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Same story on MoneySavingExpert.com.

I've been trying to advise people to invest in physical silver-but have now had 3 posts removed,the last two never even got to the forum.

This is a good sign,as 'they'must be getting desperate to try and keep a lid on silver

The thing with MoneySavingExpert.com is that it's more a website for "consumer" issues and rights etc.

 

A lot of the people aren't very financially savvy on there, so they need some form of "protection" from advice that could cost them money... If they see the value of an investment go down, then they'll think they've got a bum deal and sell at a loss to "protect" themselves from any further losses. :angry:

 

Most of them probably can't see the relationship between saving cash to get interest, and inflation making things cost more... and then realising what other things they can do to protect themselves from inflation.

 

That website can't be seen to have people offering "advice", since that could breach legal regulations, so the only real way is to "discuss" the price of gold or silver, and "discuss" inflation, and "discuss" the value of cash losing its purchasing power... and for them to put 2+2 together and do their own research.

 

But like I said at the beginning... most won't be able to see past how to get their extra 0.1% interest by moving their cash from Bank A to Bank B, etc.

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The thing with MoneySavingExpert.com is that it's more a website for "consumer" issues and rights etc.

 

A lot of the people aren't very financially savvy on there, so they need some form of "protection" from advice that could cost them money... If they see the value of an investment go down, then they'll think they've got a bum deal and sell at a loss to "protect" themselves from any further losses. :angry:

 

Most of them probably can't see the relationship between saving cash to get interest, and inflation making things cost more... and then realising what other things they can do to protect themselves from inflation.

 

That website can't be seen to have people offering "advice", since that could breach legal regulations, so the only real way is to "discuss" the price of gold or silver, and "discuss" inflation, and "discuss" the value of cash losing its purchasing power... and for them to put 2+2 together and do their own research.

 

But like I said at the beginning... most won't be able to see past how to get their extra 0.1% interest by moving their cash from Bank A to Bank B, etc.

 

Agreed...that's why I've given up on trying to enlighten them....their loss !

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I bought quite a few kgs of scrap UK 50% coins on ebay last year as a long term hold, I did not see much USA scrap silver but I havent really looked.

 

Most around spot at the time but VAT would have made newer coins dearer.

 

I lost interest in ebay after I was ripped off by the sovereign scammer and have bought Ag Phils from coininvest direct they are quite good value as I think they are in Germany and the VAT is lower I think its 7%.

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Ok, another quick question about CoinInvestDirect.com

 

It's Saturday today, if I place an order, when will it arrive?

There's only 4 working days between now and the Easter weekend, so would it be before or after the weekend?

 

And I got as far as the checkout page, where I input my delivery address, but was a bit scared clicking the button underneath to complete the order. :rolleyes:

 

What happens after that? Is that the last screen? Have I completed my order at that stage?

 

I'd like to get it delivered to my work address... does it get delivered by a courier company?

Where's the option to add postal insurance? Or don't I need that if its being delivered by a courier?

Which courier company is used? What hours do they deliver between? Hopefully they don't turn up at a business address too early or too late in the day when no-one's there!

 

And when they invoice me, how do I pay that? Do they supply an account number for me to do a bank transfer (via online banking)? Or do I phone them with my debit card details? Their T&C says I've only got 3 days to pay them after receiving the invoice... is the invoice in the package with the coins, or mailed separately?

 

Or is it mailed first, and I have to pay first before they even dispatch my order????

 

So many questions... hopefully all the right answers forthcoming to put me at ease... :angry:

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Article by Peter Shiff commenting on the Feds decision to take mortgage based collateral:

Vive La France – the Road to Hyperinflation

"...backing paper money with mortgages is nothing new. The French tried it in the late 18th Century, and it lead to hyperinflation. Assignats, which were first issued in 1790 to help finance the French revolution, were backed by mortgages on confiscated church properties. Although the stolen underlying collateral did have some value, the revolutionaries saw no reason to limit how many Assignats were printed, which resulted in massive depreciation. Within three years, price controls were introduced and failure to accept Assignats, initially an offence subject to six years in prison, was made a capital crime. By 1799 the currency was completely worthless.

