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Either way, it's just another doubt to add to the list. Buy physical.

 

Perhaps we should start a thread along the same lines as Steve Netwriters recent "little project for all the goldbugs" thread i.e. Why PM ETF's are a good idea......anyone??

ETFs can be held in an ISA (for the UK) so when you quadruple your GBP wealth between now and March (!) you don't get taxed on the gains.

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Good interview here with Roger Weigand.

 

He expects a very big drop in the stock markets in September, and expects juniors to really get hit. He has some advice about what to do if you hold shares, particularly in the juniors.

 

Roger Weigand: Intv with The Gold Report

 

Some very, very interesting things are on the table this fall—in the fundamentals, in foreign relations, in government, in credit, in the dollar, in bonds and in international markets. It could get pretty exciting, it really could.

 

and

 

I think 80% of this whole rally in precious metals is ahead of us. It could come this winter, it could be a year from this winter, but we're getting closer and it's going to be very interesting. Everything we have done since 2001 is just opening the door. We haven't seen anything yet.

 

. . . .

 

I think we have a little more time for the final shares' thrust to the top. There may be room for one more wave up. And, then after Labor Day and moving on into September, we'll hit the spot where we're predicting the big sell. The date we think when markets are going to drop is September 15.

 

TGR: You also projected that the Dow could rally up to nearly 10,400. Do you still see that happening before September 15?

 

RW: There's a chance, but I now think 9,800 is more probable. Months ago we said 10,400-10,800, but I give it a 1-in-3 chance for it to rise to 10,400 now.

 

TGR: When it drops, how low will it go?

 

RW: In a longer drop, technically on Elliott Wave theory, instead of doing an ABC sideways channel-type correction or going into a continuation triangle; prices can begin selling down in steps and stairs in a full five waves, first on the dailies and then into the weekly. It depends on how severe certain things get—we can't measure that—but technically we could go back to 6,600-7,250 on the Dow this fall.

 

TGR: What would that mean for worldwide markets?

 

RW: Well, it's going to be pretty bad. The last time we went through this, the big stock market went down and gold and silver and some of the other markets still had some remaining power and, still earned quite a bit of money. The thing that really irritates me is the fact that people who owned both precious metals and related stocks had to get out of the precious metals. They had to raise cash to cover their other problems. Many have learned from the lesson and this time I don't think they are so far out or so long in a lot of the shares.

 

The major difference—and this is very important—is the juniors. A handful of juniors are so good that we're almost ready to say, "Just hang on, despite knowing you're going to get hit on the head probably in September-October. You're not going to be able to put your money exactly where you want to, so it may be better to hang on or sell half and keep half and then buy in again after the end of October."

 

TGR: So you'd be inclined to hold on?

 

RW: I see three options. You can hold and grit your teeth knowing you might get cut in half. That's pretty typical and I think it could happen. Or you can sell half and keep half, knowing that the half you keep might get cut in half. Or you could sell it all, deal with your tax event if you've had some good gains, and then be careful about when you get back in.

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Perhaps this will mean all the difference to silver this time round...

 

The thing that really irritates me is the fact that people who owned both precious metals and related stocks had to get out of the precious metals. They had to raise cash to cover their other problems. Many have learned from the lesson and this time I don't think they are so far out or so long in a lot of the shares.

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POG seems to be holding firm in the face of the equity sell off today.

 

It'll be interesting if it can contiune to hold during a big selloff - may reflect the reduced leverage that the big selloff last year has caused?

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Big price increases in gold and silver in GBP. Now 592 and 9.29 £ per ounce on GM.

 

Only 956 and 15.01 in $.

 

Pound suffering.

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Big price increases in gold and silver in GBP. Now 592 and 9.29 £ per ounce on GM.

...

Pound suffering.

 

Well, happy 'gold season' everyone

Lets hope 2009 follows the seasonality script.

...

 

Good that I just bought a few more Sovs then. :)

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POG seems to be holding firm in the face of the equity sell off today.

 

It'll be interesting if it can contiune to hold during a big selloff - may reflect the reduced leverage that the big selloff last year has caused?

 

Let's hope so. Even so I dumped a lot of PM stocks last week. Although I still have my physical I can't help but feel we're going to take a real beating between now and Christmas.

 

Fingers crossed I'm wrong. :unsure:

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Hey guys, could anyone provide me with links to the threads where PM ETFs get discussed, i.e. why you shouldn't really invest with them? ;)

 

Cheers.

 

Hi, GF I know you know all this already but for anyone new to this the following clip highlights all the dangers. No one in their right mind would consider these ETFs or futures an investment in gold or silver. Buy physical ONLY or shares in good mining companies.

 

From:

 

 

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POG seems to be holding firm in the face of the equity sell off today.

 

It'll be interesting if it can contiune to hold during a big selloff - may reflect the reduced leverage that the big selloff last year has caused?

 

Interestingly, POG is holding up despite strength in the USD, hence price rises in both EUR and GBP! Inverse relationship broken for now?

pog_v_usd.pdf

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Let's hope so. Even so I dumped a lot of PM stocks last week. Although I still have my physical I can't help but feel we're going to take a real beating between now and Christmas.

 

Fingers crossed I'm wrong. :unsure:

 

I think that after the thorough beating we all took last year, we're all kind of pre-wincing like waiting for the punch.

