FWIW Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 The main point I get from that is that is almost useless looking at non-CPI adjusted stock market charts. Whether it is REALLY going up or down or staying the same depends on the prevailing price environment. Glad it's not just me then - I was having real trouble understanding that paper. Thought I was thick or sumink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 i think we could see some sustained selling today - the prevailing environment has been temporarily set for a sell off there's so much short term thinking out there at the moment - there maybe some buying opportunities in the days ahead until the latest junkies fix wares off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 i think we could see some sustained selling today - the prevailing environment has been temporarily set for a sell off there's so much short term thinking out there at the moment - there maybe some buying opportunities in the days ahead until the latest junkies fix wares off Yes, I agree. My pnf charts are telling me we could go to around 885-890. My Barclay's Bank indicator is flying high today - this is a bad sign for gold. I am thinking about getting some more GM at 900ish. If the sales last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 i think we could see some sustained selling today - the prevailing environment has been temporarily set for a sell off there's so much short term thinking out there at the moment - there maybe some buying opportunities in the days ahead until the latest junkies fix wares off yep agree with that stocks rallying gold selling maybe for a few weeks methinks will be keeping an eye on armstrongs mid 20 april turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 Yes, I agree. My pnf charts are telling me we could go to around 885-890. My Barclay's Bank indicator is flying high today - this is a bad sign for gold. I am thinking about getting some more GM at 900ish. If the sales last! was hoping to add some more last week but missed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 yep agree with that stocks rallying gold selling maybe for a few weeks methinks ...or a few months, or even a year or more ?? It was this turn of events that I feared, and which caused me to sell. The last few weeks has seen an emergence of hope on stock markets and the economy, and that confidence seems to be strengthenning not weakenning. I'll buy back in at GBP 350, as the next decade will see some terribly high inflation - globally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 ...or a few months, or even a year or more ?? It was this turn of events that I feared, and which caused me to sell. The last few weeks has seen an emergence of hope on stock markets and the economy, and that confidence seems to be strengthenning not weakenning. I'll buy back in at GBP 350, as the next decade will see some terribly high inflation - globally! bigt - i think all of that freshly acquired sterling is going to your head a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 Yes, I agree. My pnf charts are telling me we could go to around 885-890. My Barclay's Bank indicator is flying high today - this is a bad sign for gold. I am thinking about getting some more GM at 900ish. If the sales last! I am going to sit it out for a while [with trading fund]. Hope to be buying at around 800. In the coming months, renewed deflationary concerns could even drive pog lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 You're in danger of becoming a bit of a contra-indicator on here pixel8r - especially now that you're in cahoots with ker! Today is going to be crucial I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 bigt - i think all of that freshly acquired sterling is going to your head a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 We are still within the current uptrend, why are all you longtime goldbugs so bearish? The PPT and Goldman Sacs must have completed their mission in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 Today is going to be crucial I think. How crucial? Crucial enough to change your mind on the hyper-inflationary hypothesis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crucial_experiment In the sciences, an experimentum crucis, or critical experiment, is an experiment capable of decisively determining whether or not a particular hypothesis or theory is correct. In particular, such an experiment must typically be able to produce a predictable result that no established hypothesis or theory is capable of producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 How crucial? Crucial enough to change your mind on the hyper-inflationary hypothesis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crucial_experiment I don't have a hypothesis for Hyper Inflation, just sustained high inflation. There may well be hyper inflation in some parts of the world though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 Why Hasn’t Gold Caught Fire? By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1237788797.php Why the dour outlook for the intermediate term? The reason is painfully obvious: With fiscal and monetary policy more inflationary than ever in the U.S. and around the world, gold should already be trading well above $1000; but it is not. We won't dwell for long on why, since there are many plausible reasons. Suffice it to say, deflation has decimated the investment resources that institutional players might now be deploying speculatively and/or defensively in gold. Yes, we too have read about all of the cash supposedly sitting on the sidelines. We don't believe it, not at all, nor should you. It seems entirely likely that much or most of it will turn out to have been, in a manner of speaking, Bernie Madoff money. For no one should doubt that the global financial system is every bit as fragile and ephemeral as Madoff's criminal empire. His financial edifice was a Ponzi scheme through design; ours was a Ponzi scheme that we perpetrated on ourselves -- a manifestation of greed and stupidity that swelled our faith in free lunch to an epochal flood tide. === Goldbugs should therefore be neither surprised nor disappointed by bullion's failure to catch fire. They should instead take heart from the fact that gold has performed quite well relative to all other classes of investable assets and is likely to continue to do so regardless of how things play out. Concerning the big picture, we can only imagine two possible scenarios. The more likely, in our view, is that deflation will deepen until all debts have been liquidated through bankruptcy. This is the only possible outcome if fiscal and monetary nostrums continue to dribble out a "mere" trillion dollars at a time. This is nickel-and-dime stuff compared to the asset deflation occurring throughout the world. But if the slow, deflationary death this approach produces proves too painful economically and politically, then hyperinflation will at some point be employed, even if it destroys creditors and savers for a generation in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 I don't have a hypothesis for Hyper Inflation, just sustained high inflation. There may well be hyper inflation in some parts of the world though. It is all about deflation at the moment. Most inflationists are ideologically driven. In the real world and for all pragmatic purposes, deflation is in the driver's seat for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 We are still within the current uptrend, why are all you longtime goldbugs so bearish? The PPT and Goldman Sacs must have completed their mission in my view. I don't think comex trends should be relied upon too much - the manipulation tools exist and have been used previously; didn't pog go down to the $880s before the fomc announced the QE measures, only for it to gain $70 thereafter - funny that I have a simple strategy which is focused on accumulating physical especially during times of comex weakness; if we're to believe the amount of au being acquired by the etf's, then physical will stay at a premium over comex for a long time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 It is all about deflation at the moment. Inflationists are ideologically driven. In the real world and for all pragmatic purposes, deflation is in the driver's seat for now. There is no spoon deflation... 