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$1116 /oz for gold (new all time record), silver still sticky in the mid-$17s (not even a high for this year)

I think, if someone were to post a picture of a rocket, it should be only gold.

 

Silver is dissappointing us all. Hopefully comex price dislocation will occur soon.

 

Precious..............

 

Nick

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I think, if someone were to post a picture of a rocket, it should be only gold.

 

Silver is dissappointing us all. Hopefully comex price dislocation will occur soon.

 

Precious..............

 

Nick

That or CFTC puts into place the much talked about position limits.

 

 

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http://jsmineset.com/2009/11/11/the-battle-at-the-bridge/

 

The Battle At The Bridge

Posted: Nov 11 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: November 11, 2009 at 2:21 pm

 

Filed under: General Editorial

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

The currency intervention, both real and oral, is a waste of time as the euro will trade well above the $1.50 level. This is not because it is worth it but it is another inverse to the US dollar which is headed considerably lower.

 

The mistake that governments always makes in its assumed omnipotence is that intervention, certainly at a key number like $1.50, is that when the market realizes it is over moving momentum goes ballistic on the upside. That renders all the talk, skewed figures and wasted intervention money as not only useless but contra-productive.

 

In a floating system governments should know they cannot not enforce currency parity rates.

 

Parity rates are fixed currency highs and lows from the Bretton Woods days.

 

All talking heads on this subject were gleams in the eyes of their parents back then, not even in diapers, but do claim expertise.

 

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A rock-solid case for gold reserves

 

"As for the argument that U.S. dollars are backed by the biggest gold reserves in the world, so holding them in reserve is relatively safe, that's rubbish. True, the U.S. has a lot of gold, 8,100 tonnes of it officially, or 77 per cent of its reserves. But it's well known in bullion circles that a lot or most of it has been lent out to banks and whatnot that sell it short, depressing its value." …

 

Fabrice Taylor

The Globe and Mail, Toronto

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

 

 

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The Day the Bears lost Control of Gold

 

By Bill Downey

 

Nov 9 2009 2:24PM

 

In was another incredible month as gold continued to outshine all other major investment themes by being the only investment that has broken out to new highs since the global meltdown of 2008.

 

The magnitude of this event is one where gold spent 19 months hovering below the 1000 level and finally broke out to the upside.

 

Since the beginning of September the gold price is up from 940 to 1100 in less than seventy days. What happened in late August? Technically speaking, it’s where the Bears lost control of the market.

 

Look at how many times the bears tried to collapse this uptrend. On nine separate occasions the bears shorted this market and every spike down was GREETED WITH FRESH BUYING. It is a great display of a market turning point.

 

There was one final element necessary to complete the process and that was the point of recognition and that was where the shorts began to cover and NEW market participants entered at the same time. The resultant explosion in price is sometimes called the "point of recognition" where the last three highs on the charts were taken out in FIVE HOURS. That point was a MAJOR reversal of trend and therefore where the bulls retook took control of the gold market.

 

I took a leap of faith and doubled up my core position by adding at around $900/oz; now up over $200/oz (22%+) Original core position (FTB deposit equivalent) established around $600/oz. Up $500/oz. (83% up in dollars, 114% up in GBP) Property down 15-20% from 2007 peak.

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Downey/nov092009.html

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Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out

Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world's top producer Barrick Gold.

 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor

Published: 7:20PM GMT 11 Nov 2009

 

Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.

 

"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London.

 

"Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.

 

Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970.

 

The supply crunch has helped push gold to an all-time high, reaching $1,118 an ounce at one stage yesterday. The key driver over recent days has been the move by India's central bank to soak up half of the gold being sold by the International Monetary Fund. It is the latest sign that the rising powers of Asia and the commodity bloc are growing wary of Western paper money and debt.

 

China has quietly doubled holdings to 1,054 tonnes and is thought to be adding gradually on price dips, creating a market floor. Gold remains a tiny fraction of its $2.3 trillion in foreign reserves.

 

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – dubbed the "People's Central Bank" – have accumulated 1,778 tonnes, making them the fifth biggest holder after the US, Germany, France, and Italy.

 

Ross Norman, director of theBullionDesk.com, said exploration budgets had tripled since the start of the decade with stubbornly disappointing results so far.

 

Output fell a further 14pc in South Africa last year as companies were forced to dig ever deeper - at greater cost - to replace depleted reserves, not helped by "social uplift" rules and power cuts. Harmony Gold said yesterday that it may close two more mines over coming months due to poor ore grades.

 

Mr Norman said the "false mine of central banks" had been the only new source of gold supply this decade as they auction off reserves, but they are switching sides to become net buyers.

 

Barrick is moving fast to wind down the remaining 3m ounces of its infamous hedge book over the next twelve months, an implicit bet on rising gold prices over time.

 

Mr Regent said the company had waited too long to ditch the policy, which has made the company enemy number one among 'gold bug' enthusiasts. The hedges oblige Barrick to deliver part of its gold into futures contracts set long ago at levels far below today's spot prices.