 

Lets hope todays price actions heralds a change in correlations

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I think that after the thorough beating we all took last year, we're all kind of pre-wincing like waiting for the punch.

 

Lets hope todays price actions heralds a change in correlations

I'm setting myself up to be burned here, but I think I agree; It's become apparent to most people that Gold (above almost all other assets) has held it's own in the deleveraging we saw. If there were to be another round of deleveraging, the past track record could attract safe-haven 'track-record' buyers - which didn't happen before, as there was practically no recent historical example of this kind of crisis. Alternatively, we just go into mad inflation early next year and up we go. I see a win-win. As I said, this kind of heady optimism usually comes before a fall. Intrest rates to 15% anyone?

 

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... Intrest rates to 15% anyone?

It's not possible, not politically practical. There is no real way around hyperinflation. King must know this.

 

Imagine all these BTLers, FTBers etc. dangling over the Property Precipice at 15%! :o

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It's not possible, not politically practical. There is no real way around hyperinflation. King must know this.

 

Imagine all these BTLers, FTBers etc. dangling over the Property Precipice at 15%! :o

 

 

Nice image, I will sleep with a smile on my face tonight. :lol:

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Yes, 15% would be like watching a tank shell impact on a watermelon! :D

 

On a lighter note, I saw this from Richard Russell today.. I had seen these rumors too, but thought it a bit laughable. Now I'm not too sure.

Latest gold rumor -- you've seen all those ads to buy gold. The rumor is that the government is behind those ads, and that the government will buy back all the gold that comes in from the advertisers for $1300 or more. In that way, the government will take as much gold back as possible from Americans.

 

EDIT for fun...

bernanke_4.jpg

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Dr Vince Hooper from the Australian School of Business at the Univ of NSW warns that a second economic shock wave is on its way

 

Listen here:

http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/rn/podcast/200...090829_0732.mp3

 

Dr Vince Hooper from the Australian School of Business at the University of NSW warns that a second economic shock wave is on its way.

 

And this time it will emanate from Europe.

 

A little reminder why some people feel holding some gold is a good idea.

 

Also:

 

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2662249.htm

 

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I'm going to repeat this post from DoctorSolar near the end of the last thread

 

Hey guys, could anyone provide me with links to the threads where PM ETFs get discussed, i.e. why you shouldn't really invest with them? ;)

 

Cheers.

 

Hi, GF I know you know all this already but for anyone new to this the following clip highlights all the dangers. No one in their right mind would consider these ETFs or futures an investment in gold or silver. Buy physical ONLY or shares in good mining companies.

 

From:

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From the Gary North article on the other gold thread.

 

'Would gold do well in a deflationary environment? That would depend on people's confidence in the banks. If they truly distrust the banks, they would demand currency. There isn't enough currency to meet the needs of trade. Prices would fall, increasing the value of currency. I would rather have paper money than gold in a deflationary environment.

 

But will we get a deflationary environment? We have not seen this since 1933. That is a long time for one policy to dominate: inflation. Yet it has dominated.

 

The case for gold is mainly the case for inflation. I have read many deflationary cases for gold since 1974. Not one of them made much sense, and all of them were wrong in forecasting deflation.

 

The average person does not recognize gold coins. Gold therefore cannot function as money, except among central bankers. But the free market case for the gold standard is the case against central banking. It is the case for a system of currency based on individual decisions. Men have been outside of a gold- based monetary system for so long that it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which it would become the currency of choice.'

 

 

And now from Alf Fields,

 

 

'How will the current crisis end?

 

How will the current crisis end? As mentioned, this is a war between fiat money and sound money. It is extremely unlikely that Governments will voluntarily give up their freedom to create fiat money at will. They will have to reach a point where there is no alternative to introducing sound money because citizens finally refuse to accept the fiat currencies. This journey will probably be decidedly unpleasant.

 

Fiat money will survive for as long as people are prepared to accept it in payment for goods and services. The end will come when the general populace rejects the fiat currency in favour of sound or "good" money.

 

The bottom line is that it is the people who will finally decide when this crisis will end, when they reject bad money and force the good, sound money into circulation.'

 

 

 

So we 'need' a currency crises to lull us from our stupor like Zimbabwe just had? Or something skin to that. Their situation has improved now foreign currency is allowed to be used, what will it be like IF all currencies are in a similar boat as the Zimbabwe currency was? Everyone scrabbling around for flecks of gold in the scottish rivers? Someone posted a video of that in Zimbabwe some months ago, it wasn't a pretty picture. God only knows what would happen in the west under similar circumstances.

 

Anyone remember where that vid is please post it again here for the benefit of those who missed it.

 

Once again read these words from the above quote (and check out Alf Field)

 

'How will the current crisis end? As mentioned, this is a war between fiat money and sound money. It is extremely unlikely that Governments will voluntarily give up their freedom to create fiat money at will. They will have to reach a point where there is no alternative to introducing sound money because citizens finally refuse to accept the fiat currencies. This journey will probably be decidedly unpleasant'

 

Jake.

 

 

 

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The bottom line is that it is the people who will finally decide when this crisis will end, when they reject bad money and force the good, sound money into circulation.'

 

This is what concerns me about Britain; (& possibly why dumming down has been introduced?)

 

Is someone who has just voted for their favourite on X-Factor capable of broad-based conceptual thought?

 

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