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I genuinely welcome these kinds of comments (BTW, there's more than one economist being quoted and all are mainstream). So long as most 'experts' think it's a duff investment we should see a lid kept on retail speculation. This allows the minority to add to their position without worrying that they're caught up in some frenzy. I have no idea of how things will play out but I would not be surprised if gold sold off (maybe even heavily) in the next 6-12 months. Equally I would expect it to bounce back relatively quickly and still believe it will go significantly higher over the next 5 years or so. The idea, to me at least, that central banks/governments are nursing the economy back to health and will remove the stimulus when we're back on our feet is laughable. Here's a link to the BoE minutes - they have no idea what they're doing, no one does. As long as this trend stays in place, I think gold will continue its ascent but equally I do not rule out some sharp pullbacks along the way.

 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmun...t-price-bubble/

this is what happens

 

with experts in charge

 

link

 

And, first, in the economic department. From the early reluctant and careful issues of paper we saw, as an immediate result, improvement and activity in business. Then arose the clamor for more paper money. At first, new issues were made with great difficulty; but, the dyke once broken, the current of irredeemable currency poured through; and, the breach thus enlarging, this currency was soon swollen beyond control. It was urged on by speculators for a rise in values; by demagogues who persuaded the mob that a nation, by its simple fiat, could stamp real value to any amount upon valueless objects. As a natural consequence a great debtor class grew rapidly, and this class gave its influence to depreciate more and more the currency in which its debts were to be paid.[85]

 

The government now began, and continued by spasms to grind out still more paper; commerce was at first stimulated by the difference in exchange; but this cause soon ceased to operate, and commerce, having been stimulated unhealthfully, wasted away.

 

Manufactures at first received a great impulse; but, ere long, this overproduction and overstimulus proved as fatal to them as to commerce. From time to time there was a revival of hope caused by an apparent revival of business; but this revival of business was at last seen to be caused more and more by the desire of far-seeing and cunning men of affairs to exchange paper money for objects of permanent value. As to the people at large, the classes living on fixed incomes and small salaries felt the pressure first, as soon as the purchasing power of their fixed incomes was reduced. Soon the great class living on wages felt it even more sadly.

 

Prices of the necessities of life increased: merchants were obliged to increase them, not only to cover depreciation of their merchandise, but also to cover their risk of loss from fluctuation; and, while the prices of products thus rose, wages, which had at first gone up, under the general stimulus, lagged behind. Under the universal doubt and discouragement, commerce and manufactures were checked or destroyed. As a consequence the demand for labor was diminished; laboring men were thrown out of employment, and, under the operation of the simplest law of supply and demand, the price of labor—the daily wages of the laboring class—went down until, at a time when prices of food, clothing and various articles of consumption were enormous, wages were nearly as low as at the time preceding the first issue of irredeemable currency.

 

The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country; enterprise was deadened and stagnation followed.

 

New issues of paper were then clamored for as more drams are demanded by a drunkard. New issues only increased the evil; capitalists were all the more reluctant to embark their money on such a sea of doubt. Workmen of all sorts were more and more thrown out of employment. Issue after issue of currency came; but no relief resulted save a momentary stimulus, which aggravated the disease. The most ingenious evasions of natural laws in finance which the most subtle theorists could contrive were tried—all in vain; the most brilliant substitutes for those laws were tried; “self-regulating” schemes, “interconverting” schemes—all equally vain.[86] All thoughtful men had lost confidence. All men were waiting; stagnation became worse and worse. At last came the collapse and then a return, by a fearful shock, to a state of things which presented something like certainty of remuneration to capital and labor. Then, and not till then, came the beginning of a new era of prosperity.

 

Just as dependent on the law of cause and effect was the moral development. Out of the inflation of prices grew a speculating class; and, in the complete uncertainty as to the future, all business became a game of chance, and all business men, gamblers. In city centers came a quick growth of stock-jobbers and speculators; and these set a debasing fashion in business which spread to the remotest parts of the country. Instead of satisfaction with legitimate profits, came a passion for inordinate gains. Then, too, as values became more and more uncertain, there was no longer any motive for care or economy, but every motive for immediate expenditure and present enjoyment. So came upon the nation the obliteration of thrift. In this mania for yielding to present enjoyment rather than providing for future comfort were the seeds of new growths of wretchedness: luxury, senseless and extravagant, set in: this, too, spread as a fashion. To feed it, there came cheatery in the nation at large and corruption among officials and persons holding trusts. While men set such fashions in private and official business, women set fashions of extravagance in dress and living that added to the incentives to corruption. Faith in moral considerations, or even in good impulses, yielded to general distrust. National honor was thought a fiction cherished only by hypocrites. Patriotism was eaten out by cynicism.