 

The strategy worked well in the falling market of the 1990s, but has cost the company dear in lost profits this decade. "Hindsight is always 20/20," said Mr Regent, who was appointed from the outside earlier this year.

 

Barrick bit the bullet in the third quarter, taking a $5.7bn charge against earnings on hedge contracts. Liberation is at last in sight. In 2001 the hedge book topped 20m ounces.

 

Mr Regent said the hedge policy has weighed badly on the share price and irked investors, becoming a bone of contention at every meeting. The financial crisis brought matters to a head as markets fretted about counterparty risk. "It was clear to me that there were a significant number of institutions who wouldn't invest in Barrick because of the hedge book," he said.

 

Barrick produced 1.9m ounces of gold last quarter, down from 1.95m a year earlier. Costs have been "trending down" to $456 an ounce, though rising energy prices pose a fresh threat. Total reserves are 139m ounces, far ahead of rival Newmont Mining at 86m.

 

The hedge book venture has not been a happy one, but those who predicted that Barrick would eventually "blow up" on its contracts may owe the company an apology.

 

 

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Puru has my ear.

Is there anything which looks negative about this chart, why all the gold bears holding out for a deflationary discount.

 

It looks to me that we have just broken through the resistance and are now moving into the next stage. Resistance becomes the new floor, which is on an angle not flat. I doubt very much we will see $900 again.

 

Gentlemen start your engines, $1350 here we come.

 

Gold_USD.jpg

 

 

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$1116 /oz for gold (new all time record), silver still sticky in the mid-$17s (not even a high for this year)

USD 1117.10

EUR 745.66

 

at the mo'.

 

The euro price is still well below its record but interestingly today the euro price just steadily increased hour after hour. Pretty unusual.

 

See euro and dollar charts at this link:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/gold_silver...aspx?money=Euro

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Wren

 

Gold looks poised to break through the Euro maximum price of 770 some time before the end of the

year (this rally is analogous to the rally of 2005). The maximum Euro price then was 350 and that was broken and gold reached 400 before January 2006.

 

At the moment, however, RSI is 75, very high so there may be a correction to give a buying opportunity.

I do not expect this to be significant, as gold has attracted some interest lately, and there are many

waiting for a dip to get in.

 

Barrick is also praying for a dip, they still have 3 billion $ to spend from borrowed money to buy back those damned hedges.

 

The big question, is when silver will wake up. Of course, we know silver always plays catching up in

rallies, so big gains are expected later in the winter.

 

 

 

 

 

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My comments in bold:

Wren

 

Gold looks poised to break through the Euro maximum price of 770 some time before the end of the

year (this rally is analogous to the rally of 2005). The maximum Euro price then was 350 and that was broken and gold reached 400 before January 2006.

 

I'm certainly hoping for a great winter for the euro price.

 

At the moment, however, RSI is 75, very high so there may be a correction to give a buying opportunity.

I do not expect this to be significant, as gold has attracted some interest lately, and there are many

waiting for a dip to get in.

 

Barrick is also praying for a dip, they still have 3 billion $ to spend from borrowed money to buy back those damned hedges.

 

If the dollar bounces I still wouldn't be surprised if the euro price holds or even goes up.

 

The big question, is when silver will wake up. Of course, we know silver always plays catching up in

rallies, so big gains are expected later in the winter.

 

Silver has had a great year already. So I don't feel disappointed. Maybe it needs a breather.

 

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Gold supply running out

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...y-runs-out.html

Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world's top producer Barrick Gold.

 

hmm.. AEP might be a VI. Still, data is data.

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Gold supply running out

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...y-runs-out.html

 

 

hmm.. AEP might be a VI. Still, data is data.

Do keep up :)

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=140616

 

 

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Not exactly on topic but this one cracks me up! :lol:

 

White House Aims to Cut Deficit With TARP Cash

 

WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration, under pressure to show it is serious about tackling the budget deficit, is seizing on an unusual target to showcase fiscal responsibility: the $700 billion financial rescue.

 

The administration wants to keep some of the unspent funds available for emergencies, but is considering setting aside a chunk for debt reduction, according to people familiar with the matter. It is also expected to lower the projected long-term cost of the program -- the amount it expects to lose -- to as little as $200 billion from $341 billion estimated in August.

 

A $210 billion surplus in TARP funding could be used to reduced the U.S.'s towering national deficit. WSJ's Deborah Solomon says the move follows criticism of the Obama administration's approach to debt. The idea is still a matter of debate within the administration and it is unclear how much impact it would have on the nation's mounting deficit levels. Still, the potential move illustrates how the Obama administration is trying to find any way it can to bring down the deficit, which is turning into a political as well as an economic liability.

