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So what is it to be? Dollar up, Gold down or Gold up, Dollar down? The next few weeks could be worth watching very closely. Personally I see both trends reversing a bit so I'm going with Dollar up and gold down. It's about time Prechter got it right on Gold. Not too sure about 700 though. :o

I am pretty much in the camp looking for a market reversal and dollar strength, yet I think it will be next to impossible to time it. I am not sure about it taking place in the next few weeks, perhaps it will be in the next few months. The markets could just continue to meander sideways here. I wouldn't be surprised to see one last hoorah in the markets before the reversal. And then it might take some catalyzing event for that reversal to take place.

 

Looking at the silver/gold chart. I wonder if we might see the ratio stick at around 60 for a couple more months, as it did at 70, before closing to near 50 on one last spending spree in the market. But then, I half suspect this is just reflecting my own [Xmas] wishes. :rolleyes:

 

gold_1_year_silver-3.png

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DOUBLE POST

 

FYI (though I'm sure you already know) Prechter sees silver as signalling that gold will fall as it is 'overvalued'. Dollar will bottom as gold tops out and wave three down will bring us the biggest falls in stocks for THREE CENTURIES.

So basically stocks crash massively any time soon, dollar rally for a year or so, gold and silver down as another round of deleveraging beginneth. Deflation, thanks to social mood, will turn any recovery on its head.

 

It will be interesting to see what is going to happen. Will gold/silver become the safe haven/flight to safety or will the dollar once again become the major beneficiary for the time being?

I suspect, in this scenario, gold will go down like last time, so not so bad, then bounce back up. Silver same. I also think that gold will still look good (or better) in your eyes ie Dow/gold, Houses/gold by the time wave 3 ends, this despite the fiat price per oz falling. Perhaps even your (GF). price ratios could be met if we see Prechters wave 3 down being the worst in 3 Centuries.

We live in interesting times

 

So what is it to be? Dollar up, Gold down or Gold up, Dollar down? The next few weeks could be worth watching very closely. Personally I see both trends reversing a bit so I'm going with Dollar up and gold down. It's about time Prechter got it right on Gold. Not too sure about 700 though. :o

Why does anyone pay any attention to what Prechter says, he has been wrong all the way through this gold bull run and continues to be so.

 

DrBubb made an interesting post the other detailing how wrong Prechter has been lately. I pity anyone who follows this guy, you must be losing a fortune.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135887

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Why does anyone pay any attention to what Prechter says, he has been wrong all the way through this gold bull run and continues to be so.

 

DrBubb made an interesting post the other detailing how wrong Prechter has been lately. I pity anyone who follows this guy, you must be losing a fortune.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135887

 

I wouldn't bet on that. I have no ideas where those figures come from nor the reliability of them. Don't get me wrong. I have labored through Prechter and pointed out his mistakes re gold since 2001. But it is difficult to cut him to pieces after studying him closely. he has been right since calling the top and bottom and top again now in stocks. I know nothing from 1985 and I'll admit that. But IF he is right and gold falls to 680-700 will you eat your pants? For me the 'markets can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent' line may prove him right.

FWIW though I am still chipping away buying gold and silver, so dont get angry at me, though a lot less than I was doing in 2004. :huh::P

I am more Ian Gordon than Bob Prechter, but I like to keep abreast of what Prechter is recommending and not throw the baby out with the bath water.

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I wouldn't bet on that. I have no ideas where those figures come from nor the reliability of them. Don't get me wrong. I have labored through Prechter and pointed out his mistakes re gold since 2001. But it is difficult to cut him to pieces after studying him closely. he has been right since calling the top and bottom and top again now in stocks. I know nothing from 1985 and I'll admit that. But IF he is right and gold falls to 680-700 will you eat your pants? For me the 'markets can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent' line may prove him right.

FWIW though I am still chipping away buying gold and silver, so dont get angry at me, though a lot less than I was doing in 2004. :huh::P

I am more Ian Gordon than Bob Prechter, but I like to keep abreast of what Prechter is recommending and not throw the baby out with the bath water.

I will eat mine, if you promise to eat yours if it doesn't go the way you are expecting.

 

Prechter has been completely wrong on gold all the way through this bull run, in fact he is turning out to be a very good contra indicator, bit like GEI's ker.

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I will eat mine, if you promise to eat yours if it doesn't go the way you are expecting.

 

Prechter has been completely wrong on gold all the way through this bull run, in fact he is turning out to be a very good contra indicator, bit like GEI's ker.

 

 

Hell... Pix, I quit wearing pants years ago. I'll be very happy to see gold go up to 1200 by Nov 5th and strangely equally happy if it drops back to triple digits. Just buy more, I guess. Actually I'm really after silver at the mo. but gold is OK. As to Prechter being a Ker like gold contra, I wouldn't know. But I think Ker has had his fair share of pants to eat off members from this forum. All these moves take time and it is easy to get rash esp on gold. I think I will hold off suggesting anyone eats pants till we have the big stock correction. Prechter thinks down below recent lows, any thoughts on that one? How that affects gold and silver again I am not totally confident. It might be a signal to run for safety or it might be a signal to sell gold/silver fast. We'll see. I guess it depends on how strapped for cash (fiat) those holders of gold really are. I wont be selling mine either way because I am confident (and so is RP) that gold will be way up in the future.

