GOLD

[wren]

He's a lawyer - what can you expect?

I didn't know that. Really?

 

[G0ldfinger]

I didn't know that. Really?

He once said so.

 

As a lawyer he (in expectation!) lacks the physical/quantitative knowledge and logical abilities* to judge gold and the current market situation in a proper way. To make up for it, he tries to "win" the conversation with whatever arguments seem usable - the more the better.

 

Anyone who doubts what I wrote above, just look at how FUBAR the banking system is, and then consider that CEOs, regulators and politicians are often lawyers.

 

 

 

* I know, I know, some people think that law is logic - maybe it is. The point is, had he got these kind of abilities, he would be more likely to have a natural sciences background.

 

EDIT: Knavel is a lawyer, right? Let's hope he won't read this.

[fitkid]

Likewise. I was at a large training course a couple of weeks ago and I had a number of conversations about the state of the world and the role gold could play. People had no idea how easy it is to protect yourself. I took a canadian maple in to show people - really did get their interest going...

I went to hay-on-wye on sunday one of my favourite places it is known as the 'town of books' due to the fact that just about every shop there is a book shop picked up a couple of old books one called THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND published 1964 author shigeo horie a graduate of tokyo university entered banking in 1928 in 1957 he became chairman and president of the bank of tokyo.Half the book is about the gold standard and the reason why the IMF was set up.He talks about breton woods extensively and keynes involvement and their aims and desires within the design of the IMF framework.It is apparent to me from reading that the excesses that we are now seeing in credit expansion were known and discussed and that it is clearly a system of design/desire.I feel that as whith all things a circle or wheel of life is in motion and that in the economic cycle we are closing in on the end days of this current cycle.Does that intale a total reset to the begining of the next cycle and a return to HONEST MONEY??? i certainly hope so.We might see some sanity back in the world again.

 

[wren]

hey GF,

 

RB makes me laugh over at hpc with his total deflationary stance:

 

Injin gives you a mention.

I stuck my ore into that thread pointing out that historically gold has done well during deflation.

 

It might cause some cognitive dissonance.

 

Many seem not to know the history of gold prior to 1970.

 

[fitkid]

15 years ago i was a retained fire fighter. Periodically the chief fire officer would come down and give us a social visit to air any issues and relay any news developments etc. It was not long after 9/11 and the government were waxing lyrical about the anti terrorist strategies and the amount of money they had spent on specialist equipment for the emergency services.I asked what and when we were getting all our specialist equipment to which he replied we were not getting any he then went on to say what a load of boll**** it was and then explained what we would do in the event of a dirty bomb or similar chemical type attack.we would take 2 appliances(fire engines) park them side by side a few metres apart put a tarpauling over the top get the public stripped and direct them betweeen the appliances towards the firefighter at the other end who would hose down the contaminated people i joke not.We then went on to talk about his nearing retirement he explained that he had joined the brigade in the 1970's along with 25% of the current personnel (the baby boomers) and that a tremendous financial burden would be placed on the fire authorities due to the huge pension commitments (fire personnel retire at 55) that would be faced with 25% of the brigade retiring.As an example he stated that the pension commitments for the london fire authority annually was MORE than the whole budget for its annual operation costs.WOW i thought we are fooked.

ITS ALL ONE BIG PONZI SCHEME GET ON YOUR SEAT B4 THE MUSIC STOPS!!!

[grumpy-old-man]

He's a lawyer - what can you expect?

 

[electroweak]

Any comments on this:-

 

 

Tuesday September 29, 02:24 PM

ECB-Gold reserves drop by 58 mln euros in week

FRANKFURT, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Gold and gold receivables held by euro zone central banks fell by 58 million euros to 231.9 billion euros in the week ending September 25, the European Central Bank said on Tuesday.

 

Net foreign exchange reserves in the Eurosystem of central banks fell by 1 billion euros to 189.2 billion euros, the ECB said in its regular weekly consolidated financial statement.

 

Gold holdings fell because of the sale of gold by one euro zone central bank. The ECB said the move was consistent with the 2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement.

......

so the Central banks sold 85,000 ounces...hmm.....

 

Comex registered gold ounces

28/9/2009 : 2,239,074

18/9/2009: 2,193,875

 

 

[romans holiday]

The only true measures i feel are the fundamentals and whats realy happening in the real world not MSM manipulated lies damn lies and statistics.Putting charts aside why do you feel that there is going to be a sharp correction in price downwards romans please provide me with something of substance not a chart whith an opinion.

Fundamentals are also central to my view on things. But I am not much interested in looking for some certainty in the markets. There are no certainties and those that think they have them will most probably be certainly wrong. Far from replacing one certainty for another, my position it is more about exercising a healthy skepticism towards dogmas and then hedging.

