bitbigt Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 But that uses the official fiddled inflation figures right ? .... Using the Real CPI numbers for the US gives a very different picture. It was about 1993 when the real fiddling of the inflation stats began in America, but regardless, my focus was on UK/Sterling. I'm not sure if or how much inflation stats fiddling hapened in the UK. My point was simply that in Sterling, gold is now at or near to its real historical peak, especially so if you consider a. we're not (yet) in a high inflation environment, and so compare with equivalent periods b. the actual historical peak was due to an anomalous jump in silvers price c. the PPT exists now, and easily has the resources to keep gold down (in USD) d. the stock market will bottom 6-9 months before the economy turns, and so we may be about there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/store..._category=10191 American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coins Production of United States Mint American Eagle Gold Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins. Currently, all available 22-karat gold blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-185 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .” The United States Mint will resume the American Eagle Gold Proof and Uncirculated Coin Programs once sufficient inventories of gold bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Gold Coin products. Additionally, as a result of the recent numismatic product portfolio analysis, fractional sizes of American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coins will no longer be produced. http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/store..._category=10191 American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coin Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. Currently, all available silver bullion blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-61 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .” The United States Mint will resume the American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coin Programs once sufficient inventories of silver bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Silver Coin products. edit -oops, just seen separate thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 It was about 1993 when the real fiddling of the inflation stats began in America, but regardless, my focus was on UK/Sterling. I'm not sure if or how much inflation stats fiddling hapened in the UK. My point was simply that in Sterling, gold is now at or near to its real historical peak, especially so if you consider a. we're not (yet) in a high inflation environment, and so compare with equivalent periods b. the actual historical peak was due to an anomalous jump in silvers price c. the PPT exists now, and easily has the resources to keep gold down (in USD) d. the stock market will bottom 6-9 months before the economy turns, and so we may be about there But what if China starts to diversify it massive holdings of US debt into gold, surely that would take away the PPTs powers? I believe that we are far from seeing the eventual bottom in this, dead cat bounce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpTheKhyber Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 Approximity's graph of gold vs average GBP wage would be a better measure of affordability / fair value, and where we might be in the relatively overvalued/undervalued cyle, than RPI adjusted price of gold in GBP i'd have thought: http://gold.approximity.com/UK_wages_manuf...g_since1963.pdf (page 2) However, I remain unconvinced that it is possible to make any meaningful comparison between the 70's / 80's and today with respect to macro-economics and the stability of many currencies. The imbalances in global trade, the debt burden built up in the consumerist countries which have driven the global boom, demographic profiles, and the lack of fat* left to cushion the impact of an economic winter, pose a significant danger that the current recession/depression will make the 70's look like a walk in the park. Using graphs from the past as a predictor of future price of gold in GBP is pointless imo; we're in unchartered waters. However, as long as HMG insist on debasing the currency, I'll take the side of the wager which believes gold will do less badly than sterling or sterling demoninated assets. (*fat = inefficiencies/resilience in supply chains, worker/management balance of power, assets vs debts on business and personal balance sheets etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 If this guys right... http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123638...glenews_barrons Basically: S&P500 down to 400 after this rally some time in the next two years. So if the Dow follows the S&P (usually does) we're looking at 4000=Dow. Seems to me there's a strong possibility of this being concomitant with a Dow/Gold ratio of 1. Hence, reasonable scenario for $4000/toz Gold. [see GF's charts on Gold/Dow] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 We often compare the current gold market with the 1970s-1980s. Does anyone know of a resource that describes in detail the events that caused the gold spike in 1980? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 We often compare the current gold market with the 1970s-1980s. Does anyone know of a resource that describes in detail the events that caused the gold spike in 1980? The silver spike was down to the Hunt brothers and some select friends, not sure how much their cornering attempt had to do with the spike in gold though. Hunt Bros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 We often compare the current gold market with the 1970s-1980s. Does anyone know of a resource that describes in detail the events that caused the gold spike in 1980? A few articles which should help: http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/gold1980.html http://www.goldprice.org/buying-gold/2008/...ce-in-1980.html http://www.safehaven.com/article-5200.htm and on CPI Adjusted Gold ( This is a must read. It says so much of what I am thinking at the moment ) http://www.zealllc.com/2006/cpigold.htm But, I disagree with the CPI adjusted charts. They are using the official CPI. I'll post my version in a minute...... Edited to add: Of course Adam Hamilton knows that. I don't want in any way to appear to be criticising him, as to me he is one of the best writers on this subject. I quote: I built a nearly 10k-row spreadsheet that melded the monthly CPI inflation data with the daily gold data to create a CPI-inflated real gold data series running back before 1970. While I am a long-time opponent of the horribly manipulated CPI since it lowballs inflation, I used it here because it is conservative and widely accepted as authoritative. While real gold would be considerably higher when using MZM or M3 money supplies as an inflation proxy, this essay would not be as credible with mainstreamers if I went that route. I understand his reasoning, but I also think it important to see the real picture, as it is significantly different to the one painted by official numbers. The more I look into this the more I realise how the picture has been "painted". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 I'm working on more Real CPI adjusted charts. I'll try and do a GoldGBP one as well. Edited to add: You'll notice that the Real CPI adjusted GoldUS$ in 1980 is about 3x the CPI adjusted price. That is consistent with a chart in Mike Maloney's book, so I have a fair amount of confidence in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 Approximity's graph of gold vs average GBP wage would be a better measure of affordability / fair value, and where we might be in the relatively overvalued/undervalued cyle, than RPI adjusted price of gold in GBP i'd have thought: http://gold.approximity.com/UK_wages_manuf...g_since1963.pdf (page 2) yes, it would be good. But that chart is not on a log axis, and so one can't directly compare the slope (salary inflation rate) over different parts of the chart. A logbased chart would like very much like the RPI chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesspeed Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 Positive for Gold once the US wake up ! http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KC17Cb02.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 There is some talk that the IMF are in URGENT need of resources, and also that they plan to print dollars. To be talked about the G20... Do we stock up on extra gold before the meeting? It sounds like they are going to spook the worlds savers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...o-buy-gold.html Twenty of 30 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Tokyo to Chicago on March 12 and March 13 advised buying gold... “In the past, people saw gold as a relic of the [old times],” says Aram Shishmanian, the chief executive of the World Gold Council in London. “Now, they are rediscovering it as a means to preserve wealth.” .... The top five global holders of gold are the US, Germany, the IMF, France and Italy. More main stream gold ramping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 ... More main stream gold ramping. Get used to it, because it could go on for a decade or so until the bull is over. Just look at property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 Get used to it, because it could go on for a decade or so until the bull is over. Just look at property. Good lord!! Did anyone else SEE THIS?! News at 10 tonight, clearest signal of gold ramping if ever i saw one. i am in no doubt news is orgastrated. 2 news stories, 1) Negative equity family, feelin porer and more house prices to crash. 2) Mini documentary on gold in southafrica, as gold can only go up. BBC! Now i am worried. I think I should sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 Good lord!! Did anyone else SEE THIS?! News at 10 tonight, clearest signal of gold ramping if ever i saw one. i am in no doubt news is orgastrated. 2 news stories, 1) Negative equity family, feelin porer and more house prices to crash. 2) Mini documentary on gold in southafrica, as gold can only go up. BBC! Now i am worried. I think I should sell. I saw it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 I saw it too I'm in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with the BBC! I'll take this as a clear signal of the intention of inflating a new bubble, gold. I am encouraged to step up the rate of acquiring more ounces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 We are still very much in the minority. I think everyone's heard they should buy some, but they haven't taken the advice. I think I should sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 We are still very much in the minority. I think everyone's heard they should buy some, but they haven't taken the advice. 100% guaranteed. Even some of the few who had bought some before have recently been seen giving it away for empty promises printed on paper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpTheKhyber Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 yes, it would be good. But that chart is not on a log axis, and so one can't directly compare the slope (salary inflation rate) over different parts of the chart. A logbased chart would like very much like the RPI chart. A log scale shouldn't really be necessary for a ratio should it? What did strike me about the wages vs gold and the rpi vs gold was they didn't look particularly out of whack with each other. I'd be interested in a wages vs rpi graph to see how well they track with each other. If wages do track RPI, then even if RPI is manipulated i'd argue it doesn't really matter if it is or not, since long term (long enough to even out leveraged price speculation) valuations of assets must surely be driven by people's ability to pay for them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupercal Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 I saw it too Who has the ability to influence the bbc and gains from ramping gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 Anyone else get the feeling £950 is coming this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 If only! Anyone else get the feeling £950 is coming this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Who has the ability to influence the bbc and gains from ramping gold. Who? EDIT: And why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 17, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Who? EDIT: And why? Lupercal needs a reason to sell. Come on, give him one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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