100% guaranteed by cgnao here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6310 What we have at the moment is a 'rowing' of the economy to the benefit of the few elites (who will be sh**ing themselves by now)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 bigt - i think all of that freshly acquired sterling is going to your head a bit! LOL ! ...but actually, its not gone to my head but into Mrs Bigt's bank account in Switzerland She's waiting for the Swiss Franc to drop so we can exchange the Sterling winnings and pay off her Swiss flats. In return, she's promised to pay the annual school fees from the rent she'll then clear each year. So now I'm still lumbered with needing a big mortgage to buy a house back here in Blighty in next 12 months, ...but that's OK, because when high inflation hits the debt will be diluted rapidly. In the meantime, I'm saving to buy gold again - but not until much cheaper! ...and the next set of winnings are MINE, or I'll visit the divorce lawyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 There is no spoon deflation... 100% guaranteed by cgnao here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6310 What we have at the moment is a 'rowing' of the economy to the benefit of the few elites (who will be sh**ing themselves by now)... Errr... how about massive credit/asset/debt deflation? Sure, you can always define/restrict the word deflation to mean what you want it to... but that would just be ...well, ideological. Mind you, ideologies are useful for absolute certainties. Problem is [hyper] inflationary theory predicts pog to either rocket or track steadilly upwards. This has not happened and is not likely to. Much more likely is an extended period of volatility with perhaps higher peaks and who knows also lower dips. Another theory is needed with some explanatory power to "save the appearances". The history of cosmic theories can be called, without exaggeration, a history of collective obsessions and controlled schizophrenias, and the manner in which some discoveries have been made resemble the conduct of a sleepwalker, rather than the performance of an electronic brain. —Arthur Koestler, The Sleepwalkers A central theme of The Sleepwalkers is the changing relationship between faith and reason. Koestler explores how these seemingly contradictory threads existed harmoniously in many of the greatest intellectuals of the West. He illustrates that while the two are estranged today, in the past the most ground-breaking thinkers were often very spiritual. Koestler also casts doubt on the firm beliefs that today people hold as truth without even understanding them. For instance, he says, "I am sitting on a chair made of molecules, which consist of atom, which are formed by subatomic particles, but the distance between these particles (he refers to protons, neutrons and electrons) is so huge relative to their sizes that it would be better compared to the distance between stars. So basically I am sitting on a chair made of nothing" To this point is important to note that another recurrent theme of this book is the breaking of paradigms in order to create new ones. People - scientists included - hold onto cherished old beliefs with such love and attachment that they refuse to see the wrong in their ideas and the truth in the ideas that are to replace them. "The conclusion he puts forward at the end of the book is that modern science is trying too hard to be rational. Scientists have been at their best when they allowed themselves to behave as "sleepwalkers," instead of trying too earnestly to ratiocinate."[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sleepwalkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 LOL ! ...but actually, its not gone to my head but into Mrs Bigt's bank account in Switzerland She's waiting for the Swiss Franc to drop so we can exchange the Sterling winnings and pay off her Swiss flats. In return, she's promised to pay the annual school fees from the rent she'll then clear each year. So now I'm still lumbered with needing a big mortgage to buy a house back here in Blighty in next 12 months, ...but that's OK, because when high inflation hits the debt will be diluted rapidly. In the meantime, I'm saving to buy gold again - but not until much cheaper! ...and the next set of winnings are MINE, or I'll visit the divorce lawyer hey take heart, knopfler knows best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 well, inflation (real inflation) is still going up and now we have started printing money - how can anybody think gold is going to go down?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 Errr... how about massive credit/asset/debt deflation? Sure, you can always define/restrict the word deflation to mean what you want it to... but that would just be ...well, ideological. Mind you, ideologies are useful for absolute certainties. Problem is [hyper] inflationary theory predicts pog to either rocket or track steadilly upwards. This has not happened and is not likely to. Much more likely is an extended period of volatility with perhaps higher peaks and who knows also lower dips. Another theory is needed with some explanatory power to "save the appearances". The POG does not determine whether we have an increasing money supply or a decreasing money supply! Meanwhile, in the real world we see things like this: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/24...ing-for-mervyn/ So you tell me; are we increasing money supply or not? Also I hear Merv loves this song: From: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 Merv the swerve's letter here: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypol...etter090324.pdf Notice how he wants to increase the money supply... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 The POG does not determine whether we have an increasing money supply or a decreasing money supply! The converse is also true; money supply does not determine whether we have an increasing or decreasing pog. There are a lot of other factors involved... which are deflationary. Don't get me wrong, I think pog will ultimately perform... just not so quickly, easily and fantastically. Adding to the Dire Straits collection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 The converse is also true; money supply does not determine whether we have an increasing or decreasing pog. There are a lot of other factors involved... which are deflationary. Don't get me wrong, I think pog will ultimately perform... just not so quickly, easily and fantastically. Adding to the Dire Straits collection: buy it, and hope it doesn't perform at least to some extent (that must sound a bit crazy!). I am still fairly young and the rest of my life I'd like my earnings to be worth something. Gold is my hedge. I am not in this for a quick profit. EDIT and I still dont have by far enough gold - can one ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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