 

Thus was the history of France logically developed in obedience to natural laws; such has, to a greater or less degree, always been the result of irredeemable paper, created according to the whim or interest of legislative assemblies rather than based upon standards of value permanent in their nature and agreed upon throughout the entire world. Such, we may fairly expect, will always be the result of them until the fiat of the Almighty shall evolve laws in the universe radically different from those which at present obtain.[87]

 

And, finally, as to the general development of the theory and practice which all this history records: my subject has been Fiat Money in France; How it came; What it brought; and How it ended.

 

It came by seeking a remedy for a comparatively small evil in an evil infinitely more dangerous. To cure a disease temporary in its character, a corrosive poison was administered, which ate out the vitals of French prosperity.

 

It progressed according to a law in social physics which we may call the “_law of accelerating issue and depreciation._” It was comparatively easy to refrain from the first issue; it was exceedingly difficult to refrain from the second; to refrain from the third and those following was practically impossible.

 

It brought, as we have seen, commerce and manufactures, the mercantile interest, the agricultural interest, to ruin. It brought on these the same destruction which would come to a Hollander opening the dykes of the sea to irrigate his garden in a dry summer.

 

It ended in the complete financial, moral and political prostration of France-a prostration from which only a Napoleon could raise it.

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Ludwig von mises did he called it the hyperinflationary crack up boom.200px-Ludwig_von_Mises.jpg

 

Inflation Then Hyperinflation

 

A "bumper crop" is one where there is an over-abundance of corn, for example. There is so much corn, that each kernel is worth very little. That's what's happening to the value of the US dollar with the amount of them coming off the printing presses at the Treasury. "The paper currency is a declining asset and as that happens people will convert it to something of tangible worth, such as hard assets. Paper money can be printed with no cost to the politicians." When that happens, prices of raw materials and hard assets will rise in an inflationary environment.

 

"Sooner or later, everyone is going to realize that the only way we can pay back one bond is to issue another one and you have a situation where you're using MasterCard to pay your Visa." That's when Goyette thinks we'll see what Mises called the "crack-up boom," hyperinflation and the demise of the exchange economy.

 

RESET To HoNEST MoNEY DEAD AHEAD!!!!!!! GoT GoLD??????

anyone else ordered goyettes new book

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i like dividend payers

 

link

 

Royal Gold Raises Common Stock Dividend 13% to $0.36 Per Share

 

DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD)(TSX:RGL), a leading precious metals royalty company, today announced that its Board of Directors increased the Company’s annual dividend for its shares of common stock from $0.32 to $0.36, payable on a quarterly basis of $0.09 per share. Royal Gold has steadily increased its annual dividend since it first issued a $0.05 annual payment for calendar year 2000.

 

The Board also declared the dividend of $0.09 per share will be payable on January 15, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on January 4, 2010.

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Pixel8r - you seem to be able to get a reply from James Turk OK - fancy putting this to him?

Just to let you know I have had a response from James Turk on this matter, he has reassured me of the safety of goldmoney bars. He explained a lot more to me but has also asked me to keep his response between us, he doesn't want his name being brought into the middle of controversy.

 

I hope you understand, but I can assure you that GM are well on top of the situation.

 

 

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This is a big story IMO, Paulson is personally putting 250 Million into this fund, so the fund is going to grow to billions, which is going into holes in the ground.

 

Paulson & Co. to launch gold fund

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Paulson & Co., the hedge-fund firm that made billions of dollars betting against subprime-mortgage securities, is starting a gold fund, tapping into investor concern about a weak U.S. dollar and inflation.

 

Paulson will launch the new hedge fund on Jan. 1. It will invest in gold stocks and gold-related derivatives. John Paulson, who heads the firm, will throw in a chunk of his own money in the vehicle, according to a person familiar with the matter.....

