GOLD

[FWIW]

yeah, 'cos Eastasia's so much better than Oceania

 

DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER

DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER

DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER

DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER

DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER

 

[drbubb]

This GOOD POST is from Fortune...

 

UK Indie seems be confirming what Jim Willie and others are saying about the pricing of Oil in a different currency. The game is up. Better hope the Americans don't kick over the table and start WWIII:

 

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

 

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

 

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

 

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. "Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asia and Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security."

 

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turning the region's conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves...

 

Read the rest HERE

UNQUOTE

 

Do you suppose JumWoolie is unaware of Gold's strong seasonal pattern?

 

BTW, I can recall the first year that I was aware of the seasonal pattern, Gold peaked right on schedule on Oct. 6th.

But I was so sure that there were some unusually bullish factors that year, I decided to ignore it.

[sylvester]

THAT, sir, is a massive over-reaction.

 

Shame on you.

 

Don't worry Dr. that's what 'ignore user' was invented for.

[Pixel8r]

I have copied my post from the "Gold may be done here" thread because I think it is relevant. I don't think that gold's seasonal run is ending I actually think it is just beginning, as can be seen from my graph below.

 

I HATE being misquoted !

Whare do you think you are posting, HPC?

 

1/

Here are my actual words from the first post:

 

"Early/Mid May, is also a fine time for a top"

 

The problem I had is with your choice of title and subtitle on May 16th with a gold price of $925

 

Gold may be done here - Be careful

There's some "nice symmetry" for a top here

 

The whole thread has implied that the gold bull is over, which is not the case. All the reasons for gold being a goto to asset are still present. I have raised a couple of times on this thread that I don't think it is a good title, for talking about the playing the swings in the gold market for trading purposes. A lot of people have bought gold as it will be protecting their wealth during this fiat currency crisis, hearing a trader saying it may be done here, may make some of the less read nervous and sell.

 

Looking at this graph you can see the steps which appear to be happening every two years starting in October and moving through to April. Which hardly signifies it is done, more like we are breaking out and it is just about to go on a surge again.

 

 

 

[drbubb]

It is relevant. And here's my response:

 

Agreed!

These are a critical few days right now

 

From my Diary...

WARNING:

I may be wrong about the Dollar

 

I did not like the action yesterday and today in the US Dollar (USD)

 

 

First, the USD failed to hold the brief break above that old low at $77.43.

 

Then today:

 

...it has fallen below support to/near support at $76.40.

This is not healthy action, and if the Dollar fails to show a nice reversal today (Ocy.6th),

or tomorrow (Oct.7th), we mat see a slide to frsh lows and a serious breakdown.

 

A tiny 3% Bulls, allowed me to see that the Dollar may be due for a countertrend rally.

But the action over the last 24 hours suggests that we cannot rule out further downside.

 

If the Dollar does breakdown to fresh lows, it should be good for Gold, but it would not

neceassily be good for stocks.

 

Stay alert

 

There is a chance that the US will be driven to INCREASE LIbor, which might support the Dollar

[Pixel8r]

It is relevant. And here's my response:

 

Agreed!

These are a critical few days right now

 

From my Diary...

 

 

There is a chance that the US will be driven to INCREASE LIbor, which might support the Dollar

I think 76 in the USDX is the number to watch, if we break it there isn't much support below for a while which should see gold breakout to new all time highs.

[drbubb]

For me, here are two other plausible scenarios for Gold

 

[Pixel8r]

For me, here are two other plausible scenarios for Gold

Glad you haven't gone as far as the completely un-plausible ker scenario of $320

 

It would worry me being in the same camp as the contra indicator ker.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Don't worry Dr. that's what 'ignore user' was invented for.

You still see the user, though. It only hides the actual content of posts.

[G0ldfinger]

Why is the gold thread suddenly a gold trading thread ONLY??

 

 

I don't want to trade gold. If I wanted to trade, I would only trade Poople or Micropoop, for cr@p's sake.

 

And why is the undertone/-title ONLY bearish again?

 

Can we at least let the thread title be NEUTRAL?

 

 

 

(This is too much for me so early in the morning with a head cold lingering!)

[electroweak]

Why is the gold thread suddenly a gold trading thread ONLY??

I don't want to trade gold. If I wanted to trade, I would only trade Poople or Micropoop, for cr@p's sake.

And why is the undertone/-title ONLY bearish again?

Can we at least let the thread title be NEUTRAL?

+1

[Pixel8r]

Why is the gold thread suddenly a gold trading thread ONLY??

I don't want to trade gold. If I wanted to trade, I would only trade Poople or Micropoop, for cr@p's sake.

And why is the undertone/-title ONLY bearish again?

Can we at least let the thread title be NEUTRAL?

Agreed, we want Steve

 

 

[DoctorSolar]

Why is the gold thread suddenly a gold trading thread ONLY??

 

 

I don't want to trade gold. If I wanted to trade, I would only trade Poople or Micropoop, for cr@p's sake.

 

And why is the undertone/-title ONLY bearish again?

 

Can we at least let the thread title be NEUTRAL?

 

Fair point GF. I reckon this site has a fair number of lurkers who are reading these threads as a means to educate themselves and protect what little wealth they have. Given current demographics of this site I imagine a significant portion will hold this wealth in GBP. This is why I and others are at pains to point out that if you do not have a core position in gold and silver yet you really need to get one RIGHT NOW!

 

Do not wait for a dip if you are holding GBP. Get a core position no regardless of price.

