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GOLD and COT data...

 

 

My eyeballs see this

zzzzny.gif

 

Let's check and see how accurate that is...

 

It works rather well ... Gold chart update

zzzzo.gif

 

In contemplating what may come next, I make a comparison with the gold breakout in 2005/6,

and I see that gold ran higher (by over $200?) after the Commercial shorts had hit its maximum - was this short-covering?

 

That may happen again, and if it does, Gold may not be done yet.

But if the Commercials are not forced to cover, then Gold could be done at/near $1100.

 

An interesting golden battleground, we are in now.

 

Nice work Bubb! Any chance you could repeat with Silver?

 

Should be crystal clear to people that following the so called 'smart' money, without analysis such as yours, is a fools errand. However, saying that I still would not sell any physical gold/silver in this economic environment!

 

 

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http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow...;secID=livenews

 

There seems to be no stopping for gold prices, due to weak dollar as it hovered near last week`s lifetime high above USD 1,100 after a weaker-than-expected US unemployment rate revived worries about the health of the global economy, reports Economic Times.

 

 

 

Gold has gained as much as 25.2% in 2009, driven by persistent weakness in the US currency.

 

 

 

Cash gold added USD 3.95 an ounce to USD 1,100.25 an ounce by 0306 GMT, having hit an intraday high of USD 1,100.40 - within striking distance of Friday`s record high of USD 1,100.90.

 

 

 

US gold futures for December delivery rose USD 5.0 an ounce to USD 1,100.7 an ounce after striking a record of USD 1,101.90 last week. Japan`s foreign reserves rose to a record high for the third straight month in October partly as rising gold prices inflated the value of its gold holdings.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) signaled that record low US interest rates are funding global carry trades and the dollar is still overvalued as concerns mount that new financial imbalances are forming.

 

 

 

US government figures released on Friday showed that the nation`s unemployment rate topped 10.2% in October, lifting expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero well into next year, and thus pressuring the dollar.

 

 

 

The world`s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings stood at 1,108.344 tons as of Nov 6, unchanged from the previous business day. Noncommercial net long US gold futures positions fell 0.2% to 241,319 lots in the week to Nov. 3 from 241,777, a weekly report by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

 

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It works rather well ... Gold chart update

zzzzo.gif

Do your eyes not see the action of the cartel? As the price of gold has gone up they have taken a larger and larger naked short positions. I say that they are naked as there is the supply of physical for them to make good with. You can't tell me that there has been increased hedging by miners as the price has gone up and that is why they are short. The hedgers are being forced to clear, yet still the short position grows.

 

 

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In contemplating what may come next, I make a comparison with the gold breakout in 2005/6,

and I see that gold ran higher (by over $200?) after the Commercial shorts had hit its maximum - was this short-covering?

 

That may happen again, and if it does, Gold may not be done yet.

But if the Commercials are not forced to cover, then Gold could be done at/near $1100.

 

An interesting battleground, we are in now.

That is what is happening now a "commercial signal failure" as I have been explaining for months, they seem to happen every couple of years.

 

When you say "then Gold could be done at/near £1100" what do you mean? Do you mean that it will have a temporary break there or that is the highest it will get to on this bull run. which is now 9 years old.

 

The commercial shorts (cartel paper sellers) are being put in the position where they can't deliver on the physical gold they promise so we end up with a commercial signal failure.

 

Pixel8rs-Lines-1.jpg

 

 

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Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) signaled that record low US interest rates are funding global carry trades and the dollar is still overvalued as concerns mount that new financial imbalances are forming.

They would say that. The IMF largely represents US interests. It is in interests of the US to have investors believe the dollar will continue lower, and that the carry trade into stocks, commodities and markets in general therefore makes sound economic/ speculative sense.

 

They want a lower dollar, but you don't always get what you want.

 

 

[Edited for this thread, there are other arguments for gold besides this apparent flood of liquidity.]

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It works rather well ... Gold chart update

zzzzo.gif

Nice chart and nice channels.

 

FWIW, the trend is my friend.

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Nice chart and nice channels.

 

FWIW, the trend is my friend.

The trend being that the commercials will keep going shorter and shorter until their game is up!

 

 

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He is still picking, isn't he?

Sadly yes. Perhaps he should listen to what Stewart Thomson of Graceland Updates has to say:

 

Many of you, despite watching gold soar $200, are STILL caught up in calling a top. Gold is going to THOUSANDS of dollars an ounce and you will make ZERO by the end of this bull mkt if you keep up those ACTIONS. You could actually arrive at gold $2000 a gold LOSER. CHANGE YOUR WAYS NOW. IT’S NOT TOO LATE, NOT AT ALL.

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The trend being that the commercials will keep going shorter and shorter until their game is up!

 

I think the commercials think that a gold making machine is just around the corner...if they only hang on a bit longer...I'm sure the hadron collider will be able to produce a spec of au.

