GOLD

[TrueNorth]

I'm back from my hols (now the wife has allowed me to post again!)..and look at the POG....$960!

. . . .

The telly always had adverts for gold on usually from a company called goldline http://www.goldline.com/

 

Also adverts for turn your 'gold into cash' outfits: http://www.cash4gold.com/

 

Thanks for the update.

 

I saw my first UK-based "Cash for Gold" ad on telly last night. ITV I think it was.

[romans holiday]

End of last thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=120597

Like the title. I reckon we definitely have a floor in gold here. Thats the good news, "bad" news is I think it may take some time before we see any great breakout to the upside. Most expect this to happen with a dollar collapse so with the dollar looking weak here, this month might be quite telling as to where gold will go. Either it will go parabolic as the dollar collapses, or will rise incrementally as the dollar stabilizes. Of course there is a third option where the dollar not only recovers but strengthens. I reckon that in this scenario, with a floor under gold, gold would strengthen alongside the dollar, which would see the gold/dollar inverse relation broken. If you overlay US Pog with the USD index, this relation is already starting to look very weak.

[FWIW]

Anyone here a subscriber to this: http://fractalmarketreport.com/index.php

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Amazing chart - can you tell me where you got it from? I want to use it as a timing tool!

 

I am afraid not

 

I haven't managed to get the source data, but you may have more success:

It is reported in the UBS "UBS Metals Daily".

Anyone ?

 

An example of someone reporting based upon it:

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20080903/g...precdented-.htm

 

[warpig]

That's how I've interpreted it, given the inverse relationship. The question for me is, was it deliberate to manipulate the price of gold? It's a shame the unit of measure is missing from the axis, it would be nice how much metal it took to move the market.

 

Just to be sure: does "UBS Sales" means "UBS Sales of gold"?

[Steve Netwriter]

A few more bits of information:

 

Gold Investments Market Update - UBS, World's Largest Gold Trader, Continues to Report Unprecdented International Demand

-- Posted Wednesday, 3 September 2008

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1220446800.php

 

UBS, Switzerland's Largest Bullion Dealer, Continues to Report Unprecedented International Demand

 

UBS, the world's largest gold trader, continues to report unprecedented international demand. The demand is coming from Europe, India and the Middle East through Turkey and Abu Dhabi.

 

In yesterday's UBS Metals Daily entitled 'India Loves Gold', they detail this unprecedented demand:

 

"After claiming last week that our vault staff have been as busy as at any time over the past 20 years, we have had a few requests for data to substantiate this assertion. We cannot show the past 20 years data, but we have collected daily sales to India over the past 18 months. We put together this series to illustrate the recent strength of UBS's gold sales to India.

 

Note that we have turned this into an index to maintain confidentiality, but considering that we are one of the top players in selling physical gold to the Indian market, with a good geographical spread of consignment location and overall market share of between 10 and 20% we believe that this is a very representative display of just how strong recent sales have been. At the start of the series, in early 2007, demand was reasonable, but had been so since September 2006. A better description of our sales then was 'sold and steady' rather than 'spectacular': the near-absence of jewellery demand between August 07 and July 08 (apart from a few brief flurries in April and May this year) left the Indian market largely de-stocked, hence the tremendous pick up in demand over the past five weeks following the gold price correction.

 

This demand - running at 5-10 times the average of 2007 levels, was not confined to India: note the similarly strong demand reported in the story about demand from Abu Dhabi. We do not, unfortunately, have such good statistics to illustrate non Indian demand. The liquidation seen from the Comex and OTC market was largely absorbed by this physical demand (jewellery and physical investment pieces). Physical demand continues as of Monday with a near-record day of Indian demand prompted by the dollar and crude induced sell-off of the gold price. Yet long liquidation has stopped ceased after a near-record volume of Comex liquidation over the past six weeks as we reported in our Metals' Daily. This combination of heavy long liquidation and stellar physical demand remains the main reasoning behind our strong call in gold (although supported also by a technical view on the dollar from our Technical Strategy colleagues)."

