mattyboy Posted October 14, 2009 Report Share Posted October 14, 2009 Think of capital flow. The money is flowing from the centre to the periphery on the risk trade. This pushes up commodities, commodity currencies, and stocks in especially emerging countries and "commodity" countries such as Australia. The high [uS dollar] price of gold is just reflecting a weakened dollar as capital moves out of it. Priced in Austrlian dollars, gold is down a little. That's exactly my point. Gold is down in AUD, but the rise in USD is also causing the Aussie miners to rise in Australian dollars. It doesn't really make sense since their profits are not really going up in AUD. I am based in Aus and although my physical gold is down from its highs, the shares are doing very well recently - some have 5 bagged off their lows, althoug unfortunately for many that just brings them back to what I paid for them in 07/08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 14, 2009 Report Share Posted October 14, 2009 http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html Long-Term $US 5 x 3 Gold Chart - Since The 1982 Low This chart is based on Comex spot future daily CLOSING Gold prices Latest Update: Tuesday, October 13, 2009 - GOLD ABOVE $US 1065 - ALL TIME HIGH The close above $US 1020 on September 16 (see below) is FOUR clear "Xs" above the $US 1000 double top on the chart set in March 2008 and February 2009. The entire bull market from its bottom is thereby re-validated. The close above $US 1035 on October 6 is THREE clear "Xs" above the September 16 close. This signals the HIGH likelihood of an imminent surge in the $US Gold price. This Chart is updated as the chart moves. The chart will not move as long as the spot future Gold price closes between $US 1069.90 and $US 1050.10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Well I am happy to wait for a dollar bounce a la EWI and gold to fall a bit from here before buying more gold. (kneels to pray). I think a lot of people are taken in with the imminent inflation talk and have bought gold and I dont buy that play just yet. 'course, I could be wrong...and I wouldn't do any selling. It must be time for a breather though-where are we mid October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halcyon Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 More from EWI via Tradersnarrative: Quote: from Trader's narrative: Honestly, I can’t see any signs of inflation anywhere. In fact, you don’t have to look hard to see deflation almost everywhere. So the gold story is one written on the back of the US dollar. And with the US dollar sentiment so incredibly negative, it makes me cautious on gold - bull market conditions notwithstanding. Gold has not made sustained new real highs (only nominal in USD), dollar is making new lows. Watch for a breakout in the resistance line. However, if there's one, it's probably due to some news you're going to be aware of at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Gold is not making new highs, dollar is making new lows. Watch for a breakout in the resistance line. However, if there's one, it's probably due to some news you're going to be aware of at any rate. Gold has made new highs just this week, you sure have a short memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halcyon Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Gold has made new highs just this week, you sure have a short memory. Fixed. Of course it has made new nominal highs in USD, but that matters very little to the argument EWI is trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Gold has not made sustained new real highs (only nominal in USD), dollar is making new lows. Watch for a breakout in the resistance line. However, if there's one, it's probably due to some news you're going to be aware of at any rate. OK so someone who bought gold a few months back with USD has maintained their purchasing power in other countries currencies. That is truely fantastic news and not something to be gloomy about gold at all. In fact that is the very essence of why you should buy gold. It is a hedge against government more than it is a hedge against inflation. It may not make you rich but it will maintain your purchasing power globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Fixed. Of course it has made new nominal highs in USD, but that matters very little to the argument EWI is trying to make. EWI has been calling for lower gold all the way through this gold bull and been completely wrong. Why should anyone pay any attention at all to EWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Honestly, I can’t see any signs of inflation anywhere. In fact, you don’t have to look hard to see deflation almost everywhere. Thats weird because here in UK it is the exact opposite for me. I can see price inflation for things I actually need every day everywhere. OK so for now you could do just as well getting out of USD/GBP and in to some other currency rather than gold but why take the counter party risk? It seems clear there is a race to the bottom on with currencies all trying to devalue. But since they are all relative the only thing can really ALL devalue against is gold. It will be a bumpy ride but for those non-traders who are just looking to preserve their wealth gold is something to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 EWI has been calling