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THIS BREAKOUT in stocks,

will pull down Gold and gold shares IMHO.

 

I see it going on for MANY more days, and may take SPX up to 1,000 potentiallly.

We nailed the timing on the recent GEI conference call. Pity more here were not involved.

 

DOW=7,323 is a brick wall.

 

Trade accordingly.

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Is it not really bullish that gold has rallied today along with stocks?

 

A contrarian might take it as a warning bearish signal to sell since it's doing the opposite of what you would expect. This happened in December 1974 when the Dow made it's final low on Friday 6th and gold made a new high 3 weeks later on Friday 27th and Monday 30th.

 

If the bottom in stocks was Monday 9th this week then I think it's possible gold could go higher whilst the market decides what direction it's moving in as everything is at a crossroads right now. So gold could still make a new high if stocks begin an early rally although you wonder with the information at the touch of a fingertip these days compared to 1974 and the use of TA whether the same thing would still happen.

 

 

Now or Never. Face The Gold Cliff & Buy - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_...n_s_031109.html

 

 

Worth a read.

 

Thanks, excellent article - puts all those stories into perspective and how they are done to get people buying at a short-term peak. When you read these predictions of $2000 gold for 2009 you wonder how many people are believing it - the prices people are paying on Ebay and the number of bids each lot is getting is amazing.

 

I think he got a little carried away right at the very end :rolleyes:

 

46. As gold does a potential ten bagger to $10,000 an ounce, the junior gold stocks could rise a hundred fold. I'm serious.

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THIS BREAKOUT in stocks,

will pull down Gold and gold shares IMHO.

 

I see it going on for MANY more days, and may take SPX up to 1,000 potentiallly.

We nailed the timing on the recent GEI conference call. Pity more here were not involved.

 

Great that you predicted and caught it, but did you put your money there?

I would be hard pressed to place mine in any bear market rally.

 

I was also hoping to make the conference, but work called. I do appreciate your efforts.

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THIS BREAKOUT in stocks,

will pull down Gold and gold shares IMHO.

 

I see it going on for MANY more days, and may take SPX up to 1,000 potentiallly.

We nailed the timing on the recent GEI conference call. Pity more here were not involved.

My world is turning upside down. I find myself disagreeing with DrBubb and agreeing with Ker. :blink:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=101365

 

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Gold bearishness is overwhelming even from the die-hards.

 

I feel bearish even though I took long positions this week.

 

I think the roller-coaster ride has been exhausting over the last three years and there is always the hope of the return to normal for general stocks. Gold never really outperformed.

 

There is one thing though - I will only put my money into stores of weath at the moment and I am sure this is the same for most people out there.

Now where is that? Cash, Gold, Bonds? Not the general market right now, I'm sure.

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WTF just happened?

 

5c0zew.jpg

 

 

LOL

The Swiss government openly intervened and depreciated their currency on the forex markets causing a lot of safe haven money to go to gold. No link sorry.

 

Competitive devaluation here we come....let the currency wars begin. :rolleyes:

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You guys trading gold? Good luck! :lol: :lol:

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/03/12/...news-today-136/

My Dear Friends,

 

What do you wish your estate to look like, a bag of paper or gold?

 

Gold is going to $1224 and $1650 on its way to Alf’s numbers.

 

I made my decision and it was carried in the Forbes article of 2001 found here.

 

I have not changed one cubit from 2001 - I have only added to it. I challenge anyone out there to do better trading.

 

Success comes from making a plan and working a plan within a bull market. Failure comes from the egomania that says you, the newbie, can out trade the seasoned pro of 25 years or more. This is total and complete madness.

 

As the song the Gambler sings goes, the best you can hope for is the break even. Listen to the Gambler and learn a great lesson.

 

Today the US dollar declared its intention of retesting and failing at .7200

 

Regards,

Jim

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You know what GF, I think you are right. I dabbled in a bit of trading last month. Even though I made a nice healthy profit, I just couldn't shake off that sickening feeling of the price running away from me. I can't think of a worse feeling than watching the price shoot to the sky while holding bits of paper with the queens head on it. The regular smackdowns are nothing compared to this. Sitting tight is best; our sanity isn't worth the pieces of paper we call "profit".