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

UBS Daily Precious Metals

Written by Administrator

Friday, 29 August 2008

 

LONDON – Goldessential.com – Aug 29 – 11.22GMT

UBS Daily Precious Metals

Author: John Reade

http://www.goldessential.com/index.php?opt...0&Itemid=89

 

We hold onto our view - expressed yesterday - to buy gold, targeting an initial move to $850/oz with extension to $900/oz and potentially a long way beyond. This call looked very smart yesterday with gold rallying up to a high of about $844/oz before a combination of short-term profit taking in gold, a failure of EURUSD to break 1.4808, some dollar strength on the back of better-than-expected US economic data and the fall in energy commodities, saw gold shed all the gains of the day, briefly trading down to about $825/oz, although the metal closed on Comex at about $832/oz. Asian trade saw gold claw back some more of the US losses as EURUSD popped a little higher and the metal is steady and quiet at about $837/oz in late morning trading in Europe. Platinum and silver outperformed gold yesterday on a mix of short-covering and some fundamental demand. Platinum is around $1780; silver is $13.92; and palladium is straddling $300/oz.

 

Our view that gold (and the other precious metals) will trade higher over the next few months is driven by three factors. Current very strong fundamental demand (see the story and our comments on Krugerrands, below); reduced speculative and investment positions in the futures and OTC markets; and expected weakness in the US dollar, based on the view of our Technical Strategy colleagues. We are very confident about strong current demand as we see this on an intraday basis; we are confident about our view of positioning; and we are placing our trust in our technical strategy colleagues on the dollar. This is with some justification, as Jason Perl's infrequent, big calls on the dollar have been very successful.

 

World's Largest Gold Refiner Runs Out of Krugerrands

 

Rand Refinery Ltd., the world's largest gold refinery, ran out of South African Krugerrands after an "unusually large'' order from a buyer in Switzerland. The order was for 5,000 ounces and it will take until Sept. 3 for inventories to be replenished, said Johan Botha, a spokesman for Rand Refinery in Germiston, east of Johannesburg. He declined to identify the buyer

 

From this NEW page

 

Research (NEW)

Daily Precious Metals

http://www.goldessential.com/index.php?opt...1&Itemid=89

 

"Premium service"

 

[Steve Netwriter]

This is an example USB Metals Daily from 2007:

http://www.fullermoney.com/content/2007-12...ly20071210w.pdf

 

Investors Back In Palladium

06 April 2009 07:15:26

Author: John Reade

 

 

 

COTR data, released Friday showed a decent increase in net longs in palladium as seen on the attached chart. Although relatively small in absolute terms, the rise is noteworthy in that it took place when net longs fell in platinum and silver fell and the net positioning in gold was unchanged. Although it is possible that the move was due to the proposed launch of a US-listed palladium ETF (discussed below), we doubt this was the case. If this were the driver, platinum would probably have moved higher at the same time. Rather we suspect that investors were reacting to some of the factors we mentioned in the UBS Metals Daily titled "No Scarcity Of Palladium", 26/3/09. A combination of cold fusion rumour (groan), talk of stronger jewellery demand, enthusiastic imports from Hong Kong and suspicion that Russian palladium stockpiles may be depleted (again) may have all combined to lift investor interest in palladium. The attempt to list US ETFs on the two PGMs may also encourage investors to buy palladium. Most of this move is speculation rather than fundamentally driven and investors should apply appropriate caution in buying this relatively un-scarce metal when fundamental demand from carmakers is so weak.

https://fx1.oanda.com/mod_perl/news/article.pl?id=844742

 

There should be one here:

http://www.kereport.com/articles/jun0809_ubs.pdf

from http://www.kereport.com/articles_june09.html

but none of the pdfs seem to be working.

 

[Pixel8r]

Gold gearing up (again) to break $1,000?

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch

 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- For the umpteenth time, gold bugs think gold may be poised to break $1,000.

 

The last week of July definitely lacked summer somnolence in the gold market.

 

A brutal $14.40 sell-off on Tuesday caused chartists great distress. But gold held. And then on Friday it staged an even more powerful recovery, rising some $20, closing at $954.50 and repairing the week's technical damage.

 

Dan Norcini at JSMineset commented: "I must say that today's sharp climb higher is very impressive from a technical perspective, as it pushed gold back above all of the major moving averages on the WEEKLY chart. It is evident from the ferocity of today's climb that a good many guys got caught flatfooted on the short side and were violently squeezed out." (See Web site.)

 

Friday turned the Australian service The Privateer's celebrated $US 5x3 point and figure chart up. (Chart available free here.)

 

As with other types of gold chart, it now raises the enticing possibility of an immense inverse head-and-shoulders pattern -- bullish implication: maybe $1,300.

[romans holiday]

Hmmmm... not really impressed. I mean, isn't it just reflecting dollar weakness here... and we all know the dollar will rebound soon.

