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Absolutely not. Silver is too cheap, it's mostly consumed and the price is manipulated through excessive shorts, I'm keeping mine.

 

Exactly right Warpig. Silver is way undervalued as I explained in my Gold TTT thread!

 

 

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10 oz my silver for 10 oz your gold..........

 

deal ? :P

:D lol.. I'd only deal in kilos :P

 

Not really news is it. unsure.gif

Not to those of us who live here and can see 'feet on the ground' the empty shops and all your friends losing their jobs, but I think it's sure gonna be news as the USA wakes up in a couple of hours..

 

Absolutely not. Silver is too cheap, it's mostly consumed and the price is manipulated through excessive shorts, I'm keeping mine.

I'm not swapping any at the moment either; the ratio is too high. I was just wondering though if the ratio might increase from here (say 65/66) on this news. I'm playing the long game, and I think <35 is possible.

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Considering the UK news about the 'longest ever recession' is anyone considering swapping any silver for gold here?

No not yet, I am expecting to be doing so around April.

 

As explained here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135687

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Indeed, I'd say even a spike of 20:1 looks possible. Moving out of silver now would be a mistake IMO, it's going to be volatile we all know this. I am seriously considering sitting on maybe 20KG silver for maybe up to 10 years, long term silver has to go through price discovery once the markets acknowledge there isn't the same gold:silver ratio in the Earth's crust.

 

I'm not swapping any at the moment either; the ratio is too high. I was just wondering though if the ratio might increase from here (say 65/66) on this news. I'm playing the long game, and I think <35 is possible.

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Indeed, I'd say even a spike of 20:1 looks possible. Moving out of silver now would be a mistake IMO, it's going to be volatile we all know this. I am seriously considering sitting on maybe 20KG silver for maybe up to 10 years, long term silver has to go through price discovery once the markets acknowledge there isn't the same gold:silver ratio in the Earth's crust.

I think your long term approach will pay.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Gold-Silver-Ratio_GUESS.png

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Left hands says no, but the right hand says yes. Russians trying to accumulate on the cheap or a favour for another central bank?

 

GOLD-RUSSIA/ (UPDATE 3):UPDATE 3-Russia to sell 20-50 T gold in 2009 - source

 

MOSCOW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Russia plans to sell as much as 50 tonnes of gold this year to help plug a budget deficit in the first major bullion sale by its precious metals repository since the fall of the Soviet Union, a high level source told Reuters.

 

The sales from Russia's State Precious Metals and Gems Repository (Gokhran) could account for 0.5 to 1.25 percent of global consumption of the metal, which soared in price to a record of $1,070.40 per ounce on Oct.14.

 

"More than 20 tonnes, but less than 50 tonnes of gold will be supplied this year," the source familiar with the matter said on Friday, adding that the sale was intended to increase state budget revenues.

 

The source said the sale would be the first major gold sale by Gokhran since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union, which kept a veil of secrecy over its sometimes significant foreign sales of gems and precious metals.

 

Two other sources in the Russian government confirmed the planned gold sale but declined to comment on the volumes involved. The sales will be carried out by state owned Almazjuvelirexport.

 

Government spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a government resolution allowing the sale had not yet been signed.

 

Gokhran, which traces its history to a decree by Tsar Peter the Great in 1719, holds the Russian state's stocks of precious metals such as gold and palladium and gems such as diamonds.

 

Spot gold rose to a high of $1,067.30 per ounce on Friday, up from $1,060 late in New York on Thursday.

 

At current prices, Russia could raise as much as $1.7 billion if Gokhran sells 50 tonnes of bullion.

 

That would help it cover its first budget deficit in a decade that is forecast to total nearly $100 billion this year, or about 7.5-7.7 percent of gross domestic product. Gokhran is subordinated to the finance ministry.

 

"There's a budget deficit they need to fund, so a sale of gold does seem the most sensible thing to do, but I would have thought the impact on the market would be relatively limited," said Robin Bhar, an analyst at Calyon.

 

GOLD SALES

 

But some traders said they were sceptical of the bullion sale plans as the Russian central bank had increased stocks of gold as part of its international reserves by 14 percent in the last nine months to 19 million ounces.