 

If even the threat of death could not prop up the Assignat, does anyone believe that the currency could have been saved if Robespierre had forcefully mouthed a “strong Assignat policy” as President Bush is now doing with the dollar? Rather than repeating the mistakes of history we should learn from them. Our own failed experiment with the Continental currency as well as the Great Depression should prove conclusively that it is Austrian, and not French, economics we should be following."

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I've been making reasonable sums from spreadbetting, mainly to get the practice - starting from a very small position I've quadrupled my money, but have 'lost' a good few £ on downswings in the process. I'm now considering taking a large position

I've been using a similar approach. In the early days I opened a few positions... things went well. Then I increased my positions , and having read up a little more, I put stops in place. Then two things happened:

1) A few markets I was invested in moved against me, losing me money.

2) Some of my stops tripped during swings, losing me money.

 

At one point, having been smugly sitting on ~£1000 of profit, I was over £4000 in the red. I got margin calls - and rapidly had to shovel several thousand pounds into my accounts to keep my positions open. And that's the key - keeping them open.

 

You really have to stand back and think "am I confident my predictions are right?" ... if you are, then you MUST NOT sell on the falls. You'll only kick yourself when you walk away saying "spread betting is dangerous" only to then see the price go through the roof over the coming months.

 

Since then, I've adopted this approach and to-date it's working very well:

  1. Open positions to a level at which you're comfortable.
  2. Don't use stops. Especially in a market as volatile as silver, selling on dips is a bad move and you'll get shaken out quite often.
  3. Instead, set up limit orders to BUY small amounts when the price drops significantly. I do this so that IGIndex send me a text and it alerts me to the drop. I can then log in and make a decision on what to do.
  4. When the price then rises above it's previous average, sell a few of those positions that you bought on the dip. If your long-term view is correct, this method WORKS.
  5. Remain professional and unemotional in your dealing. Don't monitor the market too closely or you'll have days when you see your "worth" drop by several thousand pounds in a day. It can also affect your job if you're constantly logged into your account wheeling and dealing.

In general, I'm convinced that a "hands-off" approach is generally better than a "hands-on" one. Follow the same approach that the long-term physical holders use. You don't hear of Goldfinger sloping off to sell his bullion if the price dips, so why should you do the same? You're using financial instruments instead of physical because it's easier and has less margin, however you should adopt the same strategy. As I say: avoid stops.

 

I'm aware that this system will be absolutely useless in the event that my (our?) predictions are wrong. If you follow this system to the letter and the price consistently falls you'll end up chasing the market down and burn all your cash faster than Bernanke's been burning the dollar. Similar to today's young bankers who've only ever worked in a credit-fueled bull market, you need to spare a thought for what *might* happen. However, as long as you're convinced that the price WILL rise, hold onto those positions.

 

Silver and Platinum are quite volatile and you can make good money playing the moves. But honestly I've made far more from my long gold and short GBP positions - with next-to-zero (daytime trading) effort.

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Thanks for the replies on this. Frizzers you're right of course re DMA - the thing is (and this connects to Bobsta's point on being sure about being right), I have to an extent 'bought' the talk about short positions in silver and think it's possible that we may see an unpredictable spike in the price, dollars in magnitude. I just can't envisage ag hitting $18 again for a long time, and that is where I'd be placing a stop, although I'd be grateful for a contrary point of view.

 

Bobsta I think you and I have adopted almost the same stategy up to now, and I identify with the point about it affecting your job checking on prices all the time - that's why I'd planned on taking a larger position with a lower stop, and I think I've trained myself to be unemotional about being a few K down. I'm also happy with my plan to crossover my stop sell order with my stoploss - I may sacrifice a few K of profit that way but will have more peace of mind (e.g. sell order at ag=1850, stop at 1800, given that if ag falls that much I think it would be going against trend). Of course I'd have to use 2 different firms to do this.