 

I think gold will break out perhaps after the summer when the inverse relation between gold and dollar breaks down.

 

Good to see silver going strong today.

[TrueNorth]

Great piece from Stewart Thomson on 321 gold today.

 

8. All gold astronauts report to the gold rocket launch pad. Prepare for the countdown!

 

9. What if you don't have "enough" gold? Answer: Wait. Do not chase price. Gold may rise $500 now. It may rise $100. It may tank $500. We don't know. If gold soars to $1,500 now, great. If you have no gold and gold soars to $1,500, who cares. Buy gold weakness. Don't run out to the launch pad and grab on to the rocket as it takes off. The professional gamblers are inside the rocket in space suits. The bankers, and most of you, should be in Mission Control. The madman "chase the rocket as it blasts off and grab on!" approach could see your fry as the rocket takes off. If the rocket takes off soon and you have "too little gold," wait, it will come back down later. Buy then. Rocket chasers don't make money. They get burned to death, by the bankers who are sitting in mission control. I'm sitting there too. Compared to them, maybe I'm in a high-chair with my bib on, but I'm there.

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_...n_s_080409.html

[ziknik]

Hmmmm... not really impressed. I mean, isn't it just reflecting dollar weakness here... and we all know the dollar will rebound soon.

...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...-investors.html

 

Gold falls in value by 10pc for UK investors

…

British investors investing in gold for safety will have seen their investment fall by 12pc over the past six months because of the weak dollar.

 

Gold is viewed as a classic safe-haven investment but it is valued in dollars and is used as a hedge against dollar movements – the price of gold tends to rise when the dollar falls.

 

For example, the London gold price fix on Friday afternoon was $939. Six months previously it stood at $920, so the price has risen by 2.2pc. But six months ago the pound was worth $1.44, much lower than Friday's value of $1.67. This dramatic fall in the dollar is more than enough to wipe out the gain in the gold price for British investors.

 

In fact, if you had bought an ounce of gold six months ago, the $920 needed would have cost £639. If you now sold that gold, the $939 it would fetch would convert into just £562. This is a loss of £77 or nearly 12pc – even though gold has appreciated by 2.2pc over the period.

…

 

[romans holiday]

Great piece from Stewart Thomson on 321 gold today.

 

8. All gold astronauts report to the gold rocket launch pad. Prepare for the countdown!

 

9. What if you don't have "enough" gold? Answer: Wait. Do not chase price. Gold may rise $500 now. It may rise $100. It may tank $500. We don't know. If gold soars to $1,500 now, great. If you have no gold and gold soars to $1,500, who cares. Buy gold weakness. Don't run out to the launch pad and grab on to the rocket as it takes off. The professional gamblers are inside the rocket in space suits. The bankers, and most of you, should be in Mission Control. The madman "chase the rocket as it blasts off and grab on!" approach could see your fry as the rocket takes off. If the rocket takes off soon and you have "too little gold," wait, it will come back down later. Buy then. Rocket chasers don't make money. They get burned to death, by the bankers who are sitting in mission control. I'm sitting there too. Compared to them, maybe I'm in a high-chair with my bib on, but I'm there.

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_...n_s_080409.html

I am not so sure that we have a lot of volatiility in gold now in the post QE era. Pog looks to have settled down quite nicely at its near all time high. Many investors are lining up to buy if it does dip a little and in fact I think that is what we have been seeing recently. This could have effectively put a floor under gold. I do not expect it to go ballistic here but track sideways and perhaps incrementaly upwards. A lot depends on the dollar, but I suspect the dollar and gold could be trading places; in the future it might be the dollar that becomes volatile while gold remains relatively stable in an upward trend. So for example, even if the dollar spiked, this might not hardly effect gold because it could well strengthen at the same time [for the dollar to spike here, this would entail dire economic news... good for gold which is becoming increasingly "monetized"]

 

If someone had no gold, or not enough, I do not think that it is particularly good advice that they wait for the price to tank $500. Those with an existing solid position can afford to so wait. It really comes down to how much you own, whether you buy here, regardless of the price.

[bitbigt]

So say the "winning team"...

 

While there is still a fair chance of gold making a run at its highs over the short-term, there is considered to be very little chance now of a breakout to new highs

 

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

[romans holiday]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...-investors.html

 

Yes, i get more excited about the ratio between gold and silver these days rather than the price.

 

Nearing 65 now.

 

'cos I only consider profits taken in gold.

 

 

Just checked the dollar index, it is holding up at 77.6... oil also solid so looks like more than just dollar weakness at work today.

