Jump to content

Recommended Posts

(From the New Libran Strategy thread):

 

Funny, I was thinking about starting a thread on how to deal with deflation. I know many on the forum see inflation medium term - but what if they are wrong? (Let's not debate that quastion again please.)

 

I think we can have both, but not at the same time.

Maybe even, the market will become "disturbed and bipolar" and swing back and forth between a

focus on each, in turns. Until prices finally breakout in one direction.

 

This chop, chop, chop can "erode a portfolio down" towards nothing, if you aren't careful.

 

I want a big enough strategy that can allow both extremes, until the breakout is clear.

My present thinking is we will see a serious "whiff of deflation", which will cause the UK government to

panic, and then go into full-blown QE, pushing it into "the foothills of hyperinflation". This seems to

be happening already. But a bigger deflation scare is need first. The US may get there first (into

the deflation scare that is), or the UK may take off towards high inflation, from whence it is.

 

Gold, I'm still holding 15% even after selling off.

But what about bonds?

Short-term treasury bills (or gilts) is the Prechter recommendation. But what is the best way of buying them? And when?

There is an i-shares ETF IGLS (0-5 year UK gilts). What other vehicles exist?

 

In case you havent noticed, I am preparing to get serious about gold investing (at last)

I hope to develop Goldstock.co.uk, as a valuable resource for Gold and Gold etf investors,

and I am already starting to put my research on Gold etfs onto the sister thread here, which is:

 

xxxxpz.gif

Goldstock.co.uk - Charts & links : Gold related,

Developing the website

 

Please have a look, and post any ideas. Should I talk about Bond etfs there too??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In case you havent noticed, I am preparing to get serious about gold investing (at last)

I hope to develop Goldstock.co.uk, as a valuable resource for Gold and Gold etf investors,

and I am already starting to put my research on Gold etfs onto the sister thread here, which is:

 

xxxxpz.gif

Goldstock.co.uk - Charts & links : Gold related,

Developing the website

 

Please have a look, and post any ideas. Should I talk about Bond etfs there too??

Do you now own/run Goldstock.co.uk?

Last I heard it was owned by someone else who was looking for yourself and GEI to help develop it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There must be more to that story than meets the eye.

 

My thoughts exactly - if we do the maths then 30,000 Oz pa = ~$28m

Even if it was costing you $800 per Oz with ALL on costs to get it out ($24m) you'd be making $4m pa.

 

Perhaps the real reason is the companies financing and now they can't get re-financed - hence the fire sale - but you get to service the debt with that as well ;)

 

Long and strong - we beat ourselves up in the downtrends/consolidations last year - unless your trading - sit tight :rolleyes:

 

SafeBetter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Seasonal pattern is followed (can we be so lucky?)...

 

Then the ideal buying window would be late July or late August

 

xxxe.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you now own/run Goldstock.co.uk?

Last I heard it was owned by someone else who was looking for yourself and GEI to help develop it.

 

I do have a stake. But I keep it separate from GEI, as an activity

 

I think it can compliment GEI, by focussing on Gold related etfs, Dynamic charts, and

with Links that will be useful to GEI posters

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know if anyone else has done this

 

blow.jpg

Larger http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_szcRIfzGg8U/Sk63...1600-h/blow.jpg

 

We could be at the start of a parabolic rise, right now...

 

For comparison a log-chart:

 

Gold_USD_LOG.png

 

Conclusion: Gold has risen much less 'parabolic' so far than during the 70s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... So are people giving up on the idea that the average UK house will at some point, in the next 5 years, be below 100 ounces - or that the DJIA will equal 1 ounce.

:blink: No way, Jose!

 

...

There's a not so outside chance that those ratios will go to extremes never seen before: like house 60 oz and doe/gold well below 1.0.

...

+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

60day.gif

 

Gold looks like it wants to bump along at around 920 here. Will be interesting to see how low it can go. I think a lot will be lining up to buy around 900 which should put a solid floor under it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thought Id add a little anecdotal: was speaking to a chinaman (tiawanese actually) in the pub who said he worked in the financial sector.

 

He mentioned that the chinese government were buying gold - from the IMF and from internal markets. They weren't buying on the international markets because they don't want the price to rise. He said the chinese government were making the move out of treasuries to a degree - but certaintly weren;t looking to rock the boat with the americans.

 

Would have talked more but I was more interested in getting a smoke in before the karaoke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GOLD /GLD : Break or Bounce ?

zzz1.gif

 

I looks like: Break !

Gold is down almost $10, with Oil and stocks also under pressure

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was thinking that the shoe shine boy moment will be when the boy at the car wash is telling people to buy gold. After all the preferred form of transport in 1929 was shoes. Now it is cars. :D Tenuous link I know. (I always wash my own car. So I will never know.)

 

Hi Belfast Boy

 

I think that shoe shine moments are a long way off yet. 'People down the pub' are however noticing these type of enterprises - giving cash for broken and unwanted gold jewellery (but at 30% under spot). There is typically a stall in most large shopping malls in the UK now.

 

http://www.mygoldmine.co.uk/index.php?page...me=how-it-works

http://www.joelsgoldstore.com/

 

I've not posted much recently - I'm taking advantage of this temporary sweet spot in the UK economy to move jobs (and get a payrise to boot). I've noticed that there currently remains reasonable employment opportunities for specialist (and qualified) individuals in the public and private UK sector, at least until the next step down in the economy, when I suspect that 'across the board' recruitment freezes will begin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What if other governments followed India's lead?

 

Traders criticise gold tax increase

By Joe Leahy in Mumbai and Chris Flood in London

Published: July 6 2009 18:22 | Last updated: July 6 2009 18:22

 

India, the world’s largest consumer of gold, could face a drop in precious metal imports after the government announced plans to double import taxes on gold and silver.