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Hell... Pix, I quit wearing pants years ago. I'll be very happy to see gold go up to 1200 by Nov 5th and strangely equally happy if it drops back to triple digits. Just buy more, I guess. Actually I'm really after silver at the mo. but gold is OK. As to Prechter being a Ker like gold contra, I wouldn't know. But I think Ker has had his fair share of pants to eat off members from this forum. All these moves take time and it is easy to get rash esp on gold. I think I will hold off suggesting anyone eats pants till we have the big stock correction. Prechter thinks down below recent lows, any thoughts on that one? How that affects gold and silver again I am not totally confident. It might be a signal to run for safety or it might be a signal to sell gold/silver fast. We'll see. I guess it depends on how strapped for cash (fiat) those holders of gold really are. I wont be selling mine either way because I am confident (and so is RP) that gold will be way up in the future.

To me it all depends on weather the FED carries on with it's policy of Quantitative Easing. I agree there will be deflation, but only when you price something in the only real money that they can't print more of - Gold.

 

I was reading a very interesting article by James Turk recently on his FGMR site. It shows that the S&P has been increasing at the same rate that the FED has been monetizing debt. Do you see the FED stopping QE soon? If they do, who is going to be buying the increasing amounts of treasuries that they are issuing? Over $100 billion new treasuries to be issued this week alone, a new all time high. How many of those do you think they will be buying themselves with their freshly printed dollars?

 

Basically the graph below shows that stocks have not increased in comparison to the amount of debt being monetized, so really there has been no increase in the stocks value just more fiat currency in the system.

 

http://www.fgmr.com/hyperinflation-watch-o...er-21-2009.html

 

Quantitative%20easing%20stocks.jpg

 

I also think a much better way to look at the stock market is to look at it valued in gold. Looks like a steady slide to me.

 

DJIA-Gold-Ratio.png

 

I will remain 'all in' on PMs untill I see this graph bottom, which I am expecting to be at 1:1 or below.

 

 

 

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I will remain 'all in' on PMs untill I see this graph bottom, which I am expecting to be at 1:1 or below.

 

Once again. 100% AGREE with you. I am not for changing my PM's for any fiat currency, unless forced. I just would be concerned about going 'all in 'right now.

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Once again. 100% AGREE with you. I am not for changing my PM's for any fiat currency, unless forced. I just would be concerned about going 'all in 'right now.

Ok I understand now, I would try to average in the rest of your fiat over the next couple of months, buy on the 26th/27th. How much are we talking about percentage wise is still in fiat?

 

 

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Ok I understand now, I would try to average in the rest of your fiat over the next couple of months, buy on the 26th/27th. How much are we talking about percentage wise is still in fiat?

 

Nothing. Well hardly. Plus monthly income. But believe it or not I am trying to discipline myself into building a 'cash hedge'. laughable isn't it? Thats just in case Prechter is right for 2012. As I have said before fiat cash makes me nervous now and I'd rather not have it, or much of it.

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Ker has been quoting analysts incorrectly, trying to make out they are agreeing with him when they actually are saying the complete opposite. Is this guy a shill or what?

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=136593

 

 

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Nothing. Well hardly. Plus monthly income. But believe it or not I am trying to discipline myself into building a 'cash hedge'. laughable isn't it? Thats just in case Prechter is right for 2012. As I have said before fiat cash makes me nervous now and I'd rather not have it, or much of it.

It requires a zen-like discipline to build a cash position once you have been enamoured with gold.

 

Repeating the following mantra may help.....the investor must not be ruled by emotion... the investor must not be ruled by emotion... :lol:

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PIXEL, KINDLY TALK STRAIGHT !

 

Oh no, DrBubb is saying "Gold May be Done Here" again (we all know what happened last time - haha)

 

As I have been explaining for the last couple of days, it is the november option expiry day at the moment so the cartel is now throwing everything at try to get the price down. I actually believe this week will be a big test for the dollar on Thursday and Friday.

 

The world and its dog is looking for a dollar bounce based on what, a falling wedge pattern on a chart. Ignoring the fundamentals completely, like the fact that they will sell the most treasuries ever this week with over $100 billion being sold. I wonder how many the fed will be buying of those it's self with newly printed dollars. How is printing lots more dollars supposed to make the value of the dollar increase?

 

The pressure is on this week for the dollar really not gold, the dollar is very close to its all time low and about to break lower, while gold is very close to its all time high and about to break higher.

 

Have you got your charts the wrong way up again DrB?

 

What actually happened after my mid-May posting?

Gold rose for a few days, and then slid and traded sideways for two months.

 

A little later, I suggested that Gold would be a BUY in late August.

 

Go back and read the thread, if you have any doubts.