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The Swiss government openly intervened and depreciated their currency on the forex markets causing a lot of safe haven money to go to gold. No link sorry.

 

Competitive devaluation here we come....let the currency wars begin. :rolleyes:

From Traders Dans comments on JSMineset yesterday;

 

The big stunner of today was massive intervention by the Swiss National Bank into the Forex markets which absolutely obliterated the Franc. They caught everyone flatfooted and achieved maximum shock value. I had to double check my price quotes and the charts to make sure that they were correct as the currency simply evaporated… The last time the SNB had intervened in these markets was all the way back to 1995 or 14 years ago.

 

The Swiss cut their 3 month Libor target by 25 basis points but they also stepped into the bond market and purchased substantial amounts of Swiss franc bonds. That in combination with them buying large amounts of foreign currency is in my view what shoved gold up so sharply today. The strategy of the Swiss is pretty clear – undercut their own currency to remain export competitive especially against the Euro and the US Dollar and provide substantial amounts of liquidity in the process. While I have not yet had a chance to calculate the gold price in terms of the Swiss Franc, there is no doubt whatsoever that it shot sharply higher today. After all, it is evident that the Swiss have decided to play the “beggar thy neighbor” policy in terms of the foreign exchange arena. All of this serves to remind investors why it is an imperative in today’s environment to own gold – after all, if your Central Bank is determined to debauch your native currency, you have to protect yourself. It is that simple!

 

I can well remember when the Swissie was once the “go-to” currency when it came to a safe haven during times of economic or geo-political crisis. Obviously that is no longer the case. My how times have changed! It is going to be interesting now to watch the contest between the SNB and the speculators to see how the game is played out. Will the specs leave them alone or will they play the cat and mouse game and bid it back up to see what kind of reaction they get from the Swiss monetary authorities.

 

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I'd like to announce that the

(next Friday or Saturday's) GEI Conference

Call will focus on UK Property

 

003ec.png

Join us, if you are interested. Last Call can be heard here.

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I am possibly going to post less on golds potential in the future since it is sort of counterproductive to my own accumulation scheme. :) Still, I can't resist that one.

 

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/7719694....lsrssheadlines1

Banks were January net buyers of 1.1 million oz of gold: CPM

 

New York (Platts)--10Mar2009

 

Central banks, which have been net sellers of gold in recent years,

were net buyers of an estimated 1.1 million oz in January, according to the

latest Market Alert by the CPM Group, the New York-based metals

consultancy. The world's central banks were both buyers and sellers, but

the quantity bought outstripped what was sold.

 

Ecuador is estimated to have purchased 920,000 oz of gold in January,

Venezuela bought 240,000 oz and Russia purchased 130,000 oz, after having

bought 310,000 oz in December.

...

 

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i think this is pretty significant - there seems to be a very subtle change in attitude - gold is no longer a ridiculous relic, its starting to become a serious issue for many governments.

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I am possibly going to post less on golds potential in the future since it is sort of counterproductive to my own accumulation scheme. :)

 

Allow me to help you out:

 

'Sell every asset except gilts'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...cept-gilts.html

 

Although I can't help calling the author a right twat :lol:

 

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Allow me to help you out:

 

'Sell every asset except gilts'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...cept-gilts.html

 

Although I can't help calling the author a right twat :lol:

no words needed

 

other than id id idiot - think tuco

 

As for gold, it is the ultimate inflation hedge, since easy money provides the fuel for more people to buy it. But it is not a deflation hedge, for one simple reason. No currency is exchangeable into gold and no government is going to wreck its country's economy by adopting a gold standard.

 

This explains why the gold price perks up occasionally then always slips back again. The safest asset in the financial system is the promise of government to honour its own debt.

 

Private investors need to go with the flow. Investing in stock markets, like property, is proving singularly unrewarding at present. We believe the bear markets have much further to run before shares and property are cheap enough to buy again.

 

Since income offered by gilts is still above that earned from many bank accounts and there is a continuing flight to quality, gilt prices must go on rising until this deflation is over.

 

Investors should change to a gilt-only strategy to preserve capital and income. This way, they will have the cash to buy the bargains when stock markets offer them.

