GOLD

[Jake]

Lower highs, Higher lows...For sure we are going somewhere soon. My own feeling is down into the 800's before coming back up again. We haven't had a correction to speak of yet and it's still August (just).

No buying from me till we have a move either way we can be sure of. But no selling either!

[G0ldfinger]

... We haven't had a correction to speak of yet and it's still August (just). ...

What about the 'correction' down to below $700 after it had reached $1,000?

 

EDIT: If there's a Brownian Motion behind it then it has infinitely many corrections every month anyway.

[TrueNorth]

speaking of the COT, here is an interesting piece:

 

Are The Bullion Banks Losing Their Grip On Gold And Silver?

 

Peter DeGraaf article on goldseek.com

 

In July 2008 the commercial gold traders (often referred to as the COT’s), were ‘net short’ 247,000 contracts. (This number is arrived at by deducting their total ‘long’ positions from their total ‘short’ positions). When this net short position gets high enough to satisfy them, (they were obviously happy with 247,000), they look for an opportunity to ‘cap a rally’, and then by selling heavily into the rally, they force hedge funds and margined traders to ‘cough up’ their long positions, so they can cover enough short positions to start the game over again. By September they were able to reduce their net short positions to 94,000 and they pocketed $250 per ounce in the process. Not bad for a 60 day effort.

 

They repeated this between late September with 141,000 net short positions, and covered in November by bringing their total down to 70,000, and again made a nice profit of $257 per ounce. Since then however, the pickings have become much slimmer ($150 in April and a measly $85 in July).

 

One wonders if perhaps too many people are finally catching on to the game and beating the commercials at their game, by buying gold before the COT’s have a chance to harvest what they had hoped to gain.

 

What if some Central Banks along with a few billionaires, together with a large number of small investors, began buying physical gold as they looked in horror at the profligate spending currently going on in Washington?

[Jake]

What about the 'correction' down to below $700 after it had reached $1,000?

 

 

 

Yep..that was a super buying opportunity. Lets hope for another!

 

I'm still hoping for 1650-10,000-moon btw, but not before a correction.

 

[azazel]

I would be suprised if gold plummets here. As Goldfinger says, we had a correction to $700 in 2008. I remember it well, like the vasectomy operation. The charts look bullish to me as the long term trend still looks up and the QE continues as do the economic problems and the threat of war spreading, and there has been no massive peak in gold or silver yet. Even the pound looks set to go down against the dollar here. Gold has held $950 well, even in late summer so I would think now is a good time to buy if you havent already. Ive noticed that theres hardley anything offered for sale on ebay recently and what is offered goes for higher prices than CID, on both gold and silver. I guess that the sellers have sold. Does this reflect the whole market? Certainly I am not selling anything in either physical or paper unless im offered more sterling for it. bigtbigt and DrBubb did well to sell in the spring but I would be panicing about buying back in now if I hadnt already.

[bitbigt]

I would be suprised if gold plummets here. As Goldfinger says, we had a correction to $700 in 2008. I remember it well, like the vasectomy operation. The charts look bullish to me as the long term trend still looks up and the QE continues as do the economic problems and the threat of war spreading, and there has been no massive peak in gold or silver yet. Even the pound looks set to go down against the dollar here. Gold has held $950 well, even in late summer so I would think now is a good time to buy if you havent already. Ive noticed that theres hardley anything offered for sale on ebay recently and what is offered goes for higher prices than CID, on both gold and silver. I guess that the sellers have sold. Does this reflect the whole market? Certainly I am not selling anything in either physical or paper unless im offered more sterling for it. bigtbigt and DrBubb did well to sell in the spring but I would be panicing about buying back in now if I hadnt already.

Let's be clear: gold has been sliding down in all currencies, unabated, for many months now. It is only GBP and USD weakness that has seen gold occasionally drift upwards as well.

 

So most people across the globe are NOT running to gold at the current time.

 

It might not take much for some of them to decide the cost of carry is no longer worth it, when the alternative of the stock market is rising by >10% per quarter.

 

Also, governments might raise base rates sooner than we all expect them to, meaning that several forms of risk-free investment will become attractive again, perhaps sucking more money out of gold.

 

Then there's the very powerful manipulators, who do not want the gold canary to get any attention.

 

So I'm still open to the possibility of another considerable leg down in the price of gold. ...but yes, I did start buying again at GBP 568 - just in case I'm wrong

 

[DoctorSolar]

Let's be clear: gold has been sliding down in all currencies, unabated, for many months now. It is only GBP and USD weakness that has seen gold occasionally drift upwards as well.

A quick look at the charts on bullionvault show that over the last quarter the price of gold in:

 

CAD is down 3%

EUR is down 5%

JPY is down 3%

AUS is down 6%

CHF is down 3%

 

Down yes but sliding down unabated makes it sound like gold is plummeting with no clear floor.

Im not sure that this view is really backed up by these charts.

For most currencies the drop occured at the beginning of June and price has seemingly stabilised some what since then range trading.

[bitbigt]

A quick look at the charts on bullionvault show that over the last quarter the price of gold in:

 

CAD is down 3%

EUR is down 5%

JPY is down 3%

AUS is down 6%

CHF is down 3%

 

Down yes but sliding down unabated makes it sound like gold is plummeting with no clear floor.

Im not sure that this view is really backed up by these charts.

For most currencies the drop occured at the beginning of June and price has seemingly stabilised some what since then range trading.

I tried to be precise...

