Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 30.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • G0ldfinger

    2616

  • romans holiday

    2235

  • drbubb

    1478

  • Steve Netwriter

    1449

Clive Maund Gold Market update:

 

23rd August gold update

 

UPSIDE BREAKOUT ALERT: gold is now believed to be very close to an upside breakout to new highs, a development that should lead to a rapid advance towards the $1300 area, and it should be noted that this scenario will not be negated by a brief sharp drop that may be aimed at wrong-footing a lot of traders. The reasons for shifting from our recent stance of neutral/bullish to flat out bullish are as follows... 1. Massive inflationary pressures building as the gargantuan panic measure increases in M0 money supply by the US Fed late last year and well into this year come through the pipe, replicated in other countries around the world although probably not on such a grand scale. 2. strong breakout by US stockmarkets late last week that portends continued gains, confirming the building inflationary pressures. 3. ongoing gains in the prices of other commodities - copper continues to advance, crude oil threatening to break clear above June highs. 4. window for dollar to stage a strong rally believed to be closing, increasing downside risk - it appears that the dollar is to be sacrificed in favor of Treasuries - a quite logical way of reducing reducing the debt burden, even if not entirely appreciated by creditors. 5. significant improvement in gold COT last week. 4. gold's best month of the year seasonally, September, is just around the corner.

 

I find Clive's stuff very good. I posted his analogous Silver Market update on the silver thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a population of over 130 million 19 million ounces isn't much. They need to buy a lot more to get to about 1 ounce per capita which is good backing.

Taking population data from here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

 

...and official gold reserves from here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves

 

...and allowing for some copy/paste errors

 

...I created a spreadsheet of gold reserves per person here

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=twV...amp;output=html

 

 

Points of note

1) ECB reserves are listed separately and I didn't bother splitting them between Eurozone populations

2) Bullionvault has more gold than Jordan

3) Canada and Chile are surprisingly low on the list

4) Does anyone want to finance an invasion of Aruba? Err...I mean "an enterprise of great advantage, but none to know what it is"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a population of over 130 million 19 million ounces isn't much. They need to buy a lot more to get to about 1 ounce per capita which is good backing.

I was more impressed with the 600,000 ounces bought last month. Another couple of months like that and they will have overtaken the UK Toz/person.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

By Stewart Thomson, re gold, US $:

 

"A Sea-change is Coming" - from 321 gold

 

Approx 65% of all monetary transactions in the world involve US dollars. Think about that very very carefully. If the bankers were to create a "situation of insanity", where the dollar began to hyperinflate, or even appeared set to hyperinflate, a stampede out of dollars and into gold would take place. Think about the economic ramifications of such an event. It would be a global economic catastrophe of unprecedented size.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP price has surpassed 581 this morning. That's the highest we have seen since June.

 

Plus 580 was entered in January and stayed above that until june.

 

It's been sideways since June in a very narrow range. Hopefully that's built up the jet fuel we've been looking for to sauter past 1000.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP price has surpassed 581 this morning. That's the highest we have seen since June.

 

Plus 580 was entered in January and stayed above that until june.

 

It's been sideways since June in a very narrow range. Hopefully that's built up the jet fuel we've been looking for to sauter past 1000.

If you're still talking GBP then I rather doubt it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you're still talking GBP then I rather doubt it.

 

party-pooper! ;)

 

my mistake. Generally, though I mean "the next big move" up. No idea what that may be in GBP. £700 in the short term?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone now seems to be calling for an upside breakout - Chris Locke on cnbc this morning said he expected up upside breakout -I cannot find any negative views at this time - Also most people are calling on a weaker $ , which should be positive for Gold

 

appart from Dr B ? I still remain v.cautious - if there is a stock market crash I think the $ will quickly go up and gold down -

 

Any other short term views ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone now seems to be calling for an upside breakout - Chris Locke on cnbc this morning said he expected up upside breakout -I cannot find any negative views at this time - Also most people are calling on a weaker $ , which should be positive for Gold

 

appart from Dr B ? I still remain v.cautious - if there is a stock market crash I think the $ will quickly go up and gold down -

 

Any other short term views ?

 

GBP feels weak to me as does the rally in risky assets. I invested my final 50% of my Sterling cash pot into gold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chazza -- go you!

 

Everyone now seems to be calling for an upside breakout - Chris Locke on cnbc this morning said he expected up upside breakout -I cannot find any negative views at this time - Also most people are calling on a weaker $ , which should be positive for Gold

 

appart from Dr B ? I still remain v.cautious - if there is a stock market crash I think the $ will quickly go up and gold down -

 

Any other short term views ?

 

I think the dollar will go up in the crash, and gold down. That's the short-term. And then, it will turn. Dollar will crash and gold will go up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone now seems to be calling for an upside breakout - Chris Locke on cnbc this morning said he expected up upside breakout -I cannot find any negative views at this time - Also most people are calling on a weaker $ , which should be positive for Gold

 

appart from Dr B ? I still remain v.cautious - if there is a stock market crash I think the $ will quickly go up and gold down -

 

Any other short term views ?

 

Hoye maybe - http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=123012

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone now seems to be calling for an upside breakout - Chris Locke on cnbc this morning said he expected up upside breakout -I cannot find any negative views at this time - Also most people are calling on a weaker $ , which should be positive for Gold

 

appart from Dr B ? I still remain v.cautious - if there is a stock market crash I think the $ will quickly go up and gold down -

 

Any other short term views ?

I always get a little nervous when everyone is making the same call. Statistically, I wouldn't be surprised that if you made the opposite bet to the consensus you would come out on top.

 

I am wondering if we could see the market flat and a bit to the downside here before we get a final rally up. Then in the fall we might finally see the big dip.

 

Take with a heavy dose of salt of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chazza -- go you!

 

 

 

I think the dollar will go up in the crash, and gold down. That's the short-term. And then, it will turn. Dollar will crash and gold will go up.

 

So short term , say next month or so , sell gold and then reinvest after the correction .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So short term , say next month or so , sell gold and then reinvest after the correction .

 

No, not for me. I plan to hang onto my gold into the contraction, and then when it rebounds, trade it for silver.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I always get a little nervous when everyone is making the same call. Statistically, I wouldn't be surprised that if you made the opposite bet to the consensus you would come out on top.

 

I am wondering if we could see the market flat and a bit to the downside here before we get a final rally up. Then in the fall we might finally see the big dip.

 

Take with a heavy dose of salt of course.

 

I'm keen to keep watching the COT stats, with particular reference to Frizzer's call re a low in long commercial positions. Anyone know how to track this daily?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...