GOLD

[dietcolaaddict]

Good luck big t but i think you are exiting very prematurely from what is clearly the safest assest class to be hold up in, i think there will be some further contractions in the property market in the future and some serious upward movements in the price of gold.Everyones circumstances and aspirations direct a different path.

 

I agree. All set at the moment for a GEIers perfect christmas in the UK:

 

- PMs all well up in $

- $:£ still quite favourable for buying more right now (it can't last much more at 1.68, can it?)

- houses about to crash big-time

 

This Christmas all wise men carry gold, none of that frankincense and myrrh 'tat'.

 

 

[fitkid]

What happened to No 9 and where is the UK?

No 9 ????

UK No 18

 

World official gold holding (March 2009)[8]

 

Rank Country/Organization Gold (tonnes) Gold's share of total forex reserves (%)[8]

 

1 United States 8,133.5 78.9%

2 Germany 3,412.6 71.5%

3 International Monetary Fund 3,017.3 -

4 France 2,487.1 72.6%

5 Italy 2,451.8 66.5%

6 China 1,054.0[10] 0.9%

7 Switzerland 1,040.1 41.1%

8 Japan 765.2 2.2%

10 India 757.7[11] 6%

11 Netherlands 612.5 61.7%

12 European Central Bank 536.9 23.7%

13 Russia 523.7 4.0%

14 Taiwan 423.6 4.2%

15 Spain 416.8 42.5%

16 Portugal 382.5 90.2%

17 Venezuela 363.9 35.5%

18 United Kingdom 310.3 18.7%

19 Lebanon 286.8 30.0%

20 Austria 280.0 50.5%

21 Belgium 227.5 42.5%

22 Algeria 173.6 3.6%

23 Philippines 153.9 12.3%

24 Libya 143.8 4.5%

25 Saudi Arabia 143.0 12.4%

26 Sweden 135.9 14.2%

27 Singapore 127.4 2.2%

28 Bank for International Settlements 125.0 -

29 South Africa 124.7 11.0%

30 Turkey 116.1 4.7%

31 Greece 112.5 92.8%

32 Romania 103.7 8.4%

33 Poland 102.9 5.0%

34 Thailand 87.4 2.2%

35 Australia 79.8 7.3%

36 Kuwait 79.0 11.9%

37 Egypt 75.6 6.4%

38 Indonesia 73.1 4.3%

39 Kazakhstan 72.0 11.6%

40 Denmark 66.5 4.7%

41 Pakistan 65.4 20.3%

42 Argentina 54.7 3.4%

43 Finland 49.1 17.6%

44 Bulgaria 39.9 7.6%

45 West African Economic and Monetary Union 36.5 11.8%

46 Malaysia 36.4 1.2%

47 Slovakia 35.1 81.6%

48 Peru 34.7 3.3%

49 Brazil 33.6 0.5%

50 Bolivia 28.3 10.3%

51 Ecuador 26.3 11.6%

52 Ukraine 26.2 2.0%

53 Syria 25.9 -

54 Morocco 22.0 2.2%

55 Nigeria 21.4 0.9%

56 Belarus 20.3 11.6%

57 Jordan 14.8 5.2%

58 South Korea 14.3 0.1%

59 Cyprus 13.9 29.7%

60 Czech Republic 13.2 0.9%

61 Netherlands Antilles 13.1 31.4%

62 Cambodia 12.4 12.9%

63 Qatar 12.4 2.6%

64 Serbia 12.2 2.3%

65 Laos 8.1 23.1%

66 Latvia 7.7 3.3%

67 El Salvador 7.3 8.2%

68 Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa 7.1 -

69 Guatemala 6.9 3.9%

70 Colombia 6.9 0.8%

71 Macedonia 6.8 7.6%

72 Tunisia 6.8 2.1%

73 Lithuania 5.8 2.3%

74 Ireland 5.5 16.3%

75 Sri Lanka 5.3 3.8%

76 Mongolia 5.2 10.9%

77 Bahrain 4.7 -

78 Bangladesh 3.5 1.6%

79 Mexico 3.4 0.1%

80 Canada 3.4 0.2%

81 Slovenia 3.2 7.2%

82 Aruba 3.1 17.1%

83 Hungary 3.1 0.3%

84 Mozambique 3.0 4.6%

85 Kyrgyzstan 2.6 5.3%

86 Luxembourg 2.3 10.8%

87 Albania 2.2 2.6%

88 Hong Kong 2.1 0.0%

89 Iceland 2.0 1.9%

90 Tajikistan 2.0 -

91 Papua New Guinea 2.0 2.1%

92 Mauritius 1.9 2.4%

93 Trinidad and Tobago 1.9 0.6%

94 Yemen 1.6 0.5%

95 Suriname 1.4 7.0%

96 Cameroon 0.9 -

97 Honduras 0.7 0.7%

98 Paraguay 0.7 0.6%

99 Dominican Republic 0.6 0.7%

100 Gabon 0.4 -

101 Republic of the Congo 0.3 -

102 Chad 0.3 -

103 Central African Republic 0.3 -

104 Uruguay 0.3 0.1%

105 Estonia 0.2 0.1%

106 Chile 0.2 0.0%

107 Malta 0.2 0.8%

108 Costa Rica 0.1 0.0%

 