 

WSJ

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Taken from Ker's thread:

(relevant here for daily news, comment and analysis)

 

Gold price will plunge to $800: Marc Faber

2009-11-12 18:15:00

 

Several bullion analysts like Jim Rogers and Jim Sinclair have predicted that gold price would continue to boom. While Jim Rogers says gold price will zoom to $2000, Jim Sinclair has been arguing that the next stop for the yellow metal price is $1650 per ounce.

 

But not every bullion analyst is bullish on gold, the hottest commodity traded in the world. Legendary investing guru Marc Faber says gold price is rising without any fundamental factors and thus the price of the yellow metal will plunge to $900-$800 levels.

 

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-p...-22853-3-1.html

 

Gold Price Won’t Drop Below $1,000 an Ounce Again, Faber Says

 

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold won’t fall below $1,000 an ounce again after rising 27 percent this year to a record as central banks print money to help fund budget deficits, said Marc Faber,

 

“We will not see less than the $1,000 level again,” Faber said at a conference today in London. “Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates. You have to own physical gold.”

 

So which one is it?

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=az6qQ8ZuXg9M

 

Marc Faber Is Conflicted About the Price of Gold

 

Depending upon where you get your news, Gloom, Boom, and Doomer Marc Faber thinks that, after the recent run-up, the price of gold will either:

 

Dip to as low as $800 an ounce, or

Never sink below $1,000 again

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/173062-mar...e-price-of-gold

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Gold price will plunge to $800: Marc Faber

2009-11-12 18:15:00

I swear I heard this contradictory prediction corroberrated on Bloomberg YESTERDAY! - Who is lying?? (or has Marc been smoking again!?)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/faber...ntly-over-1000/

By Barry Ritholtz - November 12th, 2009, 6:57AM

Here’s a interesting take: Marc Faber says that Gold has permanently eclipsed the $1,000 level:

“Gold won’t fall below $1,000 an ounce again after rising 27 percent this year to a record as central banks print money to help fund budget deficits, said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report.

 

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Gold selling has never been able to overcome physical buying from India and I do remember

there were reports of eager physical Indian buying while gold was in the 1080's.

 

Although this sell off may continue for a while this talk about gold plunging to 800 is nonsense.

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On Doing God’s Work

 

-- Posted Thursday, 12 November 2009 | Source: GoldSeek.com

 

By: Rob Kirby

 

“Gold Finger - A New Take On Operation Grand Slam With A Tungsten Twist”

 

I’ve already reported on irregular physical gold settlements which occurred in London, England back in the first week of October, 2009. Specifically, these settlements involved the intermediation of at least one Central Bank [The Bank of England] to resolve allocated settlements on behalf of J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank – who DID NOT have the gold bullion that they had sold short and were contracted to deliver. At the same time I reported on two other unusual occurrences:

 

1] - irregularities in the publication of the gold ETF - GLD’s bar list from Sept. 25 – Oct.14 where the length of the bar list went from 1,381 pages to under 200 pages and then back up to 800 or so pages.

 

2] - reports of 400 oz. “good delivery” bricks of gold found gutted and filled with tungsten within the confines of LBMA approved vaults in Hong Kong.

 

More.....

 

Roughly 15 years ago – during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] – between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes].

 

Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day. I know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs with dates and exact weights of “tungsten” bars shipped to Ft. Knox.

 

The balance of this 1.3 million – 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten cache was also plated and then allegedly “sold” into the international market.

 

Apparently, the global market is literally “stuffed full of 400 oz salted bars”.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8357518.stm

Second SA power executive quits

The chief executive of South Africa's crisis-hit power firm Eskom has left his job, only days after denying he was to quit

...

In each of the next three years electricity prices will go up by 45%, it has been announced.

Dunno if this will affect miners/refiners, but it can't be good for supply of PMs.

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Pixel8r - you seem to be able to get a reply from James Turk OK - fancy putting this to him?

I was actually thinking the same, will report back later ;)

 

 

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GURU OUTLOOK: JIM ROGERS ISN’T BUYING THE EQUITY RALLY

 

Rogers, a follower of Austrian economics, absolutely hates that the Fed is bailing out the banks and attempting to print us to prosperity. He thinks the winners in this printing press environment are commodities which he believes are in the middle of a secular boom. Paper assets and the dollar are the losers in Rogers’ scenario of moneyprinting while real assets win. Rogers is a huge bull on gold miners and gold:

 

“no new large gold mines have been opened in decades. Some of those mines are over 100-years old. They are all depleting. On the other hand, central banks have huge Gold reserves above ground — and they are less interested in selling than in the past.

 

If you adjust Gold for inflation and go back to its former all-time high in 1980, Gold should be over $2,000 an ounce right now if you want to say it’s reaching new inflation adjusted all-time highs. That does not mean Gold has to get back to a true all-time high. Nothing has to. However, I suspect that given all the money printing in the world, we will see much higher prices for hard assets.”

 

Despite his optimism regarding gold, Rogers is actually more optimistic about other commodities:

 

“Despite Gold’s potential, I think I will make more money in other commodities such as silver, cotton, or coffee — all of which are terribly depressed.”

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