 

edited.

[romans holiday]

So say the "winning team"...

 

 

 

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

I thought I recognised that article... it's 2 weeks old.

[bitbigt]

I thought I recognised that article... it's 2 weeks old.

And what, fundamentally, has changed in the last 2 weeks to invalidate this article???

[DoctorSolar]

So say the "winning team"...

 

While there is still a fair chance of gold making a run at its highs over the short-term, there is considered to be very little chance now of a breakout to new highs

 

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

 

A different take from another "winning team"

 

Bob Hoye

Institutional Advisors

Aug 3, 2009

 

The sixteen month consolidation of the US$ gold price continues. Based upon the history of August being a pivotal month coupled with the consolidation having a similar price pattern with 1994, 2002 and 2007 we believe that a close above $960 would be expected to trigger a move to the all-time highs.

 

Bob Hoye Aug 3rd 2009

[Pixel8r]

Hmmmm... not really impressed. I mean, isn't it just reflecting dollar weakness here... and we all know the dollar will rebound soon.

 

I think gold will break out perhaps after the summer when the inverse relation between gold and dollar breaks down.

 

Good to see silver going strong today.

Isn't that the main reason people are going to gold, fait currencies in crisis because of quantitive easing. Gold has been reflecting dollar weakness since the start of this bull run in 2001.

 

Why would anyone want to hold something that has historically lost purchasing power, and currently is being devalued at a greater speed by quantitive easing.

 

[romans holiday]

Isn't that the main reason people are going to gold, fait currencies in crisis because of quantitive easing. Gold has been reflecting dollar weakness since the start of this bull run in 2001.

Inflation expectation is one reason people are buying. But the market is also buying everything on inflation expectation here. Another reason, besides an inflation hedge, that people are buying gold is they are buying it outright as a currency given increased concerns about other currencies. Though these reasons may seem similiar, there is a significant difference to keep in mind. Assume for one moment that there was another deflation scare for whatever reason, if gold was only an inflation hedge it would go on one heck of a dive. However, it is more than that now and is becoming "monetized" post QE which should see the price remain relatively stable even if [for the sake of argument] a dynamic of deflation reared its ugly head again.

 

Why would anyone want to hold something that has historically lost purchasing power, and currently is being devalued at a greater speed by quantitive easing

For the contrarian hedge which could see it all turn on a dime. Then you would buy weakened silver with strengthened dollars.

[Pixel8r]

Inflation expectation is one reason people are buying. But the market is also buying everything on inflation expectation here. Another reason, besides an inflation hedge, that people are buying gold is they are buying it outright as a currency given increased concerns about other currencies. Though these reasons may seem similiar, there is a significant difference to keep in mind. Assume for one moment that there was another deflation scare for whatever reason, if gold was only an inflation hedge it would go on one heck of a dive. However, it is more than that now and is becoming "monetized" post QE which should see the price remain relatively stable even if [for the sake of argument] a dynamic of deflation reared its ugly head again.

I see gold as a hedge against inflation and deflation, basically a hedge against government. I also see the dollar as a bet on the government!!!!

 

[Pixel8r]

For the contrarian hedge which could see it all turn on a dime. Then you would buy weakened silver with strengthened dollars.

Why not cut out the middle man and just swap between gold and silver, dependent on deflation scare or inflation scare.

 

[romans holiday]

Why not cut out the middle man and just swap between gold and silver, dependent on deflation scare or inflation scare.

Well, you are increasing your options which are always a good thing. It might actually turn out easier to trade dollars and silver than trading silver and gold. I do not care which currency I have, investment is war and I will use any tactics available. I do not really buy into the whole anti-dollar moralist thing.

 

[Pixel8r]

Well, you are increasing your options which are always a good thing. It might actually turn out easier to trade dollars and silver than trading silver and gold. I do not care which currency I have, investment is war and I will use any tactics available. I do not really buy into the whole anti-dollar moralist thing.

Have you read James Turks' book "The collapse of the Dollar and how to profit from it"?

 

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/038551224...ASIN=0385512244

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

Have you read James Turks' book "The collapse of the Dollar and how to profit from it"?

 

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/038551224...ASIN=0385512244

 

No, but then I have a fair idea what it is going to say because J Turk repeats the same thing ad nauseum.

 

No disrespect meant, but it just sounds like a broken record sometimes. It is an important part of the picture but there is more in heaven and earth than is dreamt of in the money supply.