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No surprises for guessing who's behind this article.....DT's Ambrose Evans Pritchard.

 

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'

 

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

 

In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

 

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

 

'Debt levels risk another crisis' "As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.

 

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010. [Odd comment, weaker USD and oil at $50??]

 

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.

 

(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case).

 

The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," it said.

 

Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.

 

If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.

 

The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.

 

SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.

 

Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone. However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less, for political reasons.

 

SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.

 

Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...l-collapse.html

 

 

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Beware the gold in those hills

 

The word out on the street. Bubble territory.

 

One of the toughest decisions for investors is to stay on the sidelines when asset prices are heading upwards. This was true of the tech boom at the start of this decade and the credit bubble behind the great panic of last year.

 

But there are usually clues as to when markets have moved into the realm of fantasy. Take the current boom in gold which saw the bullion price hit a record of $1,140 an ounce in London, helping to spark a rally in mining stocks.

 

Accompanying the upsurge in demand for the yellow metal there are uncomfortable signs of a bubble mentality developing.

 

India led the way by buying up to 22 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund. :lol:

 

So why the current hunger for the yellow stuff? As a reserve currency the dollar is not that attractive at present because interest rate returns are so mean as the US seeks to repair its economy.

 

However, one only has to look at the speed of the payback to the US Treasury by the banks and now General Motors to recognise some mending is taking place.

 

The second fear is a recurrence of inflation as the consequences of low interest rates, quantitative easing and big fiscal deficits unwind. That is a real concern. But if the authorities get their timing right, and withdraw the stimulus in time, the gold price could backtrack as fast as it climbed.

 

Bubbles have a nasty habit of bursting.

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1...gold-hills.html

 

Maxim in law who allows themselves to be DECIEVED will be DECIEVED

 

Patrick-Swayze.jpg

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Double Post because your worth it!

 

 

Another must read! :lol:

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15143.html

 

Quote

 

Where are the Deflation Knuckleheads who tended to dominate the web journals last spring and summer, in incredible dense vapid clueless fashion??? What a tremendously misguided group.

They follow religiously the deteriorating economies, miss the twin storm, ignore the power of the unprecedented monetary inflation, and somehow overlook the entire global movement if not revolt against the USDollar in a grand Paradigm Shift. They represent the worst economists in the alternative media on web journals. Their tunnel vision on the falling asset price effect left them vulnerable to missing a tsunami on their own doorstep, incredibly. They still do not offer an explanation of why crude is at the $80 price level again. Supplies of oil are nowhere as great as the false USGovt statistics indicate, but the entire world is hedging at the same time against the US$ with oil assets.

 

and

 

In 1964 the USGovt introduced the zinc dimes clad with silver. They at least admitted the debauchery publicly. Now pre-1964 silver coins are all considered different, and valued differently too, higher. Rome committed the same coinage fraud 1900 years ago. Their Empire went bust as the city burned almost concurrently. Ayn Rand is a guiding light for Alan Greenspan, the enabling destroyer of the US banking system, destroyer of the US household archipelago, and dispatcher of the US industrial base to Asia. He is the hero icon worshipped by Wall Street. The irony is thick, that his career was spent following Old Europe orders that delivered the slow motion coup de grace to the American Empire.

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Goldmoney (GM) is the best place to store your bullion outside of your own property, but of course storing it at home presents a new set of challenges. As far as I am concerned GM and JT are honourable and have positioned themselves for the worst case scenario. My only criticism is they do not have enough vaults around the world, but as I understand it, JT is looking into an establishing an Asian vault.

 

There are 8 advantages to GM::

1) You don't have to secure your own bullion

2) You can buy/sell silver and gold

3) You can swap between gold and silver at a discounted rate to selling and buying the same metal, this allows you to play the G:S ratio

4) You can buy/sell at the press of a button 24/7

5) The business operates outside of UK law and the bullion can be stored in Zurich, London or NY.

