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Beware the gold in those hills

 

The word out on the street. Bubble territory.

 

One of the toughest decisions for investors is to stay on the sidelines when asset prices are heading upwards. This was true of the tech boom at the start of this decade and the credit bubble behind the great panic of last year.

 

But there are usually clues as to when markets have moved into the realm of fantasy. Take the current boom in gold which saw the bullion price hit a record of $1,140 an ounce in London, helping to spark a rally in mining stocks.

 

Accompanying the upsurge in demand for the yellow metal there are uncomfortable signs of a bubble mentality developing.

 

India led the way by buying up to 22 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund. :lol:

 

So why the current hunger for the yellow stuff? As a reserve currency the dollar is not that attractive at present because interest rate returns are so mean as the US seeks to repair its economy.

 

However, one only has to look at the speed of the payback to the US Treasury by the banks and now General Motors to recognise some mending is taking place.

 

The second fear is a recurrence of inflation as the consequences of low interest rates, quantitative easing and big fiscal deficits unwind. That is a real concern. But if the authorities get their timing right, and withdraw the stimulus in time, the gold price could backtrack as fast as it climbed.

 

Bubbles have a nasty habit of bursting.

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1...gold-hills.html

 

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Should this be impossible, then we could resort to inviting paid government shills who take this role instead. But it's not the same thing, especially not if they're gold-bugs in private (secretively).

When western governments hold such a large portion of their forex reserves as gold (both in the ground, and in the vaults), I suspect you may struggle to convince them to talk its price down.....

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When western governments hold such a large portion of their forex reserves as gold (both in the ground, and in the vaults), I suspect you may struggle to convince them to talk its price down.....

Where have you been over the last ten years that is exactly what they have been doing. Gordon Brown topped them all with selling half of the UK supply at the very bottom on behalf of the cartel.

 

 

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Where have you been over the last ten years that is exactly what they have been doing. Gordon Brown topped them all with selling half of the UK supply at the very bottom on behalf of the cartel.

 

He was probably very busy playing Quake 2 or something...

 

How's the economic modeling coming along msparks? Or are you not allowed to say? Secret squirel and all that!

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I'm hoping for a dip at least back to $1000. Surely it's got to dip?

Jim Sinclair was saying yesterday that the new floor is $1045.

 

2. There is a floor in gold at $1045 where India purchased from the IMF. China is in to "saving face." and therefore more likely to buy the remaining IMF gold at $1044 than to step up in price.

 

Others knowing that would more than likely front run China again.

 

 

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Stansberry: Why I'm surprised gold isn't trading for $5,000

 

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

By Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest:

 

Lots of people realize the government is propping up the banks with their repeated bailouts. But most folks don't understand the real way the government is saving the banks. It's not the shares the feds bought (and paid too much for). It's the whole system of paper money.

 

The government is deliberately keeping short-term interest rates super low, so the banks' funding costs almost disappear. Then, by running a huge budget deficit and spending record amounts of money on domestic programs, the government insures inflation (and longer-term rates) will remain high. The banks make money on the spread between short-term rates and long-term rates.

 

And just to make sure nothing goes wrong, the Fed has promised to buy $1.75 trillion (yes, that's trillion) worth of mortgages, many of which come directly from troubled banks like Citigroup. In short, there's no way these banks can lose.

 

And here's the best part... According to the Congressional Budget Office, this secret plan to save the banks is free. No line item anywhere in the budget accounts for interest-rate manipulation or the Fed's mortgage buying. It's all "free."

 

 

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Jim Sinclair was saying yesterday that the new floor is $1045.

2. There is a floor in gold at $1045 where India purchased from the IMF. China is in to "saving face." and therefore more likely to buy the remaining IMF gold at $1044 than to step up in price.

 

Surely the floor is at INR 49250.85 as the Indians were after all the ones buying it. If the USD falls or gains then the floor moves up and down as perception comes from where you are standing and that gold today would have a floor of INR 52520.42.

