Steve Netwriter Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 I think the issue is being a little narrowed here. I do not consider myself a gold bug [too emotional] so could be called a non gold-bug. Yet, I think you are getting at something else as I also like gold and invest accordingly. I consider myself a gold bull [a middle way??? ]. Maybe the term anti gold bug is useful to refer to a prejudice against gold as money. It seems a lot of discussion, whether political, economic or whatever, is reduced to a binary logic and then partisan positions are taken where the twain never meet. I am much more interested in using a logic which can bridge the gap between a thesis and its anti-thesis. I think this kind of logic, though less "certain", reflects more accurately the real world we live in. Binary logic [rationalist] is ideological and more often than not completely divorced from reality. A gold bull can happily think of gold as once again functioning as money [perhaps even formally with the re-institution of an exchange gold standard] without subscribing to some of the less well-thought through ideas of gold bugism.. such as the imminent destruction of the dollar and all fiat. I agree. Have you noticed the differing views of various article writers? I can't instantly come up with the constituents, so here's an example. Bill Murphy: Believes A, B, C Adam Hamilton: Believes A, not B, C xxxx: Believes not A, not B, C So both Bill and Adam are bullish on gold, but they have totally different views on the COT reports, and I think therefore also manipulation. xxxx will be bearish on gold etc. I find it a fascinating mix of 'micro' views. Each person has a certain combination of 'micro' views giving them one 'macro' view. Actually, (not wishing to go off topic into religion), but it's a little like the mix of views within a particular religion. A sort of pick-n-mix of components. Therefore there can be no one type of 'goldbug', in the same way all Christians do not believe exactly the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Hatter Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Should I be concerned that I am waiting for a certain number to reach the number of the beast? (and hopefully exceed it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halcyon Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Romans, I agree. Won't go into details. Trying now to keep the thread tidy for my part. As for GF, don't agree and I have cited resources as to why. anybody interested can read them. I leave it at that. Now, for some gold trading signal related comments, from RGE Monitor: Gold Outlook - Demand for gold will likely wane after Diwali and if the dollar strengthens on bouts of risk aversion. - BNP: Gold is not expected to stay above the US$1,000/oz level in the coming months, given the likelihood that the U.S. dollar will rebound and headline inflation will stay weak. - # Merrill Lynch (not online): Short-term rates of 0% are bullish for gold, which serves as a store of value but is a useful hedge against deflation as well, since deflation is inherently destabilizing for financial assets. In the 2001-03 deflationary period, gold rose more than 30%, not to mention the prospect of a return to a dollar bear market. "Gold is inversely correlated to global short-term interest rates and there is a race right now towards 0%. Production is down 4.0% y/y while fiat currencies globally are being created at a double digit rate by the world's central banks....As for all the talk of a 'gold bubble,' it would take a nearly 625% surge in gold to over US$6,000/oz and a flat stock market to actually get the ratio of the two asset classes back to where it was three decades ago when bullion was in an unsustainable bubble phase." - Noncommercial net longs rose to an all-time high 239,668 lots in the week ending October 9 Commercial banks price ranges are hard to take seriously, just because their individual stock pickings and commodity recommendations are generally so off the mark. However, their supply/demand analysis is often - regardless of the previous - quite right. The situation looks mixed. Maybe a nominal gold-in-USD correction and then determination of the long term direction. BTW, for EW fans Prechter things USD is bottoming for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Gold pieces in the Sunday Times, Evening standard and The telegraph over the past day or two. All 3 seem to have the same spin of burying goldbugs (why only goldbugs and not equitybugs or bondbugs?). Actually the Telegraph piece is slightly more constructive than the title suggests (tho not worth the effort of reading...). However David Smiths piece is genius as only he can, he dimisses gold within about 200 words. Not bad for a supposedly high-brow paper. What happened to reasoned analysis in the supposed quality newspapers? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currenc...our-breath.html Gold at $1500, don't hold your breath. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6869383.ece PS: The only time most of us notice the gold price is when it hits a record, as last week. What does a gold price of more than $1,050 an ounce tell us? The answer, as always, is a mix of sensible argument and daft rumour. One sensible argument for buying gold for investment is that when interest rates are near zero, the cost of doing so is very low. But when the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates last week, the first in the G20 to do so, the price of gold surged. This is because of the other big argument about gold, that it is a great hedge against inflation. Gold’s usefulness as an inflation hedge has been exaggerated, as anybody buying it in 1980 (until recently the peak) found to their cost. With many countries suffering deflation, inflation worries look misplaced. World recessions are not followed by galloping inflation. That leaves the dollar. A report by journalist and Middle East expert Robert Fisk suggested it could be abandoned as the currency for pricing oil. He pointed out, however, that talks on this subject had been taking place for a couple of years and, if there is a shift, the target date is 2018. Gold will rise and fall. The dollar is going to be around as the world’s reserve currency for a long time Intersting from my point of view in that mainstream are quick to bash gold without analyising the reasons why its actually gaining in price and may be a good investment. No gold bubble yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pyewackitt Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 If i believed what i read in the papers i wouldve bought a house a few years ago because Gordo brought about an 'end to boom and bust'. In much the same way most papers seem to be constantly talking about deflation... without fail forgetting to mention the many, many years of inflation we've had since currencies were moved off the gold standard or to take a serious look at the number of times a deflationary wave preceeds a larger inflationary one. The papers are good for a giggle and lining my mum's cat's litter box... and occasionally good sports articles - but for balanced financial news and discussion i'd rather look elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 - Noncommercial net longs rose to an all-time high 239,668 lots in the week ending October 9 Adam Hamilton: This shatters a common OI myth from the CoT priesthood, that record-high gold OI is always bearish for gold. In its mild form, analysts claim record gold OI levels warn of an imminent pullback or correction. This is certainly true at times. But in its extreme form, I’ve heard analysts claim some particular OI record means this secular gold bull is coming to an end. That is just nonsense. Check out the OI records above compared with gold itself. http://www.zealllc.com/2009/goldcot3.htm Checkout the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 If i believed what i read in the papers i wouldve bought a house a few years ago because Gordo brought about an 'end to boom and bust'. In much the same way most papers seem to be constantly talking about deflation... without fail forgetting to mention the many, many years of inflation we've had since currencies were moved off the gold standard or to take a serious look at the number of times a deflationary wave preceeds a larger inflationary one. The papers are good for a giggle and lining my mum's cat's litter box... and occasionally good sports articles - but for balanced financial news and discussion i'd rather look elsewhere Still, pays to keep an eye on the mass media and the market in order to take advantage of mass ignorance: A conventional valuation which is established as the outcome of the mass psychology of a large number of ignorant individuals is liable to change violently as the result of a sudden fluctuation of opinion... the market will be subject to waves of optimistic and pessimistic sentiment, which are unreasoning and yet in a sense legitimate where no solid base exists for a reasonable calculation. JM Keynes. Perhaps we will see one last wave up in the market, before it all turns around. If we saw a downturn, I expect gold to hold up relatively well whereas silver is likely to be hammered, which is why I will be converting silver to gold once the ratio nears 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Gold rising vertically again - strange time of the day for this though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Gold rising vertically again - strange time of the day for this though.... It looks dramatic on Kitco but the vertical scale is compressed. Not really such a big move in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Gold rising vertically again - strange time of the day for this though.... G&S rising as the US$ Index went up, and then falling as the US$ Index went down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 G&S rising as the US$ Index went up, and then falling as the US$ Index went down G&S going up while trading was open in London as the pound lost strength, not so unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 G&S going up while trading was open in London as the pound lost strength, not so unusual. Thanks Pixel8r, that's useful interpretation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Ready for the next leg-up? http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2190484 RBContraIndicator © Boy, he really hates gold, doesn't he!? Although to be fair this time he is quoting Jimmy Rogers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Ready for the next leg-up? http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2190484 RBContraIndicator © Boy, he really hates gold, doesn't he!? Although to be fair this time he is quoting Jimmy Rogers. I was just looking at the 15min chart and thinking volatility is coming down a bit...now I just need a pull back and then hopefully a sign to move the market! That RBContraIndicator is exactly the sign I was looking for!