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I think the commercials think that a gold making machine is just around the corner...if they only hang on a bit longer...I'm sure the hadron collider will be able to produce a spec of au.

 

Back in 2007 or so the production cost of gold was about 300 usd or less?

 

If the production cost of a house is 100000 today will it rises past the current updated production cost with inflation tomorrow?

 

I assume the producers are timing release of gold to the market at price peaks and storing it the rest of the time which you would guess most buisinesses would do in the circumstances and shorting the hell out of it the rest of the time if that is something that makes sense to them. When they get the price lower they release the shorts and sell into the rally.

 

And given the nature of the buisiness you can imagine they finance all manner of gold ramping propoganda web sites commentators and so forth.

 

The diamond cartels work a similar gig with the value of their minerals. You as customer buy high and you sell low.

 

The tree growers work the same scene. When prices are high every man and his dog is encouraged to invest in forestry land.......and 30 years later when prices are high the stuff is sold off and if prices are not high the trees can grow a bit bigger.

 

But maybe i am wrong about the production cost of gold?

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Back in 2007 or so the production cost of gold was about 300 usd or less?

 

If the production cost of a house is 100000 today will it rise past the current updated production cost with inflation tomorrow?

 

I assume the producers are timing release of gold to the market at price peaks and storing it the rest of the time which you would guess most buisinesses would do in the circumstances and shorting the hell out of it the rest of the time if that is something that makes sense to them. When they get the price lower they release the shorts and sell into the rally.

 

And given the nature of the buisiness you can imagine they finance all manner of gold ramping propoganda web sites commentators and so forth.

 

The diamond cartels work a similar gig with the value of their minerals. You as customer buy high and you sell low.

 

But maybe i am wrong about the production cost of gold?

 

The production cost of gold is not something that I spend a lot of time thinking about. The market price is what concerns me.

 

If a gold producer wants to spend effort, time and money on finding and digging up gold only to keep it in a warehouse so that he can sell it later, then that is up to them. If they pay their employees in newly minted fiat money from the government so that they can both keep this jig going, then they all deserve whats coming to them.

 

Edit to add: entwine what Bubb says here to get a fuller picture of malinvestment: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=139845

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The production cost of gold is not something that I spend a lot of time thinking about. The market price is what concerns me.

 

If a gold producer wants to spend effort, time and money on finding and digging up gold only to keep it in a warehouse so that he can sell it later, then that is up to them. If they pay their employees in newly minted fiat money from the government so that they can both keep this jig going, then they all deserve whats coming to them.

 

Edit to add: entwine what Bubb says here to get a fuller picture of malinvestment: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=139845

 

FWIW

 

What you say does not make sense to me. You might have a job and you work and are paid in fiat and you probably store gold. The gold producer does the same. Whats coming to you? i am assuming profits will come to you. Most of us dont hold fiat unless it is useful to hold it - for example property prices have peaked and we are expecting to buy later for lower prices.

 

Similarly somebody like Jim Rogers is bullish on oil but he says he is 'not going to buy at 140 dollars because oil is at an oil time but sure he holds oil'........he probably sold some at those highs and bought at the recent lows. He and others drive the price up and down by knowing when to sell and when to hold. To get the price to the peaks someobody has to buy off jim rogers at the peaks so he can buy later at the lows. That is his game to at least some degree even if says he is not a market timer. If he knows when not to buy - which is what he told us...then he also knows when to sell dispite 'not being a market timer'

 

I cant see how buying and selling gold can be anything but mal investment. How does that benefit the world we live in to obsess over that? At least a person lives in a house or creates stuff from trees. Gold? mainly a speculative play surely? The more it goes up and down the bigger the profit for those who understand how to play.

 

I never read the link but perhaps malinvestment is a kind of central planning communist type of idea that somehow you can plan the future and lead people into better living. To a degree, greed is good. The greedy take risks that the less greedy dont need because somebody else is creating their life for them..........or so they think.

 

Edit:

 

I read the link. Debtors = savers. You cant have massive debts without massive savings.

 

So a massive number want to spend and a massive number want to enable other people to spend.

 

When that dynamic changes then interest rates will rise to encourage the savers to remain enablers. At the moment the savers are being encouraged to be the spenders because they are not being encouraged to save - instead the spenders are spending less. Net it seems there is still plenty of spending at this point in time.

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The trend being that the commercials will keep going shorter and shorter until their game is up!

Exactly. Then we would see a major move away from recently visible chart schemes.

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But maybe i am wrong about the production cost of gold?

Maybe the production cost does not matter all that much for a monetary asset that has an only very slowly changing above ground stock. :rolleyes:

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The production cost of gold is not something that I spend a lot of time thinking about. The market price is what concerns me.

 

If a gold producer wants to spend effort, time and money on finding and digging up gold only to keep it in a warehouse so that he can sell it later, then that is up to them. If they pay their employees in newly minted fiat money from the government so that they can both keep this jig going, then they all deserve whats coming to them.