 

 

 

Gold trusts (Gold exchange-traded funds) Rank Country/Organization Gold

(tonnes) Gold's share

of total

forex reserves (%)[8]

1 SPDR Gold Trust 1,104[12] -

2 iShares Gold Trust 66.9 [13] -

3 Central Fund of Canada 30.2[14] -

4 BullionVault 18.0[15]

[fitkid]

The problem with the gold top callers is that they look at the entirely wrong charts.

 

Show me the top:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/Gold...rium_Price.html

Sublime GF that was sublime not subprime

[G0ldfinger]

Sublime GF that was sublime not subprime

I just try to prevent that people get this gold bull @$$-backwards.

[fitkid]

My take on it

 

1140 (yawn)

1200 mild interest

1500 buckle up!

2000 obvious

3000 mild to moderate interest

4000 reasonable prices approaching

 

Followed shortly thereafter by - "No, I will not exchange my ounce gold coin for your one million (a short time later) one billion (an even shorter time later) one trillion US dollar note - are you mad!"

 

I am glad your working on your edinburgh festival piece at this rate you will be the headlining act.

[njpurser]

I wouldn't bank on the USA (of the UK) having much of the gold they claim to have. The Americans won't allow an audit of Fort Knox.

What's wrong with revaluing gold, then settling foreign debt in gold and enabling a "reset"?

 

Nick

[Schaublin]

What's wrong with revaluing gold, then settling foreign debt in gold and enabling a "reset"?

 

Nick

 

 

Good idea apart from the fact that the debt is owed by the West to the East and rumour has it that the US does not have much gold left.

[G0ldfinger]

Good idea apart from the fact that the debt is owed by the West to the East and rumour has it that the US does not have much gold left.

They could issue paper certificates, then no one will ask for the actual gold! :lol:

[FWIW]

They could issue paper certificates, then no one will ask for the actual gold! :lol:

 

Why don't they just buy GLD etf??? I am sure they have plenty to go round...

[njpurser]

Good idea apart from the fact that the debt is owed by the West to the East and rumour has it that the US does not have much gold left.

Yeah but just imagine...... 500 thousand dollars an ounce......oooooooh.

 

nick

[Pixel8r]

I have been looking at the great long-term point and figure gold chart by the Privateer tonight. It has struck me that we could be on for a rise to the uptrend line, which could take us to a minimum of $1500. Maybe my $1350 target on this run is being too pessimistic.

 

Here's a link to the privateer long term point & figure Gold Chart - Since the 1982 low.

 

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

 

And here my version with the uptrend line.

 

 

This is the way the Privateer is currently looking at things;

 

a lot of people are starting to muse about the current bull market leg getting a bit long in the tooth. In fact, if we compare the current rally with the one which took place after $US Gold's first correction which started in May 2006, we will find that the opposite is the case.

 

…the more recent correction was longer lasting and deeper than its predecessor. So far, Gold has only broken out of that correction for six weeks. After Gold broke out of the first correction in Mid September 2007, it roared higher for the next six MONTHS.

 

 

[Pixel8r]

Found this cool bar chart tonight which has been published by the Aden sisters which shows the average annualised change in the $US gold price on a monthly basis 2001-2008. The pdf below also contains 17 other cool graphs.

 

http://www.adenforecast.com/Forwebsite0609...patibilidad.pdf

 

The next three months look really great with around 30% gain per month, got gold

 

 

 

[FWIW]

Another good read:

 

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=278

 

Quote:

Simply, we are reaching the point of no return. The point where the government’s tried and true method of pushing problems down the road through printing unbacked dollars may well be reaching its limits. And in fact, it may have reached its limits – which is why we’ve seen so little in the way of dollar rallies of late.

 

That’s not to say they won’t occur, but looking at the golden barometer this morning, I see that gold has just broken through to a new level of $1,132 per ounce. And the dollar index (DXY:IND) has just broken through the 75 long-term resistance point… to 74.91 as I write.