 

As far as fundamentals go, I have a theory, that of hyper-deflation, which I do not take dogmatically. I take it to be only provisionally true until falsified by the real world [so far, I believe, it is being verified]. The basic idea is that real value will slowly erode from all assets including certain currencies. I include currencies in the asset class due to the fact they are traded freely as commodities on the fx market and capital could flee easily from one to another [this also incorporates the idea of future currency crises]. Based on this theory, one should take large positions in the strongest of currencies. These currencies would include gold, silver, Yen, the dollar [the reserve currency could also be the wildcard] and perhaps a commodity currency [though I think silver covers this better]. These currencies also hedge each-other

 

This is the long term "back-drop" that the buy and hold investor type should be interested in. Against this back-drop, in the short/medium term, things get more interesting due to the fact that investors are largely divided between inflationary and deflationary macro-economic views.... not to mention the average highly leveraged consumer's view/behaviour which is deflationary. This should set up "cross currents" in the market where at times inflation concern is in the ascendency, and then at others deflationary concern. This should lead to massive volatility in the market, and confusion in the minds of investors as they struggle to put a value on assets.

 

Those with a view of how the short term volatility is likely to play out in the long term have a huge advantage in my opinion. They will be in a position to not only expect market behaviour which seems to negate their long term position, but also be in a short term position to take advantage of it. For example, I expect silver to at some time tank on the back of a renewed risk aversion trade [gold I expect to remain relatively stable with a floor at 900]. Expecting this event, I will be in a "contrary" currency, such as Yen, which should strengthen when commodity currencies, and silver, weaken. Rather than being rattled, I would then buy silver on weakness knowing that it will bounce back again and remain a beneficiary of latter inflation concerns [on the peak of a latter inflation trade in the market, I would swap to gold]. Psychology should also be a central part of the investors strategy here as if you are free of anxiety and emotion, when the market, isn't it will enable you to cooly make the correct decisions.

 

I hope this provides a little substance to my views. In main, my views are based on my own macro-economic view [which I think is essential to an investor/trader today]. If the investor doesn't have such a view, he would be like being all out at sea without a compass, being tossed this way and that. This is the way I expect the market to behave in the near future.

 

Regards.

[wee Jinky]

15 years ago i was a retained fire fighter. Periodically the chief fire officer would come down and give us a social visit to air any issues and relay any news developments etc. It was not long after 9/11 and the government were waxing lyrical about the anti terrorist strategies and the amount of money they had spent on specialist equipment for the emergency services.I asked what and when we were getting all our specialist equipment to which he replied we were not getting any he then went on to say what a load of boll**** it was and then explained what we would do in the event of a dirty bomb or similar chemical type attack.we would take 2 appliances(fire engines) park them side by side a few metres apart put a tarpauling over the top get the public stripped and direct them betweeen the appliances towards the firefighter at the other end who would hose down the contaminated people i joke not.We then went on to talk about his nearing retirement he explained that he had joined the brigade in the 1970's along with 25% of the current personnel (the baby boomers) and that a tremendous financial burden would be placed on the fire authorities due to the huge pension commitments (fire personnel retire at 55) that would be faced with 25% of the brigade retiring.As an example he stated that the pension commitments for the london fire authority annually was MORE than the whole budget for its annual operation costs.WOW i thought we are fooked.

ITS ALL ONE BIG PONZI SCHEME GET ON YOUR SEAT B4 THE MUSIC STOPS!!!

 

 

I joined the Glasgow fire service in 1979

stayed for 5 yrs before I was retired on medical grounds (P.T.S.)

didnt get a penny in compensation and was never contacted bythe FBU

until a few months ago when I e mailed them to ask why ?

Well its all a long time ago now and most of your colleagues would have left by now

Sorry nothing we can do !!

I wasnt after anything but a reply to see their reaction, after all they had

5yrs worth of my union subscriptions to help pay for their Conference hotel bills

and beer fund .

Treated like shoite then and now and I wasnt the only one.

As for the equipment you got to do your job it was laughable and the

action plan for the incident you mentioned above doesnt seem to have changed at all

 

[warpig]

Gold $1000+ again.

[grumpy-old-man]

Gold $1000+ again.

 

yes the Realistbear Contra Gold Indicator still working fine I see.

 

RBGCI

[nicejim]

Gold $1000+ again.

Deja vu all over again

[romans holiday]

Deja vu all over again

Groundhog Day?

[wee Jinky]

It usually gets a kick down an hour or 2 before the US market opens

 

got to give the master race the best buying deal

[romans holiday]

It usually gets a kick down an hour or 2 before the US market opens

 

got to give the master race the best buying deal

Looks like the dollar's getting the kicking today.

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

It still amazes me just how financially dumbed down and ignorant people are and there is'nt even any FLOURIDE in our water.

 

[electroweak]

I certainly see alot of wishful thinking from some posters who have either traded metal and want to buy back in or are still trying to reach their target allocation and are constantly hoping for lower prices to facilatate this.