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Ready for the next leg-up? http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2190484 RBContraIndicator © Boy, he really hates gold, doesn't he!? Although to be fair this time he is quoting Jimmy Rogers. I know he claims to have called it and made a mint, but seriously, how badly did he get burned in the 1980 bubble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 I was just looking at the 15min chart and thinking volatility is coming down a bit...now I just need a pull back and then hopefully a sign to move the market! That RBContraIndicator is exactly the sign I was looking for!! lol Now, if we could only have Ker appear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 New Gold Index released by Kitco today. http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html Todays result: Did gold really go up 8.80? Yes. The weakened US Dollar was responsible for 4.30 of that increase. The Kitco Gold Index has one purpose, that is to determine whether the value of gold is actual, a reflection of changes in the US Dollar value, or a combination of both. The U.S. Dollar Index® represents the value of the US Dollar in terms of a basket of six major foreign currencies: Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), UK Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). It is an exchange traded (FINEX) index and has become a standard used worldwide. The Kitco Gold Index is the price of gold measured not in terms of US Dollars, but rather in terms of the same weighted basket of currencies that determine the US Dollar Index®. Since the Kitco Gold Index has no US Dollar component it needs to be compared to the actual US Dollar price to give it some perspective. In all of the historical and live charts that we are displaying here we’re showing both trend lines for the purposes of making this comparison. Here are a few possible situations that you may see and what the meaning could be: The Kitco Gold Index is up and the USD price of gold is up even more: This would definitely mean that gold has increased in value. It also means that the USD has weakened and so the degree of the gold value increase will be exaggerated when examined strictly in terms of the US Dollar. This is the exact scenario that we’ve witnessed over the span of the early years of the 21st century. The Kitco Gold Index is down and the USD price of gold is down even more: This would definitely mean that gold value has declined in value. But not by as much as it may appear in USD terms. The Kitco Gold Index is up and the USD price of gold is down: This would indicate that the USD has strengthened relative to the other major currencies, but that gold has gained in value. The Kitco Gold Index is down and the USD price of gold is up: This would indicate that the USD has weakened relative to the other major currencies, and that gold is really not up as it may appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 I know he claims to have called it and made a mint, but seriously, how badly did he get burned in the 1980 bubble? it must have been a nasty burn for him to be so angry with gold for all this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Look away RealistBear of HPC, it's yet another example of gold holding it's value over time........... Gold half sovereign from the Mary Rose, dated 1544 A gold half sovereign dated 1544 and bearing the image of Henry VIII. It represented a month's pay for a sailor at the time Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/art...l#ixzz0TlEIFAJM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Look away RealistBear of HPC, it's yet another example of gold holding it's value over time........... Gold half sovereign from the Mary Rose, dated 1544 Yummyumm. Can I have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 Look away RealistBear of HPC, it's yet another example of gold holding it's value over time........... In what respect has it held its value if it formerly employed a soldier for a month and now does so for a week or less? Edit: the first sovs had about 2x the gold of current sovs, but the gold value has still come down in terms of soldiers' pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted October 12, 2009 Report Share Posted October 12, 2009 In what respect has it held its value if it formerly employed a soldier for a month and now does so for a week or less? Hi nicejim , others may chip in with better answers here, but here's my understanding: Because over 450 years, a circa 4-fold change in labour value is insignificant compared to the multiple-fold loss in paper (pound/pence) value had we compared soldier's income in fiat currency. Things make even more sense when you factor in the 'productivity gain' of a modern soldier over a soldier from the 16th century. Now with armour, sophisticated weoponary, communications, tanks, aircover, healthcare, sanitation etc.......... the number of soldiers needed per war campaign is less so each can be paid a bit more in absolute value as they have 'added value' to the battlefield effort. I could suggest perhaps circa 4 times more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 13, 2009 Report Share Posted October 13, 2009 Now with armour, sophisticated weoponary, communications, tanks, aircover, healthcare, sanitation etc.......... the number of soldiers needed per war campaign is less so each can be paid a bit more in absolute value as they have 'added value' to the battlefield effort. I could suggest perhaps circa 4 times more. I think you just need to add the cost of energy to that Peak oil, peak fiat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 13, 2009 Report Share Posted October 13, 2009 Store in Dallas refuses US dollar -- only gold/silver From: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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