 

Basically I see my downside risk as being about £10K (which would, admittedly, gut me), but the more I read about the disaster unfolding I see the upside potential as being worth about £20K with POS=$25, and £45K if POS gets to $30, which I see as quite possible. Again, the argument re: short positions is what makes me think this. Of course, the alternative is spreadbetting gold, but it seems to me that in order to make a decent amount, you'd have to set stops very low (e.g. at £50 per point), because even though silver is more volatile than gold, the system of 0.5 = 1 point makes me feel more comfortable with taking a large position e.g. gold -10% = 1000 points, silver - 10% = 420 points.

 

thanks again for taking time over the feedback guys - would be interested in following people's experiences

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Am just about to make my first ever physical coin purchase (from CoinInvestDirect).

 

Going to spend £1000, just to get my "collection" started :blink:

 

So am thinking for my first purchase, I'd like a several coins... probably a mixture of gold and silver, and from different countries (yeah, I know that means some coins are going to carry more of a premium than others).

 

Therefore, I'm not going to go for 1oz gold coins this time around, but rather some smaller weights.

 

Probably going for a 50/50 split between gold/silver, e.g.

 

- 1/2oz Gold Krugerrand (x1)

- 1/2oz Gold Panda (x1)

- 1/4oz Gold Maples (x2)

- 1oz Silver Philharmonics (x20)

 

Any comments?

 

Am thinking it might be easier to sell smaller denominations of coins in the future after the price has skyrocketed (i.e. someone else wouldn't have to fork out an extortionate amount for a 1oz gold coin, and can instead spend half or quarter the amount of cash to buy it from me).... not that I'd be thinking of selling, otherwise I might as well just stick this £1000 in my ETF.

 

You look to have a good gold / silver spread. Personally I wouldnt buy a Gold Panda as an investment. Its a beautiful coin for a collection, but unfortunately there are a lot of fakes from china. Im sure your coin will be ok, but if you go to sell it in the future on fleabay, some buyers will be put off. Krugerrands are the cheapest way to stack your gold and always very liquid on the sell side. The same goes for sovereigns with the added advantage of CGT but you do pay a premuim.

 

On average I have seen the following premuims from dealers.

 

Krugerrands 5% above spot

Eagles, Maples, Philharmonics 6-8%

Britannias, Sovereigns anything up to 15%

 

You can also sometimes get good deals on the fractional foreign coins SFR,Guilders, Pesos etc but need to do more maths to work out their troy oz value.

 

Bargains can always be got from jewellers, fleabay etc. Just need to look around.

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I bought quite a few kgs of scrap UK 50% coins on ebay last year as a long term hold, I did not see much USA scrap silver but I havent really looked.

 

Most around spot at the time but VAT would have made newer coins dearer.

 

I lost interest in ebay after I was ripped off by the sovereign scammer and have bought Ag Phils from coininvest direct they are quite good value as I think they are in Germany and the VAT is lower I think its 7%.

 

Tell me about the sovereign scammer? How did you know that the coin was fake?

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Tell me about the sovereign scammer? How did you know that the coin was fake?

 

I paid for sovereigns and they did not arrive, He delivered one quite promptly and then I waited and waited for a second order of 10 of which one arrived, think I lost about £800, one chap I think lost about £8k. He got away with £50k in total, his history went back several years and feedback was good on many sovereign sales. ebay not the slightest bit of help they only seem to be interested in their fees. The police were no use.

 

There was a similar scam a couple of years ago just before christmas on wii's, there was a chat forum on which I took part and some of the wii victims were there but it became pretty obvious that I would have to stump up money to persue him with little hope of a return. He pleaded poverty and it appeared he may have had a gambling problem and run off to somewhere in Ireland. (Just going from memory of a deleted thread)

 

http://groups.ebay.co.uk/clubforum.jspa;js...mID=18000010720

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One thing that has been bugging me about Gold.