 

Edit to add: entwine what Bubb says here to get a fuller picture of malinvestment: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=139845

The production cost of gold has actually gone down a fair bit over the last year. A large part of the production cost is oil and as this has fallen from $148 to $35 they are saving a lot. A number of miners took out futures on oil while it was so cheap, locking in continued cheap production costs for themselves.

 

 

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Maybe the production cost does not matter all that much for a monetary asset that has an only very slowly changing above ground stock. :rolleyes:

 

I'm glad that someone understands me! :lol:

 

Remember there is lots of gold in the oceans (and I don't just mean treasure!) :P

 

 

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The production cost of gold has actually gone down a fair bit over the last year. A large part of the production cost is oil and as this has fallen from $148 to $35 they are saving a lot. A number of miners took out futures on oil while it was so cheap, locking in continued cheap production costs for themselves.

 

Have you got a list of these miners that did this?

 

They are very smart and I would use that info as a selection criteria!

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Have you got a list of these miners that did this?

 

They are very smart and I would use that info as a selection criteria!

No sorry no list. I have just read it a few times while doing research.

 

 

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Gold Bars Selling Like Hotcakes At Harrods - http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodg...VOqlwYAAAB09X0G

 

Gold - a six thousand year-old bubble - http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/gold...ear-old-bubble/

This guy seems to have totally washed over the history, properties and attributes of gold quite purposefully, IMO. Please feel free to put him right in the articles comments with facts, quotes, etc.

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Gold Bars Selling Like Hotcakes At Harrods - http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodg...VOqlwYAAAB09X0G

 

Has anyone from GEI popped into Al Fayed's corner shop basement and seen what business is like?

 

“The response has been astounding,” said Chris Hall, head of Harrods Gold Bullion. “Bars are definitely more popular than coins. The 100-gram is the most popular.”...

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I am starting to notice a spooky correlation between 'tension' on GEI and subsequent POG increase - I may have to start using it as a guide.

easily translated as BIG EGoS getting it WRoNG.!! ;)

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FWIW

 

What you say does not make sense to me. You might have a job and you work and are paid in fiat and you probably store gold. The gold producer does the same. Whats coming to you? i am assuming profits will come to you. Most of us dont hold fiat unless it is useful to hold it - for example property prices have peaked and we are expecting to buy later for lower prices.

 

Similarly somebody like Jim Rogers is bullish on oil but he says he is 'not going to buy at 140 dollars because oil is at an oil time but sure he holds oil'........he probably sold some at those highs and bought at the recent lows. He and others drive the price up and down by knowing when to sell and when to hold. To get the price to the peaks someobody has to buy off jim rogers at the peaks so he can buy later at the lows. That is his game to at least some degree even if says he is not a market timer. If he knows when not to buy - which is what he told us...then he also knows when to sell dispite 'not being a market timer'

 

I cant see how buying and selling gold can be anything but mal investment. How does that benefit the world we live in to obsess over that? At least a person lives in a house or creates stuff from trees. Gold? mainly a speculative play surely? The more it goes up and down the bigger the profit for those who understand how to play.

 

I never read the link but perhaps malinvestment is a kind of central planning communist type of idea that somehow you can plan the future and lead people into better living. To a degree, greed is good. The greedy take risks that the less greedy dont need because somebody else is creating their life for them..........or so they think.

 

Edit:

 

I read the link. Debtors = savers. You cant have massive debts without massive savings.

 

So a massive number want to spend and a massive number want to enable other people to spend.

 

When that dynamic changes then interest rates will rise to encourage the savers to remain enablers. At the moment the savers are being encouraged to be the spenders because they are not being encouraged to save - instead the spenders are spending less. Net it seems there is still plenty of spending at this point in time.

:blink::blink::blink:

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Asia Gold-Indian jewellers snap up gold, shrug off record price

 

SINGAPORE, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Indian jewellers chased gold bars on Monday as a firm rupee currency helped consumers cope with bullion's rise to an all-time high in the middle of the country's wedding season.

 

Purchases from India kept premiums for gold bars steady in Singapore at 40 to 60 U.S. cents to spot London levels, while fears about further gains in prices spurred buying from the electronics sector in Hong Kong.

 

Gold XAU= hit a high of $1,106.60 an ounce to surpass Friday's record of $1,100.90 on safe haven buying driven by weakness in the dollar, expectations of more buying from central banks and fears about the health of the global economy.

 

Dealers noted sales from Indonesia but the limited amount of scrap being returned to the physical market despite record prices suggested that holders expected more gains.

 

"I see purchases from India. Athough it's not really a buying spree, I would say it's quite good," said a dealer in Singapore. "If you calculate the price in rupees, it's still OK for them," he said.

 

Gold jewellery is presented as a gift at Hindu marriages in India, the world's largest consumer, and forms an essential part of the dowry basket. India accounted for more than 20 percent of global demand for gold jewellery last year. Continued...

 

 

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