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The question is how long will it now last, if we are at that point. The graph suggests 12 months or so...will it be any different this time around? Does human nature change? Will the internet compress the time period of the speculative stage? If only we knew.

I don't think we're even close to a real mania yet. All this is going to be quite dragged out.

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I have just done a more refined version and have created an CS4 illustrator file to enable quick updating.

 

Pixel8rsLines.jpg

 

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The question is how long will it now last, if we are at that point. The graph suggests 12 months or so...will it be any different this time around? Does human nature change? Will the internet compress the time period of the speculative stage? If only we knew.

Good points. The theories about the Mayan calendar and events repeating in a shorter timespan make sense in this hectic world, but the internet didn't speed up the arrival of the phase so it might not lessen its duration.

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I don't think we're even close to a real mania yet. All this is going to be quite dragged out.

 

Has anyone heard any of the following statements re. gold when at a party, being driven in a cab, at work or anywhere else where people spray their opinions around like confetti?

 

"You got in at the right time"

"You'd better get in, you'll miss the boat"

"Are you in physical or an ETF?"

"I've got sovereigns, no CGT, see?"

 

and not forgetting

 

"Gold only ever goes up"

 

I haven't, so I don't think we are in the mania phase. In fact, I would say we are about 1/3 of the way into the media attention phase.

 

Has the Sun done an article a centrefold spread on how to get into gold? That will be one to look out for. They'll be selling ingots on gold chains in the back. (Ooops, sorry, they already do.)

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:unsure: The refined chart looks very nice!

I noticed that my bottom line needed a bit of improving, it wasn't quiet lined up right and on a slightly different angle, corrected now.

 

Will keep posting updated versions when I notice a change on approximity ;)

 

 

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Gold Breakout Alert, Powerful Uptrend Imminent

 

Clive Maund's take on the current action.

 

To conclude, gold is in position to embark on a major uptrend here that is expected to result in it tacking on a 30% - 60% gain in the space of about 6 months. Silver should make spectacular gains during the same period and PM stocks, after finally overcoming resistance approaching their highs, should ascend upwards in an accelerating arc. TRY TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU DON'T MISS THIS.
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How are gold stocks faring?

 

A resumption of the stock market crash seems to be in the offing.

 

Will gold stocks be dragged down with the rest of the stock market?

 

Will gold and silver hold up and even continue to rise in the face of a severe stockmarket correction?

 

I'm hoping that gold stocks will drop a lot while gold and silver hold up or even increase a lot.

 

Then I could sell some metal next year and buy stocks cheaply.

 

No chance?

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Will gold and silver hold up and even continue to rise in the face of a severe stockmarket correction?

 

I'm hoping that gold stocks will drop a lot while gold and silver hold up or even increase a lot.

 

Then I could sell some metal next year and buy stocks cheaply.

 

No chance?

Why do you think silver will hold up? Being more of a "commodity currency" don't you think it is more liekly to drop in sympathy with stcoks and commodities?

 

Gold on the other hand should remain relatively strong.

 

As a hedger, I am looking to buy silver cheaply on the correction with cash reserves.

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Why do you think silver will hold up? Being more of a "commodity currency" don't you think it is more liekly to drop in sympathy with stcoks and commodities?

 

Gold on the other hand should remain relatively strong.

 

As a hedger, I am looking to buy silver cheaply on the correction with cash reserves.

 

 

Quiet here tonight <_<

 

I know this is the traditional wisdom that silver acts more like an industrial metal BUT I am beginning to think that this may change. I cannot back-up this opinion with anything concrete but imagine if an Oligarch wanted a cheeky punt on silver - 50 Million USD would tickle things up a bit and likely rattle the weak underpinnings of the long suppressed price. Once that ball started rolling, there would be some real fun...

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Why do you think silver will hold up? Being more of a "commodity currency" don't you think it is more liekly to drop in sympathy with stcoks and commodities?

 

Gold on the other hand should remain relatively strong.

 

As a hedger, I am looking to buy silver cheaply on the correction with cash reserves.

Yes, silver is much more vulnerable. But I don't want to jump in and out this year partly to keep my tax simpler. If silver drops back to €10 I will buy some more.

 

Otherwise I'm just going to sit back and watch for the next few months.

 

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From front of Kitco page.

 

post-1672-1254972174_thumb.png

 

For the first time in ages I checked a Nadler article and clocked him mentioning Kitco starting up this new Kitco Gold Index. http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html#RT Gold / $ Index.

 

Now, I'm sure it's a useful and relevant chart tool to use, but the way this is being pushed seems to be along the lines of 'no, gold is still no good - don't buy it'. FFS - Kitco and Nadler!

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How are gold stocks faring?

 

I was reading an interesting piece of research today from one of the banks. It said many of the majors were substantially lagging the gold price and still had lots of room for appreciation given they still trade at a discount to their old March 2008 highs.

 

The research note had a nice chart illustrating companies undervalued and overvalued relative to the previous 2008 highs - Yamana, Barrick, Newcrest, Harmony, Kinross, Agnico, Gold Fields and Goldcorp were some of the more familiar names on the discounted side (in that order).

 

Certainly, I remember trading a decent amount of Barrick in the 50s, in the days I was more gung-ho before the 2008 silver crash.

 

There was another nice table that gave target returns given different spot prices. North American majors are the most attractively priced. Barrick is trading as if the spot price was $827 and has 89% upside with a $1050 spot price. Harmony looked to be the biggest upside overall. It is trading as if the gold price was $966 and $1050 spot gold yields 40% potential upside but the $1150 target was 109% upside.

 

I think the major miners have decent upside to them - you just have to be able to stomach the sell offs and perhaps ease into a big position.

 

 

 

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Has anyone heard any of the following statements re. gold when at a party, being driven in a cab, at work or anywhere else where people spray their opinions around like confetti?

 

"You got in at the right time"

"You'd better get in, you'll miss the boat"

"Are you in physical or an ETF?"

"I've got sovereigns, no CGT, see?"

 

At a party? No.

But here? Yes.

This isnt the end of the road, but kit could be the prelude to a correction.

 

I continue to lighten up

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At a party? No.

But here? Yes.

This isnt the end of the road, but kit could be the prelude to a correction.

 

I continue to lighten up

What if you continue to lighten up and the price moves to $1300-$1400 over the next 5 months?

 

 

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Then maybe we need three threads...... another for the hedgers. :lol:

 

But, I think some kind of distinction along these lines would be useful and would facilitate a more constructive discussion of what is after all a very complex issue.

 

Would be too many threads.

 

Just call this one "Gold thread" and theres no problem :rolleyes:

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