 

If gold is anti banks / wall street and not in the goverments interest. Why does the goverment not just slap 17.5% VAT on it like silver ????? This would make private ownership a lot more expensive.

 

Why was VAT abolished on investment gold as of January 1st 2000 ????

 

This ties up with " The Brown Bottom " : The sale of 400 tons of bullion in a series of auctions between 1999 and 2002

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Of course, the alternative is spreadbetting gold, but it seems to me that in order to make a decent amount, you'd have to set stops very low (e.g. at £50 per point), because even though silver is more volatile than gold, the system of 0.5 = 1 point makes me feel more comfortable with taking a large position e.g. gold -10% = 1000 points, silver - 10% = 420 points.

Dopamine, you've confused me a little with this point. :blink:

 

IMHO the best way to look at how much you're welling to "bet" is to look at your overall exposure. By this I mean...

If your provider lists gold at "1003.4" and you go long at £10/point, then you've effectively "bought" £10,034 of gold.

Similarly if your provider lists silver at "2075" and you go long at £5/point, then you've effectively "bought £10,375 of silver.

 

So if you're comfortable holding ~£100k of gold you'd place £100/point ... and similarly £50/point of silver.

 

If you bought £100k of gold and it dropped 10% in value you'd lose £10k. If it gained 10% you'd make £10k. Your positions will do the same.

 

Similarly I have savings I wanted to "convert" into Swiss Francs so I purchased positions in CHF/GBP to the same value of the funds I wanted to protect. Same result is achieved.

 

I wouldn't get too hung up on the "number of points" ... just the overall value. (e.g. IGIndex quote gold as "1003.4", CantorIndex quote it as "10034" ... so £5/point with Cantor is the same as £50/point with IG).

 

Edited to add: I know the gold purists will be cringing reading this. I apologise... I only "invest" this way as it's easier. I appreciate that I'm still dealing in electronic/paper promises and should my spreadbetting companies go to the wall I'd probably lose everything. In time, I will look to convert some of this profit into physical.

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Hmmm, here's a couple of posts in a new thread entitled "Gold Investing" on the MSE site:

 

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=801109

 

Can anybody help a few weeks ago there was a TV programme which had a feature about investing in gold. Can anybody help and tell me which programme it was or point me in the right direction of gold investing (not a large amount!!!!!!). Thanks

 

and...

 

hello all

 

can i ask when buying gold can you DIY or do you have to have a broker do it for you, therefore paying a charge on top of the price of the gold?

 

Also, when are you allowed to sell it back (if this is how its works) for example could you buy some one week and then if the price of gold per ounce was to go up a week later could you then sell it back thus making a profit.?

 

Finally what is the minimum amount of gold you can buy.??

 

total novice says thanks for any help

 

Could this be early rumblings of Joe "haven't a clue" Public wanting to get in on some action???

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I want to get peoples views on the similarities so far with the 1970s, which the current situation seems to be playing out comparibly against (inflationary environment, commodities upcycle, etc) - Though obviously there are differences...

 

I have a 60%-30%-10% split of holding of PMs between physical, equities and leveraged respectively, and I only trade the leveraged element.

 

Not to put a dampener on things, but I'm cautious on gold at the moment when comparing it against the previous cycle. I still get the feeling that we are due a largish correction (30+%).

 

I currently see 300 dma (currently $730ish) as the lowest gold could fall to - though in 6 months time 300 dma may be $800ish which is the more likely timescale for things to pan out.

 

monthly_dollar.gif

 

What I'm wondering is if at some point we will have any comparable downturn for the gold price like that seen 1975-76 where it lost around 40%. Should it have happened already or is it different this time? Or are we getting set up for that final downleg before the final phase? Or are we now comparable to the final 1977-81 phase now?