The way i see it everyone who i have contact with i advise them towards getting some exposure to physical metal i know from the response that people are now listening most unfortunately have not got any spare fiat to get that exposure but at least i feel that i have done my good deed for the day.It still amazes me just how financially dumbed down and ignorant people are and there is'nt even any FLOURIDE in our water.

If you were purchasing physical metal each month, and wanted to try to get the best deal by waiting for a 'smackdown', what is the core position you'd want before waiting up to a month (ie have two purchases outstanding) and not feel concerned?

 

By this, I mean if you already had a core position (say 50 oz) and wanted to add (say) 1 ounce per month that would seem fine to me.

However, if your core position was just 10 oz, then buy 1 oz per month without thinking, right?!

 

At what level (core / monthly percent) do people think it becomes acceptable to try to time it to some degree?

I think it's probably about the 3 percent level for me.

[HPCSucks]

yes the Realistbear Contra Gold Indicator still working fine I see.

 

RBGCI

Triple tops nearly always end in disaster. I wonder what he thinks quadruple tops lead to.

[romans holiday]

If you were purchasing physical metal each month, and wanted to try to get the best deal by waiting for a 'smackdown', what is the core position you'd want before waiting up to a month (ie have two purchases outstanding) and not feel concerned?

 

By this, I mean if you already had a core position (say 50 oz) and wanted to add (say) 1 ounce per month that would seem fine to me.

However, if your core position was just 10 oz, then buy 1 oz per month without thinking, right?!

 

At what level (core / monthly percent) do people think it becomes acceptable to try to time it to some degree?

I think it's probably about the 3 percent level for me.

With gold I wouldn't try to "time" it as much as I would for silver, as gold is a lot more stable. That said, if you have up to 50% of your liquid worth in gold then what is the rush?

 

With silver it is a much different story in my opinion. Being a lot more speculative and volatile, you ought to wait for a good price.... assuming you have a solid position in gold already.

[grumpy-old-man]

With gold I wouldn't try to "time" it as much as I would for silver, as gold is a lot more stable. That said, if you have up to 50% of your liquid worth in gold then what is the rush?

 

With silver it is a much different story in my opinion. Being a lot more speculative and volatile, you ought to wait for a good price.... assuming you have a solid position in gold already.

 

what happens if all of a sudden they run out of coins &/or bars, OR the premiums shoot up overnight for a few nights/weeks running ?

 

I took no chances, I am in the 'you won't be able to source/buy them soon' camp. I just think we are standing on the precipice......

 

edited - I mean when the ETF scam crumbles & the large investors try to swap for physical.....

[warpig]

I agree, but this market has traded a lot longer than I expected and I'm sure I'll be surprised how much longer it can be traded. Ultimately you're right, it will blow up and that will be difficult to time.

 

what happens if all of a sudden they run out of coins &/or bars, OR the premiums shoot up overnight for a few nights/weeks running ?

 

I took no chances, I am in the 'you won't be able to source/buy them soon' camp. I just think we are standing on the precipice......

 

edited - I mean when the ETF scam crumbles & the large investors try to swap for physical.....

[romans holiday]

what happens if all of a sudden they run out of coins &/or bars, OR the premiums shoot up overnight for a few nights/weeks running ?

 

I took no chances, I am in the 'you won't be able to source/buy them soon' camp. I just think we are standing on the precipice......

 

edited - I mean when the ETF scam crumbles & the large investors try to swap for physical.....

As I said, you should first have a solid position. Could be different strokes for different folks here.... the main thing is to be comfortable, and anxiety free. with what you have. Also, keep in mind that anxiety can potentially arise from having too large a position as having too small a one. It really comes down to the individual.

[grumpy-old-man]

thought I would post Cyclist's comments from Kitcomm:

 

clicky linky

 

comment in brackets with RH is mine.

 

"November will be a currency crisis month,where the IMF is to sell some bullion as well.The Yen is expected to make a parabolic move IMO within the same timeframe.That will make the mainmarket go into a tailspin,uncovering financial blackholes in the system.The retail and transportation sector will get

creamed.Again deflation yes but not in necessities(one for RH ) .Supply destruction will lay the groundwork for inflation in the coming years.In the oil and gas field ,wells are being shut in and people laid off.The worst from what I have heard is still to come."

 

what are your thoughts on this post please ?

 

Have we got a lot of expiration of debt (bonds/gilts) in Nov that needs renewing ? (both goverment issued & corporate bonds) or any other quarterly/yearly major financials in the offing?

 

 

 

 

 

[Rosco]

 

From Mish's blog;

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...moking-gun.html

[romans holiday]

I agree, but this market has traded a lot longer than I expected and I'm sure I'll be surprised how much longer it can be traded. Ultimately you're right, it will blow up and that will be difficult to time.

I agree that "timing" is a mug's game. I think it is more about hedging and then hedging with the potential to buy at low prices [silver anyway]. With hedging you are waiting for the market to come to you, rather than chasing it.