6) You can pay another person using goldgrams

7) You can extract your holdings in to small physical denominations of gold (100 gram, 1000 gram and 400 ounce bars) through Bairds

8) Playing the FOREX game on their website

 

If you only have £10K to put into gold, I would suggest having it all in physical, if you had £50K then perhaps split it 50/50. IMO you need to ask yourself if you think there will be a global economic collapse and place your bets according to your needs in such an event. There is no right or wrong answer to this...

 

There are only 2 risks I can imagine, the first, there is a paper trail to your wealth and technically the gold could be confiscated, conversely they (zee government) would find it much harder to find your gold after your last boating accident... Secondly, as any `unspent` money is stored in a non-UK bank you are not covered by the FSCS should that bank (Lloyds) collapse.

 

Please could you give us your views on Goldmoney?

 

Can you suggest a sensible ratio (Physical/Goldmoney)?

 

If not, an early heads up on any possible problems you foresee arising in the future would very much appreciated.

 

p.s all feel free to express your views. thanks

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Who said history repeats itself?

 

Here's an article from 1965 which is even more relevant today.

 

"The time has long since passed, he told a press conference, when the currencies of any one or two nations can enjoy "this signal privilege, this signal advantage." The present-day world, said De Gaulle, needs "an indisputable monetary base, and one that does not bear the mark of any particular country. In truth, one does not see how one could really have any standard criterion other than gold."

 

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/...40572-1,00.html

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Hi CGNAO!

 

Please could you give us your views on Goldmoney?

 

Can you suggest a sensible ratio (Physical/Goldmoney)?

 

If not, an early heads up on any possible problems you foresee arising in the future would very much appreciated.

 

p.s all feel free to express your views. thanks

 

This was posted by CGNAO on www.moneysavingexpert.com;

 

11-12-2004, 1:25 AM #5

cgnao

MoneySaving Convert

 

Join Date: Dec 2004

Post Count: 50

Thanked 9 Times in 8 Posts

 

Default Re: Buying in to Gold

Best coins are sovereigns, then britannias, as they are UK legal tender and as such exempt from capital gain tax. Effectively they are UK cash. Non-UK coins (as krugerrands or american eagles) and gold bars are not UK legal tender and as such they are liable to capital gain tax.

 

At the current spot price of £226/ounce,

 

9 off gold sovereigns will cost you (considering an average dealer's margin of 10%) around £535. The intrinsic gold content would be £478.

 

2 off 1 ounce britannias would cost you £524. The intrinsic gold value would be £452.

 

If you bought 100 sovereigns (in excess of £5000) you would probably be able to negotiate the dealer's margin down to around 5%.

 

However, given that you only intend to invest such a small amount, you might be better off using www.goldmoney.com, which is the ONLY, I repeat the ONLY, and I repeat again the ONLY way to invest safely in gold online. I have had an account with them for the last year and are very satisfied. They charge 3% buying commission and 0.1 gold grams (about 70p) monthly storage fee.

 

Remember gold is a safe haven asset. Its price goes to the moon in financial crises, which is when institutions are likely to go into trouble (debt bubble, does this ring a bell?) and may fail. Therefore stay away, I repeat STAY AWAY, from gold futures, exchange traded funds, unallocated gold accounts and certificates. They are paper gold: you give up your cash and become a gold creditor. If the institution is insolvent, you lose your money AND receive no gold.

 

As a side note, it is an excellent time to buy gold. It will outperform any other asset class in the financially turbulent years to come. Protect yourself.

 

ONLY three times...I wonder if he works for them (or used to)?

 

CGNAO is James Turk!

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You are truly illuminated good sir,we are just seeing the undercard at the momment building upto the main event CHINA Versus WoRLD X1.As for the gold questions when is the insanity going to stop and the conscious awakening begin.

 

Live spot prices say all that needs saying:- WAKE UP !!!!!!!!!!