 

If you have money outside of this core position you can afford to lose then fine trade a way and best of luck.

 

To be fair Dr B has consistently stated in other threads that those in GBP should look at gold.

 

Perhaps we should have two separate threads? One for trading and one for investment?

[warpig]

I think this video found by GOM sums up the general thought process(es) of a gold trader. It just depends which way the wind blows.

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBYHh9FwrR8

[G0ldfinger]

I think this video found by GOM sums up the general thought process(es) of a gold trader. It just depends which way the wind blows.

It's either going to break here, or off to da moon.

[romans holiday]

For me, here are two other plausible scenarios for Gold

 

I like the first scenario [900] which I see as very plausible.

 

Why is the gold thread suddenly a gold trading thread ONLY??

 

 

I don't want to trade gold. If I wanted to trade, I would only trade Poople or Micropoop, for cr@p's sake.

 

And why is the undertone/-title ONLY bearish again?

 

Can we at least let the thread title be NEUTRAL?

 

 

 

(This is too much for me so early in the morning with a head cold lingering!)

I think this might be as good a time as any to pin two threads each with a distinct focus; one for the "traders" and one for the investors. I think that all will still post on both, but a lot of misunderstandings/ confusion might be avoided. Any comments?

 

Edit: I see DoctorSolar suggests the same.

[aardvark]

a strange time of day for gold to be rising?

[electroweak]

Feels like something in the system is breaking.......

 

[grumpy-old-man]

+1

 

+2

 

 

[grumpy-old-man]

I think this video found by GOM sums up the general thought process(es) of a gold trader. It just depends which way the wind blows.

 

 

hee hee, I remember that thread & those posts. :lol:

[creditcrunch]

MSM now openly talking about gold being used to replace dollar, at least temporarily.

 

Gold could be used as a temporary replacement for the dollar, Independent claims

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/oc...reat-to-america

 

 

[romans holiday]

I think this video found by GOM sums up the general thought process(es) of a gold trader. It just depends which way the wind blows.

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBYHh9FwrR8

I liked DoctorSolar's measured take on those who decide to so-call "trade". This word has been near demonized by some, which also leads to confusion about what people are actually doing. A few points:

 

1] Different strokes for different folks. We should all be open-minded and liberal enough to accept that equally intelligent people often come to differing conclusions [lets keep puritanical and moralistic judgements out of economics and investing and maintain a healthy discussion]. I think most here would agree this is a healthy thing and the opposite of "groupthink" is to be avoided, where people stop thinking for themselves and starting to succumb to the herd mentality. The main stream media has no monopoly on groupthink... it can also be found on within fringe media.

 

2] What some consider "trading" is anything but. Trading gold usually entails trying to make a profit [in a fiat currency] on the short term volatility in the gold price. Most so-called "gold traders" here know that this is a mugs game. The reality is that most of the "traders" here, having already a massive position in gold, are merely refraining from going all in ... in case of a dip in price or a market crash. This is just common sense hedging and can hardly be criticized by the 100% crowd [who predictably enough are usually 100% certain about the future].

 

3] So with the above in mind, I'd like to coin a new word, "intrader" where one is primarily a gold investor but is also willing to hedge [being 100% uncertain] in the event the market crashes and gold dips [silver actually] in order to only then buy in 100%.

[Fortune]

I have a question for those more knowledgable than myself.

 

With the last COT report showing near record short positions on Gold and Silver, when will the traders with these short positions have to cover them - especially if the price refuses to budge low enough for it to be profitable. Can they just hold onto losing positions forever, thus never covering? How can they continue to short something and never cover it?

[bakachu]

hmmm, gold approaching $1030 and dollar index treading near 76.. this could be very interesting indeed!

[warpig]

Anyone that's been here for any length of time knows you're a `goldbug` that wants to take advantage of trading volatility, fair enough you have a core position, you're old enough to make your own educated decisions, I don't understand what the fuss is about TBH. It's not my choice at the moment, but good luck to you.

 

My only gripe is for some gold traders, there seems no medium term acceptance of the fundamentals, they all assume they'll be able to get back in to the market at the drop of a hat and more importantly at the right knocked down price, they typically treat gold the same as tin, wheat or oil, which is against the ethos of most here.

 

I liked DoctorSolar's take on those who decide to "trade". This word has been near demonized by some, which also leads to confusion about what people are actually doing. A few points:

 

1] Different strokes for different folks. We should all be open-minded and liberal enough to accept that people often come to differing conclusions [lets keep puritanical and moralistic judgements out of economics and investing]. I think most here would agree this is a healthy thing and the opposite of "groupthink" is to be avoided, where people stop thinking for themselves and starting to succumb to the herd mentality. The main stream media has no monopoly on groupthink... it can also be found on within fringe media.

 

2] What some consider "trading" is anything but. Trading gold usually entails trying to make a profit [in a fiat currency] on the short term volatility in the gold price. Most so-called "gold traders" here know that this is a mugs game. The reality is that most of the "traders" here, having already a massive position in gold, are merely refraining from going all in ... in case of a dip in price or a market crash. This is just common sense hedging and can hardly be criticized by the 100% crowd [who predictably enough are usually 100% certain about the future].

 

3] So with the above in mind, I'd like to coin a new word, "intrader" where one is primarily a gold investor but is also willing to hedge [being 100% uncertain] in the event the market crashes and gold dips [silver actually] in order to only then buy in 100%.