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As I said, you should first have a solid position. Could be different strokes for different folks here.... the main thing is to be comfortable, and anxiety free. with what you have. Also, keep in mind that anxiety can potentially arise from having too large a position as having too small a one. It really comes down to the individual.

 

yes fair points RH, especially that last bit.

 

Mrs GOM & I talked it through, & we agreed that if silver & gold prices goes tits up & the deflationists are right (99% sure it will never happen of course ;)) , then we just sit on the pm's & pass them onto the children for them to realise the profits in 2050 for example.

 

you are right though, for each of us it will be different, it being prepared for getting it potentially wrong that's the equally important bit imo.

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thought I would post Cyclist's comments from Kitcomm:

 

clicky linky

 

comment in brackets with RH is mine. :D

 

"November will be a currency crisis month,where the IMF is to sell some bullion as well.The Yen is expected to make a parabolic move IMO within the same timeframe.That will make the mainmarket go into a tailspin,uncovering financial blackholes in the system.The retail and transportation sector will get

creamed.Again deflation yes but not in necessities(one for RH ;)) .Supply destruction will lay the groundwork for inflation in the coming years.In the oil and gas field ,wells are being shut in and people laid off.The worst from what I have heard is still to come."

 

what are your thoughts on this post please ?

 

Have we got a lot of expiration of debt (bonds/gilts) in Nov that needs renewing ? (both goverment issued & corporate bonds) or any other quarterly/yearly major financials in the offing?

I think another meltdown in the not too distant future is likely. This will see a spike in the dollar and Yen and a collapse in asset prices. I am not so sure about the "biflationary thesis" where necessities/consumable goods become more expensive. If a full-on deflationary environment eventuates then there will be plenty of downward pressures on prices to counter the upward ones. Most are envisaging that a weaker currency will lead to higher prices in oil and imports etc... but I am not so sure of this [just heard a podcast today stating year on year consumption of gas is down 30% in the US :o ]. Exporting nations will see their markets shrink quickly and will drop prices quickly also. Local currencies will retain there nominal worth at the local level in so far as money becomes more valued by consumers and hoarded [countering upward pressure on prices]. It is only at the international level [and as far as investors are concerned] that currencies will devalue; they will devalue against stronger currencies such as gold, silver and perhaps some other Asian currencies. They might not devalue against local assets.

 

At the national level you would just see stagnation; asset prices might go nowhere or even decrease against the currency as you would expect in deflation. However, keeping in mind that local currencies themselves are deflating in value against stronger ones there is a double depreciation in asset prices going on here; as priced in the local currency an asset depreciates, yet that currency itself could well depreciate against a stronger one such as gold. Where an asset price might halve when priced in the local currency, it may well quarter against gold.

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Deflation isn't bad for gold, quite the contrary.

 

yes fair points RH, especially that last bit.

 

Mrs GOM & I talked it through, & we agreed that if silver & gold prices goes tits up & the deflationists are right (99% sure it will never happen of course ;) ) , then we just sit on the pm's & pass them onto the children for them to realise the profits in 2050 for example.

 

you are right though, for each of us it will be different, it being prepared for getting it potentially wrong that's the equally important bit imo.

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what happens if all of a sudden they run out of coins &/or bars, OR the premiums shoot up overnight for a few nights/weeks running ?

 

I took no chances, I am in the 'you won't be able to source/buy them soon' camp. I just think we are standing on the precipice......

 

edited - I mean when the ETF scam crumbles & the large investors try to swap for physical.....

Yes, but my point is if you are only talking about a purchase that increases your holding by 3% or less, would you try to time it a little?

The risk of them running out is not a worry, you already have ~97% of your wealth you wish to be in gold parked in bars/coins.

 

I ask again, what percentage would people feel comfortable with trying to time (within a month or two?)

1% or less?

3% (my vote)

5%

10%

???????

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yes fair points RH, especially that last bit.

 

Mrs GOM & I talked it through, & we agreed that if silver & gold prices goes tits up & the deflationists are right (99% sure it will never happen of course ;)) , then we just sit on the pm's & pass them onto the children for them to realise the profits in 2050 for example.

 

you are right though, for each of us it will be different, it being prepared for getting it potentially wrong that's the equally important bit imo.

Though I make a song and dance about deflation, I certainly do not consider myself a conventional deflationist. For me, it is a matter of incorporating the valid points of deflation with the likelihood that currencies will indeed depreciate in a very real sense this time round.

 

This unified view I have termed hyper-deflation. The other theory will most likely lead to unexpected/ undesirable behaviour in the market. :rolleyes:

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Though I make a song and dance about deflation, I certainly do not consider myself a conventional deflationist. For me, it is a matter of incorporating the valid points of deflation with the likelihood that currencies will indeed depreciate in a very real sense this time round.

 

This unified view I have termed hyper-deflation. The other theory will most likely lead to unexpected/ undesirable behaviour in the market. :rolleyes:

 

perhaps not, but you are expecting a deflationary overall outcome from this imo. :)

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yes I appreciate that warpig, but inflationary environment is better I believe, especially for silver ?

The way I see it is that silver, being more speculative, is quite vulnerable to being sold off. But I think it will also bounce back well which makes it a very interesting investment vehicle. With this in mind, I consider silver good for speculation, and gold good for saving.

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The way I see it is that silver, being more speculative, is quite vulnerable to being sold off. But I think it will also bounce back well which makes it a very interesting investment vehicle. With this in mind, I consider silver good for speculation, and gold good for saving.

 

hye, I am hoping in comes with a chinese stamp of approval. Full of Eastern promise. ;)

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perhaps not, but you are expecting a deflationary overall outcome from this imo. :)

For sure, which is why deflation has to be reckoned with...albeit unconventionally.