 

Customs duty on gold bars and coins is set to double to Rs200 ($4.12) per 10 grammes as part of India’s interim budget.

 

The move prompted an angry reaction from the Bombay Bullion Association, the traders’ body.

 

“Imports were down 50 per cent in the first half, and now even the remaining demand will evaporate,” said Suresh Hundia, president of the BBA.

 

CONTINUE >>>

 

Wouldn't expect anything less from Obama and Brown should they fail in suppressing the price by other means, would you? Could also impose punitive taxes on any profits achieved no doubt... <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What if other governments followed India's lead?

 

Wouldn't expect anything less from Obama and Brown should they fail in suppressing the price by other means, would you? Could also impose punitive taxes on any profits achieved no doubt... <_<

 

I suspect the EU would stop Gordon Brown from acting individually.

 

I hope the Germans will put a stop to any attempt.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Korea needs more gold.

Bank of Korea Likely to Buy Gold for 1st Time in 11 Years

 

The Bank of Korea has not purchased gold for 11 years, but is expected to go on a gold buying spree, as the world’s central banks have bought the commodity since the global economic erupted in September last year.

 

A Bank of Korea official said yesterday, “The bank has begun to set up a plan to manage foreign exchange reserves for next year. It has also closely watched central banks in other nations and trends in the global gold market. Given the changing global financial environment, the bank`s management plan is critical.”

 

According to experts, the comment implies that the bank plans to buy gold soon. Korea has the world’s sixth most foreign exchange reserves but ranks just 56th in gold holdings.

<snip>

Kwon Sun-woo, the head of macroeconomic research at Samsung Economic Research Institute, said, “The Bank of Korea`s gold reserves are far less than enough. It should have bought more gold. Given the instability of the greenback, it needs to buy more gold.”

 

○ Lagging badly in gold reserve volume

 

As of late May this year, the Bank of Korea had 14.3 tons of gold, far less than that held by its counterparts in the United States (8,134 tons); Germany (3,413); China (1,054); Japan (765); Russia (537); Taiwan (424); the Philippines (154); Singapore (127); Thailand (84); Indonesia (73); and Malaysia (36 tons).

 

Worse, Korea is one of the world`s worst in the share of gold in its foreign exchange reserves -- 0.19 percent by market price and 0.03 percent by book value.

http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2009070411578

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This blog article (July 5, 2009) about the fractal analysis of the gold price suggest that a hyper-growth period may happen in July or soon after. It draws a comparison between now and the previous patterns in '06 and '07.

http://goodstockinvesting.blogspot.com/200...tal-moment.html

 

I've no idea whether this fractal method is very reliable - the article claims that it is.

 

Does anybody know how the fractal dimension is actually calculated in these price analyses?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I looks like: Break !

Gold is down almost $10, with Oil and stocks also under pressure

 

RU Sure - Looks to be holding up against a rising $ and falling oil price ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=27970

You called it the emergent Crisis Bid in the last Midas. Forgive the change in print, hit some button.... and I think you might have nailed it. So I will just go to point form and leave it at that. I think it might be California. It just might do it.

 

1. It starts quite recently with Paulson, Einhorn,, and Bass, the hedge fund managers, who took one look at the subprime larceny, did their homework, and said , independently of one another, I dont think so, took the other side of every crooked mortgage in America and made billions, and fast. They have now positioned themselves across an equivalent aisle except this time its the US Government, and they are saying the same thing, I dont think so, this deficit is not fundable, and the currency is toast. They have bought gold to the gunwales. One, they are not waiting for the riggers to run out of physical, i think they are preempting this argument, they are making Sprotts argument, ....it cannot be funded, and now we have a second stimulus package being bandied about?? Please, we cannot fund the one we have just squandered. Secondly, these are the smartest guys out there, it is axiomatic that they know the gold market is rigged, they know the short positions on the Comex to two daily decimal points , and they don't apparently care.Irrelevant. Implicitly they are saying with their billions that the game is very nearly over. .So thats them , the smartest money in the world just hopped on our train.

 

2. China. I won't belabor China, its abundantly clear what they are doing, not to mention Russia, and half a dozen other countries. Its ditch the dollar time, chinese water torture style, two forward, one back. Today they put the stranglehold on TECK about the last large independent mining company in Canada. Ten days ago it was Addax Its worldwide, they are blowing their fortune cookies over their Dollar exposure, and this is warp speed for these people, who normally think generationally if not in near geological time.

 

3. Finally California. I thought Canada's GNP was par with California. Not now, not any more, California is 1.8 trillion, Canada is 1.2.I am aware that California trotted out the IOUs once before, but not remotely with a backdrop like this. California is 13 percent of the US economy today and has begun paying its bills in scrip, SCRIP! or what we used to call in my era, Chinese money. Plus ca change. THEY now call it AMERICAN money with equivalent derision. So, 13 percent of the US economy is paying its bills with IOUs. There are 5 other states, some big ; about to do the same. Expressed another way, a country a third larger than Canada, itself a G8 member, is meeting its obligations with IOUs. This is Horrordome country. Next week we raise 74 billion, 2s 10s and 30s, , and its blindly apparent that these :"healthy "bid to cover ratios, and the "foreign purchasors" , are just contrivances, there are no foreign buyers, its just backdoor monetization at gunpoint. Britain will evidently do anything as long ias they can do it on their knees, , and Japan has a little history that provides a salutory prod too.

 

CONCLUSION.

 

This is abridged. There are about another hundred points, starting with last weeks flotation of another possiblestimulus package which is just the stuff of raw comedy were it not so tragic. The conditions are in place for a tsunami, the smart money emplaced, the new boss flexing his muscles, and America on its pilgrimage to Neverland, bristling with IOUs.

 

Its now

 

midas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×