predictable.

Yes, kind of agree with the view that trying to guess the short term moves is essentially gambling... though I would add entertaining to watch. I also enjoy following your long term charts and trends which are more firmly based on fundamentals.

 

I am thinking of trying my hand in the next few months at a not so technical analysis of the medium term and try to predict when might be good times to buy and sell with an eye to trading a little. I see the medium term predictions as speculative in contrast to the outright gambling nature of the short term predictions. I am thinking a thread on this site would be helpful in keeping a record of my ramblings and speculations on this trade which would I hope also invite comments from readers.

[LauraB]

Have I been labelled 'herd' Steve?

[Pixel8r]

Oh dear, I get the impression we're getting one of those negative gold periods. The sort that build, and reach a top just as the gold price starts up.

Time to start averaging in then

I agree, this is a long long way from over. Things seem to be lining up for a dead cat bounce in property and the illusion of a return to normal.

 

I plan on holding gold & silver for at least another 3 years, I can't think of anything I would rather be in during the coming time.

 

Keep the faith goldbugs

 

 

[bitbigt]

I agree, this is a long long way from over. Things seem to be lining up for a dead cat bounce in property and the illusion of a return to normal.

 

I plan on holding gold & silver for at least another 3 years, I can't think of anything I would rather be in during the coming time.

 

Keep the faith goldbugs

In case my selling up has encouraged this emerging negativity on gold, let me strongly re-emphasize:

 

- I sold because I want to buy a house in ~1 year from now, and didn't want to risk my doubled investment any further. House prices WILL fall much further in next year, and probably more beyond that as well.

 

- I am 200% sure there will be a global inflation problem in next several years, and gold price will take off accordingly.

 

- I suspect there will be a bear market rally in stocks and a drop in gold price these next few months (as there was in the 70's), presenting a buying opportunity

 

As Pixel8r says: Keep the faith goldbugs

[chazza]

Yup that sort of fall happening for a lot of gold/silver producers...

 

I'm looking at:

 

SSRI - Silver Standard -13.49%

SLW - Silver Wheaton -13.57%

GG - Goldcorp -10.62%

AUY - Yamana -14.14%

 

Long term i'm still thinking PM's will rocket so i'm hoping these all pull back a little more before people start recognising inflation is incoming.

 

Yes, I'm waiting to re-allocate a small amount back in. Thinking we get a correction of the trend (underway) and the hoping the stocks reassert their +ive momentum.

[FWIW]

Fellow CIGA's,

 

We are building a base. We need strong foundations before the next leg up.

 

This is all expected, and a great time to accumulate our 'precious' at knock down prices.

 

What we have here is in the SM is a bull trap, as Dom has said in MoneyWeek email.

 

Regards,

 

fwiw

[romans holiday]

Fellow CIGA's,

 

We are building a base. We need strong foundations before the next leg up.

 

This is all expected, and a great time to accumulate our 'precious' at knock down prices.

 

What we have here is in the SM is a bull trap, as Dom has said in MoneyWeek email.

 

Regards,

 

fwiw

Don't you mean a bear trap? To catch the bears... though it could also become a "bull" trap if it is low and wide enough.

 

Those who have constantly thought that gold could at any moment go to the moon may well get demoralized if gold slumps for a long period of time. It might fail to fit into the hyperinflationary story. More realistic expectations are required to weather the downturns that should come in this gold bull.

[Pixel8r]

Don't you mean a bear trap? To catch the bears... though it could also become a bull trap if it is low and wide enough.

 

Those who have constantly thought that gold could at any moment go to the moon may well get demoralized if gold slumps for a long period of time. It might fail to fit in with the hyperinflationary story. More realistic expectations are required to weather the downturns that should come in this gold bull.

I am quite sure he means bull trap, look at the chart below;

 

 

[romans holiday]

This is interesting. I am looking at that chart. We must be looking at different stages!

 

I think we are just at the beginning... at the run up well before it goes mainstream. That is a bear trap on that chart where many get cold feet and bail out as the price of the asset falls away and people become bearish. The bear trap traps misguided bears.

 

Isn't the bull trap the one where people fail to exit at the right time; when the market really is in a bear? The bull trap traps misguided bulls.

 

Do you think we have seen the manic phase?

[electroweak]

This is interesting. I am looking at that chart. We must be looking at different stages!

 

I think we are just at the beginning... at the run up well before it goes mainstream. That is a bear trap on that chart where many get cold feet and bail out as the price of the asset falls away and people become bearish. The bear trap traps misguided bears.

 

Isn't the bull trap the one where people fail to exit at the right time; when the market really is in a bear? The bull trap traps misguided bulls.

 

but FWIW said:

What we have here is in the SM is a bull trap, as Dom has said in MoneyWeek email.

 

so I think you both mean the same thing in terms of POG...but this comment was about stocks, I think

[romans holiday]

but FWIW said:

What we have here is in the SM is a bull trap, as Dom has said in MoneyWeek email.

 

so I think you both mean the same thing in terms of POG...but this comment was about stocks, I think

Oh right, yeah this stock rally looks like a sucker rally alright... if it gains traction it will suck a bit out of gold.

[FWIW]

but FWIW said:

What we have here is in the SM is a bull trap, as Dom has said in MoneyWeek email.

 

so I think you both mean the same thing in terms of POG...but this comment was about stocks, I think

 

Yes we are all on the same page!!!

 

I was indeed talking about Stock Market. Please read this http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...hart-14664.aspx for actual context.

 

I don't like talking about gold as if it is in a bubble, because I believe gold is the mother of all bubbles and should never be popped. It is the ultimate bubble because there is infinite demand for people to be rich via greed. Everything else should never become a bubble if we stick to this rule.

 

However, having said that I cannot ignore the fact that we are on a fiat standard. Therefore, if people want to think of this as the bear trap and then all is well. Just don't think that the later stages will 100% happen. By then we should be back onto a gold/silver standard as the global fiat experiment will be truly over. Gold will be the constant in an ever changing world. Poor people will have a chance to get rich and rich people can get poor. Equality at long last.

 

 

 

 

[warpig]

Don't worry we are all free thinking individuals here, nothing has changed my mind on the matter. Good luck with your plan.

 

In case my selling up has encouraged this emerging negativity on gold

[Icarus]

He he he! I feel for the poor suckers buying in now.

 

'The recession is over! Sell your gold and buy stocks!'

 

 

 

 

 

[bitbigt]

Don't worry we are all free thinking individuals here, nothing has changed my mind on the matter. Good luck with your plan.

Thanks!

 

I'm still going to keep watching prices, and judging the market - even though I now have only a little skin in the game.

 

Regarding bear trap...

- are we deep in the valley of that trap, or just part way along the downward slope? [i think the latter]

- how long until we start on the next upleg? [i think it could be many months away, if stocks have a significant bear market rally]

- how high up will the final 'mania' leg be ALLOWED to go by the PPT [i think they have more control that any of us would like to admit]

 

Gold should already be at USD 1500-2000 if everything worked out fairly and logically, but it doesn't

 

[PS. I'm already missing my gold investment, and starting to wonder if I shouldn't buy a smaller house and buy some of my recent profits back in at the base of the bull trap!!!]