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no words needed

 

other than id id idiot - think tuco

 

Quite a read. My favourtie part of the article:

 

The safest asset in the financial system is the promise of government to honour its own debt.

 

 

:huh::lol:

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no words needed

 

other than id id idiot - think tuco

OK, he's an idiot. But consider that the market can also be idiotic at times... and that the article may "idiotically" represent how market preoccupations may develop in the near future.

 

What effect would that have on POG in the short/medium term? :)

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Martin Armstrong on gold:

 

Gold Monthly 2009 Gold has been the best performing investment on the board. It has continued to make new highs in all currencies but the dollar, but even there it is holding on like a politician in his right to control the lives of others. While production of gold was expanding dramatically going into the 1980 high of $875, today, South African production has been dropping like a stone. South Africa is no longer the leading producer in gold and just as demand is rising, the production is falling.

 

From a pure technical view, the breakout line from the 1999 low stood precisely at $718 last October, and provided the closing support. Once exceeded, it was penetrated 601 y during Sept/Oct of 2006 on a monthly closing basis and has held nicely for this '08 reaction low. This technical line moves up to about $810 by the end of 2010. Near-term, if we see a real Waterfall Effect in the Dow Jones Industrials going into June 2009 where a collapse takes place back to the 4,000 area, we may see a corresponding high or a major key turning point in gold also for June 2009. This does not appear to be the major or high, but we may see a shocking punch upward with a next thrust. If gold breaks out to new highs going into June 2009 as the now makes a major low, there could be a 5 month reaction low forming by November 2009, with a rally thereafter into about April 2011 for the intraday high, but leaving 2010 as the highest close annually. Gold would then reverse perhaps, but this may be due to Government intervention at that point in time.

 

Gold still appears to be headed to at least the $2,500 level by 2011. Exceeding that area before the end of 2009, would open the door to a potential rally even up to the $5,000 level. Please keep in mind, this is a relative forecast. That means the dollar would be little of its former self. What we are honestly talking about is the collapse of our Governmental infrastructure not so different from Russia. In plain words, Russia could no longer sustain its control of the economy because it was broke. We are approaching the same problem. Just because we have been always able to borrow and never worry about what would happen when the day comes that the well is dry, does not mean we have bottomless pit. A very minor technical projection shows resistance for gold scaling in from the 1 ,100 to 1,200 level for 2009. Breaking through this technical resistance area will signal that we are in a very serious economic implosion.

 

 

 

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/...the-lights.html

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Many of us are buying/selling gold in Sterling. Its therefore worth looking at Sterling charts, and I've found an excellent set at http://gold.approximity.com

 

I strongly suggest you all look at these 3 in particular that run from 1968 to this week:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK%20RPI_LOG.html ...shows RPI effect on currency value (actually shows how much more money you'd need each year to keep the same value), wherein a greater slope indicates a higher rate of inflation

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Gold_GBP_RPI-adj.html ...shows gold adjusted for RPI, and revealing a scary similarity between the last 3 years gold price and the early years of the 70's - when inflation was NOT high. Note a 50% drop in price then occured from current levels, over about a 2 year period, until inflation started to emerge as a real problem

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Silv...BP_RPI-adj.html ...shows how, in late 70's, the silver price skyrocketed due to an attempt to corner the market. Key point is, it was this event in the silver market that pulled the price of gold up significantly further, without which gold probaby would not have ever reached a much higher level that it has today - even with the inflation problems that were then being experienced.

 

...draw your own conclusions!

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http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Gold_GBP_RPI-adj.html ...shows gold adjusted for RPI, and revealing a scary similarity between the last 3 years gold price and the early years of the 70's - when inflation was NOT high. Note a 50% drop in price then occured from current levels, over about a 2 year period, until inflation started to emerge as a real problem

 

But that uses the official fiddled inflation figures right ?

 

Using the Real CPI numbers for the US gives a very different picture.

I've done this one. It's a little unusual because I've done it from the perspective of someone in 1980 rather than now.

Imagine you were living in 1980 and someone told you what prices were going to be. So it's in 1980 money.

 

GoldUS_CPI_RealCPI_Adjusted_090309.gif

 

There's a big difference between using the US CPI and the Real CPI.

 

I'll post the view from 2009 later.

 

 

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