 

What I'm particularly interested in is info around why the 1975-76 downleg happened (if there was a reason?)

 

Any views, comments and analysis much appreciated :D

 

p.s. Also an ex-follower of the gold thread from HPC. Prefer the maturity shown here though :blink: I got into gold in 2005 after following a thread by DrBubb so many thanks for raising my awareness!!

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One thing that has been bugging me about Gold.

 

If gold is anti banks / wall street and not in the goverments interest. Why does the goverment not just slap 17.5% VAT on it like silver ????? This would make private ownership a lot more expensive.

 

Why was VAT abolished on investment gold as of January 1st 2000 ????

 

This ties up with " The Brown Bottom " : The sale of 400 tons of bullion in a series of auctions between 1999 and 2002

I've wondered about the new EU law of 2000. I think it could be that the elite rich wanted to make it a better investment for themselves, anticipating a long gold bull through which they could benefit most. I can't think of any other good reason.

 

BTW the video link you gave is bad. It's got ... in the address. Try again.

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I paid for sovereigns and they did not arrive, He delivered one quite promptly and then I waited and waited for a second order of 10 of which one arrived, think I lost about £800, one chap I think lost about £8k. He got away with £50k in total, his history went back several years and feedback was good on many sovereign sales. ebay not the slightest bit of help they only seem to be interested in their fees. The police were no use.

 

There was a similar scam a couple of years ago just before christmas on wii's, there was a chat forum on which I took part and some of the wii victims were there but it became pretty obvious that I would have to stump up money to persue him with little hope of a return. He pleaded poverty and it appeared he may have had a gambling problem and run off to somewhere in Ireland. (Just going from memory of a deleted thread)

 

http://groups.ebay.co.uk/clubforum.jspa;js...mID=18000010720

 

A site was set up to help the ebayers that were scammed:

http://www.wheresmygold.co.uk

http://feedback.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...FS&frm=1883

 

I nearly got sucked in for 10 sovereigns, but luckily thought it was too good to be true and could not believe the volume he was selling was tangible or believable so did not bid in the end - I had already had a similar experience with another seller.

 

It looks like he was selling gold short and originally buying sovereigns on the dips (I believe he had long delivery times) The gold price just ran away for that kind of business model. The same thing happened to a german ebayer called ML-Agentur (google for their story) who I did actually buy from once - got my gold in the end, but the 4 month delivery time and excuses raised my awareness and blood pressure!

 

Sorry if anyone here lost out :blink:

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I want to get peoples views on the similarities so far with the 1970s, which the current situation seems to be playing out comparibly against (inflationary environment, commodities upcycle, etc) - Though obviously there are differences...

 

I have a 60%-30%-10% split of holding of PMs between physical, equities and leveraged respectively, and I only trade the leveraged element.

 

Not to put a dampener on things, but I'm cautious on gold at the moment when comparing it against the previous cycle. I still get the feeling that we are due a largish correction (30+%).

 

I currently see 300 dma (currently $730ish) as the lowest gold could fall to - though in 6 months time 300 dma may be $800ish which is the more likely timescale for things to pan out.

 

monthly_dollar.gif

 

What I'm wondering is if at some point we will have any comparable downturn for the gold price like that seen 1975-76 where it lost around 40%. Should it have happened already or is it different this time? Or are we getting set up for that final downleg before the final phase? Or are we now comparable to the final 1977-81 phase now?

 

What I'm particularly interested in is info around why the 1975-76 downleg happened (if there was a reason?)

 

Any views, comments and analysis much appreciated :D

 

p.s. Also an ex-follower of the gold thread from HPC. Prefer the maturity shown here though :blink: I got into gold in 2005 after following a thread by DrBubb so many thanks for raising my awareness!!