 

Bud Conrad, who lives and breathes this stuff – almost literally – now thinks the conditions are there for an actual dollar collapse. While it’s unlikely things will reach the depths pictured in the chart of the German hyperinflation just above, it doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

 

What can’t happen is for the U.S. government to take over the economy and expect it to keep ticking along through a combination of higher taxes and debt monetization.

 

[Pixel8r]

Eric Sprott: Gold Momentum's Picking Up Dramatically

 

Posted Sunday, 15 November 2009

 

Interviewed by Karen Roche, Publisher

 

Although "quantitative easing" (QE) may be propping up the U.S. economy for the time being, it solves nothing. That's how Eric Sprott, Chief Executive Officer & Portfolio Manager of Sprott Asset Management and Chairman of Sprott Money Ltd., sees it. It's not just that QE shoves problems from the private sector into the public sector. It's worse than that, because as Eric tells The Gold Report readers, QE is "just debasing the currency which will eventually lead to hyperinflation." One upside though: "You can just feel the momentum in gold—it's picking up dramatically" and so too are prospects for a plethora of little-known small and mid-cap gold stocks.

 

 

[Pixel8r]

Looking Back at Peak Global Production of...Gold

 

Yesterday the President of the largest gold mining and production company, Barrick Gold, noted that after ten years of declining production it is time to recognize that the world has seen the peak in gold production. To maintain production ore is being mined with increasingly less gold in it. (The grade of the ore, or metal content, defines whether it is profitable to mine.)

 

Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970.

 

The supply crunch has helped push gold to an all-time high, reaching $1,118 an ounce at one stage yesterday.

 

 

[Happy Nihilist]

With the recent move in Silver past its October 2009 high, the short term divergence between Gold and Silver has resolved itself. (On a slightly longer term a divergence still exists as Gold is making new highs but Silver remains below its March 2008 highs, and going back further is well below its all time high of $50/oz). In any case, recent action in the precious metals is looking very strong, so thought I would update one of Ross Clarke's charts as it presents an interesting picture.

 

 

From Chartworks 2009/09/07 LINK

 

The Silver/Gold ratio is approaching overbought territory. In the strongest of years the RSI(14) managed to record levels in the mid-high 80’s (1974, 1979, 1980, 1987, 1988, 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2008). In many other years the RSI of the ratio topped in the 70’s and was followed by a downside correction in the silver price of 12% to 15%. If other technical measurements become excessive then we will use this analysis to assist in determining the depth of the break.

 

 

Update 2009/11/16

 

 

2 ways to slice the same cake? On the one hand, there appears to be a negative divergence between the RSI and recent price action in Gold and Silver. On the other hand, as Ross Clarke's chart illustrates, Gold and Silver usually reach an intermediate top with the Silver:Gold RSI above 70, so it would be unusual for the move in Gold to terminate with an Silver:Gold RSI near 50. In other words, if we use this chart as a road map, there is room for a significant move up in Gold and Silver from present levels.

 

?

[wren]

Another great day for both gold and silver.

 

In these 2 very volatile markets corrections come along fairly frequently especially after fast up moves like this.

 

Anybody willing to stick their neck and call for a sizable correction soon?

 

I certainly see 1000 again as possible but the 18 months consolidation has stored up a great deal of energy for this upthrust. It seems so far to be behaving as Pixel8r's lines imply like to the 2 previous massive upthrusts in '04-'05 and '07-'08.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if it gets to 1250 or even 1350 with only some minor breathers.

 

More lengthy and substantial corrections/sideways behaviour may only come after the energy of this upthrust is fizzled out at fairly higher levels like 1250.

[Schaublin]

Another great day for both gold and silver.

 

In these 2 very volatile markets corrections come along fairly frequently especially after fast up moves like this.

Anybody willing to stick their neck and call for a sizable correction soon?

 

I certainly see 1000 again as possible but the 18 months consolidation has stored up a great deal of energy for this upthrust. It seems so far to be behaving as Pixel8r's lines imply like to the 2 previous massive upthrusts in '04-'05 and '07-'08.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if it gets to 1250 or even 1350 with only some minor breathers.

 

More lengthy and substantial corrections/sideways behaviour may only come after the energy of this upthrust is fizzled out at fairly higher levels like 1250.

 

No, I would not like to stick my neck out but I feel that (using fashion-speak) 1250 is the new 1000

[G0ldfinger]

We need RH and Halcyon back*, otherwise we'll turn into a crowd of gold-blinded lemmings leaping off into the hyper-deflationist abyss (or so I believe RH would formulate it).

 

Should this be impossible, then we could resort to inviting paid government shills who take this role instead. But it's not the same thing, especially not if they're gold-bugs in private (secretively).