Price/oz Gold

Chg Gold

Chg%

US Dollar -- 11/16-14:22 -- -- 1141.80 +23.30 +2.08%

Australian Dollar +0.67% 11/16-14:20 1.0646 0.9394 1215.82 +17.07 +1.42%

Brazilian Real +0.76% 11/16-14:21 1.7036 0.5870 1945.68 +25.66 +1.34%

British Pound +1.02% 11/16-14:21 0.5934 1.6853 677.67 +7.18 +1.07%

Canadian Dollar +0.68% 11/16-14:22 1.0452 0.9568 1193.67 +16.61 +1.41%

Chinese Yuan -0.02% 11/16-04:33 6.8227 0.1466 7793.57 +163.61 +2.14%

Euro +0.63% 11/16-14:21 0.6661 1.5013 760.89 +11.10 +1.48%

Hong Kong Dollar +0.00% 11/16-13:55 7.7545 0.1290 8856.41 +183.01 +2.11%

Indian Rupee +0.40% 11/16-13:55 46.0050 0.0217 52546.91 +883.40 +1.71%

Japanese Yen +0.90% 11/16-14:22 88.8600 0.0113 101495.89 +1200.00 +1.20%

Mexican Pesos +0.50% 11/16-14:21 12.9602 0.0772 14803.14 +234.68 +1.61%

Russian Ruble +0.82% 11/16-14:20 28.6310 0.0349 32699.47 +410.27 +1.27%

S.African Rand +0.63% 11/16-14:22 7.3721 0.1356 8420.36 +122.76 +1.48%

Swiss Franc +0.69% 11/16-14:22 1.0054 0.9947 1148.41 +16.10 +1.42%

Can you tell me where you get the gold spot price in different currencies? I am particularly interested in HKD as I live there. Cheers.

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I have no idea of how things will play out but I would not be surprised if gold sold off (maybe even heavily) in the next 6-12 months. Equally I would expect it to bounce back relatively quickly and still believe it will go significantly higher over the next 5 years or so. The idea, to me at least, that central banks/governments are nursing the economy back to health and will remove the stimulus when we're back on our feet is laughable. Here's a link to the BoE minutes - they have no idea what they're doing, no one does. As long as this trend stays in place, I think gold will continue its ascent but equally I do not rule out some sharp pullbacks along the way.

 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmun...t-price-bubble/

Some good comments here and your view is similar to Martin Armstrongs as evidenced in his recent article on gold.

 

He stated that if gold makes new highs after November then we can expect a rally going into April 16, 2010 at which time there would be a sell-off (my target $1380) . With a big change in trend in Oct/Nov 2010 with a 12 month trend afterwards (upwards in this scenario).

 

If the market is unable to make fresh highs after November then there will be a decline going into April, followed by an explosive rally into October 2010. This would be followed by a downward trend for 12 months.

 

So a temporary high sometime in 2010-11 (April 16 2010 or Oct/Nov. high). Remember his economic confidence model signals major turn dates but does not specify if they are highs or lows.

 

So if this November Gold continues we are off to the races until next April.

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Shamelessly pinched from HPC, SocGen Sounds The Alarm, Again. Either cgnao was 100% correct guaranteed, or he just got a job with socgen!

Governments may only have one choice, and that is to hyperinflate their way out of debt by simply printing money. When money is printed, everything loses value, including debt. Welcome to Weimar.

 

Government bonds would be purchased by central banks just as has been the case in quantitative easing measures to date. Yields would fall to near zero on longer dates. Gold would absolutely soar. Food would become very expensive.

 

I repeat: this is not a prediction, this is a warning.

 

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp...307609A2A4309B3

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What are the chances of the central bankers successfully inflicting a double top @ 700 GBP? What mechanisms do central banks employ to try and cap the gold price in non-dollar currencies?

Why would anyone care about a small currency of a lesser important (only money-shuffling) economy? GBP is irrelevant (except for some on here).

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So expect resistance and games @ 700 GBP but keep accumulating.

 

What are the chances of the central bankers successfully inflicting a double top @ 700 GBP? What mechanisms do central banks employ to try and cap the gold price in non-dollar currencies?

They sell paper gold short via their cartel bullion banks, as they have been doing for years. They are starting to be overrun currently though as can be seen by the backwardation which in now in both gold and silver.

 

 

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Maybe people don't hang around investment forums like this, but quite a few of my colleagues are talking about gold (not through my prompting). They're not buying gold because they don't really know how to or they believe it is not something the average saver invests in. I find it strange that most people in this country are conditioned to believe that their savings are better handled by advisors and experts. There appears to be some kind of comfort in letting other people take risk with their money.

 

And lets face it, the general standard of the advisers is pretty piss poor. The blind leading the blind.

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