 

Yeh I think the first drop was something to do with the Hunt bros. playing funny buggers with the silver, and after this interest rates were pumped through the roof. I'm sure some of the experts here could say that in a more detailed technical way.

Not being a financier in on the action, I don't know the full ins and outs of everything going on at the moment, but this bear sterns thing is crazy. I am most grateful for all the posters here allowing me to understand the fundamentals.

I have most of my meager savings in Goldmoney, not being comfortable with having expensive coins lying around my rented "btl" hovel. The service seems basically sound, it is entirely web based. It would be nice to receive some documentation from them- annual statement or something.

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I've wondered about the new EU law of 2000. I think it could be that the elite rich wanted to make it a better investment for themselves, anticipating a long gold bull through which they could benefit most. I can't think of any other good reason.

 

BTW the video link you gave is bad. It's got ... in the address. Try again.

 

 

Try this

 

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That your ebay group? Did you buy the 10 sovereigns outside of ebay or did he do a listing for them?

 

I think I joined and introduced myself then just lurked several people were highly motivated to persue him and nothing much came of it.

 

They were listed on ebay - ebay offer insurance only if payment is made by PayPal, this chap wanted cheque only which did not seem that unusual as I had already bought a couple of Krugers from buyers with cheques.

 

I havent bought gold on ebay since as Coininvestdirect, Chard and Goldline offer a simple and reliable service its not necessary to take the risk.

 

It could be an awful lot worse, I might well have never found out about gold investing at all, that was a complete fluke, I was thinking BTL but felt quite sceptical about it and unsure of why. I visited HPC with a genuine enquiring attitude about BTL. I rapidly learnt BTL is a dead loss.

 

I think it was about the time GF joined and the gold thread really got going, the subjects of high finance, history of money etc. are something I had never thought about at all but they really interested me especially as it became more and more plain that I really did need to protect myself from a greed driven dishonest financial system thats falling apart.

 

Thing is I would never ever have found this thread here.

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Yeh I think the first drop was something to do with the Hunt bros. playing funny buggers with the silver, and after this interest rates were pumped through the roof. I'm sure some of the experts here could say that in a more detailed technical way.

Not being a financier in on the action, I don't know the full ins and outs of everything going on at the moment, but this bear sterns thing is crazy. I am most grateful for all the posters here allowing me to understand the fundamentals.

I have most of my meager savings in Goldmoney, not being comfortable with having expensive coins lying around my rented "btl" hovel. The service seems basically sound, it is entirely web based. It would be nice to receive some documentation from them- annual statement or something.

 

 

I think the Hunt brothers where there at the end in the 1980s. They were around for 1975-76, but I don't think anything they did caused that drop. They were whacked in 1980.

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What I'm particularly interested in is info around why the 1975-76 downleg happened (if there was a reason?)

 

Any views, comments and analysis much appreciated :D

 

p.s. Also an ex-follower of the gold thread from HPC. Prefer the maturity shown here though :blink: I got into gold in 2005 after following a thread by DrBubb so many thanks for raising my awareness!!

 

Could it be more to do with geopolitical factors.

 

1st spike Oil embargo following Yom Kippur war of October 1973

 

The 1973 oil crisis began on October 17, 1973, when the members of Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) announced, as a result of the ongoing Yom Kippur War, that they would no longer ship oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt (the United States, its allies in Western Europe, and Japan).

 

 

2nd spike Iran revolution, Saddam invaded Iran, Soviets invaded Afghanistan.

 

The 1979 (or second) oil crisis in the United States occurred in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. Amid massive protests, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled his country in early 1979, allowing Ayatollah Khomeini to gain control. The protests shattered the Iranian oil sector. While the new regime resumed oil exports, it was inconsistent and at a lower volume, forcing prices to go up. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations, under the presidency of Dr. Mana Alotaiba increased production to offset the decline, and the overall loss in production was about 4 percent

 

Oil and gold prices do tend to move together.

 

Is peak oil bullish for gold?

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