"SLIDING" meaning gently, rather than FALLING, collapsing, tumbling

"UNABATED" meaning steadily & without change, rather than erratically, mostly, generally

 

But more to the point, I was trying to stress that gold is not globally on the rise. Instead, GBP and USD are (currently, transiently) on the fall

[warpig]

-1

 

Let's be clear: gold has been sliding down in all currencies, unabated, for many months now. It is only GBP and USD weakness that has seen gold occasionally drift upwards as well.

 

So most people across the globe are NOT running to gold at the current time.

 

It might not take much for some of them to decide the cost of carry is no longer worth it, when the alternative of the stock market is rising by >10% per quarter.

 

Also, governments might raise base rates sooner than we all expect them to, meaning that several forms of risk-free investment will become attractive again, perhaps sucking more money out of gold.

 

Then there's the very powerful manipulators, who do not want the gold canary to get any attention.

 

So I'm still open to the possibility of another considerable leg down in the price of gold. ...but yes, I did start buying again at GBP 568 - just in case I'm wrong

[warpig]

Sorry I meant to bold this bit.

 

Personally I think we've already taken the knock-back.

 

considerable leg down in the price of gold

 

-1

[Errol]

I'll take another drop right now. Please.

 

Especially in sterling.

[Compounded]

I'll take another drop right now. Please.

 

Especially in sterling.

 

+1

[FishingwithJesse]

Sorry I meant to bold this bit.

 

Personally I think we've already taken the knock-back.

 

hahaha.....You guys are so funny!

 

 

[FWIW]

Meant to post this yesterday but got sidetracked!

 

Anyway, something has got to happen in the next few days. I am sure the PPT are on red alert today.

 

 

Probably hard for you to see, but the 60 day SMA is about to move above the 50 day SMA, puttting all my little ducks in the right order. Also the midpoint median line is also there to lend some support.

 

More info here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/WeeklyComm...gNewsletter.php

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TrueNorth]

Excerpt from the latest Matterhorn Asset Management letter:

 

A wealth preservation portfolio should contain the following elements:

» Physical gold stored outside the banking system. Gold is likely to reach $1,400-$1,600 in 2009 and much higher in the next few years.

» A much smaller percentage of physical silver, also stored outside the banking system, Silver is considerably more volatile than gold so it is not for the faint hearted. Silver is currently $14.30 and could reach $25-30 in 2009 and considerably higher thereafter.

» Gold and some silver mining stocks in a combination of some of the majors and some junior mining companies. The gearing to price increases in gold and silver is substantial, especially in the juniors which could go up manifold

» Other potentially interesting sectors are; uranium and rare earth elements, food stuff and water stocks.

» Currency management will be critical. US dollar and UK pound should be totally avoided. Norwegian Kroner, Canadian dollar Euro, Swiss Francs and the Chinese Renminbi will do much better. But since all countries will be printing money gold will do considerably better than any other currency.

 

The following areas should be avoided in a wealth preservation portfolio:

» Long term bonds (especially in dollars and pounds). Interest rates will go up worldwide and bonds will drop

» General stockmarket investments. Could go up in inflationary terms but not in real terms. In the short term the Dow Jones could technically go as far as 10-11,000 before it resumes its downtrend. But P/E’s on reported trailing earnings are now above 60 so the market is very overextended and could turn at any time.

» Real estate, both commercial and residential. Could also go up in inflationary terms but will go down in real terms. Commercial property will become a major problem in coming months both for investors and the banks.

 

The highest level of wealth preservation is gold and silver stored outside the banking system and also outside the country where you reside. Therefore an important percentage of a portfolio should be in this area.

 

full article here: http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/newsl.../?newsletter=21

[FWIW]

Did you just see that?

 

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html

[TrueNorth]

Did you just see that?

 

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html

 

yes! silver popped over £9 too!

[hotairmail]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/28/69106/gold-war/

 

 

[romans holiday]

The spike in silver co-incided with a drop in the dollar index. Nervous nelly market.

[alexreeve]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/28/69106/gold-war/

$957 taken out. Dennis Gartman is very impressed atm.

[nicejim]

G:S below 65

[jamesspeed]

At this time what is driving gold prices apart from spectulation ?

 

Inflation - Not yet

 

$ crash - perhaps but if stock markets have a correction $ rise .

 

I think markets are on a knife edge but more likely to fall than rise .

[romans holiday]

At this time what is driving gold prices apart from spectulation ?

 

Inflation - Not yet

 

$ crash - perhaps but if stock markets have a correction $ rise .

 

I think markets are on a knife edge but more likely to fall than rise .

Quite the opposite of speculation imo.... capital flight.

 

Yen is also strengthening.

[TrueNorth]

I'll be interested to hear what Bob Hoye has to say later today on his Friday wrap-up on Howe Street.

 

audio interview page

[Pixel8r]

At this time what is driving gold prices apart from spectulation ?

 

Inflation - Not yet

 

$ crash - perhaps but if stock markets have a correction $ rise .

 

I think markets are on a knife edge but more likely to fall than rise .

You sound like the politicians when oil was at $140, speculators are to blame. It's just people protecting their wealth ahead of the surge in prices expected in September. Think you are wrong expecting a drop is more likely than a rise. As I was saying earlier support is at $940 and resistance at around $965.

 

I think we will see a strong move through $1000 in September, on our way to a target of around $1400. Could happen as soon as next week, if the FED are forced to announce which banks got the money, as the court ruled this week.