 

"Why would they accommodate the international market when their own central bank is trying to buy gold?" said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance in Geneva.

 

"I don't think the central bank would allow it to go into the international market," said Nabavi.

 

Gold, viewed as safe haven in uncertain times, has soared in recent weeks as investors have sought protection against declines in the value of the U.S. dollar.

 

Russia was the world's fifth-largest gold producer last year, accounting for about 7 percent of global output.

 

Under a government order signed at the start of the year, Gokhran is allowed to sell precious metals worth 44.4 billion roubles ($1.53 billion) in 2009.

 

But the size of Gokhran's stocks is a state secret and disclosure is punishable by imprisonment, though traders say Gokhran's stocks are thought to be sizeable.

 

"They haven't passed a decree yet. It's got to be signed off, so its not a done and dusted deal," said Calyon's Bhar.

 

He said any price move would be a limited knee-jerk reaction on the downside "because we don't know what state stocks are, and if it's the first, or only tranche, of state sales." (Additional reporting by Veronica Brown in London and Gleb Bryansky and Aleksandras Budrys in Moscow; writing by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Christopher Johnson)

 

Reuters

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Roubini on gold price on the short and interim term:

 

"Gold can go up for only two reasons... [One is] inflation... The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon... But we’ve avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30 percent unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don’t see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon."

 

Strong words from Roubini. He thinks the system (and sentiment?) is stabilized enough for now, so that gold price moves on the upside will be limited. Interesting.

 

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Roubini on gold price on the short and interim term:

 

 

Strong words from Roubini. He thinks the system (and sentiment?) is stabilized enough for now, so that gold price moves on the upside will be limited. Interesting.

I am sorry but what planet is he talking about when he thinks the system is stabilised enough for now?

 

 

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Roubini on gold price on the short and interim term:

 

 

Strong words from Roubini. He thinks the system (and sentiment?) is stabilized enough for now, so that gold price moves on the upside will be limited. Interesting.

Surprised that Roubini is taking such a strong view here. He has never really talked that much about gold.

 

Also, I thought he was half-expecting a "double dip" recession. As for the price, I wonder if he is missing a third reason as to why the price would go higher, that of currency debasement.

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Roubini on gold price on the short and interim term:

 

 

Strong words from Roubini. He thinks the system (and sentiment?) is stabilized enough for now, so that gold price moves on the upside will be limited. Interesting.

 

From a 'stability' point of view he's right. From an excessive liquidity point of view he is also right.

 

But his conclusion re gold is probably wrong - we will see lots of bubbles as liquidity seeks a return, with trend jumping driving bubbles and busts. Gold will be as prone to this as anything else - if not more.

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I am sorry but what planet is he talking about when he thinks the system is stabilised enough for now?

 

Now stop it Pixel. I've just run a stability check & everything is fine :rolleyes:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shelia-ba...-worried-nation

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Roubini has no clue. He hasn't done his gold homework. Otherwise he would take into account that monetary inflation has gone 10x or so since 1980. Don't listen to him on the topic of gold.

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I tend to agree, at some point someone said something to him that made him tone down his public speaking, perhaps they were concerned too many people held him in too high regard...

 

Roubini has no clue. He hasn't done his gold homework. Otherwise he would take into account that monetary inflation has gone 10x or so since 1980. Don't listen to him on the topic of gold.

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Now stop it Pixel. I've just run a stability check & everything is fine :rolleyes:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shelia-ba...-worried-nation

Thanks Laura I feel much better now, the tone of her voice was so reassuring, bit like a bedtime story from my mum :lol:

 

 

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Does anyone know what happens to gold bullion coins involved in a housefire?

I've always wondered w.r.t. my stash, but has anyone got any specific knowledge on this?

 

Gold has a melting point of 1064 Celcius, so kruggers and britannias should be alloys that melt in that ballpark temperature range. Is that hotter than a typical housefire?

 

Also, would smoke damage make bullion coins unidentifiable or unsellable? Could a fire-damaged coin still be sold for a decent % of spot?