for lower gold all the way through this gold bull and been completely wrong. Why should anyone pay any attention at all to EWI? And all the while "goldbugs" get criticised for listening to "gold pushers" and their "crazy stories" It cuts both ways dont you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halcyon Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 EWI has been calling for lower gold all the way through this gold bull and been completely wrong. Why should anyone pay any attention at all to EWI? I have no idea. Passing along the information. Regardless of EWI, I think it pays to look at the long term currency basket (sans dollar) price of Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Gold has not made sustained new real highs (only nominal in USD), dollar is making new lows. Watch for a breakout in the resistance line. However, if there's one, it's probably due to some news you're going to be aware of at any rate. Check these 5 year gold charts in various currencies, non look bearish to me. http://www.goldchartsrus.com/ Why does anyone pay for the advice they get off EWI, when they have completely missed this very obvious gold bull run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 I wonder if Realist Bear on HPC is bullish on gold now that news reports are surfacing that the large hadron collider may never get off the ground? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science...own-future.html That rich stream of human manufactured gold will never come online? Oh but then there is always mining the inside of nuclear reactors though isn't there silly me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halcyon Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Check these 5 year gold charts in various currencies, non look bearish to me. http://www.goldchartsrus.com/ Thanks, great charts. Look like investing charts (5 year). Not trading. Perhaps they might deserve an even wider audience in the gold investing thread? I have no idea about EWI, I don't subscribe. I do entertain multiple hypothesis though. One of them - on a trading time frame - is that gold price may drop from a short-term resistance soon. If it does, it's a possible buy opportunity on the *trading* horizon. This is a trading thread after all. I don't try to *predict* the future and bet on it now. I try to anticipate what might happen, so I can take advantage of it if it happens. Trading, not investing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 15, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Check these 5 year gold charts in various currencies, non look bearish to me. http://www.goldchartsrus.com/ Here is a chart that takes interest (base rates) into account: http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/curr...arison_GBP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Thanks, great charts. Look like investing charts (5 year). Not trading. Perhaps they might deserve an even wider audience in the gold investing thread? I have no idea about EWI, I don't subscribe. I do entertain multiple hypothesis though. One of them - on a trading time frame - is that gold price may drop from a short-term resistance soon. If it does, it's a possible buy opportunity on the *trading* horizon. This is a trading thread after all. I don't try to *predict* the future and bet on it now. I try to anticipate what might happen, so I can take advantage of it if it happens. Trading, not investing. I think that trying to trade during these times is the wrong thing to do. I have been long gold and silver now for over 2 1/2 years, I have not been trading just buying and holding. When I initially started to buy in I did so over around 8 months, with the money from the sale of a house. I think the best thing to do for anyone wanting to take a position is to average in, buy a small amount every month. Trying to time the market by listening to EWI will lose you money IMO. By try to trade I think you are missing a very easy play. It has taken me no effort to increase my house money by over 40% in 2 1/2 years, while houses have just got cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Honestly, I can’t see any signs of inflation anywhere. Obviously doesn't pay for his food or any taxes. Is he an MP by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 OK so someone who bought gold a few months back with USD has maintained their purchasing power in other countries currencies. That is truely fantastic news and not something to be gloomy about gold at all. In fact that is the very essence of why you should buy gold. It is a hedge against government more than it is a hedge against inflation. It may not make you rich but it will maintain your purchasing power globally. Gold is a hedge against uncertainty... as is government. I do not think people are being gloomy about gold so much as cautious. We all know where gold is going in the long run.... just that there could well be a valley or two on the way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halcyon Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 OK so someone who bought gold a few months back with USD has maintained their purchasing power in other countries currencies. That is truely fantastic news and not something to be gloomy about gold at all. I don't think anybody was gloomy about gold. Good wealth preservation move, but not a relatively good trade. Emerging markets are up more than 50%+ in the same time period (dollar adjusted). I think that trying to trade during these times is the wrong thing to do. Duly noted. This is still a trading thread for gold though It's perhaps worth pondering that people have different aims (ie.g. preserve, grow), with different time horizons (6mo, 5yr, 25yr,etc.), and different tactics (e.g. concentrate vs spread the allocation, trade/sit-n-hold, bet vs hedge, etc). With that said... Back to actual gold trading discussion: Support: - 1051.82, 1043.43 and 1035.06(main). Break of the latter will give 1020.00, where a correction is possible. Then 992.90, where a correction is also possible. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 978.72. Continuation will bring 967.50. Resistance: - 1075.68(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 1081.40, where a correction may also happen. Then follows 1087.43. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 1096.82. Continuation would bring 1100.40. http://www.futurespros.com/analysis/future...-analysis-10088 P.S. Talking about some sources analysis (pro or con) should not mean that one is aligned to that position or against it. It's about learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 I don't think anybody was gloomy about gold. Good wealth preservation move, but not a relatively good trade. Emerging markets are up more than 50%+ in the same time period (dollar adjusted). Fair play. I don't have the time or skill for the stock trading at the moment so wealth preservation is the name of the game for me. Duly noted. This is still a trading thread for gold though I know this wasn't your making here halcyon so no hard feeling to you on this one. But I find it very odd and quite disrespectful to G0ldfinger (who started this thread so long ago) and all other gold interests on this board that this thread has been made trading only. No reply to those questioning why this move was made. All in all a poor show really. I guess I shouldn't post here anymore. I'll stick to G0ldfingers new thread. Bit of a shame that its come to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Fair play. I don't have the time or skill for the stock trading at the moment so wealth preservation is the name of the game for me. I know this wasn't your making here halcyon so no hard feeling to you on this one. But I find it very odd and quite disrespectful to G0ldfinger (who started this thread so long ago) and all other gold interests on this board that this thread has been made trading only. No reply to those questioning why this move was made. All in all a poor show really. I guess I shouldn't post here anymore. I'll stick to G0ldfingers new thread. Bit of a shame that its come to that. This was not "made a trading only" thread. This thread has always dealt with the wider aspects of gold investing and "trading" [what some of the god bugs consider trading is just hedging]. If I remember correctly, GF spat the dummy because "investment" happened to be dropped from this month's title, and decided to boycott this thread and start another one being restricted to "investing". I think people should chill out, spare the dramatics, and not read so much into something as inconsequential as a word happening to be dropped from a title. It is not a conspiracy people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 I know this wasn't your making here halcyon so no hard feeling to you on this one. But I find it very odd and quite disrespectful to G0ldfinger (who started this thread so long ago) and all other gold interests on this board that this thread has been made trading only. No reply to those questioning why this move was made. All in all a poor show really. I guess I shouldn't post here anymore. I'll stick to G0ldfingers new thread. Bit of a shame that its come to that. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyjcambo Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 You can buy gold bars and coins in Harrods now! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...first-time.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 This was not "made a trading only" thread. This thread has always dealt with the wider aspects of gold investing and trading. If I remember correctly, GF spat the dummy because "investment" happened to be dropped from this month's title, and decided to boycott this thread and start another one being restricted to "investing". I think people should chill out and not take themselves so seriously. OK so why then do I read posts on here chastising people when they mention longer term investment style horizons? Duly noted. This is still a trading thread for gold though If the thread still covers "the wider aspects of gold investing and trading" why not change a totally incorrect and misleading title? If your comments are made to feel unwelcome you go elsewhere. Its not "spitting the dummy" as you so eloquently put it. Its moving on to where your discussion will get a proper airing and be valued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 You can buy gold bars and coins in Harrods now! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...first-time.html This bubble is forming nicely. I'll just run down and grab myself a 12.5 kg bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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