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Gold at $5,000 an ounce? Don't disgard it

Gold remains in focus and its price can still explode higher, writes Martin Hutchinson

 

Gold is different from other commodities in many ways. Still, the price of the yellow metal depends on the same three factors as oil or wheat: supply, demand and financial conditions. Put them together, and the 20pc increase since August might only be the beginning.

 

Start with supply. Production from mines totalled 2,414 tonnes in 2008, worth $88bn at the November 16 price. There will be more this year, but less from 2010 onwards. It will take years for new mines to come on stream. Recycling from scrap jewellery and official gold sales were worth $40bn in 2008, but those sources aren’t likely to cough up much more.

 

One central bank has even become a buyer. India recently purchased 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund. If China decided to put 10% of its $2.3 trillion of official reserves into gold, it would need to buy up almost three years’ worth of production, at the current price.

 

Such a big move isn’t likely, but smaller shifts from central banks – selling less – could be enough to move the price, as long as other demand keeps up. That’s likely. The long period of ultra-easy money may not be undermining the monetary system, but many people fear it might. Some of them will buy some more gold, just in case. With yields on government bonds so low, gold looks like cheap insurance.

 

Indeed, financial conditions favour all commodities, gold included. Interest rates are low and banks are more willing to support investors and speculators than to lend to businesses and consumers. Besides, commodities look like a good store of value in the midst of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus in a world of still significant imbalances.

 

When money is easy and demand moves much faster than supply, prices can explode. In 18 months from July 1978, gold went from $185 per ounce to $850. That’s $2,400 in today’s dollars. And interest rates then were much higher than now. A similar price rise from here would bring gold to more than $5,000 per ounce.

 

 

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Gold Rush - the Lines Are Back

 

On Monday, Nov. 16, for the first time since the spring of 2008, so many customers were trying to visit our stores that for a good part of the day the end of the customer line extended outside.

 

Because of the surge in activity 20 months ago, my company had opened a second location in our shopping center just to serve our growing number of customers. In addition, our staff has grown by almost 70 percent since the spring of 2008. Yet we were so busy on Nov. 16 that customers had to wait to be served.

 

A large number of customers were looking to sell gold jewelry, coins and bullion to take advantage of rising prices. The price of silver jumped over five percent to finally pass the $18 barrier. Simultaneously, gold rose more than $20 from the previous Friday’s close to reach another all-time high level (ignoring inflation, of course).

 

It seemed like almost as many customers came in eager to buy – focusing on gold bullion. In weeks past, a lot of potential new customers have come in to our store to ask a lot of questions before buying bullion-priced gold coins and ingots. On Monday, their general attitude was different.

 

They asked what do we have, how much is it, will you take cash, and can I carry it out with me? By early afternoon, our stores were almost bare of larger bullion-priced gold coins and ingots available for immediate delivery.

 

 

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Did you read the rest of your article? :o

 

'According to Kirby, an analyst who has broken significant news stories in the past, Chinese officials investigated and believe the counterfeit gold bars are the work of a well-financed criminal organization. Many arrests have been made.

 

Upon further investigation (and remember that this is all “alleged” as no Chinese official is willing to confirm this on the record) the Chinese learned that about 15 years ago a refinery in the United States manufactured between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400-ounce tungsten blanks. Tungsten has an almost identical specific gravity as gold, so a 400-ounce tungsten bar would be the same size as a 400-ounce gold bar. Subsequently, 640,000 of these bars were gold plated and shipped to Fort Knox where they are still located. Kirby claims that he knows people who possess copies of the shipping documents of these deliveries showing the dates of delivery and the exact weights of each of these bars.

 

The remaining bars were later gold-plated, then apparently sold into the international market. Where they are today is not known, but there are strong suspicions that significant quantities of them are already in bonded warehouses of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and elsewhere as supposedly good delivery gold bars. The alleged counterfeit bars received by the Chinese apparently came directly from the Hong Kong vaults of the LBMA.

 

To the extent that there are any quantities of these counterfeit bars on the market to fulfill paper gold contracts, there is a significant risk that owners of “paper gold” could be in for major losses in the near future'

 

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