 

Once gold is considered a currency [remonetized in the minds of investors/nations], and that certain other currencies are being debased/ devalued, then it is a pretty good bet gold will perform well. Inflation is quite unnecessary.

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what happens if all of a sudden they run out of coins &/or bars, OR the premiums shoot up overnight for a few nights/weeks running ?

 

I took no chances, I am in the 'you won't be able to source/buy them soon' camp. I just think we are standing on the precipice......

 

edited - I mean when the ETF scam crumbles & the large investors try to swap for physical.....

+1 i could'nt agree more

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Here is my good deed for the day to my fellow posters they have 50 sovs and a couple of krugers will sell at spot.

 

 

Crewe Jewellers & Pawnbrokers

 

21 Victoria St

Crewe

CW1 2HF

 

t/ 0800 0568440

e/ info@crewepawnbrokers&jewellers.co.uk

Money lent on jewellery & watches.Gold, silver & coins bought for cash.Jewellery repairs on site. Specalist watch battery service.Jewellery valuations.Pay day loans.Cheque cashing service

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Fundamentals are also central to my view on things. But I am not much interested in looking for some certainty in the markets. There are no certainties and those that think they have them will most probably be certainly wrong. Far from replacing one certainty for another, my position it is more about exercising a healthy skepticism towards dogmas and then hedging.

 

As far as fundamentals go, I have a theory, that of hyper-deflation, which I do not take dogmatically. I take it to be only provisionally true until falsified by the real world [so far, I believe, it is being verified]. The basic idea is that real value will slowly erode from all assets including certain currencies. I include currencies in the asset class due to the fact they are traded freely as commodities on the fx market and capital could flee easily from one to another [this also incorporates the idea of future currency crises]. Based on this theory, one should take large positions in the strongest of currencies. These currencies would include gold, silver, Yen, the dollar [the reserve currency could also be the wildcard] and perhaps a commodity currency [though I think silver covers this better]. These currencies also hedge each-other

 

This is the long term "back-drop" that the buy and hold investor type should be interested in. Against this back-drop, in the short/medium term, things get more interesting due to the fact that investors are largely divided between inflationary and deflationary macro-economic views.... not to mention the average highly leveraged consumer's view/behaviour which is deflationary. This should set up "cross currents" in the market where at times inflation concern is in the ascendency, and then at others deflationary concern. This should lead to massive volatility in the market, and confusion in the minds of investors as they struggle to put a value on assets.

 

Those with a view of how the short term volatility is likely to play out in the long term have a huge advantage in my opinion. They will be in a position to not only expect market behaviour which seems to negate their long term position, but also be in a short term position to take advantage of it. For example, I expect silver to at some time tank on the back of a renewed risk aversion trade [gold I expect to remain relatively stable with a floor at 900]. Expecting this event, I will be in a "contrary" currency, such as Yen, which should strengthen when commodity currencies, and silver, weaken. Rather than being rattled, I would then buy silver on weakness knowing that it will bounce back again and remain a beneficiary of latter inflation concerns [on the peak of a latter inflation trade in the market, I would swap to gold]. Psychology should also be a central part of the investors strategy here as if you are free of anxiety and emotion, when the market, isn't it will enable you to cooly make the correct decisions.

 

I hope this provides a little substance to my views. In main, my views are based on my own macro-economic view [which I think is essential to an investor/trader today]. If the investor doesn't have such a view, he would be like being all out at sea without a compass, being tossed this way and that. This is the way I expect the market to behave in the near future.

 

Regards.

 

i certainly understand your position BUT WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW IS TRADING REALY WORTH IT HOW MUCH MONEY ARE PEOPLE REALY MAKING DIPPING IN AND OUT.I know last year when gold went to £690 an oz i could have cashed in with the hindsight and made serious money and bought it all back again at the lower rate but was not in a position to as was abroad travelling at the time.

 

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i certainly understand your position BUT WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW IS TRADING REALY WORTH IT HOW MUCH MONEY ARE PEOPLE REALY MAKING DIPPING IN AND OUT.I know last year when gold went to £690 an oz i could have cashed in with the hindsight and made serious money and bought it all back again at the lower rate but was not in a position to as was abroad travelling at the time.

I do not even bother trying to trade the minor moves. Trying to chase or time the market is futile imo and you'll end up just tying yourself up in knots. Instead I simply keep a large cash position besides an even larger bullion position and wait for the right market conditions. It is both a hedge and provides the opportunity to buy bullion silver cheaply on the big dips if/when they come. I consider profits taken only after accumulating further gold cheaply; buy silver with cash on the big dip, then swap silver to gold when the ratio gets to around 50. As for making money from this strategy, the next few months will be lucrative if silver is volatile to both the up and down side.

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The Guardian Jewellery Co

48 carver street

Birmingham

B1 3AS

0121-236-6619

 

everyone must have heard of this company even if you did'nt realise it.They are the company behind alot if not all the shopping centre WE BUY YOUR GOLD stalls and huge newspaper ads.I have spoken to people about them and even rang them to find out if i could buy from them no is the answer i got/get.No one i have yet spoken to Knows what they are doing whith their gold i have heard various rumours.

ANY BODY GET ANY INFO

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I do not even bother trying to trade the minor moves. Trying to chase or time the market is futile imo and you'll end up just tying yourself up in knots. Instead I simply keep a large cash position besides an even larger bullion position. It is both a hedge and provides the opportunity to buy bullion silver cheaply on the big dips if/when they come. I consider profits taken only after accumulating further gold cheaply; buy silver with cash on the big dip, then swap silver to gold when the ratio gets to around 50. As for making money from this strategy, the next few months will be lucrative if silver is volatile to both the up and down side.

It sounds like you know what you are doing.For me its Buy and Hold i am sitting on my seat waiting for the music to stop.

 

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