As you know, we retained the Title, which was not the original titlle, in order to give a forum on GEI for those who were not knee-jerk Gold Bulls.

 

How was YOUR CALL, Pixel ?

Have you done any better with your calls?

(Perhaps, your Gold call above is already in Loss - let's track how Gold does from GLD-$xxx, the closing the day before that posting.)

 

I really do not appreciate your spreading misinformation !!

 

You also know that I have never been short gold. I am using SPX puts as my hedge for my remaining Gold longs.

As I have said on my DrB's Diary, my net position has been making money over the last several months.

Now, as SPX has fallen in recent days, several puts have now gone back in profit

 

Do you think you are doing better with your own positions?

Let's run a trading competition through a whole cycle, and see who does better

 

== == ==

 

I have used the above, as the basis of a new thread, see:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=8118

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It requires a zen-like discipline to build a cash position once you have been enamoured with gold.

 

Repeating the following mantra may help.....the investor must not be ruled by emotion... the investor must not be ruled by emotion... :lol:

 

Haha..You're so right. But I'd add silver into that enamoured bit. At least I came to the right country (for Zen). The emotional part is rather difficult to control, hence refraining, where I can, from Numismatics.

 

As Oscar said 'I can resist everything. Except temptation.'

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PIXEL, KINDLY TALK STRAIGHT !

 

 

 

What actually happened after my mid-May posting?

Gold rose for a few days, and then slid and traded sideways for two months.

 

A little later, I suggested that Gold would be a BUY in late August.

 

Go back and read the thread, if you have any doubts.

As you know, we retained the Title, which was not the original titlle, in order to give a forum on GEI for those who were not knee-jerk Gold Bulls.

 

How was YOUR CALL, Pixel ?

Have you done any better with your calls?

(Perhaps, your Gold call above is already in Loss - let's track how Gold does from GLD-$xxx, the closing the day before that posting.)

 

I really do not appreciate your spreading misinformation !!

 

You also know that I have never been short gold. I am using SPX puts as my hedge for my remaining Gold longs.

As I have said on my DrB's Diary, my net position has been making money over the last several months.

Now, as SPX has fallen in recent days, several puts have now gone back in profit

 

Do you think you are doing better with your own positions?

Let's run a trading competition through a whole cycle, and see who does better

 

== == ==

 

I have used the above, as the basis of a new thread, see:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=8118

 

I sense the kraken has been awoken be careful!! :lol::lol:

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All this talk of trading/investing ...

 

Don't trade or invest (gold isn't an investment). BUY PHYSICAL.

 

Good buying op coming up (hopefully).

 

I noticed you say this a while back, and I did not understand your reasoning at the time.

I suspect (please correct me if I am wrong) that you also say "gold is money".

I also suspect you would say "gold is not a commodity".

 

My views have been evolving, and I think I now understand why you say that.

 

It is an aspect that is quite fascinating, and I am trying to fully grasp the details of that world view.

I do believe it is the correct one, and my reading so far suggests that VERY few people understand it.

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Paul Tudor Jones ♥ gold - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/29...dor-jones-gold/

 

Here’s his conclusion:

In our opinion, the scope for increased investment demand over the coming years is much stronger than the potential for new supply. As a result, incremental new demand must buy gold from current holders. With a macro backdrop that suggests gold is undervalued, we doubt the transfer of gold from current holders to its new owners will occur at, or near, current prices.

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Tudor's shop whole analysis is here at Scribd.

 

Couple of graphs worth noting from the Tudor report:

 

Inflation adjusted gold price - last peak $1600-$2400, depending on inflation metric

2uz5bhu.png

 

Global mkt cap of gold / global M2

o60cic.png

 

BTW, monetary base chart looks scary, but it is not the money supply until unleashed. Look at the money supply for clues. It's in there.

 

 

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Couple of graphs worth noting from the Tudor report:

 

Inflation adjusted gold price - last peak $1600-$2400, depending on inflation metric

 

Global mkt cap of gold / global M2

So, Tudor considers something similar to the MZM (Approximity) or External Debt (Sinclair) model. But M2 is of course not broad enough. See also the 'gold conspiracy' thread. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=136956

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So, Tudor considers something similar to the MZM (Approximity) or External Debt (Sinclair) model. But M2 is of course not broad enough.

 

Yes, we've covered that. I was critical of the Approximity mode, but was now quite taken aback to find such a strong correlation with US M2 vs world M2 (vs gold cap global). I think this is a worldwide phenomenon and gold cap (global) should be compared to worldwide M2 - looking at US only is too simplistic, and might only indicate if gold goes up in nominal USD (and not in most OECD currencies). But alas, Tudor shop stat is global and it agrees fairly well with the US only data.

 

Wish they'd plotted the raw for each (M2 aggregate and gold) and not the ratio - that would have been even more indicative and one could have always done the ratio oneself.

 

But yeah, evidence is piling up, even from non-gold bug (ie. non-nutter gold-expert) sources. Probably time to pile up some in a dip. I wash hoping for a bit longer USD rally than just these past days, but it looks like it might have ended.

 

 

 

 

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