 

Thanks in advance

 

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Julian Robertson suggests gold miners, who can thrive even on falling gold price. . BTW, he thinks gold bugs are nuts and that gold will not go through the roof.

 

The is also an interesting longer term cycle paper on gold ore prices predicting a potential leg of 35% down (from c. early 9 price levels). There's also a recent paper about the performance of long term TA that argues little historical correlation on return over the long term.

 

There's a bias I urge everybody to look up and internalize what it means to their own thinking.

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Julian Robertson suggests gold miners, who can thrive even on falling gold price. . BTW, he thinks gold bugs are nuts and that gold will not go through the roof.

 

The is also an interesting longer term cycle paper on gold ore prices predicting a potential leg of 35% down (from c. early 9 price levels). There's also a recent paper about the performance of long term TA that argues little historical correlation on return over the long term.

 

There's a bias I urge everybody to look up and internalize what it means to their own thinking.

 

He's reiterating Bob Hoye's thesis (gold goes down but not as much as everything else, and so gold miners become highly profitable).

Why doesn't he disclose the name of the gold expert he talks about? That really annoyed me and made me want to give him a smack!

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Does anyone know what happens to gold bullion coins involved in a housefire?

I've always wondered w.r.t. my stash, but has anyone got any specific knowledge on this?

 

Gold has a melting point of 1064 Celcius, so kruggers and britannias should be alloys that melt in that ballpark temperature range. Is that hotter than a typical housefire?

 

Also, would smoke damage make bullion coins unidentifiable or unsellable? Could a fire-damaged coin still be sold for a decent % of spot?

 

Thanks in advance

It depends where the gold is stored. Most parts of a house fire do not get above 600 Celsius but the glowing heart, deep in the middle of the fire can get to 1300 Celsius. If you coins are in there then they will lose any numismatic value. Even a molten lump of gold though can be sold within a 5% of spot but your fiat paper will be ashes.

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Does anyone know what happens to gold bullion coins involved in a housefire?

I've always wondered w.r.t. my stash, but has anyone got any specific knowledge on this?

 

Gold has a melting point of 1064 Celcius, so kruggers and britannias should be alloys that melt in that ballpark temperature range. Is that hotter than a typical housefire?

 

Also, would smoke damage make bullion coins unidentifiable or unsellable? Could a fire-damaged coin still be sold for a decent % of spot?

 

Thanks in advance

 

although i'm not an expert i would think 1000 degrees is doubtful in a house fire - maybe in isolated hot spots but you have to be unlucky for it to be in the same place as your gold.

 

smoke damage is nothing on gold - it can be cleaned off pretty easily with the right chemicals and won't effect the coins at all. once cleaned i doubt you could tell the difference.

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Why doesn't he disclose the name of the gold expert he talks about? That really annoyed me and made me want to give him a smack!

 

Considering the review was done at the Value investing congress in October, I assume it has to be one of these:

 

* Julian Robertson, Tiger Management

* Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Capital

* Bill Ackman, Pershing Square, L.P.

* David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital

* Alexander Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management

* Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management

* Sean Dobson, Amherst Securities

* Lloyd Khaner, Khaner Capital

* David Nierenberg, The D3 Family Funds

* Paul Isaac, Cadogan Management

* Candace King Weir & Amelia F. Weir, Paradigm Capital Management

* Jason A. Stock & William C. Waller, M3 Funds

* Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital Partners

* Kian Ghazi, Hawkshaw Capital Management

* Whitney Tilson & Glenn Tongue, T2 Partners

 

My bet is David Einhorn of Greenlight. They have had a strong Gold ETF position, but have transferred that to physical gold due to efficiency. They also have largish (4%) position on Gold miners ETF.

 

Einhorn's position on gold in his VIC 09 speech.

 

In short, he believes gold is a good hedge against bad monetary/fiscal policies and will probably do well in future, esp. if there is a sovereign default. Better than holding cash - both at zero interest currently. If sound policies are reinstated, he will exit gold. He also has a twist on Robertson's CMS bond trick - buying higher yield options on JAP/US bonds. That may prove to be a very clever me and me thinks it should be copied :)

 

 

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