 

Does anyone have Merv's or Ben's number? If they paid me properly (Merv or Ben), I might play devil's advocate as well. I'd be good - I've heard ALL the arguments.

 

 

* I'm serious.

[THEBIGMAN]

We need RH and Halcyon back*, otherwise we'll turn into a crowd of gold-blinded lemmings leaping off into the hyper-deflationist abyss (or so I believe RH would formulate it).

 

Should this be impossible, then we could resort to inviting paid government shills who take this role instead. But it's not the same thing, especially not if they're gold-bugs in private (secretively).

 

Does anyone have Merv's or Ben's number? If they paid me properly (Merv or Ben), I might play devil's advocate as well. I'd be good - I've heard ALL the arguments.

 

 

* I'm serious.

Good call GF; a little water on the fire of unbridled enthusiasm isn't a bad thing.

I read this article by the Monevator earlier - I respect this guy's writing (although I don't agree with the article on the whole; I can't see how he's arrived at his conclusion):

-> http://monevator.com/2009/11/14/weekend-re...eak-gold-price/

I'd be more worried when the assorted gold-bear's arguments are more convincing...

[Pixel8r]

Is the Dollar "Good as Tungsten"?

 

 

[FWIW]

Is the Dollar "Good as Tungsten"?

 

Oh dear - the paperbugs are not going to like that...

 

The clue was in the name 'Greenback' - nothing on the back except green ink!

[lyb]

dollar increases in value but this is good news for eurogold investors

 

Closing Euro highest price of 770, as wren predicted.

 

A breakout in euro terms is very important, it will add fuel to the fire making this a global rally,

but could take a couple of months for this to be established, RSI is presently too high.

 

 

 

[FWIW]

Hard Money!

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15115.html

 

Quote

They called it “a relic of the past.” They described its last major bull market surge as an “anomaly.” They said it was a dinosaur of an investment, never to return to the arena of modern finance.

 

Even The Wall Street Journal recently said it’s an investment that pays no interest or dividends and implied that owning it was as good as having a lump of coal in your backyard.

 

[Pixel8r]

Mauritius Buys IMF Gold, Follows India as Metal Soars

 

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Mauritius bought 2 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund, underscoring a drive by central banks to boost holdings as the precious metal trades near a record and the dollar slumps.

 

The $71.7 million sale to the Bank of Mauritius was based on market prices on Nov. 11, the IMF said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. The Reserve Bank of India paid $6.7 billion for 200 tons from the IMF, according to a Nov. 2 statement.

 

Gold has surged this year as the U.S. currency declines and investors seek to protect their wealth. Emerging-market nations, which have amassed stockpiles of foreign-currency reserves since the 1998 financial crisis, have shown increased interest in diversifying out of U.S. assets.

 

“Investors at different levels feel more comfortable” with some gold in their portfolio, said Albert Cheng, Far East managing director at the World Gold Council.

 

The purchase more than doubles the amount of gold held by the Mauritian central bank to 5.69 percent of its total foreign exchange reserves, from 2.34 percent at the end of October, the bank said in an e-mailed statement today. The acquisition partially reverses a decline from the 13 percent of reserves that gold accounted for on Dec. 31, 1979.

 

‘Ultimate Currency’

 

Gold for immediate delivery is headed for a ninth annual gain and touched an all-time high of $1,143.60 an ounce yesterday. The metal, which traded at $1,134.32 at 9:46 a.m. in London, is the “ultimate currency,” Gijsbert Groenewegen, a partner at Gold Arrow Capital Management in New York, said yesterday.

 

The Mauritian purchase is “another signal that emerging- market central banks are looking to increase their foreign- exchange allocation in gold,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., said from Sydney.

 

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the dollar’s value, was little changed today near a 15-month low. The Federal Reserve has cut borrowing costs to an all-time low while the U.S. government boosted spending to combat recession in the world’s top economy, fueling speculation the currency will be debased.

 

“There are a lot of uncertainties in the U.S. dollar and not much confidence in other currencies,” AMP Capital’s Oliver said. “Gold is a viable option.”

 

The IMF sale forms part of a plan to sell a total of 403.3 tons to shore up the bank’s finances and increase lending to low-income nations.

 

Chinese Reserves

 

“The fund is standing ready for an initial period to sell gold directly to central banks and other official holders that may be interested in such sales,” yesterday’s statement said, repeating an earlier commitment.

 

China, the biggest gold producer, has increased reserves 76 percent to 1,054 tons since 2003 and has the fifth-biggest holdings by country, Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in April.

 

The world’s most populous nation may buy some of the gold now being offered by the IMF, Market News International said in September, citing two unidentified government officials.